JB to retire aircraft?

[bluejuice787]

It looks like a storm is on the horizon for jb. Any other airline with just an average fleet age of 7 years would probably be considered as having the youngest fleet in the industry. So I had to laugh as well when hearing of jb's plans to "sell" some "older" 320's....yeah whatever! And funny out of the 2 responses thus far from the men in blue, one was quite defensive, actually resorting to criticizing Delta. The blue boys have had 6 good years while the majors have been decimated with bankruptcies, job losses and the all but criminal decimation of pilot contracts. The worm is about to turn. Look at SWA pushing for price increases, thats gotta tell you something.

The legacies and the LCC's have a different business model. When one does well the other struggles it seems. maybe we will now see the rise of the legacy once again. Peoples Express was once the darling of the industry as I remember, but I was just a kid with stars in my eyes.

I'll try not to sound defensive as many of you have made some astute observations:

Can anyone give me the name of an airline that has never made a poor decision? Or perhaps any sizeable business for that matter? The truth is business models life sometimes and as such is much like a sine wave. Sometimes the amplitude is so high that most expect the valley to be equally low.

Many people that compete with JB hate us and I can understand why. It is human to want to place blame far away from ones self. JB kicks a$$ by doing what many of the others fail to do, take care of the customer and take chances. Have we made some regrettable decisions taking chances...absolutly. Will we make more...yes.

I would probably start worring about what many of you say if we had different leadership. The truth is that we have leadership that is innovative as well as pragmatic and also human and honest. Most of us know that it is not how you handle your business when things are great but rather how you handle the tight times.

Unfortunately for those of you that wish for a train wreck, it simply is not going to happen. You will see a modest slowdown, retool, rethink and continuation of what we do best...win over your customers.

Juice

 

[FlyBoeingJets]

Lot of assumptions being thrown around here.

Who ever said JetBlue needed a major liquidation to prosper? Delta and NWA will shrink to a smaller size than they are now. Delta went from almost 10,000 pilots to under 6,000 now. On the flip side I couldn't figure out where 100 more A-320s were going to either. IMHO, its very smart to defer some of those.


Will the EMB's make more money than the 320's? I think so. At least for a year or so. And the regionals challenged will be in retrench mode. Big battle coming there. Bad news is upgrades to the 320 will slow down in a year or so. The thread Frontier vs. JetBlue is a sign of that. Who would have thought some would pass on JetBlue for Frontier?

JetBlue's oldest in the fleet too old?? That is funny. Replace a few T.V. screens and now everyone thinks they are on the way out. That would be more expensive than deferring deliveries, I think. The TV is a good thing and the passenger will seek it on the transcons. Trouble is transcons don't make money right now. But they will in time. That's my theory even though I prefer to read and sleep.

"When the fuel hedges (partially) run out" in 2008 look for the landscape to change once again. The JFK terminal is complete in, what, '08-'09? Trouble is that is too far away as JetBlue needs to keep their cash flow up for 2006 and 2007.

Debt at the Blue is $2.3 Billion. I look for that to go somewhat higher in 2006.

Not busting on you guys, really. Starting sometime in 2007, and definitely in 2008, you guys will be tough to beat once again.

 

[theo]

So didnt JB just at some new EMB 190 service to RIC from BOS and JFK? How is it going? Are you carrying any people? HOw about US Airways? Have you seen your loads drop off, or the fares take a dive?

 

[bluejuice787]

Lot of assumptions being thrown around here.

Who ever said JetBlue needed a major liquidation to prosper? Delta and NWA will shrink to a smaller size than they are now. Delta went from almost 10,000 pilots to under 6,000 now. On the flip side I couldn't figure out where 100 more A-320s were going to either. IMHO, its very smart to defer some of those.


Will the EMB's make more money than the 320's? I think so. At least for a year or so. And the regionals challenged will be in retrench mode. Big battle coming there. Bad news is upgrades to the 320 will slow down in a year or so. The thread Frontier vs. JetBlue is a sign of that. Who would have thought some would pass on JetBlue for Frontier?

