Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[JoeMerchant]

The top 5 oil companies are not US corporations, and most oil comes from other countries....In fact only 2 of the top 12 oil companies are US corporations....

How does the US control an industry that is largely based in other countries....How is Obama going to control something that is largely outside of the US?

 

[JoeMerchant]

Yes, seriously. I don't believe that middle class Americans will allow themselves to be thrust into poverty en masse, and that's exactly what would happen with $250/bbl oil. Whether they actually burn Exxon to the ground is a matter of how government reacts to their plight. If government doesn't solve their problems for them, then the people will resort to drastic measures.

OK....let's go with your little vision of things....We shut down Exxon/Mobile and Texaco....They are only a small part of the oil picture.....Your socialist friend Chavez supplies more oil......

The largest 5 oil companies aren't US Companies and only 2 of the largest 12 oil companies are US companies.....

So most oil comes from other countries and most oil companies are foreign based....You going to burn them down too?

Shall we talk about this from a pragmatic position or should we continue to allow emotion to run the debate?

 

[PCL_128]

OK....let's go with your little vision of things....We shut down Exxon/Mobile and Texaco....They are only a small part of the oil picture.....Your socialist friend Chavez supplies more oil......

The largest 5 oil companies aren't US Companies and only 2 of the largest 12 oil companies are US companies.....

So most oil comes from other countries and most oil companies are foreign based....You going to burn them down too?

Shall we talk about this from a pragmatic position or should we continue to allow emotion to run the debate?

Joe, you misunderstand. I'm not advocating such a course of action or even saying that it remotely makes sense. I'm simply telling you that Americans will behave irrationally and violently if they are forced into poverty because of a complete economic collapse. America is not Haiti. Our citizens will not put up with a couple hundred million people living in poverty conditions. Riots, attacks on companies like Exxon-Mobile, etc... won't make any sense, but people don't behave rationally when they are placed in such circumstances.

Don't get me wrong, though. I'm not actually predicting any such unrest, because I don't believe that oil will go any higher than $150/bbl before the bubble pops. I'm simply entertaining jetflyer's wild oil predictions.

 

[crxpilot]

Keep beating those doomsday drums little boy. Maybe if you beat loud enough someone will hear you. Not me.

 

[Soverytired]

W
I think that's incredibly naive. If your vision of oil prices becomes reality, then America's version of the Bastille will be Exxon-Mobile corporate headquarters. Ready for some heads to roll (literally)?

Exxon-Mobile currently currently competes to pump oil from something like 7% of the world's proven reserves. Everything else is either nationalized or off limits due to short-sighted US denial policies.

Exxon-Mobile only produces something like 3% of total world gasoline output. Yet THEY'RE the bad guys? Puh-lease. They're easy scapegoats, and congressmen who are utterly ignorant love to drag them up and accuse them of gouging on TV. . . not the producers of the other 97% of gasoline.

Unless you'd care to suggest that their minute 3% is so critical that it can impact price greatly? Well, here's a thought . . . let them explore for oil all over the US and the US continental shelf! Wait! You say that would only be a drop in the bucket! But wait, small amounts don't make a difference. Except when it's Exxon.

Error. ...error ....does not compute!

(Relax. Americans are sheep, and will do what they're told. But man, will they whine like crazy. For those of you who've read "The Long Emergency", remember the author is a survivalist and never bothered to cite a single footnote in suport of his doom-and-gloom end of the world nonsense)

 

[Lear70]

(Relax. Americans are sheep, and will do what they're told. But man, will they whine like crazy. For those of you who've read "The Long Emergency", remember the author is a survivalist and never bothered to cite a single footnote in suport of his doom-and-gloom end of the world nonsense)

I think many of you underestimate the power of desperation.

Yes, most Americans will simply whine and picket and protest but, in larger cities, crime will SKYROCKET...

When you have a large population that already lives in near-poverty levels and you increase their cost for basic food items above their ability to feed their family, even if it's just rice and beans or Milk and cheese because prices go up but food stamps amounts don't, those people (who account for at least half of the crime rate in major cities) WILL retaliate.

They know perfectly well that, if crime double or triples overnight, law enforcement doesn't have the resources to combat it.

The average suburbinite isn't going to get armed and go on a Kroger's raid over $5.00 a gallon gas (although you can kiss the mega-shopping malls goodbye), but the only thing that will keep major cities from meltdown with the increased cost of food items is the availability of mass transit at the same price they pay now (which is already reaching record levels of capacity according to the WSJ), and a rollout of the National Guard to keep order and supplement local Law Enforcement when the cost of BASIC living exceeds what they are able to buy.

p.s. I agree with PCL that it's a Bubble, but I've said it before and I'll say it again, oil WILL be above $150 by the 4th of July and will go much higher than that before summer is over, with the bubble popping right after election time and receding, but likely nowhere under $100 a brl.

 

[cjdriver]

Disregardhttps://freeinternetpress.com/story.php?sid=17112

 

[ParrotheadPilot]

When you have a large population that already lives in near-poverty levels and you increase their cost for basic food items above their ability to feed their family, even if it's just rice and beans or Milk and cheese because prices go up but food stamps amounts don't, those people (who account for at least half of the crime rate in major cities) WILL retaliate.

