Leave SWA for AA or Delta?

[GhettoBeechjet]

I really tried to write this for the benefit of the OP and stay away from the my airline is better than your airline crap. That being said GL It is interesting where you chose to edit the article you quoted. Here is a bit more:

Standard & Poor's said Delta's financial profile is getting better, because its earnings are healthy and its spending in recent years has been moderate. S&P expects both of those trends to continue. The upgrade comes two days after Delta said it will start paying dividends again, and plans to return $1 billion to shareholders through those dividends and a stock buyback.
The firm upgraded Delta's credit rating to 'B+' from 'B'. That is still "junk" or noninvestment grade, four notches below investment grade. The outlook is stable.
Delta said it will pay a quarterly dividend of 6 cents per share starting in September. It also plans to buy back $500 million of its stock by mid-2016. Those investor-friendly moves are unusual for airlines. Southwest Airlines Co. is the only other large U.S. airline with a dividend, paying a penny per share.

So the fact is your company's credit is currently still a junk bond rating. I understand that it is improving but that's based on DL's continued profitability. That means a new hire would be subject to the risk of anything that might affect DLs profitability which could be a fuel price spike, the worldwide economy, or even a flu stain affecting the international markets like the bird flu did. DLs management is dealing with the debt but the fact is today it's still there and poses a risk to a new hire pilot.

 

[superherc]

Pro SWA:

No PBS! QOL is good for lineholders. The flexibility to move, trade, or giveaway trip is unmatched at other airlines. Pay is good, and most are happy to be at Southwest.

Con:

Long upgrades, may buy another airline someday.

 

[-9Capt]

Con:

Long upgrades, may buy another airline someday.

Or they might get bought.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Next issue: Payrates in A/C you are likely to fly. I wasn't saying that DLs payrates are bad and your argument would have merit if we were discussing a guy leaving a regional but we aren't. Beech is on 6th year pay at WN $136/hr APC number. From that number he would be losing big money going back to year 1 DL pay and unless he upgrades quickly. According to APC that is unlikely because DL's pilot turnover via retirements is about 15 percent between now and 2019 which to me would indicate he would most likely be on the 717 the MD88 or Airbus for a while. With your current rates he will not get back to his current payrate even if he tops out.

 

[General Lee]

Pro SWA:

No PBS! QOL is good for lineholders. The flexibility to move, trade, or giveaway trip is unmatched at other airlines. Pay is good, and most are happy to be at Southwest.

Con:

Long upgrades, may buy another airline someday.

So wait, you would avoid a career move to a legacy airline due to PBS??? Whaaaat??? PBS is great for senior pilots, bad for the very junior. You get used to it and thanks to huge retirement numbers, you become senior in category quicker. Did you think the same about "evil auto throttles" or "evil VNAV?"

The Corndogs have stagnation, unhappy merger, same plane forever, multiple leg days, and boredom. Throw in Redflyer and Wave, and those red flags are too hard to overcome. Oh, and pay for your type if you don't already have it. (A shame)


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Next issue: Payrates in A/C you are likely to fly. I wasn't saying that DLs payrates are bad and your argument would have merit if we were discussing a guy leaving a regional but we aren't. Beech is on 6th year pay at WN $136/hr APC number. From that number he would be losing big money going back to year 1 DL pay and unless he upgrades quickly. According to APC that is unlikely because DL's pilot turnover via retirements is about 15 percent between now and 2019 which to me would indicate he would most likely be on the 717 the MD88 or Airbus for a while. With your current rates he will not get back to his current payrate even if he tops out.

Hey, I appreciate what you are trying to do, I just disagree with your findings.

I see what you are saying about leaving one airline at a current rate, and starting over. If you HAD to, DL has the highest "new hire" pay.(my point). With huge retirement numbers, 2nd and 3rd year pay can vary, because not every plane pays the same at a legacy (unlike SWA). Bigger planes pay more, but staying senior on a narrow body may also yield higher pay when swapping for bigger trips, etc. If you can jump up to a wide body in year 3, you could make more than you did before, do something totally different (long haul INTL), and see the variety in front of you, as you progress up the list as people retire.


Consolidation has strengthened the big 3 and SWA. Bag fees and pax fees now seem to be accepted, and that with consolidation has really created a viable industry. Sure, things could always go wrong, but the big 3 are cleaning up balance sheets, and hopefully turning the corner for good. Now someone just needs to compare upward movement, pay, bases, and QOL. That's it.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Changing jobs has 3 factors:

1. Potential reward
2. Potential risk
3. Emotional/family issues

I tried to lay out the risk and reward as best and unbiased as I could. I'm sure the OP isn't the only person looking at a move.

For the OP given his rough seniority at WN he/she would upgrade in 2027
If hired at DL it would be roughly 2025. For that I assumed 0 fleet growth and mandatory retirements only and upgrade at the 50th percentile.

