Lowecur's report card

[N1atEcon]

AP

2004 has been a long and terrible year for the Airlines. One individual thinks there is some hope though, a small bit of light at the end of the tunnel. There is an infamous insurance man who if he could just get his voice heard could change things for the ailing industry. Self proclaimed amature analytic advisor Lowecur has been pestering aviation message boards with his prophecy for about a year now. When asked why "aviation" Lowecurs response was "Why not, you see even though I have no knowledge about Airlines and have never worked for one, they are like life, and life is about risks, and that's what i do for a living, I analyze risk". But when asked if he could be putting his time to better use he said "no! Yeah I could use to lose about 80 pounds, but hey, that's what life insurance is for, right?" "And my kids, well they are tuff, they can raise themselves, I did." Word in the air has it that several headhunters are trying to track Lowecur down.. Jet Blue just upped the ante after a promising post by Lowecur praising the airlines purchase of the EMB. Neeleman was overheard saying " that guy has some ideas, he has a vision of this industry that no one else has." SWA CEO Gary Kelly said "it is as if he has no formal training whatsoever, he shoots from the hip and hopes for the best. A maverick of sorts, a Cowboy, and we love Cowboy's." Well time will tell what the future holds for Lowecur . Will he be able to keep on gathering data and reposting it with his spin in 2005? You bet! Like an Iraqi insurgent, there is no signs of him letting up. And this reporters finally questions to the man with his finger on the pulse of the airline industy. "Where do you go from here?. What next? Will you change your stategy in 05? Will you analize and the predict correctly? Will you take some formal training in business, management or airline operations?" Lowecur said " I have read and re read the EMB 190 sales brochure. What else do I need to know. And for my last prediction for 2004: SWA needs to really rethink their strategy. It is almost 30 years now of the same old boring plan. One AC, point to point blah blah blah!!! Do you think that State Farm isn't rethinking there business plan after the Florida hurricans this year?" SWA's needs to listen up. "The EMB product is the only thing that can save the airline. Go head to head with JetBlue and you will lose."

But hey "I am just an insurance guy right..."

 

[I.P. Freley]

Can't we all just get along?

 

[Boeingman]

AP

2004 has been a long and terrible year for the Airlines. One individual thinks there is some hope though, a small bit of light at the end of the tunnel. There is an infamous insurance man who if he could just get his voice heard could change things for the ailing industry. Self proclaimed amature analytic advisor Lowecur has been pestering aviation message boards with his phophesy for about a year now. When asked why "aviation" Lowecurs response was "Why not, you see even though I have no knowledge about Airlines and have never worked for one, they are like life, and life is about risks, and that's what i do for a living, I analyze risk". But when asked if he could be putting his time to better use he said "no! Yeah I could use to lose about 80 pounds, but hey, that what life insurance is for, right?" "And my kids, well they are tuff, they can raise themselves, I did." Word in the air has it that several headhunters are trying to track Lowecur down.. Jet Blue just upped the ante after a promising post by Lowecur praising the airlines purchase of the EMB. Neeleman was overheard saying " that guy has some ideas, he has a vision of this industry that no one else has." SWA CEO Gary Kelly said "it is as if he has no formal training whatsoever, he shoots from the hip and hopes for the best. A maverick of sorts, a Cowboy, and we love Cowboy's." Well time will tell what the future holds for Lowecur . Will he be able to keep on gathering data and reposting it with his spin in 2005? You bet! Like an Iraqi insurgent, there is no signs of him letting up. And this reporters finally questions to the man with his finger on the pulse of the airline industy. "Where do you go from here?. What next? Will you change your stategy in 05? Will you analize and the predict correctly? Will you take some formal training in business, management or airline operations?" Lowecur said " I have read and re read the EMB 190 sales brochure. What else do I need to know. And for my last prediction for 2004: SWA needs to really rethink their strategy. It is almost 30 years now of the same old boring plan. One AC, point to point blah blah blah!!! Do you think that State Farm isn't rethinking there business plan after the Florida hurricans this year?" SWA's needs to listen up. "The EMB product is the only thing that can save the airline. Go head to head with JetBlue and you will lose."

But hey "I am just an insurance guy right..."

Funny!! I give him an F.

