jetblue EMB-190 pay??!!!

[G4G5]

Lowcur,
"I don't think Embraer agrees with you. In fact if you go the Embraer web site, I believe the rule of 70-110 specifically shows that the 190 is 25% cheaper to maintain than the 736. Which mean the 737NG is probably 30% more expensive."

Am I missing something, do you work for Embraer?

First off who fly's the 737-600? If Embraer is using that aircraft as a comparison then most folks will just laugh and move on. The 737-800 is what Boeing is selling either that or the -700. The 600 is just a pig in sheeps clothing eveyone knows that it was just developed to compete with the A319 which no one purchases. Lets be realistic, if you are going to purchase a 737 why not get the one that has the lowest CSM. Your comparison is against the 737 with the highest CSM.

30% more for the same airframe, engines and more seats? Hello. I am guessing that all of the airlines that own the -800 and -700 would beg to differ with you.

I typically respect what you have to say but in this case you are way off base. Asking me to use Embraer data against the 737, something tells me if I go to Boeing or Airbus's web site they might have some data that refutes what you are saying.

 

[Dizel8]

Were do I start, hmmm, shat flying thick and fast here.

The pilots and management at jetblue have enjoyed a mutually beneficial relationship. We are not them, they are not us. We fly airplanes, they manage a company. As long as it was a good relationship, it worked. Now, we have seen something, that the pilots at jetblue feel is unfair and then it no longer is mutually beneficial. That of course can be changed, to once again be mutually beneficial, however, time will show if it is.

The reason for seeing lowering pay at the passenger carriers, is vastly increased competetion. Something which the freighters are not seeing, yet at least. There is a reason, why both UPS and FDX went gaga over DHL/Astar/Deutsche Post, because it would mean increased competetion. What has transpired, fortunately, is a consolidation in the box business. ABX is gone, one less player. Flying Tigers disappeared, one less player. No new large cargo airline has been entering the field for a while, yet the same cannot be said for the passenger side of the business. BTW, UPS got slaughtered trying to fly people.

Unions probably are a neccesary evil, but that is more to create a unified voice in solving issues when the group gets to large, not neccesarily the greed "problems". The union needs to do way more than "show me the money", they also needs to be cognizant of the economic ramifications to the company, least they eat their young or thier own livelyhood. All to often, they try to extract MAX pay, regardless of company competetive concerns. One must strike a fair balance.

Yes, the pilots at jetblue are disappointed with the 190 payscale, mind you, we are upset prior to the a/c being on the property, as opposed to feigning sadness after we laid off another 300-500-1000 guys. Will management listen? Maybe, maybe not, but if they say, that they would feel personal failure, if a union was required, then they will. If not, then we have our answer and let the chips fall were they may!

I am sure FDX was "US and WE" once upon a time, but as we saw with the last "skirmish", Fred said he would outsource lift for all FDX boxes, unless the pilots caved and what did the group do! So please, Tony, climb of your horse, it is getting tired!

 

[lowecur]

Lowcur,
"I don't think Embraer agrees with you. In fact if you go the Embraer web site, I believe the rule of 70-110 specifically shows that the 190 is 25% cheaper to maintain than the 736. Which mean the 737NG is probably 30% more expensive."

Am I missing something, do you work for Embraer? No but I own lots of shares at around $14.

First off who fly's the 737-600? If Embraer is using that aircraft as a comparison then most folks will just laugh and move on. First of all they wanted to compare both the 717 and 736, as these were Boeings closest offerings in the 100 seat catagory. Second of all, please explain to me how the 737NG would be the better comparison for maintenance? And don't use the arguement that economies of scale dictate a lower maintenance cost. That arguement can be easily overcome when large orders for the 190 begin to role in. The 737-800 is what Boeing is selling either that or the -700. The 600 is just a pig in sheeps clothing eveyone knows that it was just developed to compete with the A319 which no one purchases. Lets be realistic, if you are going to purchase a 737 why not get the one that has the lowest CSM. Your comparison is against the 737 with the highest CSM. What does that have to do with individual maintenance costs? CASM is the total cost. Embraer has broken it out on an individual basis. The rule of 70 to 100 gives you seat/trip cost comparison, maintenance cost comparison, and structural design efficiency comparisons based mono on mono.

