Industry is getting bad

[TAWS]

DAL will take a loss on Comair (no buyers), and they will disappear, allowing DAL to post a huge hit on it's balance sheet and force a "the sky is falling" scenario on it's employees. If they can't succeed in forcing labor groups to merge with NWA, they will dip into BK in the next 2 years.
UAL and CAL will raise it's head again and XJET will be the lucky loser.
MESA is going to lose it's appeal in Hawaii and suffer another huge one in court, when Aloha gets it's day!
MESA will go into BK and will disappear, as even UAL leaves it twisting in the wind!
SkyWest will slow down, but will force any hits that it has to take on ASA. Overall, SkyWest will be fine.
RAH has already started pulling away from the 50 seat market and this will accelerate - it's hard to be objective about the company you work for, so any thoughts??
Colgan will grow with the Q400 and will expand it to UAL and others.

 

[siucavflight]

http://www.ata.com/

Sorry for the doom and gloom.
Getting worse.

 

[USCtrojan]

http://www.ata.com/

Sorry for the doom and gloom.
Getting worse.

I hate the state of the industry in general, but it's market correction. Some will fold and whoever can weather the storm will see rapid growth and profits returning in excess.

Trojan

 

[USCtrojan]

DAL will take a loss on Comair (no buyers), and they will disappear, allowing DAL to post a huge hit on it's balance sheet and force a "the sky is falling" scenario on it's employees. If they can't succeed in forcing labor groups to merge with NWA, they will dip into BK in the next 2 years.
UAL and CAL will raise it's head again and XJET will be the lucky loser.
MESA is going to lose it's appeal in Hawaii and suffer another huge one in court, when Aloha gets it's day!
MESA will go into BK and will disappear, as even UAL leaves it twisting in the wind!
SkyWest will slow down, but will force any hits that it has to take on ASA. Overall, SkyWest will be fine.
RAH has already started pulling away from the 50 seat market and this will accelerate - it's hard to be objective about the company you work for, so any thoughts??
Colgan will grow with the Q400 and will expand it to UAL and others.

DAL will have enough $$ to weather any storm. If they sell Comair, it will just improve their cash positions. Anytime another Carrier ceases operations, Delta will benefit. The Airline Market is correcting itself, all the way back to 2001. Right now it's a game of who has the most money to outlast any and all competition. Whoever is left standing will see rapid expansion and soaring profits. Southwest is another who will weather the storm no problem, (lots of cash on hand).....SkyWest the same.

Trojan

 

[PA44Jockey]

DAL will have enough $$ to weather any storm. If they sell Comair, it will just improve their cash positions. Anytime another Carrier ceases operations, Delta will benefit. The Airline Market is correcting itself, all the way back to 2001. Right now it's a game of who has the most money to outlast any and all competition. Whoever is left standing will see rapid expansion and soaring profits. Southwest is another who will weather the storm no problem, (lots of cash on hand).....SkyWest the same.

Trojan

With the state of our economy, the price of oil and all other things in mine, I don't see rapid growth or rapid profits for at least 5 years or so. I am no analyst, but it will take a number of years to turn this situation around.

 

[USCtrojan]

With the state of our economy, the price of oil and all other things in mine, I don't see rapid growth or rapid profits for at least 5 years or so. I am no analyst, but it will take a number of years to turn this situation around.

So who will take over those routes when other Carriers cease operations? Start ups? Possible, but I doubt it. Less competition=higher seat prices. That will offset the cost of fuel. If DAL, UAL, CAL, or whoever is left standing gains that market share (they will), they will have more control over ticket prices. Cash is king, and whoever is left standing will grow. Somebody has to pick up the slack, it won't just fade away.

Trojan

 

[CopilotDoug]

Don't forget UAL parking 20 planes, possibly up to 100

 

[CopilotDoug]

So who will take over those routes when other Carriers cease operations? Start ups? Possible, but I doubt it. Less competition=higher seat prices. That will offset the cost of fuel. If DAL, UAL, CAL, or whoever is left standing gains that market share (they will), they will have more control over ticket prices. Cash is king, and whoever is left standing will grow. Somebody has to pick up the slack, it won't just fade away.

Trojan

Is that what they're teaching in Aviation Colleges now? I like the optimism, but I don't see the bar coming back up at any airline. Look at Wal-Mart....they're crushing the competition. Why aren't people flocking for those jobs? The airlines are just another job with few benefits.

