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Jet Blue debt downgraded

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radarlove

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Posts
677
For those investors that have not been around the block, debt ratings are a lot more predictive of the health of a company than stock ratings by analysts. Debt ratings focus on the ability of a company to repay debt and don't need to be taken with the same grain of salt that you have to give stock ratings. It's not a great picture.


Moody's downgrades JetBlue


By Jim Jelter, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:29 PM ET Apr 13, 2006





SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investor Services pushed low-cost carrier JetBlue Airways Corp's debt deeper into speculation grade Thursday, citing the airline's unexpectedly poor operating results and persistent long-term challenges to its profitability.
Moody's, in a note issued after Thursday's closing bell, said it was lowering its credit rating on $2.3 billion of JetBlue corporate debt to B2 from Ba3. Moody's also withdrew prospective ratings on a multiple seniority shelf registration, stating "the outlook remains negative."
The move follows a net loss for JetBlue in 2005, a year in which the carrier saw its aggressive growth strategy clipped by higher fuel costs and the burden of adding a new type of jet to its fleet.
"The rating also considers the difficult operating environment in the U.S. passenger airline industry due to fierce competition, particularly in JetBlue's core East Coast markets. High fuel costs are likely to continue to negatively affect JetBlue's operating margin, although the company does have a fuel hedging program that provides some protection against higher oil prices," Moody's wrote in a note.

Moody's said JetBlue's decision to expand its operations using the Brazilian-built Embraer 190 is likely to drive up operating costs over the next few years since the plane costs more to fly on an available per-mile basis than the bigger Airbus A320 that until now has been the backbone of its fleet.
"As these aircraft are deployed in new markets, JetBlue's traditional model is to stimulate traffic with lower fares to the traveling public, which could pressure the margins even further," Moody's warned.
JetBlue ended 2005 with a $20.3 million loss -- its first loss ever -- after an especially tough fourth quarter. The New York-based airline said in February it expects to report a net loss for the first quarter and full year. It is schedule to release its first-quarter report on April 25.
JetBlue stock closed Thursday with a 22-cent gain at $10.40 a share. After hitting a 52-week high of $16.85 in December, JetBlue stock dropped sharply to a low of $9.95 on March 13.
 
Seems to me that Ford Motor Company debt has been downgraded to junk bond status. I seriously doubt they (Ford or JBLU) will be going out of business anytime soon.
 
TheBaron said:
Seems to me that Ford Motor Company debt has been downgraded to junk bond status. I seriously doubt they (Ford or JBLU) will be going out of business anytime soon.
"Speculative" means there is a chance of bankruptcy, but it is not predicted, or the debt would move even lower.

The important part of this downgrade is that Jet Blue has a "shelf" offering of debt (debt that has the paperwork finished but has not been sold yet) and with this downgrade, this debt will carry a higher interest rate, putting even more of a cash-flow hurt on JBLU if they decide to issue it.

Also, with this downgrade, those that currently hold JBLU debt just lost a lot of value (we'll find out how much tomorrow).

It was interesting with United, Moody's always seemed to be a month or so ahead of the stock folks.
 
TheBaron said:
Seems to me that Ford Motor Company debt has been downgraded to junk bond status. I seriously doubt they (Ford or JBLU) will be going out of business anytime soon.

Ford
Market Cap $13.8 Billion
Earnings per share +.61 cents
PE Ratio 11.9

Jetblue
Market cap $1.8 billlion
Earnings per share -.18 cents
PE Ratio -56.2

Who do you think has more equity and cash?
 
Good thing we have good credit. We were one of only eight companies with a AAA credit rating from both Standard & Poor's and Moody's.
 
Absolutely not. JB will be around for a long time. But, it was a bit of a house of cards to start, quite creative financing, etc. Just reality is about to rear it's ugly head.