JetBlue's oldest in the fleet too old?? That is funny. Replace a few T.V. screens and now everyone thinks they are on the way out. That would be more expensive than deferring deliveries, I think. The TV is a good thing and the passenger will seek it on the transcons. Trouble is transcons don't make money right now. But they will in time. That's my theory even though I prefer to read and sleep.

"When the fuel hedges (partially) run out" in 2008 look for the landscape to change once again. The JFK terminal is complete in, what, '08-'09? Trouble is that is too far away as JetBlue needs to keep their cash flow up for 2006 and 2007.

Debt at the Blue is $2.3 Billion. I look for that to go somewhat higher in 2006.

Not busting on you guys, really. Starting sometime in 2007, and definitely in 2008, you guys will be tough to beat once again.

I am a bit confused by your post. What are you trying to say in the first paragraph? Re-read it as if you are just an observer with no assumptions...it makes no sense.

Also, with regard to assumptions, JB has made no mention of deferring any a/c orders. JB will sell perhaps 2 to 4 of the oldest (relative) a/c to a foreign carrier for profit. JB will continue assumption of all a320s at this time. Getting rid of the earlier a/c is a smart decision because the MX warranties are expiring.

 

[elag777]

Would it not be a smart move to sell two or three of the earlier aircraft in the fleet that are approaching the seven year mark? With demand for the 320 pushing the 200 mark in the world market it may be prudent to sell or lease these a/c. These a/c are owned by B6 and command ticket prices upward of $45m. Slowing down may mean replacement of older a/c with new options and keeping the growth neutral for a while. A smart move as the heavy checks are on the horizon and mx costs are being controlled while increasing cash flow. Sounds like a wise adjustment in MOI.

 

[lowecur]

I am a bit confused by your post. What are you trying to say in the first paragraph? Re-read it as if you are just an observer with no assumptions...it makes no sense. I think he's saying the cut back in capacity by the legacys was just as bad as one going 7, so Jetblue can't use that as an excuse. I disagree, as capacity reductions by the legacys did not free up any gate space at key markets Jetblue required for this type of expansion.

Also, with regard to assumptions, JB has made no mention of deferring any a/c orders. JB will sell perhaps 2 to 4 of the oldest (relative) a/c to a foreign carrier for profit. JB will continue assumption of all a320s at this time. Getting rid of the earlier a/c is a smart decision because the MX warranties are expiring.

Whatever Jetblue announces at their 1st Q press conference will only be preliminary. Wherever they can get the best deal on keeping growth of the 320 fleet at a minimum is what they will do. In the beginning if they can get a good deal on the sale of older a/c, they will do that. Don't rule out the fact that they may defer deliveries of new a/c at the 2nd Q news conference in July. That will still all depend on how DLs and NWA future plays out.

imp:

 

[Snoopy Mendoza]

April 25, 2006 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.

1st Qtr. 2006 Conference call...

 

[jaxgus]

Leased Not Owned

Would it not be a smart move to sell two or three of the earlier aircraft in the fleet that are approaching the seven year mark? With demand for the 320 pushing the 200 mark in the world market it may be prudent to sell or lease these a/c. These a/c are owned by B6 and command ticket prices upward of $45m. Slowing down may mean replacement of older a/c with new options and keeping the growth neutral for a while. A smart move as the heavy checks are on the horizon and mx costs are being controlled while increasing cash flow. Sounds like a wise adjustment in MOI.

The first nine aircraft are leased so we would be ending the lease early not selling them.

 

[DIAMONDDD]

I thought JetBlue didn't pay for airplanes anyway. Are they now not unpaying for their airplanes. I'm confused.

 

[Russ]

From GL

"Sounds like you are getting nervous"

Who's company is in bankruptcy and faces possible liquidation if labor issues cant be solved? I would think you might want to shoot JB a resume.