jetblue EMB-190 pay??!!!

[G4G5]

Lowcur,
I think the 190 will be a big seller so your stock price is still safe.

BUT to try and convince us that LUV is the slightest bit concerned about the 190 competition is a bit off base. The 737-800/700 will compete with the USAir'sA320's in PHL and the JetBlues 190's, just fine.

 

[TonyC]

... as we saw with the last "skirmish", Fred said he would outsource lift for all FDX boxes, unless the pilots caved and what did the group do! So please, Tony, climb of your horse, it is getting tired!

Exactly. So you DO know how devastating the lack of an effective union can be. Bravo! Chalk that one up to FPA, the inhouse union that paved the way for the real union.

BTW Tony, according to the data I have from airline pilot pay, it appears FDX is not the highest paid box hauler, so y'all are dragging down the industry. Considering that FDX keeps posting extraordinary profits, why is that?

It's that way because UPS had an effective union when we did not. Negotiations are in progress as we speak. We'll talk when they conclude, why don't we?


(Besides, G4G5 said UPS was "[t]he most profitable cargo operation in the US." We shall see! )

 

[lowecur]

G4G5
Who cares about MAA, tell me again who will they be supplying feed for this time next year? Are you insinuating that UAIR will liquidate by then? I'll take that bet. How many 175's are they currently operating? So your point is the 175 would be a totally new a/c from the 170, and subject to a whole new shakeout than the 170. That's funny. You mention the 175 let's look at Airbus. Knock Knock McFly? Now you're talking to yourself. How popular is the A319? Pretty popular. Let's look at Boeing How popular was the 737-500? Or how popular is the Boeing 737-600? The smallest version of a popular airframe has NEVER been the best seller. Are you tying to tell us that history is wrong? That for the first time the 175 will out sell the 190? No. How many 175's did JetBlue order? None. No myy guess is that IF Southwest ever decides to get into another airframe the 175 will NOT be the one they choose.Anybody home? Yup, the 175 is a better fit for LUV. They have a 137 seat a/c, and it's my opinion an 86 seat a/c would compliment the 737NG better than a 100 seat a/c....ie: 156 seat a/c & 100 seat a/c at B6. The 175 casm is on par with the 190, and trip costs are 22% better. Maintenance costs are also 15% cheaper than the 190. The downside is range, and an 1800nm would fit LUV's route model of high frequency/short trips perfectly. It would also give them a few more city pairs than the 190, thus allowing LUV to move into some smaller markets and take on an untapped carrier like NWA from Minneapolis and procede west along the northern border, or even take on Independence Air with their CL 65's.

How did B6 do the last time they tried a West coast fare war? Well I believe the decision at LGB to reduce B6's slots to 22 had something to do with that deal. But they still run a handful of flights down from OAK that do quite nicely, thankyou. B6 has chosen to use their assets for most of the slots at LGB for transcon. Are they making money? Well most of the flights are full, but yields are small, but I believe yes they are. The key for B6 by 2007 on the West Coast will be attrition of the other majors. Gates will begin to open up an LAX as UAL, UAIR, ATA, DL reduce flights or liquidate. As the infrastructure opens up, you will see B6 take on WN directly......it's inevitable.

The 737 still has tremendous adventages over the 190. Their is no cheaper commercial aircraft in the world to do maintenance on.
Embrear may not agree with me but this little aircraft mfr from Seattle does. Then why don't they publicly refute Embraer on their website? I guess that would cost too much money.

G4G5
Who's kidding themselves. Embraer has had the 135/145's out for years are you trying to tell us that the support for them is equivallent to what Boeing offers? Oh and now you want me to believe that the 190 will instantly be just the same as the 737? Hello McFly? Stop talking to yourself.

G4G5
Years. Let's take the G4 that I fly. It has RR Tays on it. Their are over 500 G4's currently flying not to mention all the Foker 100's that are flying with RR Tays. FACT, the cost to overhaul the GE's on the 737 is still cheaper then the cost to overhaul the RR TAY. The same goes for brakes and associated rotable compenents.

Training, what could be cheaper then FREE. All LUV pilots come with their type ratings.

Are you actually going to try and tell us that their is an airline out there that has the resources available to get fuel at better hedged prices then LUV? If you are then you creditability is dropping quickly. Talk about being all over the place, stop rambling. Buying futures is dependent upon the continued up-tick of oil. If it continues, then LUV will do quite nicely. If it flatens out or recedes, then the advantage eventually goes away.