30% more for the same airframe, engines and more seats? Hello. I am guessing that all of the airlines that own the -800 and -700 would beg to differ with you.

I typically respect what you have to say but in this case you are way off base. Asking me to use Embraer data against the 737, something tells me if I go to Boeing or Airbus's web site they might have some data that refutes what you are saying. Well as far as I know they don't, which usually means they can't. Otherwise, you would have some nice lawsuits by now.

And quit using my blue ink to reply.

 

[Dizel8]

BTW Tony, according to the data I have from airline pilot pay, it appears FDX is not the highest paid box hauler, so y'all are dragging down the industry. Considering that FDX keeps posting extraordinary profits, why is that?

 

[G4G5]

Knock, Knock, Hello McFly, Is anybody home? We just had what most people would consider an earthquake to the rate structure. Luv is not the guinea pig, MAA is with the 170. They will either have to adjust the 737 rate structure by 15-20% to compensate, or buy the 175(I know I have mentioned the 190, but the 175 is better suited for WN). Which choice do you think that SWAPA will take? You guessed it, bring the 175 for $75. per hour. Now you know why male tigers eat their young.

G4G5
Who cares about MAA, tell me again who will they be supplying feed for this time next year? How many 175's are they currently operating? You mention the 175 let's look at Airbus. Knock Knock McFly? How popular is the A319? Let's look at Boeing How popular was the 737-500? Or how popular is the Boeing 737-600? The smallest version of a popular airframe has NEVER been the best seller. Are you tying to tell us that history is wrong? That for the first time the 175 will out sell the 190? How many 175's did JetBlue order? No myy guess is that IF Southwest ever decides to get into another airframe the 175 will NOT be the one they choose.Anybody home?
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How did B6 do the last time they tried a West coast fare war?
First of all, the 320 is not made for short haul travel, where 737NG is very capable, and WN has the infrastucture to support it. The 190 is made for short, or medium long haul travel.

G4G5
You FAILED to answer the question, They got their butts kicked AND so has anyone else (Shuttle by UAL) who has tried to go up against LUV. The bottom line is LUV can afford to sell $39 seats to and from LAS all day long. Why would anyone go head to head against that? You can spew all the BS you want their is not enough yeild to justify a fare war with LUV the assets would be better used somewhere else.
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How much yeild is Jetblue going to make on the 190 when they are filling seats at $39 going againsta full SWA 737 at $39. This sounds to me like the stupidest thing that they could do with the 190.
It's called IFE + 2/2 seating.......the aesthetic advantage. Think it won't work?.....just sit back and watch what happens by 2007.
G4G5
Ok, By 2007 LUV will have approx 600, 737 flying and you are telling me that the 190 will some how create a cost advantage enough to go head to head against LUV's 737's. You want to purchase the Brooklyn bridge?
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The 737 still has tremendous adventages over the 190. Their is no cheaper commercial aircraft in the world to do maintenance on.
I don't think Embraer agrees with you. In fact if you go the Embraer web site, I believe the rule of 70-110 specifically shows that the 190 is 25% cheaper to maintain than the 736. Which mean the 737NG is probably 30% more expensive.
G4G5
Embrear may not agree with me but this little aircraft mfr from Seattle does.
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Due to the large numbers of 737's flying the economies of scale create huge pricing pressure on aircraft parts and supplies.
Now if AMR is going to order three to four hundred of these 190's, and DL will probably do the same........how long do you think it will take for economies of scale to balance?
G4G5
Years, and that is why LUV and AMR are waiting to decide. A paper aircraft is completly different then one that is actually on the line producing revenue on a daily basis. If you have the clout that LUV and AMR do, why be the first ones to test the waters?
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Sure the 190 will be under warranty but how long will it take to get a spares supply built up around the country (like the 737). What about the earning curve associated with the introduction of a second type. How many Certified Repair stations at various airports around the country are going to have trained maint techs who can repair the 190? This is not Boeing tech support, no it's 1800 call the jungle to see if they have the spare. I could go on and on. It's extremely clear that LUV has done the research and decided that this is not a good idea (for them).
Don' kid yourself.

G4G5
Who's kidding themselves. Embraer has had the 135/145's out for years are you trying to tell us that the support for them is equivallent to what Boeing offers? Oh and now you want me to believe that the 190 will instantly be just the same as the 737? Hello McFly?
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An engine overhaul, brakes, rotables and spares will be cheaper on the 737 for years to come. Training costs for a single type are lower, LUV pilots come with their 737 types. LUV still can leverage fuel contracts better then anyone in the industry.
How much longer do you think that will last?
G4G5
Years. Let's take the G4 that I fly. It has RR Tays on it. Their are over 500 G4's currently flying not to mention all the Foker 100's that are flying with RR Tays. FACT, the cost to overhaul the GE's on the 737 is still cheaper then the cost to overhaul the RR TAY. The same goes for brakes and associated rotable compenents.

Training, what could be cheaper then FREE. All LUV pilots come with their type ratings.

Are you actually going to try and tell us that their is an airline out there that has the resources available to get fuel at better hedged prices then LUV? If you are then you creditability is dropping quickly
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Flying one type still makes more sence. At a time when USAir and the other majors are ripe for the picking LUV has placed their largest 737 orders. What had B6 done? Gone after the smaller 190 market. Where is the higher yeild? Attacking USAir in PHL or starting a west coast fare war?
Never said where they would start there first, I just pointed out that LAS would be easy pick'ns for them. They will start in the East first with replacment of the 320's in upstate NY. They will then move to a city in the mid-west....probably St. Louis or MDW.......depending how much longer ATA will hang in there.

G4G5
Start in Rochester? Buffalo? Burlington? Of course but who are they competing against?
A midwest city? Humm the last time I checked LUV was pretty well filling the void in STL. & where they don't go AA Eagle does. Care to look it up for yourselve? Do you actually think that their is enough high yeild still available in STL?
MDW? LUV owns MDW and where they don't ATA does. this would be nothing short of CRAZY, every single comment I have ever read about Jetblue and Chicago starts with ORD not MDW.

So far you have suggest attacking 3 LUV strong holds (LAS, STL & MDW) not to mention a guranteed fare war on the West coast. I am sure glad Neeleman decides where the 190 goes and not you.

 

[G4G5]

Lowcur,
I think the 190 will be a big seller so your stock price is still safe.

BUT to try and convince us that LUV is the slightest bit concerned about the 190 competition is a bit off base. The 737-800/700 will compete with the USAir'sA320's in PHL and the JetBlues 190's, just fine.

 

[TonyC]

... as we saw with the last "skirmish", Fred said he would outsource lift for all FDX boxes, unless the pilots caved and what did the group do! So please, Tony, climb of your horse, it is getting tired!

Exactly. So you DO know how devastating the lack of an effective union can be. Bravo! Chalk that one up to FPA, the inhouse union that paved the way for the real union.

BTW Tony, according to the data I have from airline pilot pay, it appears FDX is not the highest paid box hauler, so y'all are dragging down the industry. Considering that FDX keeps posting extraordinary profits, why is that?

It's that way because UPS had an effective union when we did not. Negotiations are in progress as we speak. We'll talk when they conclude, why don't we?


(Besides, G4G5 said UPS was "[t]he most profitable cargo operation in the US." We shall see! )

 

[lowecur]

G4G5
Who cares about MAA, tell me again who will they be supplying feed for this time next year? Are you insinuating that UAIR will liquidate by then? I'll take that bet. How many 175's are they currently operating? So your point is the 175 would be a totally new a/c from the 170, and subject to a whole new shakeout than the 170. That's funny. You mention the 175 let's look at Airbus. Knock Knock McFly? Now you're talking to yourself. How popular is the A319? Pretty popular. Let's look at Boeing How popular was the 737-500? Or how popular is the Boeing 737-600? The smallest version of a popular airframe has NEVER been the best seller. Are you tying to tell us that history is wrong? That for the first time the 175 will out sell the 190? No. How many 175's did JetBlue order? None. No myy guess is that IF Southwest ever decides to get into another airframe the 175 will NOT be the one they choose.Anybody home? Yup, the 175 is a better fit for LUV. They have a 137 seat a/c, and it's my opinion an 86 seat a/c would compliment the 737NG better than a 100 seat a/c....ie: 156 seat a/c & 100 seat a/c at B6. The 175 casm is on par with the 190, and trip costs are 22% better. Maintenance costs are also 15% cheaper than the 190. The downside is range, and an 1800nm would fit LUV's route model of high frequency/short trips perfectly. It would also give them a few more city pairs than the 190, thus allowing LUV to move into some smaller markets and take on an untapped carrier like NWA from Minneapolis and procede west along the northern border, or even take on Independence Air with their CL 65's.