Hung
 
FedEx Corp[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
An obligation rated 'BBB' exhibits adequate protection parameters. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
[/FONT]
spacer.gif
BBB


United Parcel Service Inc.
spacer.gif
AAA [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
An obligation rated 'AAA' has the highest rating assigned by Standard & Poor's. The obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is extremely strong.
[/FONT]
 
UPSer said:
FedEx Corp[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
An obligation rated 'BBB' exhibits adequate protection parameters. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the obligor to meet its financial commitment on the obligation.
[/FONT]http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/images/spacer.gifBBB


United Parcel Service Inc.http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/images/spacer.gifAAA[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
An obligation rated 'AAA' has the highest rating assigned by Standard & Poor's. The obligor's capacity to meet its financial commitment on the obligation is extremely strong.
[/FONT]

And your point?:confused:
 
UPSer said:
For informational purposes only.

Thanks, I guess a lot of dudes on here can rest easier tonight now that you got that info to them. Really, it just sounds like you're trying to say UPS is better than FedEx. I say, who cares?! (besides you).;) Thought this was a jetblue post anyway.
 
Jetblue is now seeing the effects of their own work. More bad news to follow. Not sure this is another flyi but it is starting to look like something will have to happen during the next year to keep the dream aloft.
 
Me thinks both AMR(B3) and CAL(?) are rated below Jetblue, and their market caps are significantly higher than B6.

It is next to impossible to hatch a crystal ball on Jetblue for the next 18 months at this time, and Moody's is just doing their job on data that is available. The 1st Q numbers will offer little information on the changes in yield mgt or the 190 deployment and limited 320 redeployment. 2nd Q numbers will give a limited picture about any failure or success, but it won't be until the 4th Q this year that you should be able to compare reasonably(providing oil stays below $70) whether mgt has a handle on what they are doing.

I still believe Jetblue will defer deliveries on the 320 in the next few months, once DL's future is certain. I believe they are holding off this announcement just in case DL falls apart. They will then let the 190 numbers catch up to the 320 before restarting deliveries.

:pimp:
 
really....

yea, they can go hide in Bankruptcy like the rest of you saps. If Jetblue doesn't make money, none of the legacy can.
 
lowecur said:
I still believe Jetblue will defer deliveries on the 320 in the next few months, once DL's future is certain. I believe they are holding off this announcement just in case DL falls apart. They will then let the 190 numbers catch up to the 320 before restarting deliveries.

:pimp:

I think this is definitely in the works with one exception. I don't think the 320 deliveries will be stopped entirely but they will at least be cut in half. I expect an announcement shortly after the 1st quarter numbers come in.
 
fifty30retard said:
I think this is definitely in the works with one exception. I don't think the 320 deliveries will be stopped entirely but they will at least be cut in half. I expect an announcement shortly after the 1st quarter numbers come in.

So if they cut the 320 deliveries in half what are they going to do with all those planned new hires? If for some reason they take more drastic actions do the contractors at JBLU have a furlough clause in the agreement? Can they just eliminate those that they don't wish to keep employed or do they have to do it in seniority order?
 
32LT10 said:
So if they cut the 320 deliveries in half what are they going to do with all those planned new hires? If for some reason they take more drastic actions do the contractors at JBLU have a furlough clause in the agreement? Can they just eliminate those that they don't wish to keep employed or do they have to do it in seniority order?

Two responses (pick one):

You are a jagnut -- your attacks are so thinly veiled. I should start a BASH UNITED thread toot sweet. Or maybe I will just wait until Senor Boeingman checks on in. I mean, why come down to your level?

OR

Why do you think jb is hq'd in new york, slappy? Much easier to ELIMINATE employees, if you know what I mean... I guess I should have paid attention to that email entitled: "JetBlue announces that Vinny 'Boombats' Soprano is appointed VP of Crewmember Assassinations." I guess I was too wrapped up in a few articles I was reading: "United Airlines - Raising Mediocrity to a Whole New Level" and "Economy Plus - Hey, the Tray Table Comes With a Sticker, What's Not to Like?" They had to be true, I read them on Queen of Sky.

