Is Delta Hiring?

[regionalcap]

Even if Delta hires, it will first be the flowthroughs, the ASA female FOs with no PIC time, the WAI members, and the OBAP candidates. THEN the rest of us.

I know some male FOs that were also hired with no PIC time. What's your point?

 

[SLUF4]

I'm pretty sure Delta didn't hire 5 black female FO's from ASA in 2010.

 

[jonjuan]

I'm pretty sure Delta didn't hire 5 black female FO's from ASA in 2010.

Cmon-let him feel better about his disappointing life.

 

[Muskycat]

I heard this from the Senior VP of Ops a month ago.

-300-400 more bodies needed for the LGA-DCA slot swap alone.
-Flight time duty time (them not knowing the language) could need 700-900 more.
-180 early retirements mostly from 330 and 747....need to backfill but not doing it right now, due to no idea what network wants.
-330 getting 12+ hour bunks for four man ops....(no numbers given, but more bids to go out once complete).
-That age 65 thingy ain't working out so well, and all a guy has to do is turn in papers and be done with no notice. (has them alarmed, but no numbers given)
-2013 a couple hundred of retirements a year starts up for the next 10 years.

That's the good news....

Bad news...
-243 bypassed recall, some may return...
-it all depends on the economy.

Actually about 10,000 pilots will retire based on age 65, from 2011 to 2033. The numbers start around 200 a year, then work up to 800+ (2021 thru 2024) a year in 2021, then decrease back down to 200+ a year in 2033. S0, the averages start at 200, peak at 800+, then slowly back to 200. During this time period, there will be 15 consecutive years of 400+ (400 to 700; 2017 thru 2031) retirements per year.

Basically, the word is to start hiring in 2012 and we don't know when it'll stop. I'm guessing the company is going to want to achieve a narrow body vs wide body pay rate in our 2012 contract, or some incentive to cut massive training cost over 20+ years.
And not to mention the added LGA flying and long haul international mentioned in the above post.

 

[nwaf16dude]

I'm sure there are some out there somewhere, but I have never seen a black female delta pilot.

 

[On Your Six]

Actually about 10,000 pilots will retire based on age 65, from 2011 to 2033. The numbers start around 200 a year, then work up to 800+ (2021 thru 2024) a year in 2021, then decrease back down to 200+ a year in 2033. S0, the averages start at 200, peak at 800+, then slowly back to 200. During this time period, there will be 15 consecutive years of 400+ (400 to 700; 2017 thru 2031) retirements per year.

Basically, the word is to start hiring in 2012 and we don't know when it'll stop. I'm guessing the company is going to want to achieve a narrow body vs wide body pay rate in our 2012 contract, or some incentive to cut massive training cost over 20+ years.
And not to mention the added LGA flying and long haul international mentioned in the above post.

That's what I am hearing as well. There will be a lot if movement, especially if a new contract will include some relief on retirement health insurance. If so, there will a flood of people leaving, especially FNWA pilots that still have a pretty good frozen pension.

Contrast that with relative slow retirement numbers at SWA, at around 150 a year max for the next 10 years, and the addition of the overall younger Airtran group, and I would think prospective pilots would choose DL or another legacy. Especially if payrates rise in future contracts.



OYS

 

[twobits]

Not to depress the ever so positive outlook here, but Delta is not going to be hiring for a long time - at least 2013 and maybe later. Why? Not the economy, but network inefficiencies that will result in base realignments (why else would the 330's be getting bunks for 4 man). You can sugar coat it all day long, but in the end, Delta only needs around 8500 pilots to be an efficient operation with the routes that it wants. This is after it hands out flying to other carrier's. With that said, when pilot hiring does resume (2015 at the earliest), at least there will be some movement at a few hundred bodies a year finally! Everyone has few years to brush up on their jive before any major influx of pilots at Delta.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Ok twobits....

Network innefficiencies? Do tell? It's called FLEET issues. 22 330's, 21 764's 15 747's, and they want to fly them everywhere!! They can't just base them somewhere and expect to be able to touch all points of the world they like. This is just the nature of the beast. If they could figure it out, they would have.....

Expect more deadheads, more random schedule drawdowns and rampups and chaos....

Although, the truth is , RA never met a codeshare he didn't like. So point taken there Mr. Sunshine!

 

[jonjuan]

Not to depress the ever so positive outlook here, but Delta is not going to be hiring for a long time - at least 2013 and maybe later. Why? Not the economy, but network inefficiencies that will result in base realignments (why else would the 330's be getting bunks for 4 man). You can sugar coat it all day long, but in the end, Delta only needs around 8500 pilots to be an efficient operation with the routes that it wants. This is after it hands out flying to other carrier's. With that said, when pilot hiring does resume (2015 at the earliest), at least there will be some movement at a few hundred bodies a year finally! Everyone has few years to brush up on their jive before any major influx of pilots at Delta.

You also said last year that they wouldn't hire until '12. Whoopsadaisies.....

 

[ASA_DFW]

deleted

 

[GogglesPisano]

You can sugar coat it all day long, but in the end, Delta only needs around 8500 pilots to be an efficient operation with the routes that it wants.

Please, Professor, tell us what formula or inside information you utilized to caclulate this fact.

 

[On Your Six]

Not to depress the ever so positive outlook here, but Delta is not going to be hiring for a long time - at least 2013 and maybe later. Why? Not the economy, but network inefficiencies that will result in base realignments (why else would the 330's be getting bunks for 4 man). You can sugar coat it all day long, but in the end, Delta only needs around 8500 pilots to be an efficient operation with the routes that it wants. This is after it hands out flying to other carrier's. With that said, when pilot hiring does resume (2015 at the earliest), at least there will be some movement at a few hundred bodies a year finally! Everyone has few years to brush up on their jive before any major influx of pilots at Delta.

