Industry cycles

[johnpeace]

Maybe some of you guys who have been around for a long time could help with a little encouragement...

I came within a hair of going to Mesa Pilot Development back in '01. We toured the school at Farmington, met with some students, met with some staff, had financing...it looked so enticing, 16 months and X thousand dollars and I come out ready to sit in the right seat of an RJ ( I knew nothing of the industry, Mesa or anything at the time). The day of my FAA medical exam I woke up and saw the jets fly into WTC 1 & 2. We decided it would be sort of stupid to launch an airline career in the face of that and shelved our plans.

3 years later, I wish I had gone.

Right now looks like a PERFECT time (industry rebound wise) to be sitting on all the required training, 1500 or so hours and previous 121 jet experience.

Instead, I just finished PPL and am going the slower, more traditional route (a few years later even). I'll be going into training pretty much full time this summer and expect to be working as a CFI (finally) this time next year.

Now I am reading about regionals lowering minimums and thinking oh crap oh crap the train is leaving the station and I don't have my ticket yet!!

If we're at the beginning of a rebound in the flying industries, historically...how long does the rebound last? I understand the +/- times are cyclical in nature (historically) and just wonder if I'll be able to catch the train before it stops again.

Any insight from some of you guys that have been around a long time?

 

[Resume Writer]

Maybe some of you guys who have been around for a long time could help with a little encouragement...

I came within a hair of going to Mesa Pilot Development back in '01. We toured the school at Farmington, met with some students, met with some staff, had financing...it looked so enticing, 16 months and X thousand dollars and I come out ready to sit in the right seat of an RJ ( I knew nothing of the industry, Mesa or anything at the time). The day of my FAA medical exam I woke up and saw the jets fly into WTC 1 & 2. We decided it would be sort of stupid to launch an airline career in the face of that and shelved our plans.

3 years later, I wish I had gone.

Right now looks like a PERFECT time (industry rebound wise) to be sitting on all the required training, 1500 or so hours and previous 121 jet experience.

Instead, I just finished PPL and am going the slower, more traditional route (a few years later even). I'll be going into training pretty much full time this summer and expect to be working as a CFI (finally) this time next year.

Now I am reading about regionals lowering minimums and thinking oh crap oh crap the train is leaving the station and I don't have my ticket yet!!

If we're at the beginning of a rebound in the flying industries, historically...how long does the rebound last? I understand the +/- times are cyclical in nature (historically) and just wonder if I'll be able to catch the train before it stops again.

Any insight from some of you guys that have been around a long time?

First, let me say that had you gone through the Mesa program, you would not necessarily be in the seat of any aircraft - with or without 9/11. When they make that "promise" the only thing they are saying is they will give you an interview - not a job. So, do not kick yourself for not getting in sooner or taking the traditional route. I think you made the right decision because they probably would not have been a job at all for you with all the furloughed pilots on the street.

Second, here is what I have seen having been around this industry for 18 years. In the late 1980's, the industry was booming. Then, right around the turn of the decade, things started to come to a halt. What I saw was much like we are seeing now. In 1991, Eastern closed up their doors. Shortly after that came Pan Am after the Lockerbie (sp?) disaster with Flight 103. In the midst of that was AWA in bankruptcy. In that down time there were a few start-ups like Morris and Reno Air. LCC's that eventually got sucked up by the big boys. It took about 4-5 years for the industry to rebound again and hence the big time hiring at UAL, AA and DAL in the late 1990's, early 2000.

However, the cycle started again. Airlines were having issues long before 9/11 - it just brought airlines to their knees a lot quicker. When this whole thing started again, I had predicted that by 2004/2005 we would start to see things pick up again, and they have.

Now, I have not been around as long as some people have on this board, but it seems to run in 5 year cycles; 5 good years, 5 bad years. I know some old-timers who have been through 8 airlines in their careers. If you are looking for stability, this is not the industry for that. It is really all a matter of timing. Even at 14-15 years you are not safe - just look at USAirways pilots.