So far you have suggest attacking 3 LUV strong holds (LAS, STL & MDW) not to mention a guranteed fare war on the West coast. I am sure glad Neeleman decides where the 190 goes and not you. Hello, McFly......there has just been a major flip on rates. Do you think the pilots at LUV will agree to a 15-20% drop in pay to compete against the 190? The next 5 years for LUV are going to be difficult. If you thought the FA contract hassle was a problem for LUV, wait till you get a load of what happens with the pilots contract. Have you noticed that there has been very little discussion about this contract from WN pilots on this board. I'll bet if you go to the SWAPA board, it's like a Chinese fire drill of activity, as they discus what they can do to protect their pay rates. Again, you will see why male tigers eat their young.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

I don't think that ALPA is the answer.

If you notice:
The best run airline in the US has their own union. SWA
The largest airline in the US has their own union, AA
The most profitable cargo operation in the US has their own union, UPS.

ALPA may not be te answer but some sort of union representaton is.

All three of these in house unions buy services from ALPA. Just becuase AA is the largest doesn't mean they have a great union.

ALPA isn't the wunderkind either. There are no silver bullits.

However, there are no career carriers out there that don't have representation. Is a union a Jb enevitable (sp)? The jBPA??

ALPA might not happen for jB due to it's solid foundation in the legacy carriers. However, if ALPA wants to be a long term player it needs to change with the sea......

 

[80drvr]

BTW Tony, according to the data I have from airline pilot pay, it appears FDX is not the highest paid box hauler, so y'all are dragging down the industry. Considering that FDX keeps posting extraordinary profits, why is that?

Just to be clear, when discussing the E-190, we're not talking about jockying for the industry leading spot. I'll let the numbers speak for aircraft in this 100 seat class speak for themselves:

12 YR Capt:
AA 141
AirTran 156
Hawaiin 148
Midwest 144
ATA 120
NWA 191
Frontier 156
Jet Blue 89

And now a few 70 seaters at the regionals:

Comair 94
Air Wisconsin 88
Horizon 96
Mesa 82 (CRJ900)
Mesa 76 (CRJ700)
Skywest 78
Eagle 80
Mesaba 81
ASA 86

 

[AT7^DRIVER]

This 100 seat pay scale just set all of the new pay scales at all of the regional airlines. Leo Mullin must be proud, along with Fred Greed and David Neeleman. They are all eating lunch at the golf club in Westchester County---all laughing with big cigars in their mouths! Think about it---every 70 seat contract will be put up next to this 100 seat one for Jetblue---and the company negotiator will ask, "listen fellas, you are flying a smaller plane and Jetblue is the benchmark. But, I will give you an extra dime an hour on per diem....." Sad but true. The current Jetblue guys shouldn't care--they will be flying A320s for the rest of their careers---and I know they did not decide on those figures. The Midatlantic 70 seater pay scales weren't as applicable because of the shape USAir was in when they created their pay scales--but Jetblue is doing well--and they still lowballed.(jetblue management)


Bye Bye--General Lee

You hit the nail on the head General.

 

[CatYaaak]

BTW Tony, according to the data I have from airline pilot pay, it appears FDX is not the highest paid box hauler, so y'all are dragging down the industry. Considering that FDX keeps posting extraordinary profits, why is that?

As you have alluded to, flying boxes and flying passengers are two completely seperate industries, similar aircraft notwithstanding. What's next, someone who's never had experience with cabin crews or pax giving sage advice on whether a pilot should help the F/As tidy up a cabin, or the criteria and appropriate use of a Captain's authority to de-plane a passenger? Nah, that wouldn't happen...would it?

 

[TonyC]

As you have alluded to, flying boxes and flying passengers are two completely seperate industries, similar aircraft notwithstanding. What's next, someone who's never had experience with cabin crews or pax giving sage advice on whether a pilot should help the F/As tidy up a cabin, or the criteria and appropriate use of a Captain's authority to de-plane a passenger? Nah, that wouldn't happen...would it?

I concede, CatYaaak.

Indeed I fly boxes, and I therefore am unworthy.

I bow to your superior wisdom.

