jetblue EMB-190 pay??!!!

[lowecur]

The long term prospects of USA remaining in anything that resembles it's current size and shape are not good. I agree, but they will sell assets to survive if necessary. They will be here next year. Bet taken, where are you located so I can get my free beer. South Florida.......you got a deal.

No, I am talking to you and the ironic thing is that you answered. What I am saying is that they are planning on bring 4 totally new, different airframes to the market place at one time, the 170/175/190 &195. Are you telling me that this can be done with out ANY difficulties? No, but the commonality in the a/c will pay dividends as the other airframes come on-line. The major problems with the 170 have been Honeywell avionic software. By the time the 190 comes on line, those problems should be ironed out.

Really what percentage of 319s do you think are sold Vs the 320? You, have to admit they are still popular. Even better how may A318's are out there? Now you're changing the subject. History has taught us that the smallest airframe traditionally sells the worst. Are you saying that this is not the case? No, you just changed the subject to suit your arguement.

Then why are you arguing that LUV will eventually purchase the smaller airframe? The 190 is too close to the 737NG in size. It's not a good match for LUV, although I believe they will purchase some 190's to supplant the 735's. If history has taught us one thing more people will be flying in the future. LUV can create demand with their ticket prices if they have the supply. You said "the CASM's on the 190 were on par with those of the 175." If the costs of flying the 195 are even remotely close to the 170/175, why choose the smaller aircraft? Jetblue seems to think along those lines. Jetblue, at present has a much larger average stage length than WN. The 190 fills a gap for B6 better than a 78-86 pax 175. The 175 will fill the gap better than a 190. The 100 seater is too close in size to the 737NG.

Again you ignore the question, how did they do in a fare war with LUV? The same way they did in a fare war with DL in ATL.....they lost.You can talk slots out of LGB, the bottom line is they got their butts kicked because LUV has the assets to sell $39 seats to and from LAS all day long. I'm not bashing B6. In fact it's smart to get out. Why put an aircraft into a money losing fare war when you can get higher yield someplace else? But yet you continue to suggest this, is a good idea. No, I'm saying that it is inevitable that the two will match up much more in the next 5 years, and B6 will do just fine as they build out their network of 190s. My point is, you can put the 190 or the A320 or AA can put an MD80 up against LUV. Whomever whatever, they will lose. They are then low, cost 800 pound guerilla that drives the domestic fare structure. Sorry, but you are talking in the present tense, and that will just not be the case in the next five years, unless WN pilots take a 15-20% haircut.

As far as gate space, it doesn't come for free. It costs big money. IF UAL ever decides to reduce on the West coast those gates will no doubt be part of an asset sale, not just returned for free so that B6 can have them. I think assets can be had quite cheap in 7.

Can you please provide a link to where Embraer compairs the costs of the 737-800 to the 190? Now it's the 738. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the 737NG, 738, or 739 would cost considerably more to maintain than the 736. As airframes and powerplants increase in size, that's just a fact. And stop with the economies of scale arguement.


Now what about other components like brakes and pumps? How many rebuilt hyd pumps are available for the Embraer 170 series? What about vendors capable of rebuilding brakes? These are huge advantages that the 737 has and will take years if ever for the 170 series to catch up. Sorry, but I disagree. Just watch the orders for the E-series roll in the next 3 years. If the 737 had all these advantages, the 736 would be doing much better.

I have to say, that I'll bet you have your application in at WN. Your arguements are a givaway as an apologist for both AMR and WN. Wherever you end up, it will suit your arguement. If you do get to WN, are you gonna vote for the 15-20% haircut?.......not if you are already in the 737 seat....you'll vote for the purchase of the E-series.

 

[enigma]

South Florida.......you got a deal.

Lowecur is Publishers alter ego.

LOL

enigma

 

[G4G5]

LowCur
Bet taken, where are you located so I can get my free beer. South Florida.......you got a deal.
G4G5
Sounds good, I am in NY
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- No, but the commonality in the a/c will pay dividends as the other airframes come on-line. The major problems with the 170 have been Honeywell avionic software. By the time the 190 comes on line, those problems should be ironed out.