With huge retirements occurring for the next 15 years, training will be a huge issue. One retirement at the top can generate 10 trainings below, primarily because there are many different fleet types. Delta isn't Southwest because it flies all over the World, needing different sized planes for different missions. All of those retirements means lots of people continually in 6 week courses, and waiting for IOEs and TOEs, necessitating more pilots on hand to take up the slack. Some years coming up have 700-800 people retiring at age 65, if they make it that long. SWA, OTOH, has one or maybe two plane types with the 717 now, and only 150 per year scheduled to retire, along with the relatively young AT group coming onboard. Totally different compared to Legacies and their future retirements.



OYS

 

[Sacha]

OYS
Man that sounds great. So as a Delta new hire, you shouldn't have too long to upgrade. What do you think? A couple of years? Maybe three? Do you have equipment locks? I remember my Delta buddies telling me back in 96/97 that they would bid other equipment just to get all the time off because the training center was all jammed up. They were even shipping people out to America west for sim training. They thought it was kinda funny how ticked off the CEO Leo Mullins was because it was costing the company a small fortune. Word from my Buds that they were carrying an extra 1,000 pilots just to handle the training float. Hopefully you will get to take advantage of the same type of deal again.

 

[Sacha]

OYS
Its a sweet deal looking at your airline like that..........until the music stops.

But then you already know that since you were at United.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I heard this from the Senior VP of Ops a month ago.

-300-400 more bodies needed for the LGA-DCA slot swap alone.
-Flight time duty time (them not knowing the language) could need 700-900 more.
-180 early retirements mostly from 330 and 747....need to backfill but not doing it right now, due to no idea what network wants.
-330 getting 12+ hour bunks for four man ops....(no numbers given, but more bids to go out once complete).
-That age 65 thingy ain't working out so well, and all a guy has to do is turn in papers and be done with no notice. (has them alarmed, but no numbers given)
-2013 a couple hundred of retirements a year starts up for the next 10 years.

That's the good news....

Bad news...
-243 bypassed recall, some may return...
-it all depends on the economy.

That's about right. From what I am hearing there will be 330 backfill on the next AE. Also some growth spots on the 330A in ATL.

They may need a few bodies late this year or early next, but they cannot go through 2012 without hiring. Their words not mine.

Also, retirements peak at about 813 a year in 2022. Half of the list will be gone by that time. Average age of the early out pilots was 60.5 and the average age of a pilot leaving before the early out was 62.7.

 

[formerdal]

Saw BB on a layover a few weeks ago and asked him if we would ever hire again? All he said was "in 2012." from the horses mouth....

 

[twobits]

Intuition is how I came up with 8500 pilots by 2016. However, if you are on the bottom of the list thinking that you will be in an A seat in less than 5 years and that makes you happy - go ahead and keep the dream alive! I on the other hand, am not trying to rain on your parade, but just give folks here that are super excited about retirements (etc...) a reality check. You don't have to agree with me - but you might want to take it into consideration for future planning.

 

[jonjuan]

Twocups, get over your little self. No one over at DAL expects a 5 year upgrade. What's your anger toward Delta? You have hundreds of posts saying Delta won't hire, will shrink, etc. I have more than a few buds there and without exception, all are happy to be there. Fact is, 50% will be mandatorily gone in 10 years at 65. People retiring 3-4 years prior and movement will be massive (unlike SWA).

 

[On Your Six]

OYS
Man that sounds great. So as a Delta new hire, you shouldn't have too long to upgrade. What do you think? A couple of years? Maybe three? Do you have equipment locks? I remember my Delta buddies telling me back in 96/97 that they would bid other equipment just to get all the time off because the training center was all jammed up. They were even shipping people out to America west for sim training. They thought it was kinda funny how ticked off the CEO Leo Mullins was because it was costing the company a small fortune. Word from my Buds that they were carrying an extra 1,000 pilots just to handle the training float. Hopefully you will get to take advantage of the same type of deal again.

Being a Corndog, you only have the choice of going to the left seat, continuing the same type trips you always do, with a couple stops through St Louis etc. Being new, I am enjoying my current base and routes, but my previous corporate job had a bit of interesting international flying, so my next step will be to go over to the 767 and see some places I haven't been to in awhile, maybe for a few years, until I get the urge to fly domestic again, maybe on a new 100 seater we may order very soon, maybe by then in the left seat. I can always switch back and forth, maybe eventually over to the 777 as an FO, or again to a narrowbody for even better QOL. Ah, choices. The retirements are real, 2000 in the next 5 years, and double that within the next ten. Word is hiring will start early next year, and continue for years. You just can't argue with actual retirement numbers, unless the retirement age goes up again. From what I have been told, the difference between now and the extra pilots in the late 90s is that there was no penalty to furlough back then, whereas there is a flowdown to Compass and Mesaba now that kept the company from furloughing during the last recession in 2008, due to costs. Not a certainty, but good nonetheless.


OYS

 

[On Your Six]

Intuition is how I came up with 8500 pilots by 2016. However, if you are on the bottom of the list thinking that you will be in an A seat in less than 5 years and that makes you happy - go ahead and keep the dream alive! I on the other hand, am not trying to rain on your parade, but just give folks here that are super excited about retirements (etc...) a reality check. You don't have to agree with me - but you might want to take it into consideration for future planning.

Intuition..... Wasn't there an article stating 7500 retirements within 15 years to age 65? Yes, yes there is. If they come from the top, then that means a lot of movement going up. This airline will never have one type of plane, and by 2017 there will still be md88/90s, 320/19s, 744s, 777s, 75/76, 330s, and 737s, with the possibility of 100 seaters like the C-series. What does that mean? Training will continue.


OYS