Jetblue takeover rumor still alive and well....

[BILL LUMBERG]

Kinda wish I didn't.

Good stuff J32.......Great analysis!!

FWIW...A check airman I flew with told me that the Jetblue question was posed at their last check airman meeting to Jim Whitehurst our COO at Delta.....He said although attractive, the bidding war that would ensue for Jetblue really makes them think twice....they got burned by the PanAM deal and in the runup to BizEx getting bought by AA....

The final words were, the debt is too high to assume and perhaps jetBlue may close the doors (fail) on their own and then items will be up for sale.....

then again, his lips were moving....

As far as failure goes, I laugh at the speculation kinda like when an Indy guy said to me "When UAL goes out, We'll clean up at Dulles.....".....too many blurred futures out there....good luck to us all...

 

[lowecur]

Delta's motivation:
Its not the terminal, its not the 190's. Its simply to eliminate a competitor. If they buy us, they don't have to compete with us. Didn't I already say that? Is there an echo in here?

Congress Motivation:
Eliminating JetBlue will do alot to aleviate the mess in the Northeast. You'd pull capacity out of all 3 NY metro airports and that would go along ways to silencing the public who is becoming howling mad over the delays in and out of NY. Sound familiar? I said that too.

Now it wouldn't be a cakewalk, as Schumann and a few other people down in Washington (including GLs buddy) would have a big problem pulling the plug on a low cost carrier and giving carte blanche to the Legacy's up and down the East Coast to charge a premium. DL has a history of flooding newly started LC carrier routes till they pull out, and then jack'n the fares back up.

Things that make you go hmmmm:
1) Neeleman has been run off. Was it because he jacked up the 2/14 debacle, or was it ultimately because he might stand in the way of a merger/buyout? Good new point.

2) The Vice Chairman of the Board position was created because Neeleman has seemingly walked away from the board too. Read the 8k thats states the Vice Chariman's duties. Oh yeah... the New Vice Chairman owns a Venture Capital group that specializes in Merger/Aquisition/Buyout activity. Another interesting point. Can't get his own firm involved, but he definitely understands the process. I think what is more clear is that Neeleman cannot be counted on to handle the daily activity should a hostile buyer surface.

3) Management just publishes the new merger protections for the masses. Did they do it because it would make a deal harder to do? Because they simply care for the crewmember? Or was it created because IT WAS GOING TO HIT THE FAN when the 8k was published that delatiled the Executive plan? What do you think would happen if they quietly put the Executive plan in place and tried to hide it while giving nothing to the masses? Excellent.

So... for about $4 Billion, Delta could eliminate a huge competitor, gain 100 A320's to swap for 737's, get access to the 190 order book, get a new terminal in JFK, gatespace all up and down the East Coast, and promise to Congress to eliminate the traffic problems in and out of the NY area. All my thoughts exactly, but still only about a 20% chance to get it by anti-trust. I think a better solution to the problem and one that is going to happen if this deal doesn't see the light of day is a mandate to remove at least half of the RJs(< 50 seats) from the three airports. Most are used just to tie up gates to monopolize the airport and in some cases create chaos for the LC carriers.

The sky isn't falling... but it does look noticeably closer than it did yesterday.

Oh yeah... I forgot to add... and our stock price just keeps going up. Kinda like someone might be accumulating it.

Watch out for that private equity deal if DL backs off.

imp:​

 

[On Your Six]

Hey Lowecur,

Don't you have some insurance policies to sell?


Watch for a private equity firm to buy JB, Frontier and Spirit, combine them into one entity (presence in the NE, SE and West Coast), and then squeeze costs out of employee salaries/benefits to Skybus levels to improve margins in advance of an IPO. The low-cost blood bath is coming...........

 

[AlbieF15]

How about I buy a bunch of shares of JB in hopes of a buyout/merger.

With my investment savvy, that should pretty much guarantee for my JB buddies a merger will NEVER happen.

 

[Flyboi]

Question. . .

How about I buy a bunch of shares of JB in hopes of a buyout/merger.

With my investment savvy, that should pretty much guarantee for my JB buddies a merger will NEVER happen.

(From a previous post)
Blue folks,

I think you found out this "princess" you've been sleeping with the last 5-6 years really turned out to be the "slut" your buddies warned you about...

So, you still prepping your "buddies" to sleep with that "slut"?

 

[A350]

Rumors are just that.....rumors.

Of course, if there is a merger, we can count on our brothers and sisters at the other carrier to treat us with dignity and respect.

LOL.

A350

 

[AlbieF15]

So, you still prepping your "buddies" to sleep with that "slut"?

Over 400 succesfully so far.

Some are "clients", some are "friends", but they all get our best efforts. Just like the folks we help at SWA, CAL, FDX, Frontier, UPS, Netjets, DAL, Alaska, and a handful of other places.