I truly think you are in a good position now. You will see some movement now at the larger airlines, which will move the regional people, which will move the Flight Instructors. When you finish your total training and get some time under your belt, I believe you will hit a good hiring cycle.

Just my two cents from almost two decades in this business. (wow, that statement makes me feel old!)

Kathy

 

[taxicabdriver]

Nobody can predict the future of the airlines. If its something you want to do then do it, if not don't waste the time or money. Its like trying to time the stock market, anyone can give you a guess but when it comes down to it thats all it is, a guess.

 

[johnpeace]

Um, yes...thanks.

I'm not changing my direction based on what I get as a guess from anyone here...just looking for pointers and guidance in how to interpret the signs.

Resume Writer, great input...thanks. I'm kind of wound up with anticipation at the impending abandonment of my desk for a job at the airport/in the plane and well, just appreciate the reassurance.

 

[350DRIVER]

John,

First and foremost you cannot re-write history so don't worry about it. The Mesa program works, bottom line and they will hire most all grads who complete the program.. Is it easy? absolutely not, but the reward is a job waiting at the end at right around 300 hours TT or less. My hat is off to Mr. Rich Castle for proving how successful a program like this can be. It is not a matter of quantity of flight time, more important the "quality" of it. They also have the PACE program that you may want to look into when you complete your training, just my $.02. . I have had many friends that have went through the program in 96/97 and they are currently at America West, Airtran, ATA, and others. I suggest this program to all those who ask me for career advice and guidance. If I knew what I know now I could have shaved months/years off of the time that it took me to get to where I am at present day and would have went this route (MAPD) without a second thought, it works....

Hang in there... No matter how bad this industry looks present day there are still a large number of carriers that are still hiring, just going to take you longer this route to get there.

Only two things you can count on in this life, 1) you will pay taxes 2) you will die, everything else in between is nothing more than a gamble...

good luck

3 5 0

 

[mar]

You need to fly junk

I fly junk.

John--Resume Writer gives good advice...from the standpoint of hiring.

350driver gives good advice...from the standpoint of gettin' an airline gig.

And Taxicabdriver makes a lot of sense from the standpoint of the heart.

Here's my crappy advice from the standpoint of being behind the left hand stick and rudder:

The longer the road to the airlines, the better pilot you'll be.

Forget about jets right now. Jets are for people with little minds. Sure they're shiney and fast. Lots of state-of-the-art gizmos and such. It's all for people who can't fly.

Wait a minute. Let me re-phrase that. All that technology and comfort is for people that already *know* how to fly. You don't want to learn how to fly in a jet cause you'll learn all the wrong lessons.

The lessons you need to learn are in a piece of junk recip twin overloaded and picking up ice at night with the weather going down at your alternate.

This is how professional pilots learn where the edges are. Some (most) will disagree with me. To hell with them. Before a company entrusts a multi-million dollar ship and 100 lives to your hands you need to have already explored your limits and the physical limits of flight--here's the important part--on your own.

You need to do that stuff *by yourself*.

I've flown with pilots that never instructed (you can tell the difference in their depth of knowledge and attention to detail).

I've flown with pilots that have never flown single pilot IFR (you can tell the difference in their confidence and decision making).

I've flown with pilots who have stared at glass for thousands of hours and can't seem to *scan* their way out of a wet paper bag.

Don't take any short cuts. Instruct until you can draw Lift and Drag curves in your sleep. Instruct until you know the FAR/AIM front and back. Instruct until you are truly the master of that single engine trainer and then instruct some more until you're the master of that widow-maker the light piston twin.

Then get a job flying junk into serious IFR weather at night. Hopefully you'll have a complete and utter reject from normal society as your boss. I hope he throws a fit whenever you're not flying and the vis is better than 1/4sm.

And then hopefully there'll be some freighters still around with FEs. And I hope you get called out in the middle of the night to a preflight in the rain with min rest. Maybe you're still slightly hung over...