G4G5
The same commonality the 737 series has? The Same commonality that LUV incorporates with their single type airframe philosophy? With 1000+ 737's out there it will be quite sometime before the ERJ series ever has the advantages that the 737 series has.
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Really what percentage of 319s do you think are sold Vs the 320? You, have to admit they are still popular. Even better how may A318's are out there? Now you're changing the subject. History has taught us that the smallest airframe traditionally sells the worst. Are you saying that this is not the case? No, you just changed the subject to suit your arguement.
G4G5
No I am not changing the argument. You just don't like the fact that I am correct. The A318 is a loser. My point is, history has shown us that the smallest airframe has never been good seller. Do you dispute this? If your answer is No then why do you still possess this fantasy that LUV would actually purchase the 170/175? Especially when JetBlue has already gone with the larger 190 series? The 170 is the equivalent of the 737-600 or the A318
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Then why are you arguing that LUV will eventually purchase the smaller airframe? The 190 is too close to the 737NG in size. It's not a good match for LUV, although I believe they will purchase some 190's to supplant the 735's.


G4G5
This is your opinion. The fact is that JetBlue operates the A320 which is similar in size and capacity to LUV's 737's Tell me again which aircraft did Neelman chose?
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Jetblue, at present has a much larger average stage length than WN. The 190 fills a gap for B6 better than a 78-86 pax 175. The 175 will fill the gap better than a 190. The 100 seater is too close in size to the 737NG.

G4G5
As LUV expands the fact is that their stage lengths are increasing. LUV is 31 years old and what have they recently started flying, transcons? ISP to LAS, BWI-OAK. This is also evident from the fact that they are now purchasing the improved fuel economy winglet 737's along with their recent upgrade in thrust to their 737 engines. Do you deny this fact? With trends indicating that LUV stage lengths are increasing, what do you think the future will hold?

Let's try to keep in mind the fact that LUV started with smaller point to point service with small stage lengths. What aircraft have they been successfully doing this with? So if the larger 737 has helped to create America's most profitable airline, why is it that you seem to think that JetBlue can beat SWA on smaller stage lengths with a smaller unproven aircraft from the jungle?
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My point is, you can put the 190 or the A320 or AA can put an MD80 up against LUV. Whomever whatever, they will lose. They are then low, cost 800 pound guerilla that drives the domestic fare structure. Sorry, but you are talking in the present tense, and that will just not be the case in the next five years, unless WN pilots take a 15-20% haircut.

G4G5
No, I am referring to the future. Their is plenty of market share up for grabs. LUV does not need to do a thing to pay rates. All they have to do is hope that USAir and UAL don't get rid of their current mgt teams. As long as LUV continues to expand and take market share from the majors they will continue to be profitable. As long as they are profitable it will be extremely difficult to get any pay relief from any of the employee groups. If they growing at their current rate, getting the pay reduction that you suggest will never happen.
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As far as gate space, it doesn't come for free. It costs big money. IF UAL ever decides to reduce on the West coast those gates will no doubt be part of an asset sale, not just returned for free so that B6 can have them. I think assets can be had quite cheap in 7.

G4G5
Do me a favor and list the valuable assets that have been acquired in Ch7? It NEVER happens! If an asset such as gates or slots has value it is liquidated by the Airline in Ch11 in an effort to raise cash to avoid Ch7. How did DAL and UAL attain the Pan Am assets? What happened with TWA? Was anything of value divested in Ch7? No. To think that Jetblue will be able to get assets cheaply in Ch7 as you suggest is absurd. They are going to have to bid for them. Last check they had 600 million in cash on hand AA had $3.5 billion and who knows what LUV would do if they were forced to?
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Can you please provide a link to where Embraer compairs the costs of the 737-800 to the 190? Now it's the 738. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that the 737NG, 738, or 739 would cost considerably more to maintain than the 736. As airframes and powerplants increase in size, that's just a fact. And stop with the economies of scale arguement.

G4G5
Why give up on the economies of scale argument. It's a simple fact of basic economics, or is that something you chose to ignore when it doesn't work for you? Do you dispute the FACT that the 737 has this advantage over the ERJ series? Where is that link that I have asked twice for? The one you keep referring to?
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Sorry, but I disagree. Just watch the orders for the E-series roll in the next 3 years. If the 737 had all these advantages, the 736 would be doing much better.

