JetBlue defers delivery on 31 A320s

[ArmadilloJackal]

Probably not a good play anymore. The slowdown's starting to hit the rest of the world. I'm anticipating foreign central banks to start cutting rates in order to keep unemployment from falling off a cliff. That'll strengthen the dollar ... the Fed may have a bit of room to cut some more, but it's nearly out of ability to cut rates.

I think (and hope) you're right. I guess I'll hedge against inflation by buying Wii's.

 

[JumpJetter]

Probably not a good play anymore. The slowdown's starting to hit the rest of the world. I'm anticipating foreign central banks to start cutting rates in order to keep unemployment from falling off a cliff. That'll strengthen the dollar ... the Fed may have a bit of room to cut some more, but it's nearly out of ability to cut rates.

Andy

I know it's a complicated answer, but don't you think the low, low, low interest rates are at least GREATLY the cause of the devalued dollar and the housing bubble?

 

[Fubijaakr]

So much for 200 Airbii by 2014. And by asking for another $160m from investors, does that mean B6 has burned through the Lufthansa money already?

Looks like B6 is the next in line for Bankruptcy Court.

 

[Dogwood]

So much for 200 Airbii by 2014. And by asking for another $160m from investors, does that mean B6 has burned through the Lufthansa money already?

Looks like B6 is the next in line for Bankruptcy Court.

I'll agree with the little chance of 200 Airbi by 2014, but as far as the LH cash, I don't think it's been touched. We've got plenty of cash for the moment, so we're not sure why we've chosen to raise more.

Maybe just doing it while we can for future insurance.

Doubt we're next in line for BK, but who knows.

 

[Andy]

Andy

I know it's a complicated answer, but don't you think the low, low, low interest rates are at least GREATLY the cause of the devalued dollar and the housing bubble?

The short answer to both is yes; however, each event was due to different periods of lowering rates.

For the devalued dollar, a lot of that is due to the most recent rate cuts.

For the housing bubble, the housing market started to get inflated post-911. Greenspan's Fed slashed rates aggressively to keep the economy rolling. As a direct result, mortgage rates fell.
Mortgage rates also fell due to a decrease in the risk premium that investors were demanding for their money. I'll try to not sound too geeky, but a good way to think of risk premium on a loan is the difference between what a treasury bill yields (practically guaranteed) and the interest on the loan in question.
Example: 30 year T-bill pays 6% interest. A 30 year fixed mortgage pays 8% interest. That's a 2% risk premium.
The housing bubble got way out of hand due to a narrowed risk premium because investors made a very poor assumption that real estate prices don't fall.
There are a lot of other tangential problems that exacerbated the housing crisis such as exotic loans and stated/no documentation loans.
Exotic loans, such as neg am (negative amortization) loans were necessary in order to qualify many people for their mortgage. The assumption was that they'd be able to refi prior to the mortgage reset and since the house increased in value, the refi costs would simply be rolled into the new mortgage.
Stated/no documentation loans - SISA (stated income, stated asset), NINA (no income, no assets) loans were aggressively sold by mortgage brokers to people who most likely couldn't qualify on full income and asset documentation. These loans paid the broker a higher commission, so there was a LOT of incentive to push buyers toward these loans.

When you see an 'expert' on the tube tell the public that the housing crisis is nearly over, I would suggest that you never rely on that person for unbiased information ever again. The housing crisis is far from over; it's more in the bottom of the third inning.
A lot of neg am loans are going to reset over the next 36 months. Most of those houses will end up in foreclosure because the market is nowhere near the bottom. I don't expect to see a bottom in the housing market until 2012. And as this drags on, it will have an increasing drag on the economy - it's going to get ugly out there. Prepare for several years of very lean times.
I'm not one to make these statements without putting my money on the line - to date, I've made a lot of coin shorting homebuilders (BZH, SPF, MTH, LEN back in 07; rotated out of them at the end of 07), Countrywide (shorted in the high 30s, covered in the low teens), Downey Savings and Loan (70s down to 20s); currently short FED, C, LEH, MER, COF, WFC. The financials have major issues due to the housing crisis and could implode any time now.

Long winded answer; hope that helps.

 

[Andy]

So much for 200 Airbii by 2014. And by asking for another $160m from investors, does that mean B6 has burned through the Lufthansa money already?

Looks like B6 is the next in line for Bankruptcy Court.

I don't think that they've burned through all of the LH money yet.

Over the last few years, most of JBLU's was short term; they'd roll most of it over as it was due. The reason why they went short term on the debt is that it was at lower interest rates than long term debt.
I haven't looked at JBLU's 10K/Q for a while (I've got more than a few of other companies practically memorized), but I think that they were trying to roll some of that into longer term debt. However, it's very possible that they could have $500M+ in debt due this year. For that reason, it was smart for them to raise additional capital.

