Kit Darbys AirInc goes TU!

[Fozzy]

He took the side of management in the Netjets contract fight. If I remember correctly he was the expert witness on the company side against the pilots.

What an azz clown.

Yup that is the man I remember. He lost what little credibility he had in that one day.
Funny, in one move 1900 pilots wanted him tared and feathered (trying to be civil).
He won't be missed.

 

[Lear70]

Kit gave me some solid advice that kept me employed a while back when I had some hard choices to make. Other than that, I never liked the way he sold the young and uninformed and they sunk a LOT of money into his products.

What ESPECIALLY P*SSES ME OFF about the timing on this is that he JUST made a LOT of money off new subscriptions. All the ALPA and NPA pilots who were furloughed in the last year had ALPA and the NPA pay for subscriptions to Kit Darby.

That's HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DUES MONEY that could have been spent on other things, now flushed down the toilet.

I'm wondering where that money went... (no, I probably already know where it went, and I'm not surprised, just disappointed).

Sorry to those who are left holding the bag after spending their own personal money on his products.

 

[Tripower455]

I was going to say, "What about the coming pilot shortage?" but you beat me to it.

LOL..... That's exactly what I thought when I read the thread title!

We've been waiting for that shortage for at least 25 years now!

 

[UndauntedFlyer]

The flight school business is in the toilet. University flight programs and major flight schools are closing. The military is trying to keep all their pilots from leaving and with the low wages currently being paid in industry, who would leave a military flying job.

When the economy recovers and age-65 kicks-in, there has to be lots of jobs for those who stay in the game. Trust me, the pilot shortage is really coming. It's about 5-years away and will last about 5-years n the cycle.

My advice: Be ready if you want live the dream. The only problem: You may need to live through a nightmare.

 

[Lear70]

The flight school business is in the toilet. University flight programs and major flight schools are closing.

Good riddance.

When the economy recovers and age-65 kicks-in, there has to be lots of jobs for those who stay in the game. Trust me, the pilot shortage is really coming. It's about 5-years away and will last about 5-years n the cycle.

My advice: Be ready if you want live the dream. The only problem: You may need to live through a nightmare.

My advice: Stay away from commercial aviation as a career. Now or the immediate future (less than 10 years).

There's a lot more to the formula than just pure retirements and economy. Most of us are betting that at least one major carrier won't make it through this downturn, and there's CURRENTLY over 4,000 pilots on the street without a job (ALPA data).

5 years of downturn then another 2-3 year upturn should put most of the out-of-work pilots back to work, just in time for the bottom 10% to get furloughed in the next downturn. Historically-speaking, the downturns are lasting a lot longer than the upturns every cycle, and I don't see any reason for that to improve.

MAYBE, in about 12-15 years, we'll see a big need for new pilots... For now, I would counsel anyone still in school or under age 30 to go into the medical field, computer field (especially video conferencing tech), or accounting or legal fields (which shows no sign of slowing).

Doing this for a career is ONLY for those who really love this as a *passion*, rather than just want a good career doing something fun. Is it PilotYIP that has that signature line on here: "Fly for a living because you love it. If you do it for the money or respect, you're going to be sorely disappointed" (or something like that).

 

[UndauntedFlyer]

5 years of downturn then another 2-3 year upturn should put most of the out-of-work pilots back to work, just in time for the bottom 10% to get furloughed in the next downturn.

Of course, remember that many of the group will find something else because they will not be able to weather the storm.

 

[pilotyip]

Of course, remember that many of the group will find something else because they will not be able to weather the storm.

and remember every pilot job at the top creates 5 pilot jobs in the chain. Much like 1993, all the major had 10K resumes, but they were all the same 10K pilots, As soon as 10K were hired, there a shortage.

 

[satpak77]

I would never recommend a flying job as a career to any future generation.

Maybe I would have in the go-go 90's, but not now. I would recommend flying for fun and pleasure, as my love for airplanes still exists.

