A 20% reduction by DAL & UAL of capacity hardly equates to a gate sale.
Well as far as I can see DFW will have a major gate sale. UAL hasn't been forced to do the same, but they will in the next 12 months at various facilities. Maybe you can explain yourself, you tell us which gates at LGA DAL and UAL will surrender?
DAL will give up zero, but I believe UAL will give up a gate. UAIR will surrender quite a few though in LGA and DCA. Look at Delta's & UAL's current LGA facility, they could eaisly reduce by 20% and not have to return a single gate.
I agree. The same goes for BOS, SFO and DCA.
BOS and SFO could see a few gates released by UAL and UAIR. They definitely will get back any gates that ATA has.
As far as DFW. I would look for the rath of AA to come into play. They can easly match any domestic fare war with AA Eagle pricing. I would also look for AA to try to aquire the DAL gates. this would allow them to move domestic feed closer to the new intl terminal (AA gets their way at DFW).
Sorry, but DFW is not stupid enough to get into a similar situation like PIT. AA would love to surrender the current Eagle facility.
Never happen. It would be a whole lot easier to move the regional flights to the A gates vs their current out post. So what appears to be extra capacity at DFW, is not.
So what you are really talking about is the additional capacity created by the departure of USAir and ATA. Let's see who is best suited to move in and take over MDW, PHL and BWI? Jet blue with approx 55 aircraft may possily be able to redeploy some assets but hardly enough to make a dent. Humm......Don't kid yourself
The airline with the most to gain is the only one with out a single Embraer and NO plans of getting any.
We'll see bout that. WN now has over 400+ jets, accepting what looks like one a week (if you have been out BFI, all you see is LUV tails). They could eaisly get Boeing to make more considering they currently have plans for a fleet of over 725 aircraft. They are the only airline with the assests and the mgt team that will allow them to redeploy into profitable new markets over night. Which airline has the stock piles of cash to negotiate and secure that many leases with the various municapalities? SWA will move in take what they want and the others will pick at the scraps. B6 a few gates at IAD, maybe Airtran gets a couple more at DFW. Neither airlines mgt team will break away from their curret philosophy to directly take on SWA, head to head.
I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself. WN certainly is the 800lb gorilla, and they are presently redeploying assets to more profitable markets, but I don't see them being able to monopolize any one airport like they used to. Don't forget that FL, F9, B6, AWA, Spirit, Flyi, and VUSA will have more new a/c coming on board in the next few years than WN. Airports are just not going to let any one airline monopolize their gates. Besides the bondholders will make sure that doesn't happen.
So if all this capacity opens up, as you are suggesting. I am sure it will just remain vacant until the ERJ 190 fleet is up and running.
All I was predicting was that the independent regionals will have trouble surviving. The ones with significant fleets of RJ70/90's and Ejets will do quite nicely.
