maybe a real pilot shortage in 2020 ?

satpak77

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What is anyones guess the "pilot shortage" will be in 2020, as far as the majors?

2020 is a cool round number, I just picked it, plus it is understood as perfect vision, so that is cool too. :p

ANYWAY, the MySpace generation of today (age 15 to 25) is not exactly clamoring for pilot jobs or spending $20K at ATP-R-US to get their ratings, at least much less than in generations past.

Mostly gone is the dream of flying heavy iron to Europe, RON with hot FAs, and retiring as a heavy captain, after having made captain 7 years after indoc.

With that said, do you think we may actually have a pilot shortage in 2020?
 

jonjuan

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ANYWAY, the MySpace generation of today (age 15 to 25) is not exactly clamoring for pilot jobs or spending $20K at ATP-R-US to get their ratings, at least much less than in generations past.

Mostly gone is the dream of flying heavy iron to Europe, RON with hot FAs, and retiring as a heavy captain, after having made captain 7 years after indoc.
Says who? As long as a few major airlines/cargo companies have positions which pay $150K a year, there will be no lack of supply. All one needs to get a regional job is a few hundred hours instructing in a 150 and a degree at a State U.
 

Propsync

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Coin flip.

I got out last year. I expected it would be 10 years before the 'next step' was attainable. After 10 more years at my current job, I can't imagine leaving to start all over at the bottom anywhere. I suspect I'm not alone. So let's say 2017.
 

whymeworry?

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There will NEVER be a pilot shortage, ever. I have been telling people this for 15 years.

There will also never be a shortage of flight shcools who are quick to sell the dream of a $250,000 airline Captain job with 20 days off per month. Those same schools manipulate the media and aviation bodies to propagate programs like MPL and age 65. Hence there will never be a pilot shortage.

Don't beleive the hype.
 

Tail Gunner Joe

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There always has, and always wil be a pilot shortage.
(coming soon)

((in the next couple of years))


((( ...or so. )))
 

maxcackel

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And the flight school's are more like 50-60k not 20k. Some of the F.O. I fly with coming out of a large school like E.R. have 150-200k in debt. The interest alone is 600-700 a month, how will they pay that off.
 

luckytohaveajob

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There will never be a pilot shortage.

In the extremely unlikely event one of the desirable flying jobs does not have 10,000 resumes on file, they will simply lower there standards till they get 10,000 resumes on file.

In the sixties there was not a pilot shortage. Yes good companies were hiring 250 hour pilots but the classes were filled with as many bodies as needed and there was no shortage or limit to growth.

The standards just get lowered and the classes get filled with less competitive candidates. But as the overall standards go down, the lower standards become even more competitive because then key items of employment become less quantitative and more qualitative which are much harder to define and determine.

THERE WILL NEVER BE A PILOT SHORTAGE!
 

Captain X

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It doesn't matter. The Mayan calendar ends in 2012.

But Kit Darby did say there would be a pilot shortage in 2011 so you should sign up for AirINC.
 
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~~~^~~~

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The interest alone is 600-700 a month, how will they pay that off.
That's the cool thing now. Buy a house, don't pay for it. Buy a car, don't pay for it. Get and education? Heck, student loan default rates were huge BEFORE it became cool not to pay your debts. Defaulting on loans for flight training is like old school now.


I'm thinking of buying a G650 and Marble floored hangar to put it in and pay myself $1,000,000,000 a year to be Chief Pilot. Citibank calls these loans "assets."

BTW Citi stock down 50% this week!
 

mrebuck

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Yes!

That’s the American dream baby!!! Sub-prime mortgages and credit card debt!
 

SpauldingSmails

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There probably will be a pilot shortage, unfortunately congress will approve "Age 70" the day before it happens.
 

JoeMerchant

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That's the cool thing now. Buy a house, don't pay for it. Buy a car, don't pay for it. Get and education? Heck, student loan default rates were huge BEFORE it became cool not to pay your debts. Defaulting on loans for flight training is like old school now.


I'm thinking of buying a G650 and Marble floored hangar to put it in and pay myself $1,000,000,000 a year to be Chief Pilot. Citibank calls these loans "assets."

BTW Citi stock down 50% this week!
Don't worry Fins...There is a bailout coming to a town near you.....

Bailouts-R-Us.....
 

Paul R. Smith

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Free Beer Tommorrow
 

whatitdoing?

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It doesn't matter. The Mayan calendar ends in 2012.

But Kit Darby did say there would be a pilot shortage in 2011 so you should sign up for AirINC.

End of the world in 2012. Like he says above, interesting stuff from that Mayan calendar.
 

SpauldingSmails

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End of the world in 2012. Like he says above, interesting stuff from that Mayan calendar.
Was, "Spanish come to practically wipe Mayans out" on the calendar as well?

Guess they missed that one.
 

Andy

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There will never be a pilot shortage.

In the extremely unlikely event one of the desirable flying jobs does not have 10,000 resumes on file, they will simply lower there standards till they get 10,000 resumes on file.

In the sixties there was not a pilot shortage. Yes good companies were hiring 250 hour pilots but the classes were filled with as many bodies as needed and there was no shortage or limit to growth.

The standards just get lowered and the classes get filled with less competitive candidates. But as the overall standards go down, the lower standards become even more competitive because then key items of employment become less quantitative and more qualitative which are much harder to define and determine.

THERE WILL NEVER BE A PILOT SHORTAGE!
Don Carty, AMR's former CEO, pretty much made that exact same statement a couple of decades ago, including the part about changing standards to meet available supply.
 

scoreboardII

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Was, "Spanish come to practically wipe Mayans out" on the calendar as well?
Practically? How about did.
Anyway, there will be a pilot shortage when 20,000 current pilots get sick of this crap game and walk away.
 

hoover

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There have been pilot shortages. Just a year ago regionals were hiring anyone with a CPL and a pulse
I know (of) a man who, with only a CPL and no instrument rating, was offered a job at UAL on the condition he get his instrument rating. He did, and they did. You never know what could happen. God knows I wouldn't become a professional aviator with the way things are going.
 
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