I think the "jobs of tomorrow" will be

medical field (MD, RN, technology related)
legal (attorney, paralegal, etc)
tax/accounting
computer related, especially computer security
fraud prevention
entrepreneurship

 

[hockeypilot44]

We used to be respected. Now we're laughed at. Who in their right mind would accept a pension termination and 40 percent pay-cut? Any respectable professional would shut his/her company down or just stop working. We are a joke.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

I would never recommend a flying job as a career to any future generation.

Maybe I would have in the go-go 90's, but not now. I would recommend flying for fun and pleasure, as my love for airplanes still exists.

Who then, should fly our jets?

I think the "jobs of tomorrow" will be

medical field (MD, RN, technology related)
legal (attorney, paralegal, etc)
tax/accounting
computer related, especially computer security
fraud prevention
entrepreneurship

IT is the only one....

all the others are too competitive or are having their own moments as we are in aviation....

What happens when any of the above jobs you list, suddenly goes thru a radical transformation for the worst?

Do then find the next up and coming career and switch? How often do we play musical careers?


I am willing to work to defend, promote and protect the air line pilot profession....

 

[Lear70]

Who then, should fly our jets?

No one...

For a while at least. That's the whole POINT. Until there's a TRUE shortage of pilots, and management can't just whipsaw the regionals around OR use "force majeure" clauses to screw the mainline pilots, nothing will change.

One group "grows a set", there's 4,000+ pilots waiting without a job to take their place. Until that basic surplus of cheap talent goes away (and we all know most pilots are too self-serving to resist taking a sub-par compensation flying job), OR the airlines get released from the restrictions of the RLA (unlikely), we're pretty much screwed.

The days of pilots having too much self-respect to whore themselves out are pretty much over. The "Me" generation in the right seats at most regionals right now isn't helping, either.

Personally, I'd LOVE to see a TRUE pilot shortage...

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

No one...

For a while at least. That's the whole POINT. Until there's a TRUE shortage of pilots, and management can't just whipsaw the regionals around OR use "force majeure" clauses to screw the mainline pilots, nothing will change.

One group "grows a set", there's 4,000+ pilots waiting without a job to take their place. Until that basic surplus of cheap talent goes away (and we all know most pilots are too self-serving to resist taking a sub-par compensation flying job), OR the airlines get released from the restrictions of the RLA (unlikely), we're pretty much screwed.

The days of pilots having too much self-respect to whore themselves out are pretty much over. The "Me" generation in the right seats at most regionals right now isn't helping, either.

Personally, I'd LOVE to see a TRUE pilot shortage...

Never going to happen.....

The plan to use foreign labor will be enacted long before there is a "shortage"

 

[UndauntedFlyer]

Any flying job is better than sitting in a cubical.

There will always be flying jobs because somebody has to fly all these airplanes that are being built. People just have to travel and they are not going to drive from ORD to LAX. Air transportation is hear to stay, its not going away.

Trust me, the jobs will be there and in 5-years there will be a shortage of those who are qualified and available to take them.

The pilot shortage is coming. Be ready, don't give up.

To believe otherwise is to believe the world will end and the stock market will drop to zero.

 

[pilotyip]

love your style

Any flying job is better than sitting in a cubical.

There will always be flying jobs because somebody has to fly all these airplanes that are being built. People just have to travel and they are not going to drive from ORD to LAX. Air transportation is hear to stay, its not going away.

Trust me, the jobs will be there and in 5-years there will be a shortage of those who are qualified and available to take them.

The pilot shortage is coming. Be ready, don't give up.

To believe otherwise is to believe the world will end and the stock market will drop to zero.

I bet you really like flying airplanes and can't understand all the whinning about a great job of being paid to do something you really look forward do every day you go to work. Looking back on 45 years I have had a ball, and am coming out the other end in pretty good shape. I am truely lucky to have never hated my job.

 

[satpak77]

(touching on a few posts above)

I like my job. Heck, I darn near (but not 101%) love it. I love airplanes. No, college is not needed to fly airplanes.

With that said, would I recommend a young man or woman, say, entering college, in today's economic environment, (etc etc), to pursue a career as a professional pilot? The answer is either yes or no. And for me, it is no, I would not.

I would encourage something else.

 

[Lear70]

Any flying job is better than sitting in a cubical.

