Kit Darby's Pilot Shortage is Wrong

[General Lee]

Has Kit Darby EVER been right?

He must have been good, he was a white male who was hired at United...


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Dizel8]

Flight school starts are way down, the military is shifting to UAV's.

9/11 coupled with the recession and age 65 has mitigated the problem somewhat, but looking at the upcoming retirement number for the majors as well as the global demand for skilled aircrews, the next ten years might just see a big shortage!

 

[pilotyip]

all part of the 2012 hiring boom

 

[poppi]

As far as a pilotless aircraft, keep in mind the Turkish accident in Amsterdam, where failure of the autothrust caused a stall. Although the pilots didn't recover, without a human crew, an aircraft in that situation would definitely crash.[/QUOTE]

really ?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5846088.ece

 

[MDWCrashPad]

The word "shortage" is a political term, not an economic one. In economics when demand exceeds supply the price for the commodity will increase until supply equals demand. What we have been seeing the last 22 years is a change in the commodity that is considered acceptable in order to keep the supply up. Instead of a 3000 hour military trained pilot or the 6000 hour civilian pilot that I competed against for jobs back in 1988, I now compete against guys with 211 hours. Where do I come up with the number of 211? Well, that is how much time the guy I just flew with had when he got hired. Some day when he gets enough time to hold captain he will upgrade and take his rightful place ahead of me on the captain's list.

The requirements to be a pilot have continually gone down. Planes have been automated and the requirements to be a pilot have gone down and down and down. Rather then raise salaries to compete for available pilots, airlines merely lower the standards of what they will take in order to keep the starting salary the same.

What comes next? How about the airlines going to the government to produce more pilots. How about bringing more foreign pilots in? How about overseas flight academies sponsored by the US airlines where they train foreign pilots to eventually fly for US airlines? If they demand higher salaries they can threaten to end the program and send them back to India or the Philippines. The key will be to make the pilot dependent upon the job. The threat of termination will make the pilot willing to work for whatever the airline will give him. One key component has just been implemented, transfer of training records. Demand more money, put in a grevience over some issue and you can expect to get a quick checkride or 2. Make the pilot unemployable and you can control him.

Unfortunately, I wrote about this back in 1988. I wish I had been wrong.

There is a solution in my opinion.

 

[Linedriver]

The word "shortage" is a political term, not an economic one. In economics when demand exceeds supply the price for the commodity will increase until supply equals demand. What we have been seeing the last 22 years is a change in the commodity that is considered acceptable in order to keep the supply up. Instead of a 3000 hour military trained pilot or the 6000 hour civilian pilot that I competed against for jobs back in 1988, I now compete against guys with 211 hours. Where do I come up with the number of 211? Well, that is how much time the guy I just flew with had when he got hired. Some day when he gets enough time to hold captain he will upgrade and take his rightful place ahead of me on the captain's list.

The requirements to be a pilot have continually gone down. Planes have been automated and the requirements to be a pilot have gone down and down and down. Rather then raise salaries to compete for available pilots, airlines merely lower the standards of what they will take in order to keep the starting salary the same.

What comes next? How about the airlines going to the government to produce more pilots. How about bringing more foreign pilots in? How about overseas flight academies sponsored by the US airlines where they train foreign pilots to eventually fly for US airlines? If they demand higher salaries they can threaten to end the program and send them back to India or the Philippines. The key will be to make the pilot dependent upon the job. The threat of termination will make the pilot willing to work for whatever the airline will give him. One key component has just been implemented, transfer of training records. Demand more money, put in a grevience over some issue and you can expect to get a quick checkride or 2. Make the pilot unemployable and you can control him.

Unfortunately, I wrote about this back in 1988. I wish I had been wrong.

There is a solution in my opinion.

So, the first part of your post makes no sense and the second part is a pretty grim view of things.

6000 hours was competitive when I was hired in 11/07 and the 211 hour guy you speak of wont get a higher seniority number when he makes captain. Btw, did he have 211 hours hired at a major or commuter? Compare apples to apples.

Also, I think The US has, and will continue to have, the best training facilities in the world. There may be other carrriers that use foreign pilots but I serioiusly doubt the American citizen will be overlooked as a labor force just because some pilot in Indonesia will do it for food.

