Growth will continue over the next 2 years, after that who knows. With 129 airplanes and 4.3 crew per airplane, I'm guessing that there will be at least 555 captains by the end of 2005.
As far as predicting what the most junior captain will be at the end of 2005, that is difficult to do as many factors come into play.
Based of 4.3 crews per airplane, we'll just assume that there will be a total of 555 captains and everyone that is able to upgrade (ie has the time) does. During the next two years there will be attrition. 3 pilots leaving a month, due to other jobs and firing, would be 72 by the end of 2005. There are also pilots that won't have the time to upgrade (mostly GIA, but others as well) maybe 50 of these. This would make seniority number 677 today able to upgrade within the next two years.
To further lower the number, there are FO's that don't want to upgrade. Look at the FO list now and see how many are able to upgrade, but don't want to. I'll assume that there will be 30 FO's that choose not to upgrade. That would move todays seniority number to 707.
I think that attrition will pick up over the next two years, but don't know how many FO's will or will not have the time in the next tww years.
My prediction is that the pilots around 730 right now will be able to upgrade by the end of 2005.
As to predicting to most junior line holder, that is even harder. Just look at the past six months. Reserve coverage has been from 30% to 10%. Also the quality of the junior lines varies every month. Some pilots would rather have a commutable reserve line than a non-commutable line.
When we do get a new contract they will have to upgrade and hire more as well due to changes in work rules. They can't continue with 4.3 crews per airplane for ever.
There is also a possibility that we will get more airplanes in 2006. NWA still has options for 175 CRJ's. Even if we don't get more airplanes, attrition will not stop when deliveries stop. There will still be upgrades.
The pilots that are being hired now will be able to upgrade, it just might take a few more years.