I don't think that they're the next to go chap 11; I can think of a couple of others that I'd place higher on the list. Of course, I'd have to check to see JBLU's hedging strategy. With the meteoric rise in oil prices, the airlines that were aggressively hedged in this quarter will be in the best shape.
One airline that I'd be concerned about is CAL; they were very lightly hedged going into Q2 and they used three way collars with a ceiling price that they'd be hedged. It would have been a great strategy had oil prices remained flat/decreased.

 

[waveflyer]

This slowdown is why the FO position shouldn't be sold out for a quick upgrade. Not everyone can be a captain real quick- but now you're stuck trying to figure out how to negotiate higher FO wages when you're in a downturn....

Waiting patiently for the day when anyone in the airlines thinks long term. . .

(But if it's too much for mgmt, maybe i could expect pilots to...??) (That's a hint for VA and LCC, btw)

 

[B6Busdriver]

So much for 200 Airbii by 2014. And by asking for another $160m from investors, does that mean B6 has burned through the Lufthansa money already?

Looks like B6 is the next in line for Bankruptcy Court.

Looks like Fubi needs to go back to rehab. Live and let live Fubi.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Is that all you got? A personal attack?

Better:

1. Get your facts straight.
2. Dust off your resume.

I guess you could go over to another non-Union wage cutter...VA's hiring.

 

[tzskipper]

I guess you could go over to another non-Union wage cutter...VA's hiring.

Why the cheap-shot at another pilot group? Because they are hiring?

VA has only been flying since August. It would seem a little premature to expect a successful organizing drive to have occured.

 

[Jonny Sacko]

Fellas

It took over 17 posts to get to the bashing. I believe you've made it. Nice. Good luck with all that other stuff.

I do have one question though, how do they furlough? Does anybody know the facts? Is it the guy who's contract is due, or the most junior guy, or the loudest troublemaker, or that ugly chick that wears the "Women Fly" hat that used to be in the safety department and got booted to go on line or what? Hypothetical of course. I hope it's not "understood" it will be in seniority. That won't fly if times get bad enough and a senior guy comes up for renewal. Did all of the contracts just get renewed?

Either way, I wish the best for all.

 

[Joblu]

Is that all you got? A personal attack?

Better:

1. Get your facts straight.
2. Dust off your resume.

I guess you could go over to another non-Union wage cutter...VA's hiring.

Well at least I don't pay dues to get my wages cut. Given the impressive track record of unions it is certainly the way to go..

Dogwood that avatar is all too familiar. hehe.

 

[clickclickboom]

Fellas

It took over 17 posts to get to the bashing. I believe you've made it. Nice. Good luck with all that other stuff.

I do have one question though, how do they furlough? Does anybody know the facts? Is it the guy who's contract is due, or the most junior guy, or the loudest troublemaker, or that ugly chick that wears the "Women Fly" hat that used to be in the safety department and got booted to go on line or what? Hypothetical of course. I hope it's not "understood" it will be in seniority. That won't fly if times get bad enough and a senior guy comes up for renewal. Did all of the contracts just get renewed?

Either way, I wish the best for all.

There is a no furlough clause in the contract.. With less flying the monthly bid divisior gets lowered for example 2015 or so pilots y number of hours equals 80 hr bid divisior..

For June I got 78 hours and 19 days off with all trip commutable.. Last june I bid max sked got 92 hours and 15 days off

 

[737 Pylt]

Well at least I don't pay dues to get my wages cut.

No you just get whatever management throws down your throat, like those impressive 190 payrates!

Given the impressive track record of unions it is certainly the way to go..

While I'm no alpa fan, it certainly is better than taking my chances without some kind of protection on the property!
And if that's so, then why are you guys talking JBPA?

737

 

[Fubijaakr]

Why the cheap-shot at another pilot group? Because they are hiring?.

No, its because of the fact that the pilots are willing to work at a non-Union shop that is undercutting the rest of us.

Need some examples?

Airbus Capts. getting $95 an hour. And when they all go to year 2 in October they'll be getting $100 an hour. 5 years from NOW they'll be making an impressive $120 an hour.

In the meantime all our airlines will be attempting to drive our wages down to their level, just like they used the bankruptcy court to drive wages down to jetBlue levels.

Need another one? When F/Os at VA upgrade, they go to first year Captain pay...$95 an hour. Wanna bet our airlines will try to get that language in our contracts? It gives them an additional six years of Captain flying for substandard wages for every one of these guys who upgrades.

How about this gem...merit promotion. That's what ALPA was founded on back in the '20s to fight...preferential treatment. So, what's the metric that gets you promoted at VA? Fewest maintenance writeups? On time arrivals? Or simply ass-kissing the Chief Pilot.

Is this the way you really want the piloting profession to go?

You tell me.