And then you get furloughed...

...twice...

...and by now, the Cycles of the Industry have waxed and waned, ebbed and flowed, come and gone who knows how many times? Who cares?

I don't care because if you're flying my family around I don't want anyone up front that hasn't had the same experience...you know, unless you're ex-military or something else...

But the point remains: If you go from a 172 to a CRJ you ain't got no skills and you ain't got no judgement and you ain't got no decision making. All you got is some stripes and a heck of a lot of debt.

And the smart money says you're complaining about it. To whose surprise? Not mine. I fly junk.

Best wishes.

 

[Smoking Man]

mar I never thought I would see you type ain't.


As far as cycles go, well this industry is just like a motor cycle, there will be a crash you just don't know when!

 

[350DRIVER]

Mar has made some very valuable and excellent comments relating to the "experience" factor. Just make sure that whatever route you would end up taking would allow you to grow in the areas of knowledge, experience, etc. Sometimes the "fastest route" is not always the "best route", keep in mind that even though a program like MAPD works so very well for so many it does not work that well for some. Quite a bit depends on personal preference and what your career desires and ambitions are. Obviously MAPD will prepare you to be a safe, proficient, and a good airline pilot at a low given total time due to the program set up but it will not help you out for too many other jobs in this industry should you not make it to the line as a Mesa pilot. Failure cannot be an option if you go this route since at such a low total time you will not be that competitive to latch on to too many other pilot jobs within this industry should you wash out of this program. It is a "gamble", not a very easy one and this route will require a lot of hard work, dedication, and a lot of studying to stay ahead of the curve. If you fall behind and get written up for missing a deadline (which goes into your file) then you will be screwed and most likely will be washed out of the program. With that said, there is absolutely nothing wrong with working your way up the ladder and taking a different route. Nothing will be handed to you on a silver platter, most of what you get in this industry is earned through hard work and dedication so just hang in there. If you want to get to the right seat at X airline then the MAPD is the fastest way to get there, if you want to be a 135 freight pilot/corporate pilot then I do not suggest going this route since it will do little for you if anything.

I thought the single pilot part 135 gig was quite beneficial from the "experience" standpoint due to the hard imc, equipment, etc, etc. Flight time will not make you a good pilot, the "quality" and "experience" of that flight time is much more important and may end up saving your @ss one day. I have flown with guys with 4000 hours + who I would never trust to fly my family around and on the other end I have also flown with guys with 400 hours who were extremely sharp and knew their stuff. Whatever route that you take just make sure that you soak up as much experience and knowledge on every level since it will one day pay off at some point down the line. You never know what the future has in store for you so prepare and get the experience that is priceless. Don't worry about the "flight time" issue, too many people put too much emphasis on that, easier to just pencil whip the log book if that is what you are really concerned with. Get the experience and the rest will fall into place at some point down the line.

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But the point remains: If you go from a 172 to a CRJ you ain't got no skills and you ain't got no judgement and you ain't got no decision making. All you got is some stripes and a heck of a lot of debt.
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I agree with mar on most points as I have mentioned other than this one.. If one chooses to go the MAPD route you actually get your private in a A-36 then transition into a Baron, then a 1900 for X amount of hours, then CRJ sim time. These guys are tested and pushed to the brink from day 1 and if they are not within standards then they are washed out. They must still pass indoc, systems class, sim training, oral, flight check, ioe, etc, the same training that is required for all other new hires. They are not given any breaks due to what flight time they have, whether or not you are a 300 hour pilot or a 2000 hour cfi hired from the outside the reqts are the same. If they are not within standards and if they cannot pass the required training then they will not make it to the line as a first officer, bottom line.


Is this the best route of training? It depends on what your career ambitions and desires are. That would be like asking whether or not Coke is better than Pepsi, you will get different opinions as you will here, it really comes down to personal preference. If being an airline pilot is not what you want to do then you probably should look elsewhere and save a lot of money in the process.

