How Long?

[Trash8Mofo]

The blame shouldnt be placed upon the pilots of any seniority, but the system itself. Have anyone heard of mom'n'pop med schools? How about mom'n'pop law schools? Dentist school? Nursing?....Have anyone gone to a hospital where in the back of it, one can find, say...... Leading Edge Medical Training Inc. Thats what weird about flight training. There are no test to take in order to gain entrance to learn. Anybody can learn, and as long as you can keep coming up with the money, you will eventually make it. There are no limit to the supply of pilots, and managment know that. I'd say we should keep the flight training providers to military and formal flight schools approved by some sort of a porfessional standard association. One can still learn to fly at the mom and pops, just not getting an ATP.

 

[BoilerUP]

The blame shouldnt be placed upon the pilots of any seniority, but the system itself. Have anyone heard of mom'n'pop med schools? How about mom'n'pop law schools? Dentist school? Nursing?....Have anyone gone to a hospital where in the back of it, one can find, say...... Leading Edge Medical Training Inc. Thats what weird about flight training. There are no test to take in order to gain entrance to learn. Anybody can learn, and as long as you can keep coming up with the money, you will eventually make it. There are no limit to the supply of pilots, and managment know that. I'd say we should keep the flight training providers to military and formal flight schools approved by some sort of a porfessional standard association. One can still learn to fly at the mom and pops, just not getting an ATP.

Once again, one of the most socialist, elitiest things I have ever read.

So people can learn at the "mom 'n pops" but they can't get an ATP there. Fair enough. Last time I checked, most pilots let "THE MAN" pay for their ATP in the form of an upgrade. So the "mom 'n pops", the scourge of this profession, still pump out commercial pilots able to hold jobs with regionals and 135 operators. Your solution has solved nothing.

Would you advocate those schools not being able to train towards Commercial certificates, then? Would we require all new-hire airline pilots to hold an ATP? Talk about driving the cost of aviation training through the roof; have you taken a serious look lately at any of the large 141 schools out there (FSI, Pan Am, Delta Connection, etc)? They are RIDICULOUSLY overpriced for what you get. This would cause the people with deep pockets to have an even better shot at getting ahead of the broke-azz who can't afford the big shiny school.

You have an idea, which is great, but look at the big picture - that wouldn't do anything to help the situation. Short of unions growing a pair and standing firm and the tightening of training standards (within the PTS, but most importantly within indoc), I don't see a solution to the problem.

As long as Flying magazine has glossy color ads that say "Shortage of airline pilots!" and the myth that all airline pilots work 7 days a month for 250K continues to perpetuate, we'll have this issue.

 

[:-)]

As long as Flying magazine has glossy color ads that say "Shortage of airline pilots!" and the myth that all airline pilots work 7 days a month for 250K continues to perpetuate, we'll have this issue.

I first obtained a PPL for pleasure, so I am slightly different from those who started out with the intention of flying professionally. When I decided to try my hand at the profession, I knew going in that I couldn't do the professional pilot gig if it was going to take a hundred grand investment to make a ten grand return. The only way I could justify the investment was the knowledge that I could eventually earn a BIG wage. That doesn't look possible for todays beginners. BTW, don't try to guess my age, but I spent less than $10 grand for PPL to MEI/CFII

I still want to know if you guys think that beginners will still flock to the profession now that top wages have taken massive cuts. When I started, I never really assumed that I could make $250/hour as a UAL 747 Captain, but I knew that doing so was possible. I might still make that seat, but I've been doing this a long time. Now, it seems likely that a beginner might never make it to the left seat of a whale; and even if he could, the money's not going to be there. If you can't get to the big money, why start the journey?

Hobbes

 

[pilotyip]

Left seat of whale easy

We have a former DA-20 Captain, with a short tour at NWA as a DC-9 F/O (hire summer 01), in his early 30's, who is in seniority for a whale Captain's job at a cargo outfit. The whale left seat is available int'l flying, and achievable for the beginner. Therefore, it is obtainable for those who like to fly for the sake of flying. As stated before, if you like to fly you will enjoy a career flying, if you are in it for the money you may be disappointed.

 

[:-)]

We have a former DA-20 Captain, with a short tour at NWA as a DC-9 F/O (hire summer 01), in his early 30's, who is in seniority for a whale Captain's job at a cargo outfit. The whale left seat is available int'l flying, and achievable for the beginner. Therefore, it is obtainable for those who like to fly for the sake of flying. As stated before, if you like to fly you will enjoy a career flying, if you are in it for the money you may be disappointed.

I'm surprised that a Naval aviator such as yourself has the same reading comprehension trouble as do way too many others.

Your response has nothing to do with my question. I still want to know how many people who are currently NON-PILOTS will enter the profession now that compensation has tanked. I'm sure that you know young people who are in line for whale Captain, but they are already in the game. I want to know about people who are not currently in the game.

 

[vetteracer]

IPO76 This made my whole day!!

Thanks.


Quote
Originally posted by TopGun-MAV
i want to be an rj fo (they are cool). who's the best company to work for? will mesa hire. i'm experinecd in the airline industry, i have over 400tt most of it turbine. i think i have masterd the be1900, time to move on.

 

[vetteracer]

Quote

"Your response has nothing to do with my question. I still want to know how many people who are currently NON-PILOTS will enter the profession now that compensation has tanked. I'm sure that you know young people who are in line for whale Captain, but they are already in the game. I want to know about people who are not currently in the game."

