FlyBoeingJets said:
Lowecur,
Thanks for giving it your best shot guessing what will happen. Maybe '05 will be better for you.
Low blow there FBJ.
I remember reading, "SWA stock will be in the single digits."
Did I say that? 
I still don't think that will happen, but the stock did stagnate in '04. I predict its upward rise in '05.
I think you are probably right.
Back to the July '04 article you reference. Note it was before the paycuts at Northwest, Delta, and recent cuts proposed at USAir and UAL. Your 33% advantage won't last.
I believe the article was referring the F9, FL, and WN. I don't see any of them matching Jetblue's cost per seat in the near future. Delta and Mesa worked out an EMB 170's deal to put pressure on Comair/ASA (read screw your wholly owned subs.)
I wasn't aware that Mesa was a sub of DL. I assume you mean Republic. Yes, seat cost advantage and ergomomics will be negated at this level and for these carriers. Overall CASM's will remain high until the 100 seater scope is approved, the Pension issue is dealt with, and a reduction in fleet types is accomplished (4 is what Grinstein is looking at). Then they all will need to recoup brand loyalty. This could be their biggest hurdle.
SWA will not follow the airline rule of raising wages and sticking with "Max pay until the last day". They will work out a competitive advantage somehow. If I am wrong then it will be as Pete from SWA schedule planning said, "We already have too many aircraft." If SWA does it right, "We can comfortably handle the aircraft on order."
Regards,
FBJ
Here's an article in the Sun-Sentinel this morning questioning whether DL should even own a regional:
The glitch that stole Christmas lingers
By John Nolan
The Associated Press
January 1, 2005
HEBRON, Ky. · Even after suffering an embarrassing and costly computer failure on Christmas that stranded thousands of fliers, regional carrier Comair remains an important asset for Delta Air Lines, feeding it passengers from small airports nationwide.
Analysts are divided, however, on whether and how much Comair's value has depreciated since the fiasco, which could leave a lasting stain on the carrier's image and turn potential customers away.
And the emergence of independent, low-cost regional carriers including SkyWest, American Eagle, Chautauqua and Mesa has large airlines like Delta rethinking whether they really need to own small carriers like Comair, a wholly owned Delta subsidiary. Airlines are already under competitive pressure to keep fares steady and are coping with rising fuel costs.
"The relationships of all major carriers with their partners, whether they're wholly owned or not, is clearly in a state of flux," Doug Abbey, a partner with The Velocity Group, an aviation consulting firm in Washington, D.C., said Friday. "This is still a cost-driven industry."
Delta doesn't reveal how much profit Comair brings to the Delta system. But former Delta Chief Executive Leo Mullin said several years ago that collective revenue from Comair and other Delta Connection carriers that coordinate schedules with Delta was in the billions of dollars annually, Abbey said.
While Delta owns two of its regional carriers -- Comair and Atlantic Southeast -- United Airlines doesn't own any of its regional partners, including SkyWest, Republic Airlines and Air Wisconsin.
"There's a hybrid relationship in the industry," said Debby McElroy, president of the Regional Airline Association, a trade organization. "The major carriers are looking at what is the appropriate relationship -- whether that be ownership or a marketing agreement -- given the environment in today's market."
Delta and Comair spokesmen wouldn't comment on Delta's long-term plans for Comair, or whether the Christmas Day problems would affect those plans. But, Delta CEO Gerald Grinstein said last month that Delta would not necessarily need to own Comair or Atlantic Southeast to enjoy the benefits of receiving passengers from them.
Comair now faces a public relations problem because of its computer failure, said Richard Gritta, a University of Portland (Ore.) professor of finance and transportation.
"It looks foolish, coming over the Christmas break," Gritta said of Comair's one-day shutdown. "The fact that it happens right at Christmas and vacations are ruined … How do you replace somebody's ruined Christmas? At least US Airways got most of their passengers, minus the luggage to their destinations"
"It's a serious PR blow. And any blow like that is going to affect the market value," Gritta said.
The more-than-10-year-old computer system Comair uses to schedule flight crews collapsed on Christmas Eve, prompting Comair to scrap all its Christmas Day flights. Comair resumed flying a partial schedule the next day and was back on Wednesday to a normal schedule of 1,160 daily flights to 119 cities.
The airline carries about 30,000 passengers daily in the United States, mostly east of the Mississippi River, and to Canada and the Bahamas.
The carrier's management said it already had planned to replace its old computer system within the next few months.
Comair is focusing on reliably and safely serving its passengers and doesn't believe the Christmas fiasco will be the standard for judging the airline, company spokesman Nick Miller said.
Those documents that were faxed from TX, were fed to Terry McAuliffe & the TX democrats by none other than Karl Rove and Co. He set them up like the bunch of turkeys they are.
