Kit Darby's Pilot Shortage is Wrong

[Fly-By-Cable]

I'm sure it will recover, just may take a few years. I know that in a few years at Delta, not sure exactly when it starts - I would have to look again, but over a period of 5 years we retire over 800 pilots a year. That is 1/3 of our entire pilot staff gone in a 5 year period.

I saw those numbers too. United is similar and so is amr and usair. There will definetaly be pilot hiring but no shortage. 1000 turbine pic wont go away lets put it that way.

 

[gutshotdraw]

I'd like to see the number of pilots who can actually hold a class one medical certificate until 65!

You've obviously never spent any time in a busy corporate aviation FBO...

 

[JUNK YARD DOG]

Darby is still pissed that in the 90's he didn't come up with the whole pay for your job scam...

 

[5w5flyer]

"The number of pilots, flight attendants and ground crew workers is shrinking as consolidation and the recession have hurt the industry badly."

This article is garbage. Consolidation is actually helping the industry. This belongs with the "Ten ways to pick hot stocks" and "Ten ways to tell someone loves you" and all the other journalist BS.

It's kinda like in high school when you had to write a report but didn't really feel like it, so you pulled something out of your @$$. That's what most journalism is like now.

As far as a pilotless aircraft, keep in mind the Turkish accident in Amsterdam, where failure of the autothrust caused a stall. Although the pilots didn't recover, without a human crew, an aircraft in that situation would definitely crash.

 

[Fox-Tree]

As far as a pilotless aircraft, keep in mind the Turkish accident in Amsterdam, where failure of the autothrust caused a stall. Although the pilots didn't recover, without a human crew, an aircraft in that situation would definitely crash.

So, even with pilots, they crashed......... but you're saying without pilots in that aircraft it would have really, really crashed?

 

[General Lee]

Has Kit Darby EVER been right?

He must have been good, he was a white male who was hired at United...


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Dizel8]

Flight school starts are way down, the military is shifting to UAV's.

9/11 coupled with the recession and age 65 has mitigated the problem somewhat, but looking at the upcoming retirement number for the majors as well as the global demand for skilled aircrews, the next ten years might just see a big shortage!

 

[pilotyip]

all part of the 2012 hiring boom

 

[poppi]

As far as a pilotless aircraft, keep in mind the Turkish accident in Amsterdam, where failure of the autothrust caused a stall. Although the pilots didn't recover, without a human crew, an aircraft in that situation would definitely crash.[/QUOTE]

really ?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5846088.ece

 

[MDWCrashPad]

The word "shortage" is a political term, not an economic one. In economics when demand exceeds supply the price for the commodity will increase until supply equals demand. What we have been seeing the last 22 years is a change in the commodity that is considered acceptable in order to keep the supply up. Instead of a 3000 hour military trained pilot or the 6000 hour civilian pilot that I competed against for jobs back in 1988, I now compete against guys with 211 hours. Where do I come up with the number of 211? Well, that is how much time the guy I just flew with had when he got hired. Some day when he gets enough time to hold captain he will upgrade and take his rightful place ahead of me on the captain's list.

The requirements to be a pilot have continually gone down. Planes have been automated and the requirements to be a pilot have gone down and down and down. Rather then raise salaries to compete for available pilots, airlines merely lower the standards of what they will take in order to keep the starting salary the same.

What comes next? How about the airlines going to the government to produce more pilots. How about bringing more foreign pilots in? How about overseas flight academies sponsored by the US airlines where they train foreign pilots to eventually fly for US airlines? If they demand higher salaries they can threaten to end the program and send them back to India or the Philippines. The key will be to make the pilot dependent upon the job. The threat of termination will make the pilot willing to work for whatever the airline will give him. One key component has just been implemented, transfer of training records. Demand more money, put in a grevience over some issue and you can expect to get a quick checkride or 2. Make the pilot unemployable and you can control him.

Unfortunately, I wrote about this back in 1988. I wish I had been wrong.

There is a solution in my opinion.

 

[Linedriver]

The word "shortage" is a political term, not an economic one. In economics when demand exceeds supply the price for the commodity will increase until supply equals demand. What we have been seeing the last 22 years is a change in the commodity that is considered acceptable in order to keep the supply up. Instead of a 3000 hour military trained pilot or the 6000 hour civilian pilot that I competed against for jobs back in 1988, I now compete against guys with 211 hours. Where do I come up with the number of 211? Well, that is how much time the guy I just flew with had when he got hired. Some day when he gets enough time to hold captain he will upgrade and take his rightful place ahead of me on the captain's list.

The requirements to be a pilot have continually gone down. Planes have been automated and the requirements to be a pilot have gone down and down and down. Rather then raise salaries to compete for available pilots, airlines merely lower the standards of what they will take in order to keep the starting salary the same.

What comes next? How about the airlines going to the government to produce more pilots. How about bringing more foreign pilots in? How about overseas flight academies sponsored by the US airlines where they train foreign pilots to eventually fly for US airlines? If they demand higher salaries they can threaten to end the program and send them back to India or the Philippines. The key will be to make the pilot dependent upon the job. The threat of termination will make the pilot willing to work for whatever the airline will give him. One key component has just been implemented, transfer of training records. Demand more money, put in a grevience over some issue and you can expect to get a quick checkride or 2. Make the pilot unemployable and you can control him.

Unfortunately, I wrote about this back in 1988. I wish I had been wrong.

There is a solution in my opinion.

So, the first part of your post makes no sense and the second part is a pretty grim view of things.

6000 hours was competitive when I was hired in 11/07 and the 211 hour guy you speak of wont get a higher seniority number when he makes captain. Btw, did he have 211 hours hired at a major or commuter? Compare apples to apples.

Also, I think The US has, and will continue to have, the best training facilities in the world. There may be other carrriers that use foreign pilots but I serioiusly doubt the American citizen will be overlooked as a labor force just because some pilot in Indonesia will do it for food.

This is still the United States of America! I know that the current administration seems to be a little apologetic and directionless, and it feels to me that we have been in better shape but I think a lot will happen in a couple of years. Just as Carter brought about Ronald Reagan I think that in our next admiinistration there will be a renewed effort of the American spirit.

That's my opinion.

 

[PurpleInMEM]

So, the first part of your post makes no sense and the second part is a pretty grim view of things.

6000 hours was competitive when I was hired in 11/07 and the 211 hour guy you speak of wont get a higher seniority number when he makes captain. Btw, did he have 211 hours hired at a major or commuter? Compare apples to apples.

Also, I think The US has, and will continue to have, the best training facilities in the world. There may be other carrriers that use foreign pilots but I serioiusly doubt the American citizen will be overlooked as a labor force just because some pilot in Indonesia will do it for food.

This is still the United States of America! I know that the current administration seems to be a little apologetic and directionless, and it feels to me that we have been in better shape but I think a lot will happen in a couple of years. Just as Carter brought about Ronald Reagan I think that in our next admiinistration there will be a renewed effort of the American spirit.

That's my opinion.

While I hope you're right, I think it's a bit pie-in-the-sky. I cannot in good conscience recommend this field to anyone under any circumstances. The falling pay, continued market uncertainty, cabotage threats, TSA theatrics, etc. make this occupation a fool's errand. The once lucrative incentives (early retirement, $$, travel bennies, etc.) to enter this field are long gone.

 

[pilotyip]

just talked wit h Kit, he is doing fine has a consulting company, don't think he will be going back into the job fiar business again. I loved the job fairs, get to see everyone have a few drinks and have a good time talking about airplanes

 

[jdubya]

I still remember Nancy Stuke at United (I believe that was her name) and her 'vision' of hiring back in the day....glad I didn't make it at this point.
Darby did have a hell of a business at one point.

 

[Linedriver]

He was raking it in for a while!! Isn't/wasn't he a captain at United?