Take your pick.. You will be flying for peanuts for the first three years or so, is it worth it? Depends how much money means to you....

good luck

3 5 0

 

[TEXAN AVIATOR]

Nice posts Mar, 350, taxi, and kathy......

 

[HAL]

Good replies all. While I've been around longer than I care to say, I can say that I saw the dip in the early 80's while I was in college and just starting flight training. I did the long slow route in training and by the time I was ready around 1990 the roof caved in again and I had to wait out the low cycle once more.

My father started in the airlines in 1937 and I've discussed this subject with him in the past. He said that it really was a 10 year cycle with the low periods lasting 2 to 5 years. The low spots were the early 40's (WWII), early 50's, early 60's, early 70's, (see a pattern?), early 80's, early 90's, and now in the early 2000's too.

Yes we're coming out of a low in the industry, but do what you need to do to become a good pilot. I'll echo Mar's post about needing to be a good pilot before you go to the jets. My suggestion: become a CFI. It is the single best way to repeat the basics over and over again until you become a very very good pilot. Do Not become a CFI and look at it as just a 'time building' job to get to the airlines. Learn from it, and realize you are training your future co-pilots - you want them to be good too. Respect them and concentrate on the teaching. Your flight time will build on its own, and you'll turn out better pilots if you concentrate on them rather than your own flight time.

And finally, once you have the flight time, start applying to all the airlines you qualify for. You can make the decision on where to go once the offer is made. Remember, the single most important thing in an airline career is your seniority number. If I'd been hired just one month earlier at Hawaiian (or even been the most senior person in my own class) I'd be back from furlough already, instead of still looking at several months to go.

So remember - 1) Become the best pilot you can, and 2) Once you are a good pilot, don't hesitate to apply everywhere. Seniority can determine the course of your career.

Good luck!

HAL

 

[johnpeace]

"The lessons you need to learn are in a piece of junk recip twin overloaded and picking up ice at night with the weather going down at your alternate.

This is how professional pilots learn where the edges are. Some (most) will disagree with me. To hell with them. Before a company entrusts a multi-million dollar ship and 100 lives to your hands you need to have already explored your limits and the physical limits of flight--here's the important part--on your own."

OMG...

This is wonderful.

If I can set it up this way, I swear I will build a whole career out of jobs like this.

I didn't communicate that I'm not in a hurry to get to the airlines. I don't even want to fly for airlines.

What I really, really want to do in aviation is what you described. Sine it doesn't look like you can make a living at that, I've sort of identified charter/corporate/frac as my ultimate landing point...but I have the expectation that I'm 8-10 very exciting, wonderul, challenging years away from the left seat of turbine equipment.

Thanks Mar...I'm printing that and hanging it on my office wall for encouragement when I need it.

 

[mar]

The crux of the matter

If being an airline pilot is not what you want to do then you probably should look elsewhere and save a lot of money in the process.

Ten years ago, I couldn't imagine anyone who wanted to be at the airlines more than I did. Long story short, I find myself flying groceries and mail to Bering Sea villages.

Unexpected result: I diversified my background and skills and I became a better pilot.

All I wanted to do was build a little time and make some money. Forget about eskimos and dog teams...

But it dawned on me, the best pilots have the most diverse backgrounds.

Try not to have tunnel-vison towards the airlines (though stay focused) but concentrate more on building a solid resume, solid airmanship, solid judgement, solid skills, solid knowledge.

The truth of the matter is this: All of the choice jobs are gotten by recommendation anyway. You could, quite feasibly, squeak into a really good job with no skill whatsoever...

...but it would show.

And at the end of the day you want your crew to have nothing but the highest regard for your skills and judgement because they just might help you get your next job.

Take the long road.

[Edit: John I just read your response. I don't mean to harp. I'm just tremendously bored tonight. I'm glad you found something of value and please use your head when testing those limits.]

 

[350DRIVER]

Unexpected result: I diversified my background and skills and I became a better pilot.