G4G5
No, if given the choice of the 736 vs the 738 which has the better CSM's? The fact still remains that the 737 parts/engine overhaul/training yada yada will be cheaper for years to come.

 

[lowecur]

G4G5
The same commonality the 737 series has? The Same commonality that LUV incorporates with their single type airframe philosophy? With 1000+ 737's out there it will be quite sometime before the ERJ series ever has the advantages that the 737 series has. Me thinks the only major advantage between the aged 737 and the NG series is the type rating for the pilots.
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G4G5
No I am not changing the argument. You just don't like the fact that I am correct. The A318 is a loser. My point is, history has shown us that the smallest airframe has never been good seller. Do you dispute this? If your answer is No then why do you still possess this fantasy that LUV would actually purchase the 170/175? Especially when JetBlue has already gone with the larger 190 series? The 170 is the equivalent of the 737-600 or the A318. That is the biggest croc. Both of those a/c have a dismal percentage of orders for their respective series. Check out the 170 orders. I believe I read the other day that the 175 will have it's certification by the end of this year.
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G4G5
This is your opinion. The fact is that JetBlue operates the A320 which is similar in size and capacity to LUV's 737's Tell me again which aircraft did Neelman chose? Last time I looked the 320 seats 156 & the 737NG seat 137. You telling me 19 seats is not a large difference?
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G4G5
As LUV expands the fact is that their stage lengths are increasing. LUV is 31 years old and what have they recently started flying, transcons? ISP to LAS, BWI-OAK. This is also evident from the fact that they are now purchasing the improved fuel economy winglet 737's along with their recent upgrade in thrust to their 737 engines. Do you deny this fact? With trends indicating that LUV stage lengths are increasing, what do you think the future will hold?

Let's try to keep in mind the fact that LUV started with smaller point to point service with small stage lengths. What aircraft have they been successfully doing this with? So if the larger 737 has helped to create America's most profitable airline, why is it that you seem to think that JetBlue can beat SWA on smaller stage lengths with a smaller unproven aircraft from the jungle? You really believe that LUV is going to compete as they expand their transcons? They have no amenities, and no assigned seating. Listening to a SWA F/A crack jokes is fine for 1 hr, but 5 or 6 hours? Give me a break. Last I checked the CASM for LUV was 8.09, and I believe B6 was 6.04.

Put the 190 with 2+2 seating and IFE against a WN 737, and I rest my case.
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G4G5
No, I am referring to the future. Their is plenty of market share up for grabs. LUV does not need to do a thing to pay rates. All they have to do is hope that USAir and UAL don't get rid of their current mgt teams. As long as LUV continues to expand and take market share from the majors they will continue to be profitable. As long as they are profitable it will be extremely difficult to get any pay relief from any of the employee groups. My point exactly. They will probably have a similar situation as the FA's when their contract comes due. Hopefully, the pilots will put the company balance sheet first, unlike the FA's. You're thinking is typical of pilots who think as long as an airline is making money, we should get a raise. An airline needs consistant 10-15% profit margins to maintain long term viability.
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G4G5
Do me a favor and list the valuable assets that have been acquired in Ch7? It NEVER happens! If an asset such as gates or slots has value it is liquidated by the Airline in Ch11 in an effort to raise cash to avoid Ch7. How did DAL and UAL attain the Pan Am assets? What happened with TWA? Was anything of value divested in Ch7? No. To think that Jetblue will be able to get assets cheaply in Ch7 as you suggest is absurd. They are going to have to bid for them. Last check they had 600 million in cash on hand AA had $3.5 billion and who knows what LUV would do if they were forced to? Good point.
-----------------------------------------------------

G4G5
Why give up on the economies of scale argument. It's a simple fact of basic economics, or is that something you chose to ignore when it doesn't work for you? Do you dispute the FACT that the 737 has this advantage over the ERJ series? Where is that link that I have asked twice for? The one you keep referring to? The link of the comparison to the 800? I guess the 600 wasn't good enough. Can we agree the trip cost for the 800 is more than the 600? I will concur the 800 has a slight edge on seat costs.
-------------------------------------

G4G5
No, if given the choice of the 736 vs the 738 which has the better CSM's? The fact still remains that the 737 parts/engine overhaul/training yada yada will be cheaper for years to come. Ask ATA about the 738. The problem is they just don't serve the small to medium size market very economically. The 190 will.

