Midwest getting new aircrafts????

[FlyWolf]

uh, that's "f@#$" life.

, I forgot to run the spell check

 

[b82rez]

Wait... another aircraft order. What about Skyway's ERJs. Those are still coming, right?

 

[deadstick]

Wait... another aircraft order. What about Skyway's ERJs. Those are still coming, right?

I heard Airbus, as a matter of fact Airbus is in town talking to Midwest.

Actually, their plan was to park the 80's, put the replacements on the Skyway certificate, and pay the new crews at the old 1900 rates.

 

[b82rez]

Although I wouldn't be surprised if Tim still had a business plan in mind that hinges on the DO-728 program.

 

[deadstick]

Although I wouldn't be surprised if Tim still had a business plan in mind that hinges on the DO-728 program.

He's always trying to stay 5 steps behind the rest of the industry.

 

[hey]

Actually, their plan was to park the 80's, put the replacements on the Skyway certificate, and pay the new crews at the old 1900 rates.

Ha Ha! Does that mean we'll get our jobs back?

 

[deadstick]

Ha Ha! Does that mean we'll get our jobs back?

Of course, we'll get preferential interviews.

 

[maxblast72]

my source for the AAI MKE performance is MEH management, take it for what it's worth. from MZ (the MEH VP of Flt Ops) right before I was furloughed was that AAI was "losing their shirt" in the MKE market and that Spirit was "hurting quite badly". our MEC also stated that MEH management was "bragging" to them about AAI's MKE numbers: it was the only time during their meeting that TH spoke and where they exhibited any enthusiasm.

I don't know how your management would have any idea what our yields are out of MKE. I know you have Midwest employees on our concourse counting how many people are getting on the flights, but that doesn't say anything about what ticket prices they are paying.

Everytime I check out the loads of MKE on ftweb while at work, it appears the west coast flight (including redeyes) all have over 110 people. BOS, LGA, and DCA are lighter but usually around 70-80. I would imagine that our CASM on the 737's is at least 30% cheaper than Midwest's, so if we are loosing our shirts, you guys are loosing your pants as well.

But like you said, we will see whether we add flights or reduce flights. Or maybe, we will just come in and wreck your yields during the profitable summer months every year and let you guys stumble through the winter as we redeploy our fleet to the Florida routes.

 

[CitationLover]

I don't know how your management would have any idea what our yields are out of MKE. I know you have Midwest employees on our concourse counting how many people are getting on the flights, but that doesn't say anything about what ticket prices they are paying.

Everytime I check out the loads of MKE on ftweb while at work, it appears the west coast flight (including redeyes) all have over 110 people. BOS, LGA, and DCA are lighter but usually around 70-80. I would imagine that our CASM on the 737's is at least 30% cheaper than Midwest's, so if we are loosing our shirts, you guys are loosing your pants as well.

But like you said, we will see whether we add flights or reduce flights. Or maybe, we will just come in and wreck your yields during the profitable summer months every year and let you guys stumble through the winter as we redeploy our fleet to the Florida routes.

west coast flights traditionally are LOW YIELD routes that barely make any money (what routes have AAI dumped lately, oh yeah west coast ones to LAS). PHX and LAS you are primarily competing with LCC and not us as the market makers.

BOTH carriers are struggling with the current environment. bragging about coming in and "wrecking" our summer yields is suicide in this environment, but I guess AAI can issue additional convertible bonds to generate much needed cash. redeploying to "florida" routes ain't good either: florida is another LOW YIELD market as most vacation ones are.

and our management (as yours wrt to ours) has a GREAT idea what your yields are. we simply match your walmart undercut prices and can directly witness and compare. i should hope your CASM is lower than ours as your airline is a lot younger than ours. when your airline gets to our current age (24) and has the seniority of our workers then you can directly compare CASM's. Fuel CASM is driving the problems these days anyways.