 

[:-)]

Finally

Dave and his boy's in an effort to be CHEAP may have just put the nail in their coffin. The rates they have established will no doubt set the presedence for the industry. When Arpey comes calling to Hunter he will get the pay rates he wants. For those of you who don't know, Hunter is the new APA President that has already signaled that he is willing to cave in on the 190 and the pay rates. Just ask any AA pilot. If Hunnibel had been elected I would feel different but he was not and Hunter was. The bottom line is someone at AA will be willing to fly the 190 for those rates, (the same thing will no doubt happen at DAL).

AMR mgt is licking their chops at the very thought of being able to fly coast to coast in a 190 at the Jet Blue rates. Consider this the 190 holds 115 seats. AMR MD80's hold 119 seats. AMR has approx 325 MD80's. Can anyone else think of a better replacement? How many additional aircraft will be needed to fill the void created by the retirement of the 74-F100's? See my point Dave has just invited a whirlwind of competition in the 190 market with those rates. If he had set them at $5-10 dollars below current market 717, DC9, MD80 rates he would have been able to flood the market with the 190's and no one woul have cared. These rates will make the majors stand up and take notice.

Finally someone else listens to Calvin.


G4G5, whether or not you read my rants on this "shot himself in the foot" move by Neeleman, or not. I couldn't agree more. Like I said, I imagine that airline CEO's nationwide are jumping for joy to have this new scale to bargain with. If the competion gets those wages now, they will have effectively negated B6's advantage and gained a twelve month head start.

Again, I say that publishing the scale was a STUPID move. Now their own pilots are pissed, and the competition gets a head start. For that kind of inside information, Martha Stewart is going to jail!!!!!!!!!

But what do I know, I just drive airplanes.

Hobbes

 

[bvt1151]

This 100 seat pay scale just set all of the new pay scales at all of the regional airlines. Leo Mullin must be proud, along with Fred Greed and David Neeleman. They are all eating lunch at the golf club in Westchester County---all laughing with big cigars in their mouths! Think about it---every 70 seat contract will be put up next to this 100 seat one for Jetblue---and the company negotiator will ask, "listen fellas, you are flying a smaller plane and Jetblue is the benchmark. But, I will give you an extra dime an hour on per diem....." Sad but true. The current Jetblue guys shouldn't care--they will be flying A320s for the rest of their careers---and I know they did not decide on those figures. The Midatlantic 70 seater pay scales weren't as applicable because of the shape USAir was in when they created their pay scales--but Jetblue is doing well--and they still lowballed.(jetblue management)


Bye Bye--General Lee

Do you still think Comair and ASA should take concessions, or are you finally realizing that it takes higher RJ rates to prevent lower mainline rates to bridge the gap?

 

[767-300ER]

Chautauqua EMB170/190 Rates

I just put up Chautauqua's new EMB170/190 rates tonight:

www.airlinepilotpay.com

 

[G4G5]

Lowcur
Are you insinuating that UAIR will liquidate by then? I'll take that bet.
G4G5
The long term prospects of USA remaining in anything that resembles it's current size and shape are not good. To quote Larkfield from last week.
"We haven't yet closed the books on the second quarter, but it looks like there may even be a chance that we break even," said Bruce Lakefield.He quickly offered a caveat: "While that's a glimmer of good news, remember that the second quarter is traditionally US Airways' strongest, and we count on it to help carry us through the year."
So, no money made during their strongest quater and SWA smells blood (see recent fare sale), the tough fall and winter yet to go. Are you actually telling me that they will be able to maintain their ATSB required $800 million, when they only have $1.1 billion. That equates to having just $300 mil in cash to get them through another year.
Bet taken, where are you located so I can get my free beer.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
So your point is the 175 would be a totally new a/c from the 170, and subject to a whole new shakeout than the 170. That's funny. You mention the 175 let's look at Airbus. Knock Knock McFly? Now you're talking to yourself.
G4G5
No, I am talking to you and the ironic thing is that you answered. What I am saying is that they are planning on bring 4 totally new, different airframes to the market place at one time, the 170/175/190 &195. Are you telling me that this can be done with out ANY difficulties?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