Near poverty is the key here. The folks in poverty already get food stamps from the government, Medicaid for healthcare, and welfare/unemployment since they don't have jobs.

It's the people just above the poverty line who are in the biggest trouble. They're the ones that get no government assistance.

For the record I think that food stamps, medicaid, welfare, etc should all be time limited (1 year, 2 years, whatever) and then the person(s) should be cut off. A couple of years is plenty of time to get back on your feet if you've fallen. YOU all (as well as me) should be upset because there are numerous individuals who abuse the programs for extended periods of time. Thus your tax dollars hard at work, for those who are too lazy to get jobs.

 

[jetflyer]

This is a must see CNBC interview from this morning.

The interview is with the Department of Energy Peak Oil study writer Robert Hirsch. His study was amazing about how hard and long (decade at best) peak oil will be to overcome because of the sheer volumes of oil that have to be replaced from the depleting fields.

He now says we're right at peak oil and could see $500 OIL within 3-5 years with $12/gallon gasoline!!!

CNBC VIDEO(5 mins):
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=774744570&play=1

 

[jetflyer]

30 second comedy Youtube clip about high oil prices:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZlT4w2tZmg

"It's F'ing Expensive!!"

 

[Lear70]

30 second comedy Youtube clip about high oil prices:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZlT4w2tZmg

"It's F'ing Expensive!!"

LOL

"Make our future f*ing renewable!"

Classic.

 

[jetflyer]

LOL

"Make our future f*ing renewable!"

Classic.

Yea, it is classic.

I hope they f'ing hurry with the f'ing renewables!

 

[jetflyer]

I think JP Morgan's call of $150/barrel by July 4th because of serious inventory draw downs won't happen unless a more serious supply scare occurs soon but I think $150 in 6 weeks is possible.

Here is my analysis. Please look at the chart I created!

CLICK ME FOR THE CHART
I've found a strange coincidence (or not a coincidence) in the last two run ups......

When oil hit $135.09 the 200 dma was 95.06
135.09/95.06= 1.421 x the 200 day moving average

When oil hit $139.12 the 200 dma was 97.88
139.12/97.88= 1.421 x the 200 dma again!!

1.421 x the 200 dma is recurring... I think 1.421 x the 200dma will be a rising ceiling until there is widespread panic over something... hurricane, war with Iran, Saudi past peak admission, or widespread undeniable shortages...

In my new opinion we'll go down to just below $130 then run up to about $145, then run down to about $134 and run up to break $150 in about 6 weeks.

If my theory holds the 200 dma will have to be $105.55 to allow oil at $150 (105.55x 1.421= 150) At the rate it's rising that will be about 6 weeks........

Let's see if I finally get something right.........

Oh and I made the blue line the 40 day moving average in the chart below. Look how it appears to be the floor!! The red line is the 200 dma.

Looking at the chart below with the 40dma as the floor and 1.421 percentage as the ceiling, you have to admit technical analysis can be pretty amazing and make things look orderly atleast after the fact

CLICK ME FOR THE CHART

I still hold to my opinion that oil will eventually crash back to the 200 dma which is currently about to cross $100 and rising quickly, but it may not occur until after $150 when the summer is close to over......

Thanks for listening and the charts are neat huh?,
Jet

I quoted my previous post because I think I was pretty much dead on with my technical analysis prediction 5 weeks ago.

We're going to have a 200 day moving average higher than $105.5 next Monday. This will allow for the price of oil to go above $150.

So far 1.421 X the 200 dma hasn't been exceeded. I still think this is the ceiling. When this is broke I think it will be a temporary blow off top that will precede the next big correction to $100-$115.

So bottom line, I think we'll hit $150 next week...

CLICK ME FOR THE $WTIC CHART I made showing the 40 day moving average is the floor and 1.421 x the 200 dma as the ceiling since February. Quite orderly looking isn't it!!?

U.S. crude inventories fell a lot more than expected Wednesday and are the lowest they've been in years. If they go down a lot next Wednesday that could be the catalyst.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

I've been telling you that NOW is the time to buy preciois metals AND precious metal stocks or stock mutual funds like the Fidelity Gold Fund.

NOW has just also become the time to invest in ENERGY STOCK MUTUAL FUNDS and ENERGY STOCKS.

Yesterday the ENERGY STOCK INDEX which yesterday hit a 3 MONTH LOW showed bottoming action bouncing off its 200 Day Moving average. Today we're showing a higher high and higher low from yesterday.

The oil price is about to top for a while but the stocks will keep going up.

This is the best time to invest in energy and precious metals.

DO NOT MISS OUT ON THIS ONCE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A LOT OF MONEY. Stocks in the US have a lot further down to go. They'll bounce off about 10,720 go up for a while and then come back down to lower lows.

Atleast do this to DIVERSIFY.

DIVERSIFYING IS SMART.

BE SMART.

 

[Dizel8]

$147/bbl and a $30+ crack spread.

Except for a very few, unless we see a dramatic decrease in oil prices, and very soon, whether it be a rising dollar or less demand, the airlines bussiness is done.

Considering the current state of the US economy, the instability in the financial sector and the continual threat of unrest, read suppy problems, in oil producing countries, seeing an economic rebound anytime soon is unlikely.

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted!