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Kit Darby's Pilot Shortage is Wrong

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tbkane

Well-known member
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Jan 27, 2002
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The 10 American Industries That May Never Recover

8. Airlines. The number of pilots, flight attendants and ground crew workers is shrinking as consolidation and the recession have hurt the industry badly. Mergers in the last two years, between Delta and Northwest and United's merger with Continental, have decreased the number of large carriers in the U.S. by half. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported that the number of airline employees in the U.S. has fallen by 25% since 2001. And the latest merger firings have not yet been announced. Jobs for pilots and flight engineers fell by 30.4% in the third quarter of 2009 to 96,000 from 138,000 jobs in 2008, according to the BLS.

30% decrease in pilot jobs and age 65 on top of it. Pilot shortage I don't think so!

Full article is here http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bu...0-american-industries-that-will-never-recover
 
As Sir Winston Churchill has said "I only believe statistics if I have made them myself".

I'd like to see the number of pilots who can actually hold a class one medical certificate until 65!

P.S.: Mergers and firings: I don't recall the "new" Delta having furloughed pilots or planning to do so.
 
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Boeing says the airline industry will need to hire more than one million workers over the next 20 years to prepare for a wave of 30,000 new aircraft.
The airlines will need to hire 466,650 pilots and 596,500 maintenance crew workers between 2010 and 2029, the aircraft maker said Thursday.

That means the industry will need an average of 23,300 new pilots and 30,000 maintenance workers annually from now until 2029, the company said.
"Our challenge is adapting our training to engage the future generation of people who will fly and maintain the more than 30,000 airplanes that will be delivered by 2029," said Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer for Boeing Training & Flight Services, in a statement.
0:00 /2:39Can Russia compete in aviation?
The largest need for new personnel is in the Asia-Pacific region, where about 180,000 pilots and 220,000 maintenance workers will be required, the company said.
In North America, the commercial airline industry will need about 97,000 pilots and 137,000 maintenance crew members, Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) said. Similar numbers will be needed in Europe.


http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/16/news/international/boeing_jobs_airline/?section=money_latest
 
tbkane said:
Yeah that is great if we all want to move to China!
Click to expand...

Your reading comprehension skills are a little rusty, there chowderhead.

"In North America, the commercial airline industry will need about 97,000 pilots and 137,000 maintenance crew members, Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) said. Similar numbers will be needed in Europe."
 
23,000 new pilots a year come on. Boeing in is the business of selling planes what are they supposed to say were stagnant and the US industry just isn't buying airplanes? If you think we need 97,000 pilots by the year 2029 just wait. Single pilot cockpits are allready being worked on followed by no pilot cockpits just like the military. So drink the koolaid if you want but the reality is the market is shrinking for pilots. There Chowderhead.
 
I'm sure it will recover, just may take a few years. I know that in a few years at Delta, not sure exactly when it starts - I would have to look again, but over a period of 5 years we retire over 800 pilots a year. That is 1/3 of our entire pilot staff gone in a 5 year period.
 
Just as these rest rules are trying to combat fatalities, so will regulations against single pilot cockpits. Like I have said before all they have to do is bring up the CAL IOE flight where the IOE Capt died of a heart attack just after rotation. That puts an end to single pilot cockpits for many moons to come.

Most of the aircraft purchases in the US will be fleet renewal. Places like China still need to grow. We are pretty much capped here in the US.
 
FLYLOW22 said:
Has Kit Darby EVER been right?
Click to expand...

Has Mr. Darby EVER been honest about anything? It is easy to invent "pilot shortages" when you make tons of money from gullible people.
 
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You guys just never noticed the fine print.

Pilot job Shortage.
 
If single pilot cockpits come they will come with high insurance and tougher rest requirements. UAV airliner, I don't think so not in my lifetime, which I hope is at least another 60 years. If a military UAV crashes who really cares, a UAV type airliner crashes then it is a big deal. How many times have you sat in the cockpit and said "what the hell is this thing doing now?" or how many times have you been asked to pull a sequence of CB's to reset a system? Our job has become so undesirable these days that a lack of new pilots combined with retirements starting in 2012 will help fuel a pilot shortage. Like everything in life we will have to wait and see, for now I will continue to play in the sand box, make some money and put lots away just in case things don't turn around like we hope.
 
Linedriver said:
I'm sure it will recover, just may take a few years. I know that in a few years at Delta, not sure exactly when it starts - I would have to look again, but over a period of 5 years we retire over 800 pilots a year. That is 1/3 of our entire pilot staff gone in a 5 year period.
Click to expand...

I saw those numbers too. United is similar and so is amr and usair. There will definetaly be pilot hiring but no shortage. 1000 turbine pic wont go away lets put it that way.
 
Dornier 335 said:
I'd like to see the number of pilots who can actually hold a class one medical certificate until 65!
Click to expand...

You've obviously never spent any time in a busy corporate aviation FBO...
 
"The number of pilots, flight attendants and ground crew workers is shrinking as consolidation and the recession have hurt the industry badly."

This article is garbage. Consolidation is actually helping the industry. This belongs with the "Ten ways to pick hot stocks" and "Ten ways to tell someone loves you" and all the other journalist BS.

It's kinda like in high school when you had to write a report but didn't really feel like it, so you pulled something out of your @$$. That's what most journalism is like now.

As far as a pilotless aircraft, keep in mind the Turkish accident in Amsterdam, where failure of the autothrust caused a stall. Although the pilots didn't recover, without a human crew, an aircraft in that situation would definitely crash.
 
5w5flyer said:
As far as a pilotless aircraft, keep in mind the Turkish accident in Amsterdam, where failure of the autothrust caused a stall. Although the pilots didn't recover, without a human crew, an aircraft in that situation would definitely crash.
Click to expand...