 

[CitationLover]

for simple comparison purposes.

just looking at MKE-LGA for a fare for 7/3 and returning 7/6.
AAI $178 (web special), $368.50 (adv coach)
MEH $333.


now MKE-BOS:
AAI $266
MEH $274.

now MKE-DCA:
AAI $222.50 (web special), $297.50 (adv coach)
MEH $424

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Also those fares are before taxes and fees

 

[Kharma Police]

for simple comparison purposes.

just looking at MKE-LGA for a fare for 7/3 and returning 7/6.
AAI $178 (web special), $368.50 (adv coach)
MEH $333.


now MKE-BOS:
AAI $266
MEH $274.

now MKE-DCA:
AAI $222.50 (web special), $297.50 (adv coach)
MEH $424

I would not be surprised if we scale back. I never had a good feeling about expanding in MKE. I was always skeptical of the argument of drawing passengers from northern Chicago (too close to ORD). Thankfully, we only have four leased gates to deal with, not a whole airline.

 

[CitationLover]

Also those fares are before taxes and fees

actually the AAI ones are after taxes since they quote their fares per leg (i pulled the total after selecting each leg) and the MEH ones are before taxes so the fare differential is even more than depicted.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Thankfully, we only have four leased gates to deal with, not a whole airline.

BF said we dodge a bullet by not buying MEDX.

 

[scarlet]

How will TPG get their 20-25% return when they bought for what 15-17.00 a share and now MIdwest is proably at 2.00, if it was still listed....

Well I just look at the mgt. types and see Midwest turn to 50 seaters-and laying off people and getting rid of the 80s...and they say Airtran is losing their shirt? Which all that could be Airtran anytime....

MKE station mgr, says AT is very happy with the flights in MKE.??

 

[maxblast72]

Fuel CASM is driving the problems these days anyways.

Your right, Fuel CASM is now approaching 50% of total CASM. This just increases our advantage as the 737 burns the same amount of gas as the 717 but yet carries 38 more passengers than your 717's (and I won't even begin to compare our 737's with your MD-80's).

 

[maxblast72]

for simple comparison purposes.

just looking at MKE-LGA for a fare for 7/3 and returning 7/6.
AAI $178 (web special), $368.50 (adv coach)
MEH $333.


now MKE-BOS:
AAI $266
MEH $274.

now MKE-DCA:
AAI $222.50 (web special), $297.50 (adv coach)
MEH $424

How does your management know how many seats were bought at discount and how many were bought at full fare business class? I think the only one that know the true avg fare on our routes out of MKE are our bean counters in MCO. I don't even think you will find that information in our second quarter earnings release when it comes out.

 

[maxblast72]

You also have to ask how much of this traffic is MKE origination or destination. I believe our BOS, LGA, and DCA flights are timed to connect with our west coast service and vice versa. That means the bigger markets we are actually going after our big west coast cities to the big northeast cities with origination MKE traffic as gravy on top.

 

[FlyWolf]

Back to Midwest getting a replacement aircrafts, its almost certain that it will be the Airbus now, I think any 737 that becomes available are going to (and I am not sure) SWA and AA who wants to replace the 80's as fast as they can.

 

[maxblast72]

BOTH carriers are struggling with the current environment. bragging about coming in and "wrecking" our summer yields is suicide in this environment, but I guess AAI can issue additional convertible bonds to generate much needed cash. redeploying to "florida" routes ain't good either: florida is another LOW YIELD market as most vacation ones are.

and our management (as yours wrt to ours) has a GREAT idea what your yields are. we simply match your walmart undercut prices and can directly witness and compare. i should hope your CASM is lower than ours as your airline is a lot younger than ours. when your airline gets to our current age (24) and has the seniority of our workers then you can directly compare CASM's.

Why wait 24 years to compare CASM's. The battle is now in 2008 for market share in MKE. The only thing that matters in this battle is Airtran's 15 year CASM vs Midwest's 24 year CASM. And Airtran can be profitable at a lower yield than Midwest due to our lower CASM.

We also have enough established routes to redeploy our aircraft to the routes that suit the season. Airtran is a very nimble airline in this respect. We don't stick with certain cities year round because they are not profitable year round.