Mainline hiring outlook bad for regional pilots?

[bizicmo]

regional jobs account for small fraction of total airline jobs in the us. give it time, you will soon be somewhere even if you have to pry the yoke off their 65 year old hands. One thing is for sure, it's going to be pretty bad the in near future. And look of a reduction in 737s and airby but an increase in large Regional Jets.

small fraction? 50% of the domestic market is a small fraction.

 

[PCL_128]

The hiring trend actually looks pretty good. American has a lot of furloughed pilots, but almost all of them are approaching 10 years on furlough, and 75% or more will probably never come back. Delta will be hiring like crazy for years to come, with some years approaching 1,000 retirements. The average USAirways pilot is in his mid-50s. AirTran has 52 deliveries scheduled over the next 6 years. JetBlue also has many deliveries scheduled. Block hours are up significantly at FDX, and will only increase as the economy improves.

Things aren't as bad as you think.

 

[bizicmo]

I don't think airtran will work out the same but didn't skybus have something like 50 deliveries scheduled. Just saying things could change.

 

[SEVEN]

Delta: Hiring compass pilots, 100 mesaba, the rest will probably be military buddies and minorities

AA: Poorly run with tons of furloughs to be recalled, just took 200 eagle pilots

CO/UA: Must hire all the UA furloughs before street hiring begins again

AS: If they grow, it will be very slowly.

B6: Just hired

UPS: Furloughing

Fedex: Already has a pool, and hundreds of military buddies waiting to apply

Virgin: 5000+ hours for most applicants

WN: Looking to get 737-800's, may need fewer pilots in the future

Frontier: They're screwed

Spirit: A regional with airbuses

Any others?

Don't be so negative. You're forgetting about the upcoming pilot shortage.

 

[sunlitpath]

Get a job

 

[bizicmo]

Don't be so negative. You're forgetting about the upcoming pilot shortage.

And the upcoming hiring boom. Make sure to tell all the comair people that were told they were going to be laid off.

 

[CX880]

small fraction? 50% of the domestic market is a small fraction.

thats flying, not jobs thats why you work 80% of the year as a regional pilot

plus mainline pilots fly under different aircraft staffing levels, in some cases many more dozens than the 5 to 10 per of regional operators.

 

[P38JLightning]

Mainline is a staffing agency too. Use your brain. Mainline pilots think they "own" everything but the fact remains the shareholders via management dictate what happens.

Even according to that same logic, those almighty shareholders willing chose to ink agreements with the mainline pilot groups that very much do place ownership into their hands. Even when a contract "expires" it is still 100% in force, in perpetuity, up until self help begins (which is very, very rare) and even then it rarely leads to the shareholders or management "taking it back" from them. In any other case besides self help, the mainline groups 100% OWN all of their flying except what they chose to outsource or RENT for whatever shortsighted reason and they are always free to take it back, provided they can bargain for it or even care to (those bargaining credit cookies sure are tasty to the top 51%).

 

[P38JLightning]

Delta: Hiring compass pilots, 100 mesaba, the rest will probably be military buddies and minorities

AA: Poorly run with tons of furloughs to be recalled, just took 200 eagle pilots

CO/UA: Must hire all the UA furloughs before street hiring begins again

AS: If they grow, it will be very slowly.

B6: Just hired

UPS: Furloughing

Fedex: Already has a pool, and hundreds of military buddies waiting to apply

Virgin: 5000+ hours for most applicants

WN: Looking to get 737-800's, may need fewer pilots in the future

Frontier: They're screwed

Spirit: A regional with airbuses

Any others?

Your logic and numbers is a valid "big picture" but only for the short term. There probably won't be a massive, industry hiring blitz for 2011 for exactly the reasons you illustrate.

However age 65 is coming in full force (and a large amount will chose or be forced out for other reasons prior to then anyway) not to mention ambitious expansion plans for VX and B6. Even the large number of CO/UA furloughs barely equates to a year or barely two of their impending mandatory retirements. DL will see their retirements start at a trickle in 2011 and build rapidly to a massive outflow well prior to the end of the decade. AA is a bit more behind both, but their numbers will be massive as well. And don't forget about USAir. Their retirement numbers/percentages are simply staggering. SWA's will probably only hire for growth for a little while, and there may or may not be any growth, but I doubt the −800 will have that big of an impact and they have a more than a few pilots that will face mandatory retirement in the coming years as well. Not sure about the cargo guys though.

There will be plenty of opportunities to not only get hired by the airlines you mentioned but hired with significant movement beneath you as well. The gold rush might not hit full force in 2011 but it will be here soon. That doesn't mean "pilot shortage" in the sense of there are physically no pilots to fly planes. But it WILL mean pilots with several thousand hours, an ATP and maybe some turb PIC, and any resume above that, will be playing in a very target rich job market in the coming years.

Especially those with 4 year degrees. :smash:

 

[SpauldingSmails]

Any others?

Well, if US Airways can continue its inexplicable persistence as an airline, they should be sending thousands of pilots to golfing communities in the next few years.