 

[Cpt Oveur]

It's no doubt that the airframes these companies used will have lives at other companies, but there will be fewer seats to Hawaii with the loss of ATA and Aloha. Less competition doesn't mean higher ticket prices.

 

[USCtrojan]

Is that what they're teaching in Aviation Colleges now? I like the optimism, but I don't see the bar coming back up at any airline. Look at Wal-Mart....they're crushing the competition. Why aren't people flocking for those jobs? The airlines are just another job with few benefits.

It's not rocket science genius.

Supply/Demand......If there is less supply and a relative constant demand....It would stand to reason that you can raise ticket prices. I didn't say anything about a bar being set. I did, however, say that with less competition (and it's looking significantly less now), surviving Airlines will have an ability to raise fares without being undercut. Return to profitability. Cash is king, everyone with significan size will bleed. Who can weather the storm? Those with the most $$ in the bank.

I agree with you about just another job. No doubt the Industry has forever changed for the worse. That has been a precedent set roughly 8 years ago. You were probably born around then, so I can't hold you accountable.

And why do you think it is United reducing their fleet? Could it quite possibly be, and I'm just spitballing here, to free up CASH? UAL wants to be standing while others fall. They can then offset their losses with the growth from other failed Carriers. Or they can get an infusion of Cash from somebody else? CAL? SkyWest possibly? Who knows?


Trojan

 

[USCtrojan]

It's no doubt that the airframes these companies used will have lives at other companies, but there will be fewer seats to Hawaii with the loss of ATA and Aloha. Less competition doesn't mean higher ticket prices.

Then what drives price? If capacity doesn't drive the price of a ticket what does? Hawaiian Airlines will certainly see a benefit from the loss of Aloha.

Trojan

 

[MoroniMetro]

Then what drives price? If capacity doesn't drive the price of a ticket what does? Hawaiian Airlines will certainly see a benefit from the loss of Aloha.

Trojan

Ocha!

 

[MoroniMetro]

Then what drives price? If capacity doesn't drive the price of a ticket what does? Hawaiian Airlines will certainly see a benefit from the loss of Aloha.

Trojan

Economics are fun! Shall I call you DR.?

 

[USCtrojan]

Economics are fun! Shall I call you DR.?

Sure! I'll call you my little B!tch!

Trojan

 

[USCtrojan]

It's no doubt that the airframes these companies used will have lives at other companies, but there will be fewer seats to Hawaii with the loss of ATA and Aloha. Less competition doesn't mean higher ticket prices.

AP (AP) - _ The abrupt shutdowns of ATA Airlines and Aloha Airlines won't keep travelers off Hawaii's shores altogether, but they could make an already expensive vacation destination even pricier and potentially put the leis and luaus out of reach for many.
Flights to and from Hawaii had been a key part of ATA's business ever since the Indianapolis-based carrier scaled back its route network following a previous trip through bankruptcy in 2006.
On Thursday, the airline suddenly quit flying, leaving passengers on the islands and elsewhere stranded as it again headed for bankruptcy court. Virtually all the carrier's more than 2,200 employees were laid off.
"It'll hurt," said Minneapolis-based airline expert Terry Trippler. "They did a lot of business to and from Hawaii at fairly reasonable prices."
The surprise announcement came just two weeks after Aloha filed for bankruptcy protection following years of losses. The airline, which served the state for more than 60 years and was the islands' second-largest carrier, ended passenger service Monday and is hoping to offload its cargo business this month. It flew both inter-island routes and flights to the mainland.
The one-two punch, coming at a time when the airline industry is already straining under rapidly rising fuel prices, will likely prompt remaining carriers to push their fares even higher, industry observers said.
"They've really been thrown a curve ball. Nobody really expected two major competitors to go away," said Robert Mann, an independent airline analyst in Port Washington, N.Y. "When you pull out a major carrier, it's going to create a lot of demand on the remaining carriers."
Hawaiian Airlines, the state's biggest airline, could emerge as the biggest winner following its rivals' collapse. The carrier flies to nine cities on the mainland -- more than any other airline -- including all four markets where ATA operated. It also controls a hefty share of inter-island traffic.
A number of other domestic carriers also fly to the islands, and each will likely see additional traffic flowing their way now that two rivals are out of the picture.
Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines competed against ATA on direct flights from Los Angeles, for example, while US Airways challenged the carrier in Phoenix. Northwest Airlines, United Airlines, American Airlines and Alaska Airlines all also fly from multiple mainland destinations.
"It helps all the carriers who fly from the U.S. mainland to Hawaii," Avondale Partners airline analyst Bob McAdoo said. "There'll be less seats offered at really deep discounts."
Flights between the islands could also grow more expensive.
Hawaiian and Mesa Air Group, the parent company of inter-island carrier go!, have each recently announced plans to add spare planes and flights on routes within Hawaii to help make up for the loss of Aloha service.
Even so, experts doubt fares that have fallen as low as $49 or less one-way are sustainable over the long term.
"It's an unrealistically low price," Mann said.
© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