Alright, I came down. Couldn't resist. But I don't have a beef against United. Just you.

(no Italians or new yorkers were harmed in the making of this post)
 
Last edited:
32LT10 said:
So if they cut the 320 deliveries in half what are they going to do with all those planned new hires? If for some reason they take more drastic actions do the contractors at JBLU have a furlough clause in the agreement? Can they just eliminate those that they don't wish to keep employed or do they have to do it in seniority order?


I would have thought at this time of day you would be wearing your disguise and cruising the middle schools you sick fxxx.
 
I guess you hit a nerve, but really, what happens,. Anyone with training issues, or a captains report with any derogatory comments, is in trouble. I guess that will have to be worked out. Hmm
 
fifty30retard said:
I think this is definitely in the works with one exception. I don't think the 320 deliveries will be stopped entirely but they will at least be cut in half. I expect an announcement shortly after the 1st quarter numbers come in.
That will probably be the initial response, but the fact that Chicago and LA have no gate space makes it impossible to accept even half the remaining 320 order. DL/NWA, CAL/UAL will probably merge at some pt in the next few years. This will consolidate capacity to some extent, but I don't look for them to cut back gates at Chicago or LA. Jetblue will need to focus on the small markets in the NE to their focus cities until gates open at these facilities.

:pimp:
 
32LT10 said:
So if they cut the 320 deliveries in half what are they going to do with all those planned new hires? If for some reason they take more drastic actions do the contractors at JBLU have a furlough clause in the agreement? Can they just eliminate those that they don't wish to keep employed or do they have to do it in seniority order?

Alright there LT...take it easy on the contractor stuff...I seem to remember when I was at UAL I was also a "contractor" who was furloughed so that the top end of the seniority list can save the "A" Plan...Your ALPA contract is no different than JB's...You had someone signing it on your behalf...No different than each individual signing it....

Now if you want to have some intelligent conversation about the future of JB and the rest of the industry....Lets have at it......A bashfest everytime JB sneezes is just the sound of someone looking to blame there company's problems on someone else......

I have no problem with an intelligent opinion good or bad..I will respect that....but I will not respect someone who turns everything into a bashfest....
 
really...

Its funny how you make fun of JB's lack of a union while yours sold out and hoes itself out with hundreds of 50 seat aircraft. Some Union.
 
lowecur said:
That will probably be the initial response, but the fact that Chicago and LA have no gate space makes it impossible to accept even half the remaining 320 order. DL/NWA, CAL/UAL will probably merge at some pt in the next few years. This will consolidate capacity to some extent, but I don't look for them to cut back gates at Chicago or LA. Jetblue will need to focus on the small markets in the NE to their focus cities until gates open at these facilities.

:pimp:

I agree with that assertation. My feeling is that there will be some consolidation in the airline industry. The DL/NWA makes the most sense as their(NWA) strong hold in the Asian market, and DL always wanted in on that market, ever since Gulf war I and their almost opeining up an asian hub in Tiawan! There is very little overlap in the 2 carriers' route structure. However, I don't feel that it will happen any time soon.
Also, I feel that a post BK DL will be a very strong carrier with lower costs and a solid route structure.
Of course this is all JMHO!
737
 
I know everyone loves 32 and all, but he's got a valid question on this one and it's not even flame bait. What happens if the 320 is fat on pilots to the point they need to furlough? Do they furlough in seniority order or do they furlough just 320 pilots? I read that even if furloughed, you will get min guaruntee for the life of the 5yr contract. Will they pay that to a bunch of guys to stay home, or would they thin the flying out where they can keep everyone working and fly 70-ish hours?

What about 320 captains? Do they go to the right seat of the airbus or do they go to the 190 where they'd make more money, in theory...

Hypothetically, how would that pan out?
 