 

[slaquer5]

So wait, you would avoid a career move to a legacy airline due to PBS??? Whaaaat??? PBS is great for senior pilots, bad for the very junior. You get used to it and thanks to huge retirement numbers, you become senior in category quicker. Did you think the same about "evil auto throttles" or "evil VNAV?"

The Corndogs have stagnation, unhappy merger, same plane forever, multiple leg days, and boredom. Throw in Redflyer and Wave, and those red flags are too hard to overcome. Oh, and pay for your type if you don't already have it. (A shame)


Bye Bye---General Lee

Are you going to hit 20,000 (Twenty Thousand) 20K, post by the end of the year.


I think you can do it.

 

[General Lee]

Changing jobs has 3 factors:

1. Potential reward
2. Potential risk
3. Emotional/family issues

I tried to lay out the risk and reward as best and unbiased as I could. I'm sure the OP isn't the only person looking at a move.

For the OP given his rough seniority at WN he/she would upgrade in 2027
If hired at DL it would be roughly 2025. For that I assumed 0 fleet growth and mandatory retirements only and upgrade at the 50th percentile.

You are missing a lot. At a legacy, wide body FO goes senior. Ever seen a DL A330 or 744/777 crew? The FOs can usually hold 737 Capt easily, but don't want to fly domestic. The 50th percentile means little at DL.

If a new hire gets hired this next year at DL, I would think he'd hold 717 Capt by 2020. There will be 800+ Capts leaving PER YEAR from 2020-2023, then 650 in 2024. They may leave early, those numbers are for age 65, and not everyone is going there, especially senior FNWA pilots that still have a pension, they may leave around age 63 or so. Throw in the fact that 200 "new" planes coming over the next few years (88 717s, 100 739ERs, 30 A321s, 10 A330s, 787s still on order supposedly coming by 2020), while losing 17 DC95s, and some older 757s that may be slowed to parking due to recent profits.

I don't think you can compare DL and SWA. DL has huge upside potential due to growth, retirements, and strengthening balance sheet. SWA has a great balance sheet, but has stagnation ahead, a group of unhappy merged pilots, and that same group is fairly young overall, meaning fewer retirements and stagnation.

Potential reward at all 3 legacies is GREAT, with risk decreasing due to Consolidation. The more retirements, the better QOL or financial rewards, helping with emotional/family issues. Being stuck at the bottom for years due to few retirements, is bad, regardless of the pay, which will be equalled by the legacies anyway shortly.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Are you going to hit 20,000 (Twenty Thousand) 20K, post by the end of the year.


I think you can do it.

This is how one responds when they can't really debate anymore, They got NOTHIN, so they go for "the post total." Classic! Thanks...


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mercyful Fate]

This is how one responds when they can't really debate anymore, They got NOTHIN, so they go for "the post total." Classic! Thanks...


Bye Bye---General Lee

Kind of like your "lav dumper in Minot" routine eh?

By the way, must have cried pretty hard at the Mods...Good job!

 

[waveflyer]

No general, it's how one responds when we hear the same elitist widebody crap over and over

Go chase your carrot man

 

[General Lee]

No general, it's how one responds when we hear the same elitist widebody crap over and over

Go chase your carrot man

It's called variety, Wave. Elitist? It's a great part of this job, and a great option to try. The great part is, if you don't like long haul, you can go back to domestic. Hey, I'd rather get 12 hours of pay in one flight, while you do it in 12 flights. Good for you Wave, good for you. It is nice to choose, though. And, there is soooo much else out there. I enjoy all of it.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

I did choose. And have never regretted it.
Why that bugs this online ego of yours, I have no idea- but the point is that we've all heard it.... Pushing 20,000 times now.

 

[slaquer5]

This is how one responds when they can't really debate anymore, They got NOTHIN, so they go for "the post total." Classic! Thanks...


Bye Bye---General Lee

What am I debating with you ? I do not think you deabate much . All you do is slam Texas, and talk down to the comuttter pilots .


PS. I left out slam SWA in every post . Why dont you put this much effort into trying to do something nice for someone or some family.

 

[General Lee]

What am I debating with you ? I do not think you deabate much . All you do is slam Texas, and talk down to the comuttter pilots .


PS. I left out slam SWA in every post . Why dont you put this much effort into trying to do something nice for someone or some family.

Slam SWA in every post? You don't like that some people don't want to do what you do. I point out actual differences, something a perspective job seeker should need to know. There are big differences between a LCC job and a legacy job. Each point I make cannot be refuted. Sorry if that upsets some people, including you.

And you say I should put effort into "helping someone or some family.....????" Hmmmm. What? How do you know I don't do that now. Besides outside of FI posting, I do. I also answer plenty of PMs giving advice, and I think I have steered people towards better job options. One piece of advice I always give is "never pay for your own type rating." That has saved thousands of dollars already.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

If you've had one PM that was looking for actual advice and not just trying ways to figure out who you are- I'd be genuinely surprised.

