Joe's confident

[lowecur]

Lowecur, you crack me up. I know. You missed the important stuff in that story:


1) Leonard is now talking about a "partnership" with ATA for gates/slots/codeshare . . . that should keep JetBlue from whining about the LGA/DCA slots, since AirTran will be doing those flights as a codeshare- just like Eagle flys under American slots, or CHQ under Delta's. They won't have any legal basis to fight that argument. This sounds like slight of hand to me.

2) AWA is now saying "if" they make an offer, it will be "more complex". Big change from a few weeks ago. OK!

3) If you really sold shares based on a Goldman Sachs downgrade (pfff!) and your fears about our Balance Sheet, you are even more foolish than I thought. Why? This deal does not take much cash from us in the beginning. You only have $338M on 9/30, and my estimate is you lose $16M this Q, and $25M next Q. Only $40. mil or so, that will leave you with around $260M at the end of the 1st Q not counting what losses from the integration of MDW operation from ATA all the while generating immediate revenue from the codeshare with ATA. But Joe said you wouldn't break even for a year. That flying, by the way, will greatly reduce our Florida exposure, and our North-South exposure to Q1 and Q3 slow periods. When that happens, that same clod from Sachs will be touting AirTran stock, and charging you a commission when you buy your shares back. Sheesh. Too much speculation for my blood at this price.

4) Those gates aren't "in play" until ATA surrenders them, so even if we just do the deal as a codeshare, the gates aren't even necessarily available for SWA or anyone else. Maybe all parties will agree to set a couple of gates aside for SWA, and everyone will be happy. More slight of hand. Good luck!

Who knows? Not me and definitely not you.

NANANANANNANANANNANANNANANA, NUNUNUNUNUNUNUNUNUNUNUNUNU. Remember, even a broken clock is right twice a day!

 

[B73av8r]

I believe TY said lowturd! ..........And I would have to agree with him.

 

[PHXFLYR]

If I were an ATA employee,I wouldn't look at an AWA offer as your salvation. This outfit has a rather long history of trying to get something for nothing as witnessed by AWA VP Eliese Eberwain statment a few posts back eluding to the fact that any offer for ATA will be "very complex"; corporate-ese for "we ain't got no money,honey......." My guess is any offer made by AWA will be laughed right out of the court room by all concerned,as it should be...after all "money talks and "Bea Es" walks and the only one showing up at the dance with any greenbacks is Air Tran.



PHXFLYR

 

[IAHERJ]

I think all the CEO's involved in this deal are trying to sway public opinion in their direction as much as Lowcur is. Of course Joe is going to be confident about the deal in the press. Gary Kelley is going to voice his opinion and concerns as he sees fit as well. AWA, in my opinion is going to submit a deal at the last minute and it will be backed by Bonderman. Who knows what will become of all of this. All I know is that I have a frined who I'd like to get on at AirTran before ATA starts to park planes, if that ends up being the case. Good luck to all and I hope all of us at AirTran, AWA, JetBlue etc. keep in mind that this could be any of our companies hurting like ATA in the future. Growth is nice if you have a plan to do it profitably. We pilots can only hope our management teams have a clear plan for our futures.

IAHERJ

 

[lowecur]

I believe TY said lowecur! ..........And I would have to agree with him.

Absolutely correct, Sir! Now go have another drink, but remember you will be removed from the cockpit if you get past security.

 

[Lindy]

City of Chicago

I think the majority of individuals are missing the wild card -- Mayor Daley and the City of Chicago. It is a daily occurrence (pun intended, of course) for a statement to be issued from the city about the gates, ATA, etc.

Legally, the gates belong to the city of Chicago. The City controls who will or will not be a lessee. Now, if you listen to the statements, Daley is concerned about the loss of aviation employment in Chicago (including ORD) and he does not want to have another "Midway" of years past (re: Midway Airlines and their bankruptcy).

This would leave me to believe that SWA will recieve less gates than what they desire, say 2 or 3 more; if AWA has the "sweetest" deal for Chicago residents, I could see the City deciding to lease 8 or 9 of the remaining gates to them; of course, AirTran will receive 2 or 3 also. As for jetBlue, if they aren't going to offer the City of Chicago much in the way of hiring and other committments, I don't see them being much of a player.