There will always be flying jobs because somebody has to fly all these airplanes that are being built. People just have to travel and they are not going to drive from ORD to LAX. Air transportation is hear to stay, its not going away.

Trust me, the jobs will be there and in 5-years there will be a shortage of those who are qualified and available to take them.

The pilot shortage is coming. Be ready, don't give up.

To believe otherwise is to believe the world will end and the stock market will drop to zero.

OK sir, I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to cut you off... you've obviously had WAAAYY too much to drink tonight.

I'm glad you're that excited about it. I love my job, too. If I didn't, I'd be back in law school in a heartbeat. I just hate what the INDUSTRY has become, know that it won't likely change, and if you have friends, and they're REALLY you're friends, you'll show them ALL the bad stuff that goes with the good.

I personally will celebrate every time I hear another puppy mill has closed their doors. Force them to go through the university programs and get a degree at the same time, make it as expensive as hell, show them how little they'll make the first 1/4 of their career and how they have no hope of repaying their student loans until they're in their 50's, praying they're somewhere long enough to really build that 401(k) and MAYBE have a retirement...

Think we'd get as many pilots out here?

 

[PCL_128]

Kit believed and promoted the MPL program....so does Jim Rice (VP ALPA). I spoke to both of them and they admitted it to me. Every pilot should be afraid if that passes.

His name is Paul Rice, not Jim, and he doesn't support MPL, he just believes that ALPA and IFALPA should be involved in the development process to prevent it from becoming a dangerous program that trains dangerous new pilots.

 

[pipe]

Sounds like the same "damage mitigation" philosophy that led to Age 65 becoming an unequivocal disaster for everyone under 50. The APA hard-line approach seems to have more historical success.

PIPE

 

[njcapt]

The flight school business is in the toilet. University flight programs and major flight schools are closing. The military is trying to keep all their pilots from leaving and with the low wages currently being paid in industry, who would leave a military flying job.

I LOL'd at this, as it is a snapshot of numerous points in my aviation history. From personal experience, it could be 1984, when I was a ink-wet-on-my-PPL new guy at one of the imploding University aviation programs. During all 1986 I couldn't buy an instructing job in either Oklahoma or the Chicago area, despite having 300 hours dual-given and three successful PPL applicants. Regionals were loaded with furloughed Continental and Frontier pilots eager to keep current and employed.

It could be 1994, when there were >10,000 hugely qualified pilots from Eastern, Pan Am, Midway, Braniff, American, USAir, etc. fighting for the few airline positions available including a few willing to pay for jobs at Kiwi and ValuJet.

It could be 2004, when nearly every major airline used the bankruptcy process to shred contracts and the subsequent leverage to furlough thousands.

It also applies now, in 2009, when thousands of highly qualified furloughees and terminated Corporate pilots are scrambling for a handful of positions at jetBlue and Southwest or forced to take jobs in Asia and the Mid-East.

One common thread running through this is Kit Darby and FAPA/Air inc. During each of these industry cock-ups I attended at least one of his seminars, largely in order to get some face time with airline reps. I generally blew off the Saturday morning dog-and-pony show and showed up before the afternoon grip-and-grin session, but each time managed to catch Kit's proselytizing about the upcoming pilot shortage. Every time. Looking at the hundreds of fresh-faced airline noobs sucking up every work of Kit's, I wanted to get all Howard Beale in Network on them. The notion of an upcoming American pilot shortage turning the industry around is wishful thinking of the worst kind, totally unsupported by the events of the past 50 years and the current global economic environment.

I have to agree with Rez that any pilot shortage in the future, no matter how miniscule, will be quickly filled by relaxation of foreign worker restrictions. In today's global economy, global business leaders will provide whatever leverage is necessary to keep their travel supply chains intact, regardless of what political party happens to be in charge at the time. Currently there is a pilot vacuum in Asia and India (but don't blink, that could change almost overnight and has to a certain extent in Dubai) that is requiring the use of expat pilots. Don't think for a minute that it won't happen here.

 

[Papa Woody]

I think Chimpanzees will fly airplanes in the near future....

....apparently, they can do lots of stuff already.