737 Pylt said:
Also, I feel that a post BK DL will be a very strong carrier with lower costs and a solid route structure. Of course this is all JMHO!
737
I'm assuming this TA has a major scope concession in exchange for giving up less money. The real loser for DL is Comair and the Skywest regional deal. If they could jettison Comair and cutback Skywest considerably, then give all the E-jet flying(70-118 seats at the going rates) to mainline..........DL will have a strong beginning out of BK. Anything else will require a quick merger.

:pimp:
 
9rj9 said:
yea, they can go hide in Bankruptcy like the rest of you saps. If Jetblue doesn't make money, none of the legacy can.

Not too sure I agree with ya 9R.....

Legacys have a higher revenue potential than the LCC's. Lets take UAL for example. They have an outstanding service called p.s. It is like a better first class service on their 757's from NY to the west coast. they are full all the time. Why? Because there is a level of pax willing to pay 1000 dollars or more for it. So they have the low fare pax in the back and they have about 30 seats in the front at a much higher fare, hence more revenue potential. The legacys also have a strong profit center in their Atlantic and Pacific flying. Now the cost of doing business all around the world is more for a legacy carrier. For example, for an 747 to land in NRT...I think the fee is about 10,000 dollars....The legacys also have to pay nav charges to fly in another countrys airspace....So legacys do have a higher cost of doing business overseas, but I think the fares for those flights cover it quite well.

The LCC's have an advantage whereas they do not have any of the above charges other than whatever the cost of doing business is here in the USA, which is less than overseas so they can charge less of a fare to cover their costs......but they do have a lowere revenue potential....

Higher oil prices do not help the LCC's or anyone for that matter.

The trick is to stay competitive and still be able to make money...
 
Patriot328 said:
I know everyone loves 32 and all, but he's got a valid question on this one and it's not even flame bait. What happens if the 320 is fat on pilots to the point they need to furlough? Do they furlough in seniority order or do they furlough just 320 pilots? I read that even if furloughed, you will get min guaruntee for the life of the 5yr contract. Will they pay that to a bunch of guys to stay home, or would they thin the flying out where they can keep everyone working and fly 70-ish hours?

What about 320 captains? Do they go to the right seat of the airbus or do they go to the 190 where they'd make more money, in theory...

Hypothetically, how would that pan out?
Recently hired trainees would probably fill out a reduced order of 8 or 9 320s per year. Others would be offered the 190. I can't see furloughs in the cards unless the combination of 190s, adjusted yield mgt, redeployment of 320s to shorter routes, and deferred deliveries is not working.

:pimp:
 
I agree. While 32 apparently relishes in the problems of JB, at least he's asking in a more reasonable, grown-up tone. And they are valid questions.

I don't have the answers. While I'm not a doom and gloom guy, I do plan to go back and re-read my 'contract'.

Since we don't have much attrition (except new folks going to the likes of FEX/SWA/CAL), I can see the CA upgrades slowing way down or coming to a halt if we defer Bus deliveries. It might not be a good time to defer upgrade if you're on the fence becuase of our POS reserve system.
 
lowecur said:
I'm assuming this TA has a major scope concession in exchange for giving up less money.


Don't count on that! I'm a "glass half full" person, but I just don't see us giving up even MORE on scope, I know it will be a no vote! You may see more 70 seaters as that is where the money is, the 50 seater is a loser, but anything over 70 seats will most likely come to mainline.

The real loser for DL is Comair and the Skywest regional deal. If they could jettison Comair and cutback Skywest considerably, then give all the E-jet flying(70-118 seats at the going rates) to mainline..........DL will have a strong beginning out of BK. Anything else will require a quick merger.
CMR will be sold, no doubt, hopefully not to MESA. I'd rather see something along the lines of what CAL did with XJ. But the real loser is that we paid nearly $2 Bil for it and it will probably be sold for pennies on the dollar. Don't look for a quick merger, most likely 5 years down the road. I think DL needs to survive as a stand alone carrier first for a while! Of course I could be wrong on all counts
737
 

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