Btw- pot meet kettle. You clearly don't like that Pilots are happy at SWA and ignore that SWA schedules DO NOT EXIST within your domestic lines and our QOL is good.

Said it before- most pilots roll their eyes at us going back and forth about which MAJOR AIRLINE JOB is "better" while they're slugging it out

 

[slaquer5]

Slam SWA in every post? You don't like that some people don't want to do what you do. I point out actual differences, something a perspective job seeker should need to know. There are big differences between a LCC job and a legacy job. Each point I make cannot be refuted. Sorry if that upsets some people, including you.

And you say I should put effort into "helping someone or some family.....????" Hmmmm. What? How do you know I don't do that now. Besides outside of FI posting, I do. I also answer plenty of PMs giving advice, and I think I have steered people towards better job options. One piece of advice I always give is "never pay for your own type rating." That has saved thousands of dollars already.



Bye Bye---General Lee

Please seek help. We will have a fund drive for you on FI

 

[benelli]

Wow

Not a big poster on this forum but sure do like to stalk. Funny how we see these conversations constantly degenerate into personal jabs. Sad how little respect we have for each other.

Addressing the original question. No, I would not leave Southwest for Delta, or any other airline. In this industry there seems to be a never ending ideal that the grass IS greener at any other airline, and the job I have now could not suck anymore than it does now. Bigger airplanes(heavies) are always better, and Southwest will never play in that sandlot. I have no personal allegiance to Southwest Airlines, but will say that most fail to realize what their management is building right under the industry's nose. What I see happening is a company that realizes they can no longer operate under their original business model, which was as a low cost carrier competing against legacy carriers with much larger networks, better perks for their loyal costumers, and much higher costs.As the legacy airlines have adapted, so has Southwest. Over the last decade, Legacy carriers have adopted business models more in line with the LCCs. Wages, adjusted for inflation, have dropped, contracts with employee groups have focused more on maximizing productivity, and the moral of the employee groups and the understanding that they have a stake in the success of the company has become more of a focal point. (Delta has excelled at this.) Although some will say SWA has lost some of these attributes, it is still very much a part of their business model and culture.

Southwest Airlines purchase/acquisition of AirTran accomplished two things. First, it removed a major competitor in the domestic market, and expanded its domestic route structure. Second, it gave Southwest, although limited, immediate international exposure, exposure that Southwest had shunned up to that point because of their aversion to code shares. This purchase/acquisition, and the ones I feel are to come, are game changers.

Southwest's focus for the last 30+ years has been on building a domestic network that would cover every major metropolitan area in the country...and some not so major. They have done so without a reliance on code shares and contracts with commuter operations. And yet they now carry more passengers domestically than any other US carrier. This is impressive considering approx 20% of Delta's domestic passengers originate from international flights INTO the US. What Southwest has neglected in the past, international, will now become their focus and change the way we look at them forever. BWI, FLL and HOU have been announced as major gateway cities to South America and the Caribbean. And this is just the beginning. It is my guess that Southwest's entrance into the BOS market, and NY via LGA and EWR, are in anticipation of future service to not only the Carribean/South America, but also to Europe( Mr Kelly has voiced such interest.) Future service to Hawaii is still on the table , but not as most had anticipated. During a conversation with one of the business channels in the past year, Mr Kelly expressed Southwest's strong interest in the Pacific Rim/Asia, and Hawaii. In order to gain access to this market, Southwest will most likely acquire Hawaiian Airlines. With a market cap of approx 300 million, the purchase would be inexpensive,and would give Southwest the same overnight presence in the Hawaii, and the markets they serve.(Austraillia, Tahiti, Manila)

Note that all the cities serviced by Hawaiian on the mainland also overlap with SWA. After this is announced, I would expect a large wide body order to be announced. This would most likely be the Boeing 787, giving SWA full access to the Asian markets, with feed to the US markets.

Food for thought before you bail. The probability of Delta doubling in size from 11,800 to 23,600 is very slim. Southwest doubling in size from approx 7400 to 14,000 is not. International expansion will happen and with it even more domestic. Yes Delta has a significant number of retirements, but so does Southwest(Given their size)

 

[canyonblue]

Food for thought before you bail. The probability of Delta doubling in size from 11,800 to 23,600 is very slim. Southwest doubling in size from approx 7400 to 14,000 is not. International expansion will happen and with it even more domestic. Yes Delta has a significant number of retirements, but so does Southwest(Given their size)

A very well thought out post. I quoted your last paragraph, as I have had this same conversation with fellow pilots, not about leaving, but more about their friends getting hired at a Major, and I believe you hit the nail on the head. When your main selling point is the "massive number of retirements", that doesn't really sell for the person looking for security in an airline. We can only get bigger, and we will.