How popular is the A319? Pretty popular.
G4G5
Really what percentage of 319s do you think are sold Vs the 320? Even better how may A318's are out there? History has taught us that the smallest airframe traditionally sells the worst. Are you saying that this is not the case?
------------------------------------------------------------------------
That for the first time the 175 will out sell the 190? No.
G4G5
Then why are you arguing that LUV will eventually purchase the smaller airframe? If history has taught us one thing more people will be flying in the future. LUV can create demand with their ticket prices if they have the supply. You said "the CASM's on the 190 were on par with those of the 175." If the costs of flying the 195 are even remotely close to the 170/175, why choose the smaller aircraft? Jetblue seems to think along those lines.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, I believe the decision at LGB to reduce B6's slots to 22 had something to do with that deal. But they still run a handful of flights down from OAK that do quite nicely, thankyou. B6 has chosen to use their assets for most of the slots at LGB for transcon. Are they making money? Well most of the flights are full, but yields are small, but I believe yes they are. The key for B6 by 2007 on the West Coast will be attrition of the other majors. Gates will begin to open up an LAX as UAL, UAIR, ATA, DL reduce flights or liquidate. As the infrastructure opens up, you will see B6 take on WN directly......it's inevitable.

G4G5
Again you ignore the question, how did they do in a fare war with LUV? You can talk slots out of LGB, the bottom line is they got their butts kicked because LUV has the assets to sell $39 seats to and from LAS all day long. I'm not bashing B6. In fact it's smart to get out. Why put an aircraft into a money losing fare war when you can get higher yield someplace else? But yet you continue to suggest this, is a good idea. My point is, you can put the 190 or the A320 or AA can put an MD80 up against LUV. Whomever whatever, they will lose. They are then low, cost 800 pound guerilla that drives the domestic fare structure.
As far as gate space, it doesn't come for free. It costs big money. IF UAL ever decides to reduce on the West coast those gates will no doubt be part of an asset sale, not just returned for free so that B6 can have them. The same goes for all the others. I will spell it out for you, its very rudimentary. If people want to go there and it has the possibility of making money, like your example LAX. Then it is worth something of value. Hence it will not be for free and their will be quite a lot of competition. LUV and AA are not just going to say, "we don't need the gates, give them to B6." If B6 or anyone else wants to expand their presence in LAX they will do it by paying big for a single gate or two just to get a foot in the door, subsequently they will face the vex of the others vying to maintain market share. This does not sound like a high yield proposition to me.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 737 is still cheaper the then 190.
Then why don't they publicly refute Embraer on their website? I guess that would cost too much money.
G4G5
No,
How many 190/195's are out on the line flying for air carriers? How do you expect Boeing or Airbus to publicly refute the numbers that another mfr., their is no real data, their are none out on the line, it's still a paper aircraft to Boeing and Airbus. The question becomes, why would you even acknoledge a paper aircraft, that has not effected you? They are not about to spend on cent helping to market the 190. Can you please provide a link to where Embraer compairs the costs of the 737-800 to the 190? I could not find anything on their web site. thanks.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

G4G5
Years. Let's take the G4 that I fly. It has RR Tays on it. Their are over 500 G4's currently flying not to mention all the Foker 100's that are flying with RR Tays. FACT, the cost to overhaul the GE's on the 737 is still cheaper then the cost to overhaul the RR TAY. The same goes for brakes and associated rotable components. Training, what could be cheaper then FREE. All LUV pilots come with their type ratings. Are you actually going to try and tell us that their is an airline out there that has the resources available to get fuel at better hedged prices then LUV? If you are then you creditability is dropping quickly.

Lowcur
Talk about being all over the place, stop rambling. Buying futures is dependent upon the continued up-tick of oil. If it continues, then LUV will do quite nicely. If it flatens out or recedes, then the advantage eventually goes away.
G4G5,
I see that I need to keep it simple for you. The CF34 is an expensive motor to operate! Normal wear and tear items like engine overhauls, brakes, & rotable components are not covered under warranty. They cost money and come directly out of the operators pocket. When I was working as an A&P I had to send out a Challenger with CF34's for an overhaul, 10 years ago my cost for 2 motor's at TBO was $1.2 million. If you compare this to the R/R Tay on the 500+ G4's and the too many to name F100s, it is significantly greater. My cost for two Tays at overhaul 10 years ago was $750 million. The original design application for the CF34 was the A10 warthog. The gov does not care about the cost of engine overhauls. They wanted an extremely high bypass engine. The logic was that ground fire, shrapnel or FOD would be directed through the bypass not effecting the core. Subsequently what you have is an engine that's core is very small and has to work tremendously hard. It next application was the Challenger 601. Corporate flt dept's typically do not care about the cost of the overhaul either (if they can afford to operate one, one assumes they have the money). Typical TBO's for the CF34 are between 6000-7000 hours. It's third application, some 10 years later, was for the airlines, the Bombardier CRJ.