 

[lowecur]

The Legend Continues!!!!!!!!!​

​

Jetblue has a 40% seat cost advantage with Pilot Pay on the 190 vs Southwests 737​

*​

My guess is they were only anticipating a 10% cost advantage ​

when they bought the 190, thus reducing the CASM differential even further​

*​

Ergonomics, Economics, Efficiency

The Three E's of Success​

​

 

[Sy-bill]

I give him an A for effort, a C for analysis and an F for objectivity.

I bet he's a pretty good insurance agent.

 

[G4G5]

Aflack, Aflack

 

[Vik]

Isnt it supposed to be .. "Can't we all just get a bong?"

Can't we all just get along?

 

[Rule of thumb]

This board needs to get rid of a few for 2005.

Vik should be the first to go.

 

[canyonblue]

Jetblue has a 40% seat cost advantage with Pilot Pay on the 190 vs Southwests 737

If so, those guys will need a raise!

 

[N1atEcon]

The Legend Continues!!!!!!!!!​

I think not!!!

​

Jetblue has a 40% seat cost advantage with Pilot Pay on the 190 vs Southwests 737​

​

Where are you getting these numbers? That would mean that they would have to fly that thing at 4.56 cents per ASM.​

Even if the crews worked for free I don't think they could do pull in that low of a cost.​

FACTS PLEASE.​

​

Any jet blue guys have some numbers for us?.​

​

 

[Sy-bill]

The Legend Continues!!!!!!!!!​

I think not!!!

​

Jetblue has a 40% seat cost advantage with Pilot Pay on the 190 vs Southwests 737​

​

Where are you getting these numbers? That would mean that they would have to fly that thing at 4.56 cents per ASM.​

Even if the crews worked for free I don't think they could do pull in that low of a cost.​

FACTS PLEASE.​

​

Any jet blue guys have some numbers for us?.​

​

I think what lowecur was saying was in regard to crew costs vs crew costs. Not 40% of ASM.

I just lowered his grade though. Jetblues crew costs would be no different than the lower end of any regional pay.

 

[lowecur]

I think what lowecur was saying was in regard to crew costs vs crew costs. Not 40% of ASM.

I just lowered his grade though. Jetblues crew costs would be no different than the lower end of any regional pay.

Right you are there Sy. N1 may write a great piece for AP, but he doesn't understand CASM, RASM, and JAZM.

Here my good man, read what Jamie Baker says and plug in your own numbers.

[font=Arial, Helvetica][size=+1]JetBlue achieves ultra-competitive pilot pay on Embraer 190s
Dateline: Friday July 09, 2004

JetBlue Airways' 100-seat Embraer 190s, which begin arriving next year, "will offer better cockpit/seat economics" than larger Frontier Airlines A319s, AirTran 717s and Southwest Airlines 737s, according to JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker.

In a report released yesterday, Baker said that three-year seniority rates for JetBlue 190 captains will be $74 per hour, or $80 when adjusted for overtime. A 12-year captain on a JetBlue 190 will earn $96 including overtime, representing "a 33%" cost-per-seat advantage versus Southwest's 137-seat aircraft when adjusted for planned pilot pay increases at Southwest. "Whereas airline pilots typically get paid more as aircraft size increases, JetBlue has established its 100-seat pay scale below that of certain 70-seat operators, an obvious competitive disadvantage for the Regional airline sector, at least initially," Baker stated. Pay rates also will pressure regional jet operators. For example, a three-year captain on a 70-seat CRJ700 flying for Comair, a Delta Air Lines subsidiary, earns $74 per hour while captains on Horizon Air CRJ700s earn $75. According to Baker, American Airlines "would require a 757…to approach JetBlue's cockpit/seat economics" based on planned third-quarter 2005 AA pay rates.--Perry Flint

[/size][/font]

 

[Vik]

Rule of dumb, at it again. I can see that this thread is following the normal flightinfo.com trend.

This board needs to get rid of a few for 2005.

Vik should be the first to go.

 

[Swerpipe]

Pennie smart, pound foolish...

Right you are there Sy. N1 may write a great piece for AP, but he doesn't understand CASM, RASM, and JAZM.
Here my good man, read what Jamie Baker says and plug in your own numbers.

Well, Lowecur, here is the part that you are not considering or understand...The pilot group morale has a tremendous effect over the operations of any airline or company. A pilot workforce that is motivated and united will do whatever for their airline, that's an incredible force to contend with. You are really underestimating that aspect which is really what sets Southwest apart. The pilots create a significant part of the Southwest culture. However, if you divide an airline's pilot group when an airline is on its infancy, you may save a few pennies near term but it could be disastrous long term. Besides, you still haven't characterized the added costs of having adding an additional type to the fleet in tooling, maintenance, training, etc...