How did B6 do the last time they tried a West coast fare war? Well I believe the decision at LGB to reduce B6's slots to 22 had something to do with that deal. But they still run a handful of flights down from OAK that do quite nicely, thankyou. B6 has chosen to use their assets for most of the slots at LGB for transcon. Are they making money? Well most of the flights are full, but yields are small, but I believe yes they are. The key for B6 by 2007 on the West Coast will be attrition of the other majors. Gates will begin to open up an LAX as UAL, UAIR, ATA, DL reduce flights or liquidate. As the infrastructure opens up, you will see B6 take on WN directly......it's inevitable.

The 737 still has tremendous adventages over the 190. Their is no cheaper commercial aircraft in the world to do maintenance on.
Embrear may not agree with me but this little aircraft mfr from Seattle does. Then why don't they publicly refute Embraer on their website? I guess that would cost too much money.

G4G5
Who's kidding themselves. Embraer has had the 135/145's out for years are you trying to tell us that the support for them is equivallent to what Boeing offers? Oh and now you want me to believe that the 190 will instantly be just the same as the 737? Hello McFly? Stop talking to yourself.

G4G5
Years. Let's take the G4 that I fly. It has RR Tays on it. Their are over 500 G4's currently flying not to mention all the Foker 100's that are flying with RR Tays. FACT, the cost to overhaul the GE's on the 737 is still cheaper then the cost to overhaul the RR TAY. The same goes for brakes and associated rotable compenents.

Training, what could be cheaper then FREE. All LUV pilots come with their type ratings.

Are you actually going to try and tell us that their is an airline out there that has the resources available to get fuel at better hedged prices then LUV? If you are then you creditability is dropping quickly. Talk about being all over the place, stop rambling. Buying futures is dependent upon the continued up-tick of oil. If it continues, then LUV will do quite nicely. If it flatens out or recedes, then the advantage eventually goes away.


So far you have suggest attacking 3 LUV strong holds (LAS, STL & MDW) not to mention a guranteed fare war on the West coast. I am sure glad Neeleman decides where the 190 goes and not you. Hello, McFly......there has just been a major flip on rates. Do you think the pilots at LUV will agree to a 15-20% drop in pay to compete against the 190? The next 5 years for LUV are going to be difficult. If you thought the FA contract hassle was a problem for LUV, wait till you get a load of what happens with the pilots contract. Have you noticed that there has been very little discussion about this contract from WN pilots on this board. I'll bet if you go to the SWAPA board, it's like a Chinese fire drill of activity, as they discus what they can do to protect their pay rates. Again, you will see why male tigers eat their young.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

I don't think that ALPA is the answer.

If you notice:
The best run airline in the US has their own union. SWA
The largest airline in the US has their own union, AA
The most profitable cargo operation in the US has their own union, UPS.

ALPA may not be te answer but some sort of union representaton is.

All three of these in house unions buy services from ALPA. Just becuase AA is the largest doesn't mean they have a great union.

ALPA isn't the wunderkind either. There are no silver bullits.

However, there are no career carriers out there that don't have representation. Is a union a Jb enevitable (sp)? The jBPA??

ALPA might not happen for jB due to it's solid foundation in the legacy carriers. However, if ALPA wants to be a long term player it needs to change with the sea......

 

[80drvr]

BTW Tony, according to the data I have from airline pilot pay, it appears FDX is not the highest paid box hauler, so y'all are dragging down the industry. Considering that FDX keeps posting extraordinary profits, why is that?

Just to be clear, when discussing the E-190, we're not talking about jockying for the industry leading spot. I'll let the numbers speak for aircraft in this 100 seat class speak for themselves:

12 YR Capt:
AA 141
AirTran 156
Hawaiin 148
Midwest 144
ATA 120
NWA 191
Frontier 156
Jet Blue 89

And now a few 70 seaters at the regionals:

Comair 94
Air Wisconsin 88
Horizon 96
Mesa 82 (CRJ900)
Mesa 76 (CRJ700)
Skywest 78
Eagle 80
Mesaba 81
ASA 86