But thanks for asking...

I was hired by JB in 2001. I was really tempted, as I thought their culture and people were top notch. I even know several guys who in 03/04 went there dispite offers from SWA. I have kept in touch with some great people who are now there, including a bunch of captains.

I was profoundly disappointed with the salary improvements offered earlier this year. I was disappointed to see DN run off, even if he wasn't the perfect guy for ops. I very much objected to any modification of the 8 in 24 that was proposed a while back. I'm an ALPA member--JB in non-union. That doesn't mean I hate them, the company, or wish them ill will.

And...I wish those guys the best for the long haul. Mergers stink for everyone, and I hope JB can succeed on their own accord. I want my friends there to be successful, and its also good for business.

An interesting aside--some of my former JB clients have come back to me to work again to get ready for SWA, FDX, and UPS. Obviously, they face a different future than those guys who joined the company 2-3 years back (or more).

None of that changes the amount of effort I put into helping guys and gals get ready for interviews--at jetblue, Delta, or anywhere else.

Does that answer your question?

 

[roadrunnerblue]

Delta's motivation:
Its not the terminal, its not the 190's. Its simply to eliminate a competitor. If they buy us, they don't have to compete with us.

Congress Motivation:
Eliminating JetBlue will do alot to aleviate the mess in the Northeast. You'd pull capacity out of all 3 NY metro airports and that would go along ways to silencing the public who is becoming howling mad over the delays in and out of NY.

Things that make you go hmmmm:
1) Neeleman has been run off. Was it because he jacked up the 2/14 debacle, or was it ultimately because he might stand in the way of a merger/buyout?

2) The Vice Chairman of the Board position was created because Neeleman has seemingly walked away from the board too. Read the 8k thats states the Vice Chariman's duties. Oh yeah... the New Vice Chairman owns a Venture Capital group that specializes in Merger/Aquisition/Buyout activity.

3) Management just publishes the new merger protections for the masses. Did they do it because it would make a deal harder to do? Because they simply care for the crewmember? Or was it created because IT WAS GOING TO HIT THE FAN when the 8k was published that delatiled the Executive plan? What do you think would happen if they quietly put the Executive plan in place and tried to hide it while giving nothing to the masses?

So... for about $4 Billion, Delta could eliminate a huge competitor, gain 100 A320's to swap for 737's, get access to the 190 order book, get a new terminal in JFK, gatespace all up and down the East Coast, and promise to Congress to eliminate the traffic problems in and out of the NY area.

The sky isn't falling... but it does look noticeably closer than it did yesterday.

Oh yeah... I forgot to add... and our stock price just keeps going up. Kinda like someone might be accumulating it.

J32,

Itotally agree with everything you state.

Lumberg,

The fact that your COO says that he thinks 4 B would be too expensive, is code for "we are looking at it". USair found 10B somewhere to make a bid for DL and they are not exactly the rich guy on the block

 

[Lampshade]

Delta's motivation:
Its not the terminal, its not the 190's. Its simply to eliminate a competitor. If they buy us, they don't have to compete with us.

Congress Motivation:
Eliminating JetBlue will do alot to aleviate the mess in the Northeast. You'd pull capacity out of all 3 NY metro airports and that would go along ways to silencing the public who is becoming howling mad over the delays in and out of NY.

Things that make you go hmmmm:
1) Neeleman has been run off. Was it because he jacked up the 2/14 debacle, or was it ultimately because he might stand in the way of a merger/buyout?

2) The Vice Chairman of the Board position was created because Neeleman has seemingly walked away from the board too. Read the 8k thats states the Vice Chariman's duties. Oh yeah... the New Vice Chairman owns a Venture Capital group that specializes in Merger/Aquisition/Buyout activity.

3) Management just publishes the new merger protections for the masses. Did they do it because it would make a deal harder to do? Because they simply care for the crewmember? Or was it created because IT WAS GOING TO HIT THE FAN when the 8k was published that delatiled the Executive plan? What do you think would happen if they quietly put the Executive plan in place and tried to hide it while giving nothing to the masses?

So... for about $4 Billion, Delta could eliminate a huge competitor, gain 100 A320's to swap for 737's, get access to the 190 order book, get a new terminal in JFK, gatespace all up and down the East Coast, and promise to Congress to eliminate the traffic problems in and out of the NY area.

The sky isn't falling... but it does look noticeably closer than it did yesterday.

Oh yeah... I forgot to add... and our stock price just keeps going up. Kinda like someone might be accumulating it.

Good assessment.

Poison Pills are a double edge sword. The board may try to stop a take over with them (PP) but when they need a takeover to save the place, the company will die on the vine (nobody will buy) and the employees will be left out in the cold without jobs.

 

[IronCityBlue]

Good assessment.