I think this was probably a smart thing to do, who knows what the future will have in store for you or anyone else for that matter. Always give yourself some sort of plan B should plan A fail, do not limit yourself. I can think of many different ways to achieve a desired outcome, some take more time, other routes will take less time. The bottom line is make sure you are happy in whatever you may be doing whether it be flying a 100 pax aircraft around or doing what you are doing present day. If you are not happy then it will make for a rather boring and difficult time(s). I have met more than a few who took jobs because they thought that it would help them get to where they wanted to get to, many are still stuck and are quite unhappy. One must crawl before they can walk so take your time. Since you have no desire or ambition to fly for the airlines then it was a smart choice not go to MAPD. The airlines are not for everyone... You can save a lot of money by doing your flight training under part 61 at a local flight school versus going to a FSI/MAPD and given your wants/desires then this is probably what I would suggest doing. Take your time, enjoy the ride, and learn as much as possible at every level.

But it dawned on me, the best pilots have the most diverse backgrounds.

With the more "diverse" backgrounds will also come the more experience. (in most cases) An old TWA captain once told me years ago when I asked him to define what a "good pilot" was and I still think of his response every now and then, he said " a good pilot is someone that after 30 years of flying takes his final flight and in that 30 years he has never hurt/scratched a pax or dinged a piece of metal up, that is what I call a "good pilot". All it takes it one screw up, one error, one incident that can pretty much make a bad day turn into a horrible day. Number one objective should always be to minimize as much risk and as much vulnerability as you can, keep the odds in your favor no matter what area of this industry that you are in.

The truth of the matter is this: All of the choice jobs are gotten by recommendation anyway. You could, quite feasibly, squeak into a really good job with no skill whatsoever...

This is very true, especially in this industry. I have always said that if you can get a good (hard to come by) corporate/135 gig then you probably could run for public office and win. There is a lot of politics in this industry.. It is not what you know but who you know. Network, network, and network and don't burn any bridges along your way. I have seen all too often that someone who was qualified for a job was turned down due to the fact that he p!ssed someone off years back who knew someone at the place that he was trying to obtain employment at. Word will travel in this industry no matter what so keep your nose clean. Aviation is a very tight nit and small community.

And at the end of the day you want your crew to have nothing but the highest regard for your skills and judgement because they just might help you get your next job.

Well said, and the "respect" that you earn from your fellow pilots is something that you want. Always lend a helping hand when able, "respect" is something that is earned over time.

This is how professional pilots learn where the edges are. Some (most) will disagree with me. To hell with them. Before a company entrusts a multi-million dollar ship and 100 lives to your hands you need to have already explored your limits and the physical limits of flight--here's the important part--on your own."

You can explore your "limits" but you must know what you can and cannot get away with, this only comes through experience and knowledge. I am sure mar does not intentionally look for these sorts of situations to transpire and occur. Just remember that when "exploring" you will need to keep in mind that you are not in control of all variables and some may b!te you hard if you make a mistake. It is more important to know your limitations, equipment, regulations, company, etc, etc versus wanting things to happen just to see what it is like. Experience is not something that can be had overnight, it will take many years in this industry to know what you can and can't let slide and still remain safe and get the job done. I am sure mar is a safe pilot that does not push the envelope to the limit with regards to wx/equipment.


Take your time and enjoy the ride. Since you have no interest or desire in the airlines then you have many options that are available to you.. Some of the older more experienced guys like avbug and bobbysamd will offer much advice on this board that is priceless in my opinion.


good luck to you,


3 5 0

 

[johnpeace]

...
[Edit: John I just read your response. I don't mean to harp. I'm just tremendously bored tonight. I'm glad you found something of value and please use your head when testing those limits.]

No no...this is wonderful.

Man, I've wondered at times if some of you guys actually had it in you to pull your heads out of your butts and actually say something...useful. You've really exceeded my expectations tonight.

Thanks.