 

[CopilotDoug]

It's not rocket science genius.

Supply/Demand......If there is less supply and a relative constant demand....It would stand to reason that you can raise ticket prices. I didn't say anything about a bar being set. I did, however, say that with less competition (and it's looking significantly less now), surviving Airlines will have an ability to raise fares without being undercut. Return to profitability. Cash is king, everyone with significan size will bleed. Who can weather the storm? Those with the most $$ in the bank.

I agree with you about just another job. No doubt the Industry has forever changed for the worse. That has been a precedent set roughly 8 years ago. You were probably born around then, so I can't hold you accountable.

And why do you think it is United reducing their fleet? Could it quite possibly be, and I'm just spitballing here, to free up CASH? UAL wants to be standing while others fall. They can then offset their losses with the growth from other failed Carriers. Or they can get an infusion of Cash from somebody else? CAL? SkyWest possibly? Who knows?


Trojan

So what is your point about ticket prices? Did you just want to be the first to point out the obvious? I'm saying: The ticket prices can go up all they like...the pilots won't get their cut, which is total BS.

United is dumping older 737-300's. Could be one of many reasons: Reduce debt, fleet modernization, freeing up cash...whatever it is, it goes back to money.

 

[DoinTime]

There was a time between 1984 and 1988, that at the majors you made Captain in five years, pay rasies, better benefits, it was a great time

'84-'88 a great time? Maybe if you were a scab.

 

[USCtrojan]

So what is your point about ticket prices? Did you just want to be the first to point out the obvious? I'm saying: The ticket prices can go up all they like...the pilots won't get their cut, which is total BS.

United is dumping older 737-300's. Could be one of many reasons: Reduce debt, fleet modernization, freeing up cash...whatever it is, it goes back to money.

My point about ticket prices is that when they go up, the Airline has a better chance at surviving so it can pay its employees. You see, right now most of Aloha and ATA's employees will not have a job. That means they don't draw a paycheck, I amazingly deduced that. Right now, I don't think anybody is thinking practically about raises. Most in this Industry are hoping they still have a job. That's enough for right now, don't you think? The music is stopping. And it's gonna get uglier, unfortunately. All those laid off employees have to start over somewhere, most likely no where near where they want to be. It sucks, all the way around. Even those that do survive will most likely have some pains.....Mergers, seniority list integrations, etc. But at least, most likely, they won't have to start over, hopefully. Nature of the business, I guess. Sucks, but it is what it is.

Trojan

 

[CopilotDoug]

My point about ticket prices is that when they go up, the Airline has a better chance at surviving so it can pay its employees. You see, right now most of Aloha and ATA's employees will not have a job. That means they don't draw a paycheck, I amazingly deduced that. Right now, I don't think anybody is thinking practically about raises. Most in this Industry are hoping they still have a job. That's enough for right now, don't you think? The music is stopping. And it's gonna get uglier, unfortunately. All those laid off employees have to start over somewhere, most likely no where near where they want to be. It sucks, all the way around. Even those that do survive will most likely have some pains.....Mergers, seniority list integrations, etc. But at least, most likely, they won't have to start over, hopefully. Nature of the business, I guess. Sucks, but it is what it is.

Trojan

I do agree. It's a big S--t sandwich and we all gotta take a bite

 

[pilotyip]

Not true

'84-'88 a great time? Maybe if you were a scab.

Reserve buddy of mine hired AAL 1984, just about the first guy hired after the recalls, made Captain in 1988. He has had no lay offs, never moved out of the Capt's seat. It was a good time for pilots.