Waiting to see what the City of Chicago attorneys challenge to the sale/auction next week.

Note: Until ATA surrenders the gates back to the City of Chicago, they have rights to the gates. It would be interesting to see if Mickelson would go head-to-head with Daley, i.e., not surrending the gates to Chicago to force [insert "deal" of your choice].

Obviously, there is more to the sale/purchase/liquidation than MDW gates, however, legally, that will be the stickler in this process.

 

[lowecur]

Well in yet another comical statement from lowcur. The posturing every few days to try and influence his ego is a riot.

By the way, Judge Lorch is an Indiana boy. Lowcur, master of the obvious, Who would-a-thunk that an "Indiana boy" would be presiding over an Indiana court. Your insight amazes me!

You idiot, quit stealing my signature style. Yes, Judge Lorch was raised in Indiana. Now there are quite a few other US Bankruptcy Court judges that did not grow up in their respective jurisdictions. My point is politically he will look out for Indiana's interests before Illinois. Of course his main concern is the creditors of ATA, right?

 

[xanderman]

I just can't be that mean so... Deleted.

 

[Cactus73]

If I were an ATA employee,I wouldn't look at an AWA offer as your salvation. This outfit has a rather long history of trying to get something for nothing as witnessed by AWA VP Eliese Eberwain statment a few posts back eluding to the fact that any offer for ATA will be "very complex"; corporate-ese for "we ain't got no money,honey......." My guess is any offer made by AWA will be laughed right out of the court room by all concerned,as it should be...after all "money talks and "Bea Es" walks and the only one showing up at the dance with any greenbacks is Air Tran.
PHXFLYR

I could disagree with you more.

1. Why should we put up a lot of cash? Creditors in BK cases know to expect a very small percentage on the dollar. If the AAI deal goes through the aircraft lessors are left holding the bag. The airplanes go to the desert and they get stuck with the payments. The talk on here that ATA could use the airplanes is not quite true considering they are looking to lay-off almost half their pilots and FA's once the AAI deal is inked.

2. It's a complex deal.......because it's a complex deal. AWA would have to negotiate new terms with almost every creditor and get them to go along with it. They would have to present a business plan with clear revenue targets and goals. They would have to figure out how to shed the L1011 charter side of the business and get someone to step-up to the plate and continue to fill contractual terms with the government. Both airlines have ATSB loans that have to be contended with. Then you have the city of Chicago and the gate issue. I somehow doubt that Daley would stand in the way of a deal that protects the most amount of jobs.

3. Money doesn't always talk in BK court. The judge has to look at who is getting the $87 million offered by Airtran, what's it going to be used for, and the welfare of the employees of the company. The IND hub plan is a joke and most see right through it. I would seriously doubt that AWA would keep much going in IND other than the MX base and a few select flights.

4. I don't want my company paying too much. If someone wants to offer more than we think it is worth...let them. In the end, AWA can walk away and let the highest bidder enjoy their new toy.

5. If we are going to get laughed right of court, then why would the ATA MEC bother meeting with our management and MEC fairly often during the last few weeks? Why would Parker be spending so much time in IND and Kirby in Chicago?

6. People are talking as if Air Tran is in so much better financial shape compared to AWA. Last time I looked both airlines are losing money. Both have about the same relative cash positions. AWA does have a high interest ATSB loan. Air Tran has a very expensive aircraft order for 737's and they need places to put them. Air Tran was just downgraded to underperform due to their Florida markets. It seems Air Tran needs this deal more than AWA, hence the large cash offer. If Air Tran doesn't get the deal they need to start shopping for another hub. If AWA doesn't get the deal it really is no big deal since they don't have many airplanes on order with no place to park them.


I stand by my opinion that this is a good deal for AWA, ATA, and the creditors.

We can speculate all we want but until the bids are in on Friday and the court decides next Thursday....this is all a moot discussion.


My gut tells me the Air Tran deal is a bad thing for the ATA pilots. I know one very well and he is hoping really bad that the AWA deal can be worked out.

 

[lowecur]

I just can't be that mean so... Deleted.

Thanks, Xand!