 

[lowecur]

Well, Lowecur, here is the part that you are not considering or understand...The pilot group morale has a tremendous effect over the operations of any airline or company. A pilot workforce that is motivated and united will do whatever for their airline, that's an incredible force to contend with. You are really underestimating that aspect which is really what sets Southwest apart. The pilots create a significant part of the Southwest culture. However, if you divide an airline's pilot group when an airline is on its infancy, you may save a few pennies near term but it could be disastrous long term. Besides, you still haven't characterized the added costs of having adding an additional type to the fleet in tooling, maintenance, training, etc...

Point taken.

Now you're going to be the first guy I come to see if there are any problems when the TA is due. Besides Jetblue will hire wet behind the ears yuts, who will more than luv to fly a new 190.

 

[Swerpipe]

It's all about attitudes that last...

Point taken.

Now you're going to be the first guy I come to see if there are any problems when the TA is due. Besides Jetblue will hire wet behind the ears yuts, who will more than luv to fly a new 190.

Any pilot loves to fly new equipment, especially when it's really new. But more important is when you feel "taken care of by your management", that beats it. I have heard/read comments from JBLU pilots who may be not the majority, that have reservations about the TA. Really dangerous at their stage in the game...Bad attitudes can kill any business including the insurance business. Happy New Year Lowecur and may this year give you better predicting powers. 2004 did really suck for you...LOL

 

[lowecur]

Any pilot loves to fly new equipment, especially when it's really new. But more important is when you feel "taken care of by your management", that beats it. I have heard/read comments from JBLU pilots who may be not the majority, that have reservations about the TA. Really dangerous at their stage in the game...Bad attitudes can kill any business including the insurance business. Happy New Year Lowecur and may this year give you better predicting powers. Thank you, back at ya! 2004 did really suck for you...LOL I'm try'n.

Yes, there are many pilots for Jetblue that are not happy with the 190 rate structure. The lowering the bar adage has crept into most threads. One PM'd me he actually received an interview with SWA and would take the job if offered. I think he was offered a job and took it.

This is an entirely new business model for a major airline. You have the A rate with the 320, and the B rate with the 190. Yes, it does create a feeling of disparity among the pilot group. I don't think Jetblue intended to have as low a rate structure on the 190, but many regionals had just signed TA's that allowed them the ability to fly up to 100 seats if the scopes changed at the majors. The handwriting was on the wall. Jetblue was not going to let the UAIR's, DL's, UAL's, and others soon to follow, cut them off at the knees, by sub-contracting this flying to the regionals at a lower cost. I believe UAL and DL have limitations, and for now can only fly the 170. Make no mistake, the 170 is a formidable competitor to the Jetblue's 190. Jetblue really had no choice if they wished to remain viable in the E-jet arena. If hindsight were 20/20, it would have been better if they were able to announce the pay rate in 2005, but they needed to start hiring and training in the middle of 2004.

I think over the long term the dual rate structure will "smooth" the pay curve and negotiations for the 320 pilots. I think you will see what I mean when the next TA for Southwest is negotiated. I know you think it will be a smooth transition where rates will remain close to where they are and the only changes will come by route of productivity, but there is a core of pilots that has become used to the big raises from the last TA and will expect the same this time around.

 

[80drvr]

This is an entirely new business model for a major airline. You have the A rate with the 320, and the B rate with the 190. Yes, it does create a feeling of disparity among the pilot group.

Don't know if you've been paying attenion, but this "B" scale thing isn't exactly a new business model.

 

[Dizel8]

Nor is it a B-scale. B-scale is flying the same equipment within the same company for less money.

The pilot flying the 747 for NWA makes more than the 9 driver, but the 9 driver is not on B-scale. Likewise, while the 190 pilot is paid less than the 320 pilot, he is not on B-scale.

 

[80drvr]

Nor is it really a B-scale. B-scale is flying the same equipment for less money.

That is correct. But, the disparity in pay scales between the E190 and A320 has much the same effect as the B scale. Of course, that's just my opinion and doesn't really matter because people will vote one way or the other with their feet.

While you won't hear much love for the B scale, it did lead to a whole lot of folks being hired in the 80's with significantly less that what you'd consider competitive qualifications today. Of course that hiring may have happened anyway without the B scale, but we'll never know what would have happened if he unions stuck to their guns (same thing with scope).