The route that you are describing is exactly the way that I want to go. I'm *so* glad I didn't actually do the Mesa thing...I said I wished I had, but I think I just wish that I had the hard part of training behind me and enough of a qualification to be trying to get a job right now. You're right though...it's a long and wonderful road and the trip can be enjoyed no matter what stage of it you're at today. That's great to hear.

I really appreciate your honesty and candidness, thanks.

 

[dsee8driver]

I fly junk.

I've flown with pilots that have never flown single pilot IFR (you can tell the difference in their confidence and decision making).

I've flown with pilots who have stared at glass for thousands of hours and can't seem to *scan* their way out of a wet paper bag.

Gosh Mar, this brings back sum memories....

I don't care because if you're flying my family around I don't want anyone up front that hasn't had the same experience...you know, unless you're ex-military or something else...

Now, now, I met a few ex-mil guys flying Harriers in NC that could not fly worth a crap!



MAR who do you fly the DC6 for?

 

[Publishers]

Cycles

To try and answer the part of your question, there are a number of elements that contribute to the nature of the business and its ups and downs.

1. Economic flows in the United States-- Obviously there is a connection to the general econimic health of the country.
2. Governement Regulations-- Changes in government regulations of the airline industry changed the whole game in one single moment.
3. Technology -- Think trains and then someone comes up with a new way to move people. While it is hard for people to believe, passengers get on airlines to get somewhere. Better alternative and they will take it.
4. Value-- one can price themselves out of the market they serve.
5. Supply and demand, not only of pilots but planes, support systems, mechanics, etc.

All of these work together to effect change and cycles. The only truism is that things rarely remain static. Hence they cycle.

 

[mar]

To defy all expectations

Man, I've wondered at times if some of you guys actually had it in you to pull your heads out of your butts and actually say something...useful.

Yeah. I know. Believe it or not, some of us *do* love to fly.

And Publisher: Believe it or not, some of us *do* want to move the people and freight where they need to go.

And Pubs just brushed past a larger lesson to the professional pilot: Never forget who the customer is. Never forget why you're flying that airplane.

So many of us think we're just out there for our own goals. That's true--to a point. I mean management uses us and we use management. But I'll tell you what, if you ever get hooked up with a *good* company it's better to leave that (we use them and vice versa) attitude at the door. Better then to focus on the customer and then *everyone* is happier!

DC8driver:Northern Air Cargo

 

[Birdstrike]

Exceeding Expectations

Every now and then somebody kick-starts this board with an extremely well done piece. Resume W and 350 Driver's inputs were well worth reading, but I thought Mar knocked it out of the park with his "I Fly Junk" response. That's the kind of wisdom that many may have, but few can express. Reminds me of the old Gordon Baxter column in between the shiny pictures of King Airs parked on beaches. Gordo wouldn't have gone to Mesa either (not that there's anything wrong with that!). Nicely done all around.

 

[Publishers]

Mar

What Mar points out in his "I fly Junk" is the answer to the debate -- What is the difference betwen a pilot and an aviator. He is an aviator.

Now there are some that say I do not appreciate the life of a line pilot never having been one. Well true, but I have been in an Aztec flying checks across the mountains of West Virginia carrying checks and watching the ice forming on the wings.

Airline industries are not the only thing that has cycles. People do too.

 

[Caveman]

There are also guys 'flying junk' because they didn't have the skills and professionalism to move on to an airline. If that sounds insulting, it was meant to be. You just insulted a whole bunch of competent and professional aviators with your insinuation that the only way to be a 'good' pilot was to get beat up flying rubber dog $hit in poorly maintained piston airplanes in crappy wx. That kind of flying does help garner critical skills and critical thinking, but it isn't the only way. The path you took worked for you and the path others have taken has worked for them. I could point out that junk flying didn't work because so far you haven't made it to an airline even though that was the stated goal. That would be unfair though, because, as you have found out, sometimes fate and circumstance point us in another unforeseen direction. No plan survives contact with the enemy.