Next time don't take over a week to answer. You'd think you had to work for a living.

 

[G4G5]

Lowcur
Me thinks the only major advantage between the aged 737 and the NG series is the type rating for the pilots.

G4G5
Aged? Where do you get that from? Maybe if they were operating 737-100 but all of LUV's 737-200's will soon be gone, replaced by a fleet of over 700 aircraft. The average age of their fleet is far from what I would call aged. The technology of the 737-800 is such that it still competes directly with the newer A320. Care to explain the Commonality thing again? Let's face facts Luv has far greater commonality with their 737 fleet then any ERJ purchaser has. If you don't agree name a few future ERJ operators that will have over 700+ COMMON type aircraft in their fleet.
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Lowcur
That is the biggest croc. Both of those a/c have a dismal percentage of orders for their respective series. Check out the 170 orders. I believe I read the other day that the 175 will have it's certification by the end of this year.

G4G5
The biggest croc? Now you are beginning to lose credibility. "Check out the 170 orders" Tell me which airframe has greater orders the 170 or the 190? The only reason airlines like MAA are only operating a hand full of 170 because that's all they can get. Their are no 190's. Boeing sold a bunch of 727-100, 737-100 and 747-100 too but the larger airframe has always proved to be the best seller. Getting tired of your that's a croc response, try some facts next time if you want to refute this.
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Both of those a/c have a dismal percentage of orders for their respective series.
G4G5
So are you trying to tell us that both airbus and boeing just decided to build an aircraft that they knew would never sell? The A318 and the 736 were both perceived to be big sellers by their respective mfr.'s just like the 170/175.
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Lowcur
Last time I looked the 320 seats 156 & the 737NG seat 137. You telling me 19 seats is not a large difference?

G4G5
No what I am saying and apparently the folks at SWA are saying is that 137 seats is just perfect to fit between the A320 and the 190 that JetBlue is ordering. Proving that their really is no need for them to add another fleet type.
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You really believe that LUV is going to compete as they expand their transcons?
G4G5
Absolutely. What have they been doing over the past 3 years? Doing nothing but adding longer stage lengths. The trend will no doubt continue. Why add winglets and increased thrust to the engines if you are planning on shorter stage lengths?
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They have no amenities, and no assigned seating. Listening to a SWA F/A crack jokes is fine for 1 hr, but 5 or 6 hours? Give me a break. Last I checked the CASM for LUV was 8.09, and I believe B6 was 6.04.

Put the 190 with 2+2 seating and IFE against a WN 737, and I rest my case.

G4G5
You can rest anything that you want. The one thing that airlines like LUV and Airtran have shown us is that price rules. People are more then willing to sit on an aircraft with no IFE if they are going to save money. Nobody goes on vacation for the movie or the blue chips (or peanuts) served in coach. The airline is viewed as just a method of getting fro point A to point B, people want to do it the cheapest way they can. If you think that the IFE will draw people in over price you are way off base. IFE only helps if the prices are the same, destinations and points of departure are similar and arrival and dept. times are close. I see it all the time. I live on Long Island and 9 out of 10 folks would rather take LUV out of ISP Vs driving not JFK for the same price it''s not worth the hassle. IFE will help Jetblue vs the legacy carriers but not against LUV.

So what was your point about the CASM's? With the purchase of additional A320's and the addition of 100 new 190's and another fleet type, Jetblue will be able to maintain a 6.04 CASM? or could it possibly go up? Maybe a couple of cents over the next 5 years that you seem to be so keen about.
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Ask ATA about the 738. The problem is they just don't serve the small to medium size market very economically. The 190 will.

G4g5
Are you nuts? Ask SWA how well the 737 has done serving the small to mid sized market


Yep having to work for a living can really cut into ones internet time.

 

[enigma]

OK, I can't stand this anymore. Will you guys PLEASE learn how to use the quote function? PLEASE. I'm way too easily confused to keep up with the last couple of pages.

enigma

 

[ivauir]

lowecur .....

Dude,
I know you like pulling our chains over here but enough! The sky is not falling at WN and while JB is a cool company and will no doubt be a contender look at the tale of the tape:
- WN is making good money
- Once you adjust CASM for stage length NOBODY (including JB) touches WN
- We do this with 4 different flavors of 737 and they are not all new and under warrenty
- As the fleet becomes more and -700/24k ified our costs will continue to get pushed DOWN (where are JBs maintence costs going?)
- Our labor costs are stable and known (what will happen at JB as the labor force gets longevity, or heaven forbid a union?)
- Your "haircut" prediction will turn out like ALL of your predictions
- hard to argue for a pay cut when we are making money (hard to ask for a raise when your highest paid ....). I expect something "creative" for our section 6. I also expect profit sharing, not to see WN colors on an RJ and more flamebait from you ....

 

[lowecur]

Soooo, let me go "readers digest" so Enigma won't have to keep referring back.

Do the 733 and 737NG share any major parts commonality that would save WN money? NO. Therefore, other than type sharing amongst pilots, where's the cost advantage? Sure once the 733 is gone, they will eventually have the parts commonality that is supposedly saving them so much money G4, but not for a long time.

The arguement of whether the 170 or 190 will receive more orders is a fabrication of G4's literary imagination. What started out as a comparison between the 318, 736, against the 170, has now turned into a comparison between all first born. My original thoughts still remain, the 736 and 318 are losers, and the 170 is a winner.

Will the transcons for WN be a winner? I don't see how any sane person would take WN transcon when they have the option of traveling in a reserved seat for the same price, and the addition of IFE.

ISP has ns to Florida & Vegas. These are the only matchup with B6. Are you telling me that Islanders prefer WN to B6 on these routes. You better check the schedule for WN, and their weak frequency ns. What a laugh.

Casm, let's see. On an individual a/c basis, I would say the 733 is much higher than the 190, and the 737NG is slightly lower. Can the 190 go head to head with the 737NG, and steal customers from WN at the same pricing. The simple answer is yes. The IFE plus 2+2 seating will assure that. Add in the payroll savings, and subtract the futures hedging from WN, and it's no contest. Don't believe me, sit back and watch the show by 2007.

I rest my case.

 

[lowecur]

Dude,
I know you like pulling our chains over here but enough! The sky is not falling at WN and while JB is a cool company and will no doubt be a contender look at the tale of the tape:
- WN is making good money. No, they need to make 10 to 15% profit margins.
- Once you adjust CASM for stage length NOBODY (including JB) touches WN Good point, but I'd be interested to see if that's still true this Q. Also, I believe the hedging is included in CASM, so a true CASM is not reflected.
- We do this with 4 different flavors of 737 and they are not all new and under warrenty. Great mgt.
- As the fleet becomes more and -700/24k ified our costs will continue to get pushed DOWN (where are JBs maintence costs going?) The twain shall meet someday, but that's a long ways off.
- Our labor costs are stable and known (what will happen at JB as the labor force gets longevity, or heaven forbid a union?) They will go up, but the Ejet will be their savior and distinct advantage over WN.
- Your "haircut" prediction will turn out like ALL of your predictions We shall see.
- hard to argue for a pay cut when we are making money (hard to ask for a raise when your highest paid ....). I expect something "creative" for our section 6. I do too. The option of buying the Ejet.
- I also expect profit sharing, not to see WN colors on an RJ and more flamebait from you ....Oh, that would spoil my fun.

.....

 

[ivauir]

..The twain shall meet someday, but that's a long ways off.
...

Dude the twain HAVE met and despite all of the JBs cost advantages (young labor, new jets ...) WN CASM is cheaper on like stage lenghts. THAT is the key to this whole thing. The E jet is interesting, but in 2012 WN will be twice its current size flying 100% 24K/winglet -700s. It makes NO sense to add an airtcraft type that is similar in size but reduces our cost advantage by taking away fleet commonality - WN has been/is/and will be all about COST. Adding any aircraft type currently imagined would increase our costs ... so forget it.

BTW ISP to Florida keeps filling up ... transcons keep filling up. Maybe IFE/assigned seat is important to you, but there will always be somebody that wants to save a buck and bring a lap top or DVD player.