Important ASA meeting on Monday

[Medeco]

Ding ding ding! We have a winner.

However I am resorting my order of likely scenarios. New order from most likely to least likely:

1. Multi-party agreement involving the private equity company, Mesa and SKYW as part of any equity stake in DAL.

2. Private equity company, with HH in charge, buying ASA and CMR.

3. MESA alone.

4. SKYW alone.

SKYW alone is still my last choice.

Get your bets down before the dice roll................

I would love to work for a company owned by Hollis, he is a man of great respect and has done alot of good for the companies he has been a part of.

Many old time Delta people will tell you the beginning of the end of the "good ol days" at Delta was when Hollis was passed up for the #1 and Ron Allen took the spot.

My HOPE is that he is in on this deal.


Medeco

 

[~~~^~~~]

I'm in the Mallard making sure the gear is up for landing with Capt. Merchant on this one.

As the bargaining agent, doesn't ALPA have to be notified on a change of ownership? Get on crewtrac and find your Captain's Rep.

 

[Medeco]

I'm in the Mallard making sure the gear is up for landing with Capt. Merchant on this one.

As the bargaining agent, doesn't ALPA have to be notified on a change of ownership? Get on crewtrac and find your Captain's Rep.

Fins,

You really believe we are being split between the two companies?

Is that what I get from this post above?

Has anyone heard or asked a CP today about this meeting that was happening today?

ANY WORD?

Medeco

 

[~~~^~~~]

No word at all.

I asked a CP, he said he was reading the web boards like we are. Directors and up are at the meeting, no one else. But then again, I think the Directors have a meeting every monday.

I'm thinking some sort of private equity deal. I do not believe that MESA has the horsepower to successfully pull off an ASA, or Comair buy. Skywest has the money to do it, but the good sense not to.

Republic Holdings is a tough competitor for any of the Delta Connection airlines because CHQ is willing to price their product at, or below, cost in exchange for growth.

There is little reason to buy ASA & Comair if you know up front that you can't price the product about a 4 to 5% margin (on a good day). Throw in a single unscheduled engine removal, or bad weather day, in a QTR and your profit is shot. Then there is the whole issue of Delta maybe writing checks that will not cash....

Some of the large private equity investors may not be as sensitive to some of the realities of running an airline. The Carl Ichans and Frank Lorenzos of the world will do strange things on a bet. For the amount of revenue airlines bring in, they are very good deals. The problem is that nobody has an idea on how to make a stable profit in this industry right now. Heck, I think Southwest will be posting losses as soon as their hedges expire. The re-designed network carriers are competitive monsters - fuel has just hidden all the progress that has been made.

 

[Medeco]

No word at all.



The problem is that nobody has an idea on how to make a stable profit in this industry right now. Heck, I think Southwest will be posting losses as soon as their hedges expire. The re-designed network carriers are competitive monsters - fuel has just hidden all the progress that has been made.

I heard a money head on TV this weekend say that Southwest is hedged until 2009!

If this is true, then they want oil to stay high for as long as possible to kill the competitors, Southwest is hurt only if oil price goes down, if infact they are hedged until 09.

Medeco

 

[Texx]

I heard a money head on TV this weekend say that Southwest is hedged until 2009!

If this is true, then they want oil to stay high for as long as possible to kill the competitors, Southwest is hurt only if oil price goes down, if infact they are hedged until 09.

Medeco

Just because someone is hedged doesn't mean that much. You have to look at the price and the percentage of the hedge.

SWA is at approx. 75% at $27 until next year. Then it drops to about 65% at $27. These number are approx.