Unlike the CFM56 on the 737, that engine was originally designed for the commerical market. The typical TBO break down on the CFM56 run between 10,000 and 14,000 hours. It can stay on the aircraft 30-50% longer, before needing an overhaul! This is huge.

You can try and spin it anyway you want the CF56 is a cheaper motor to operate. That's just the way it is for motor's they are not all created equal and do not cost the same amounts to repair.

Now what about other components like brakes and pumps? How many rebuilt hyd pumps are available for the Embraer 170 series? What about vendors capable of rebuilding brakes? These are huge advantages that the 737 has and will take years if ever for the 170 series to catch up.

 

[G4G5]

continued
Lowcur
Talk about being all over the place, stop rambling. Buying futures is dependent upon the continued up-tick of oil. If it continues, then LUV will do quite nicely. If it flatens out or recedes, then the advantage eventually goes away.
G4G5
So buying oil futures "depends upon the continued up-tick of oil." Hummmm. If it's that simple then tell me why UAL, USAir and Delta have no oil futures? Could it have something to do with CASH! I again will make it simple. How has a better balance sheet then LUV. Who out there is going to be able to hedge fuel better then LUV? They will always be able to purchase fuel cheaper, hence offsetting any fuel saving that the 190 may have. The eventual fleet size of 700+ aircraft, when combined with LUV's market cap, available cash and cash flow will allow them to pay the fuel hedging market to it's fullest. They will allow LUV to get the best price for fuel, despite the "continued uptick of oil".
----------------------------------------------------------------------

There has just been a major flip on rates. Do you think the pilots at LUV will agree to a 15-20% drop in pay to compete against the 190? The next 5 years for LUV are going to be difficult. If you thought the FA contract hassle was a problem for LUV, wait till you get a load of what happens with the pilots contract. Have you noticed that there has been very little discussion about this contract from WN pilots on this board. I'll bet if you go to the SWAPA board, it's like a Chinese fire drill of activity, as they discus what they can do to protect their pay rates. Again, you will see why male tigers eat their young.

G4G5
You and I will just have to agree to disagree. Do you think that the B6 pilots will be flying the 190 for those rates for an extended period of time. Do you think that, long term they will continue to be the only airline without a union? No, eventually their costs will come up, so it''s not necessarily a fact that LUV pilots will have to take a "15-20%" drop in pay. In fact the reality is if LUV continues to take market share form USAir out of places like PHL, continues to take market share from legacy carriers like AA in places like STL. They will continue to grow. If they eventually wind up doubling their fleet size over the next few years, as planned and continue to make money it will be extremely difficult to do what you suggest.

 

[G4G5]

Finally someone else listens to Calvin.


G4G5, whether or not you read my rants on this "shot himself in the foot" move by Neeleman, or not. I couldn't agree more. Like I said, I imagine that airline CEO's nationwide are jumping for joy to have this new scale to bargain with. If the competion gets those wages now, they will have effectively negated B6's advantage and gained a twelve month head start.

Again, I say that publishing the scale was a STUPID move. Now their own pilots are pissed, and the competition gets a head start. For that kind of inside information, Martha Stewart is going to jail!!!!!!!!!

But what do I know, I just drive airplanes.

Hobbes

Hi Calvin,
Yes, I do read you and thanks.

 

[G4G5]

The deal will be struck to bring back the furloughed guys, at least that is the way they will make it look. A win for Hunter & co in their minds!!!

APA will have no choice in accepting these rates or else a way will be found to farm out the 100 seat flying. I never doubted that APA would have to settle for less than F100 rates on the E Jet if they want to preserve jobs, but I don't think that is their interest anyhow.

I wonder in the case AMR does take on the the E Jets, how junior will Cpt. go. I can't imagine any one on bigger equipment upgrading for a paycut.

Thanks,
My guess is it will go somewhat junior. AMR may try to locate the 190 bases in smaller, lower cost of living cities, like RDU and STL. For some pilots it, the desire for the left seat in their home town may far out weigh sitting on reserve in ORD or LGA on a bigger piece of equipment.