:confused: So, even with pilots, they crashed......... but you're saying without pilots in that aircraft it would have really, really crashed? :rolleyes:
 
Flight school starts are way down, the military is shifting to UAV's.

9/11 coupled with the recession and age 65 has mitigated the problem somewhat, but looking at the upcoming retirement number for the majors as well as the global demand for skilled aircrews, the next ten years might just see a big shortage!
 
all part of the 2012 hiring boom
 
The word "shortage" is a political term, not an economic one. In economics when demand exceeds supply the price for the commodity will increase until supply equals demand. What we have been seeing the last 22 years is a change in the commodity that is considered acceptable in order to keep the supply up. Instead of a 3000 hour military trained pilot or the 6000 hour civilian pilot that I competed against for jobs back in 1988, I now compete against guys with 211 hours. Where do I come up with the number of 211? Well, that is how much time the guy I just flew with had when he got hired. Some day when he gets enough time to hold captain he will upgrade and take his rightful place ahead of me on the captain's list.

The requirements to be a pilot have continually gone down. Planes have been automated and the requirements to be a pilot have gone down and down and down. Rather then raise salaries to compete for available pilots, airlines merely lower the standards of what they will take in order to keep the starting salary the same.

What comes next? How about the airlines going to the government to produce more pilots. How about bringing more foreign pilots in? How about overseas flight academies sponsored by the US airlines where they train foreign pilots to eventually fly for US airlines? If they demand higher salaries they can threaten to end the program and send them back to India or the Philippines. The key will be to make the pilot dependent upon the job. The threat of termination will make the pilot willing to work for whatever the airline will give him. One key component has just been implemented, transfer of training records. Demand more money, put in a grevience over some issue and you can expect to get a quick checkride or 2. Make the pilot unemployable and you can control him.

Unfortunately, I wrote about this back in 1988. I wish I had been wrong.

There is a solution in my opinion.
 
MDWCrashPad said:
The word "shortage" is a political term, not an economic one. In economics when demand exceeds supply the price for the commodity will increase until supply equals demand. What we have been seeing the last 22 years is a change in the commodity that is considered acceptable in order to keep the supply up. Instead of a 3000 hour military trained pilot or the 6000 hour civilian pilot that I competed against for jobs back in 1988, I now compete against guys with 211 hours. Where do I come up with the number of 211? Well, that is how much time the guy I just flew with had when he got hired. Some day when he gets enough time to hold captain he will upgrade and take his rightful place ahead of me on the captain's list.

The requirements to be a pilot have continually gone down. Planes have been automated and the requirements to be a pilot have gone down and down and down. Rather then raise salaries to compete for available pilots, airlines merely lower the standards of what they will take in order to keep the starting salary the same.

What comes next? How about the airlines going to the government to produce more pilots. How about bringing more foreign pilots in? How about overseas flight academies sponsored by the US airlines where they train foreign pilots to eventually fly for US airlines? If they demand higher salaries they can threaten to end the program and send them back to India or the Philippines. The key will be to make the pilot dependent upon the job. The threat of termination will make the pilot willing to work for whatever the airline will give him. One key component has just been implemented, transfer of training records. Demand more money, put in a grevience over some issue and you can expect to get a quick checkride or 2. Make the pilot unemployable and you can control him.

Unfortunately, I wrote about this back in 1988. I wish I had been wrong.

There is a solution in my opinion.
Click to expand...


So, the first part of your post makes no sense and the second part is a pretty grim view of things.

6000 hours was competitive when I was hired in 11/07 and the 211 hour guy you speak of wont get a higher seniority number when he makes captain. Btw, did he have 211 hours hired at a major or commuter? Compare apples to apples.

Also, I think The US has, and will continue to have, the best training facilities in the world. There may be other carrriers that use foreign pilots but I serioiusly doubt the American citizen will be overlooked as a labor force just because some pilot in Indonesia will do it for food.

This is still the United States of America! I know that the current administration seems to be a little apologetic and directionless, and it feels to me that we have been in better shape but I think a lot will happen in a couple of years. Just as Carter brought about Ronald Reagan I think that in our next admiinistration there will be a renewed effort of the American spirit.

That's my opinion.
 
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Linedriver said:
So, the first part of your post makes no sense and the second part is a pretty grim view of things.

6000 hours was competitive when I was hired in 11/07 and the 211 hour guy you speak of wont get a higher seniority number when he makes captain. Btw, did he have 211 hours hired at a major or commuter? Compare apples to apples.

Also, I think The US has, and will continue to have, the best training facilities in the world. There may be other carrriers that use foreign pilots but I serioiusly doubt the American citizen will be overlooked as a labor force just because some pilot in Indonesia will do it for food.

This is still the United States of America! I know that the current administration seems to be a little apologetic and directionless, and it feels to me that we have been in better shape but I think a lot will happen in a couple of years. Just as Carter brought about Ronald Reagan I think that in our next admiinistration there will be a renewed effort of the American spirit.

That's my opinion.
Click to expand...

While I hope you're right, I think it's a bit pie-in-the-sky. I cannot in good conscience recommend this field to anyone under any circumstances. The falling pay, continued market uncertainty, cabotage threats, TSA theatrics, etc. make this occupation a fool's errand. The once lucrative incentives (early retirement, $$, travel bennies, etc.) to enter this field are long gone.
 
just talked wit h Kit, he is doing fine has a consulting company, don't think he will be going back into the job fiar business again. I loved the job fairs, get to see everyone have a few drinks and have a good time talking about airplanes
 
I still remember Nancy Stuke at United (I believe that was her name) and her 'vision' of hiring back in the day....glad I didn't make it at this point.
Darby did have a hell of a business at one point.
 

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