This is still the United States of America! I know that the current administration seems to be a little apologetic and directionless, and it feels to me that we have been in better shape but I think a lot will happen in a couple of years. Just as Carter brought about Ronald Reagan I think that in our next admiinistration there will be a renewed effort of the American spirit.

That's my opinion.

 

[PurpleInMEM]

So, the first part of your post makes no sense and the second part is a pretty grim view of things.

6000 hours was competitive when I was hired in 11/07 and the 211 hour guy you speak of wont get a higher seniority number when he makes captain. Btw, did he have 211 hours hired at a major or commuter? Compare apples to apples.

Also, I think The US has, and will continue to have, the best training facilities in the world. There may be other carrriers that use foreign pilots but I serioiusly doubt the American citizen will be overlooked as a labor force just because some pilot in Indonesia will do it for food.

This is still the United States of America! I know that the current administration seems to be a little apologetic and directionless, and it feels to me that we have been in better shape but I think a lot will happen in a couple of years. Just as Carter brought about Ronald Reagan I think that in our next admiinistration there will be a renewed effort of the American spirit.

That's my opinion.

While I hope you're right, I think it's a bit pie-in-the-sky. I cannot in good conscience recommend this field to anyone under any circumstances. The falling pay, continued market uncertainty, cabotage threats, TSA theatrics, etc. make this occupation a fool's errand. The once lucrative incentives (early retirement, $$, travel bennies, etc.) to enter this field are long gone.

 

[pilotyip]

just talked wit h Kit, he is doing fine has a consulting company, don't think he will be going back into the job fiar business again. I loved the job fairs, get to see everyone have a few drinks and have a good time talking about airplanes

 

[jdubya]

I still remember Nancy Stuke at United (I believe that was her name) and her 'vision' of hiring back in the day....glad I didn't make it at this point.
Darby did have a hell of a business at one point.

 

[Linedriver]

He was raking it in for a while!! Isn't/wasn't he a captain at United?

 

[A-V-8]

I posted this in a previous thread on this subject matter.

I’ll throw in my one cent worth. I can’t afford two cents as an F.O. at Mesa. The baby boomers are starting to retire. They represent well over half of the current legacy pilots. I have a book that I got at a Kit Darby seminar back in 2008 when he was traveling around doing the seminar thing. Half of the current major airline pilots will reach 65 by 2018. That is a lot of #s. When the attrition starts again in 2013 the flood gates will open again. It had already started back in 2008 and 6 regionals were hiring pilots with multi commercials. Mesa, Eagle, Great Lakes, Pinnacle, and two more that I don’t remember. They had lowered the standards as low as they could be lowered. When the attrition starts again regional types will move on to majors or jobs being vacated by furloughed pilots and the regionals will start to hire. If you think we have problems now wait until some guy who has been flying laps in a 172 for 5 or 6 years finally gets on with a regional. He will work practically for free if he has to just to move a step up. High time instructors salivating over a job on a jet will be our worst nightmare. They will believe the same things that we all did at some point. Go to a regional and FedEx will be begging you to work for them a year or so later. Your mail box will fill up with offers from Majors as soon as you meet their minimums. When the attrition starts it will be the tip of the iceberg for our problems. Of course Karma will come full circle. Those high time instructors are teaching mostly foreign students right now. Not a lot of guys to fill their slots as instructors right now. The high time instructors will move on and then the fun will begin. I estimate around Dec 2014. That is when the attrition at majors is roughly equal to the # of furloughed guys. The well will run dry. It will no longer take a few months for the market to produce a 121 pilot. It will take around 2 years. Also Sally Mae will not finance ratings. More folks are unable to pay for pilot ratings for their kids due to the recession and it will be almost impossible to get financing. Raise the pay LOL. You can offer them the moon. There will be not pilots. No pilots for years. The regionals will have a shortage of labor. As far as the majors go: Sky Bus offered 65K for a line check airman on the Bus and there was a line out the door to work there. No shortage at the majors level because regional guys will always line up when they start accepting resumes. The regional’s that don’t pay well or treat people fairly will not be able to retain pilots. They will be toast. The higher labor cost at the regional pilot level will result in majors consolidating say 2 CRJ 700 turns into one Airbus turn. Regional’s will become smaller and fly fewer passengers.

 

[goodgig]

There will always be an ass for every saddle. Period.

 

[Turtle21]

You guys just never noticed the fine print.

Pilot job Shortage.

:laugh: