I thought AWA was doing good!!!

[Realyman]

Whats up over there? I think they will furlough within a year from now.

 

[TWA Dude]

What is up over here is fuel prices, same as (almost) everyone else. CEO Parker has been warning about our earnings since the summer so it's no surprise. What's good is that our cash-on-hand is still very strong and thus should carry us until fuel prices normalize. Furloughs next year? You might as well be predicting the World Series winner for '05 -- you're free to guess but at this point it's meaningless.

 

[Realyman]

Hopefully no furloughs, but it just seems like they are a year behind ATA. I will keep my fingers crossed for my friends there.

 

[AnimalTale]

Whats up over there? I think they will furlough within a year from now.

I think the reason u thought AWA was doing good was because of the motivation and hype of all the new hires and hopeful applicants enthusiastically waiting to get hired or get a chance to get hired by their favorite Airline (the one that is hiring).. The reality is that AWA has a great managemnt team, that took over from a piece of garbage (FRANKE) former team. With this in mind, Parker has to work some miracles to turn the boat around... ALSO the FUEL prices are killing just about everyone, SWA excluded...

I wish the best for CACTUS...Their loads are always heavy..They have a great niche in PHX but FRANKE, HIGH FUEL PRICES and LOW TIX PRICESmight kill them, along with the rest of the industry. Just a reality.

 

[AnimalTale]

What's good is that our cash-on-hand is still very strong and thus should carry us until fuel prices normalize.

Hey Bro,, I have been reading that prices of OIL will go to 60 bucks a barrel and continue for the unforseeable future. I am sick of analyst forecasts, When do u think fuel prices will drop?

 

[xanderman]

That didn't take long...

This is the first losing quarter in over a year. Give AWA some much deserved credit. As for furlough... well that strikes me as extremely premature.
Andy

 

[Cactus73]

Wow talk about doom and gloom. Watch our 3Q webcast and you will see that we are just fine. Furlough's? What are you smoking? We have 22 airplanes coming next year.

Air Tran lost just as much proportionally as we did. They took a tax credit that we didn't take. It made their net loss look smaller. Look at the pre-tax losses and the size of the two companies.
Yet, no one is predicted the doom of Air Tran.

I think you are wrong about "new hire" hype. Many on Wall Street still regard our stock as underrated. This was one's take on it yesterday:

"With shares near a 52-week low, capacity growth moderating, and a cost structure others airlines salivate over, America West now represents one of our top picks and our sole overweight-rated low-cost carrier," Baker wrote in a note.

Southwest has a great fuel hedge. jetBlue still has some of the lowest costs in the industry. This is why they are doing great.

AWA is not going bankrupt. ATA is a very different situation. They are sitting on very high cost leases on brand new airplanes. They have huge problems pricing their product and managing yields. They are also a large charter company which has its own issues.

Yes, we have issues. We have a lot of debt. We have a high interest ATSB loan. We have an aging fleet of 737's. But our year over year CASM's (excluding fuel) keep getting lower.

I would be concerned about the whole industry right now. Fuel prices represent a crisis no airline is immune to. (well except WN who has $24 fuel hedges).

 

[xanderman]

Yeah

Wow talk about doom and gloom. Watch our 3Q webcast and you will see that we are just fine. Furlough's? What are you smoking? We have 22 airplanes coming next year.

Air Tran lost just as much proportionally as we did. They took a tax credit that we didn't take. It made their net loss look smaller. Look at the pre-tax losses and the size of the two companies.
Yet, no one is predicted the doom of Air Tran.

I think you are wrong about "new hire" hype. Many on Wall Street still regard our stock as underrated. This was one's take on it yesterday:

"With shares near a 52-week low, capacity growth moderating, and a cost structure others airlines salivate over, America West now represents one of our top picks and our sole overweight-rated low-cost carrier," Baker wrote in a note.

Southwest has a great fuel hedge. jetBlue still has some of the lowest costs in the industry. This is why they are doing great.

AWA is not going bankrupt. ATA is a very different situation. They are sitting on very high cost leases on brand new airplanes. They have huge problems pricing their product and managing yields. They are also a large charter company which has its own issues.

Yes, we have issues. We have a lot of debt. We have a high interest ATSB loan. We have an aging fleet of 737's. But our year over year CASM's (excluding fuel) keep getting lower.

I would be concerned about the whole industry right now. Fuel prices represent a crisis no airline is immune to. (well except WN who has $24 fuel hedges).

What he said!

This is obviously why you were hired before me... You are much smarter. Good post Cactus73.

 

[TWA Dude]

I am sick of analyst forecasts, When do u think fuel prices will drop?

I once dabbled in oil and gasoline futures. Now I just play the nickel slots with all the old ladies. I don't even try to make predictions in this industry or others.

 

[Tomct]

I think Cactus will be just fine. Yeah, the oil is killing everyone, but I think that it will come down within the next year! Atleast I hope so...anyway, I am anxiously waiting my interview date!!