Poison Pills are a double edge sword. The board may try to stop a take over with them (PP) but when they need a takeover to save the place, the company will die on the vine (nobody will buy) and the employees will be left out in the cold without jobs.

You are correct about the nature of poison pills. What JB execs just did however, is not one.

Execs are alwasy richly compensated no matter what. Promotion, demotion, merger, resignation to "pursue beter opportunities" and the rarely admitted to termination of services, all are the same thing: multimillion dollar parachutes.

Simply putting industry standard executive compensation on paper will not stop, deter or slow any merger that otherwise would have occured or been considered.

As for what the rank and file got, that won't be a deterrent either. No one can absorb an operation our size without needing to immediately take a large number of our crewmembers, even if they don't take all of them. The rest could be offered a position they wouldn't want/can't accept (like a move or a demotion) and will voluntarily seperate, thus negating their little severance package. The remaining number of workers who are terminated (if any) won't ammount to a blip on the balance sheet. It will very quickly and without a thougt be written off as a minor cost of doing business.

 

[CKJET]

Everything I needed to know I learned in the FE seat

1. Don't cross a picket line
2. All the young good looking FA's wprk for some other airline.
3. The Capt. waves good bye to the pax after any good landing, I wave after any bad one, who actually made the landing does not matter.
4. Don't ever invest your own money in a airline or airline stock.
5. No contract is binding, there is a loophole for everything.
6. Love to fly hate to work.
7. Whenever things get bad go back to number 6 but never ever ever think that the company will take care of you should something happen. Nothing is binding.

 

[Spectre]

Alright, let's not lose any sleep over this rumor. First, mergers are not easy. It helps if the company being merged wants to be merged. Take for example USAir and America West. Now, recently failed attempts like the USAir/Delta and Midwest/Air Tran occur because one party does not want a merger. JetBlue would fight any merger unless it was a benefit for JetBlue. Congress would not easily allow Delta to buy up its major competitor. Delta has a BOEING fleet and would not want 100 A320s. Delta doesn't need the E190 as it has a large regional network already, some flying the E170. Delta's major plan is to grow internationally not domestic flying. Now, Northwest would be a better choice as they need a larger east coast network. Northwest has about 150 A320/A319s and A330s on order. It is already a major Airbus airline. NWA needs a DC-9 replacement and the E190s on order would be perfect. Now if Delta and NWA would have a bidding war for JB, all the JB pilots with their stock options will be rich and could care less about the merger.

 

[Guam360]

what about USAir or UAL? Both have 320's and are not big in JFK.

 

[Oh-ryan]

How about I buy a bunch of shares of JB in hopes of a buyout/merger.

With my investment savvy, that should pretty much guarantee for my JB buddies a merger will NEVER happen.

Buy High, Sell Low I always say.

Serves me right for taking investment/real estate advice given by twin "little people" brothers on a 3am infomercial.

Now that Eric Estrada... he seems to know what he is talking about. I need to buy some of that "lakefront" property in Arkansas he is always pushing.

 

[Heavy Set]

Alright, let's not lose any sleep over this rumor. First, mergers are not easy. It helps if the company being merged wants to be merged. Take for example USAir and America West. Now, recently failed attempts like the USAir/Delta and Midwest/Air Tran occur because one party does not want a merger. JetBlue would fight any merger unless it was a benefit for JetBlue. Congress would not easily allow Delta to buy up its major competitor. Delta has a BOEING fleet and would not want 100 A320s. Delta doesn't need the E190 as it has a large regional network already, some flying the E170. Delta's major plan is to grow internationally not domestic flying. Now, Northwest would be a better choice as they need a larger east coast network. Northwest has about 150 A320/A319s and A330s on order. It is already a major Airbus airline. NWA needs a DC-9 replacement and the E190s on order would be perfect. Now if Delta and NWA would have a bidding war for JB, all the JB pilots with their stock options will be rich and could care less about the merger.

My friends at Delta say that their COO, Whitehurst, loves the E190 and said they needed some "yesterday." They relayed a story to me that apparently Whitehurst told one of their DL Shuttle FOs while in the cockpit at LGA that he would love to have E190s at mainline compared to the Shuttle America E170 that they were looking at right next to them. He acknowledged that the RJs, including the E170, CR7, and the fifty seaters, just can't bring in the needed revenue. The FO put that comment out on the Delta pilot website apparently. It sounds like Delta could get some planes they need, the E190, and a terminal they want, while cutting down a competitor in the process. The non-union thing also makes it look appealing. But, it may be a tough sell to a lot of people.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

J32,

Lumberg,

The fact that your COO says that he thinks 4 B would be too expensive, is code for "we are looking at it". USair found 10B somewhere to make a bid for DL and they are not exactly the rich guy on the block

I agree on the code ......that's why I said his lips were moving.......