I would say the number is dropping. The flight schools that I poke in once in a while are down with active students. I did most of my training in the mid nineties and there were many students and 4 or 5 times the instructors at these schools. It would be interesting to see the enrolment numbers and "change of major" numbers at UND and other pilot universities. I graduated from a large state university with a new aviation program. I was one of the first to graduate from the program. The instructors and professors boast 250K salaries at the top airlines. And, RJ jobs are there for graduates. They sell education with dreams of great pay. Someone needs to bring these schools into the 21st century. But their marketing department would never allow that.

Things will change and I predict a pilot shortage in the next ten years. The vacuum will be filled quickly so if you are in the profession hold on and catch the wave when it comes by. People are leaving aviation and they are throwing in the towel during training. I have 4 or 5 friends that have just under 135 mins that are fed up and are tossing in the towel for other careers. They figure they should start over now while they are young. So out of my circle 1/3 of the commercial pilots are done with aviation. The other 1/3rd are hobby flight instructors. And they are giving the lowdown to all their students, or for anyone for that matter.

 

[pilotyip]

2007 hiring boom

..<) If I could read I would have become a USAF pilot. The hiring boom will return in June of 2007. (see previous threads) and those young pilots who skip college and go straight into flying and have a 1000 hours of turbine time in 2007 will get head of the line perference. We have the 22 year old pilot, no degree 2000 hours 1500 MEL, 700 turbin, 250 turbin PIC, and he will be logging TJ PIC in 2006. When he is 26 he will have alot of choices. Pilots are pursuing the wrong career path with the 4 yr degree, CFI, regional, route. Go cargo! If this board had been around in 1993, when the famous "Will fly for food" posters were being displayed, everyone said there is no future in flying, the glory days are over, we will never see the boom of 1988 again. Well the guys who started flying in 1993 had alot of choice by 1997. If you want to be a pilot start flying, stay away from girls and you will find a good job in the future.

 

[BoilerUP]

..<) If I could read I would have become a USAF pilot. The hiring boom will return in June of 2007. (see previous threads) and those young pilots who skip college and go straight into flying and have a 1000 hours of turbine time in 2007 will get head of the line perference. We have the 22 year old pilot, no degree 2000 hours 1500 MEL, 700 turbin, 250 turbin PIC, and he will be logging TJ PIC in 2006. When he is 26 he will have alot of choices. Pilots are pursuing the wrong career path with the 4 yr degree, CFI, regional, route. Go cargo! If this board had been around in 1993, when the famous "Will fly for food" posters were being displayed, everyone said there is no future in flying, the glory days are over, we will never see the boom of 1988 again. Well the guys who started flying in 1993 had alot of choice by 1997. If you want to be a pilot start flying, stay away from girls and you will find a good job in the future.

Said pilot will have alot of choices, provided the companies he applies with don't require a bachelor's degree. Hope he doesn't want on with FedEx or UPS. That having been said, I'm sure there are quality jobs out there for people with those qualifications, just not the "big names".

As you have often said, college degrees don't make for better pilots, and on that point I agree. But lets not discount the benefit of a diploma...

 

[:-)]

Quote

People are leaving aviation and they are throwing in the towel during training. I have 4 or 5 friends that have just under 135 mins that are fed up and are tossing in the towel for other careers. They figure they should start over now while they are young. So out of my circle 1/3 of the commercial pilots are done with aviation. The other 1/3rd are hobby flight instructors. And they are giving the lowdown to all their students, or for anyone for that matter.

Thank ya, Thank ya verry much. I've been away from flight schools so long, I no longer know anyone working for one. Neither do I have any network amongst the beginners. Thanks for your insight into their present attitudes.

I wish that we could all make a living flying airplanes, but the oversupply now is making for a tough career.

Again, Thank you.
Hobbes

 

[N8Dogg]

Maybe it is time the general public should understand just how little pilots make their first several years. This will pursuade guys/gals looking into aviation to pursue more lucrative careers outside of aviation and increase demand for our "professional" services. Limited supply = higher demand = livable pay. How about it ALPA?

 

[FN FAL]

Maybe it is time the general public should understand just how little pilots make their first several years.

The public WANTS you to work for free. What is there to understand?

 

[surveypilot]

Student Starts

Quote

I would say the number is dropping. The flight schools that I poke in once in a while are down with active students. I did most of my training in the mid nineties and there were many students and 4 or 5 times the instructors at these schools. It would be interesting to see the enrolment numbers and "change of major" numbers at UND and other pilot universities.

I think that you will find that at most aviation universities, you will find that student enrollment is just as cyclical as the industry. However, it lags behind the cycle by 2-3 years. It takes that long for the current reality of the job market to filter down to the average student. This means that right now when we are hopefully nearing the end of a downturn, flight schools have just finished churning out thousands of new commercial pilots. This creates a rubberbanding type effect in the number of available pilots compared to the number of available students. This creates the false notion of a pilot shortage on the upswing of a hiring cycle.

Just my observations.

 

[NuGuy]

I'm surprised that a Naval aviator such as yourself has the same reading comprehension trouble as do way too many others.

Your response has nothing to do with my question. I still want to know how many people who are currently NON-PILOTS will enter the profession now that compensation has tanked. I'm sure that you know young people who are in line for whale Captain, but they are already in the game. I want to know about people who are not currently in the game.

Hiya Bud,

Yup, I see that almost everybody dodged your question. I have often wondered the same thing myself.

You are absolutely correct in saying that at some point, it will trickle down that there is zero cash in this business except to the lucky few who slide in and out when the timing is good.

So here's the deal... You are going to pay 40-50k for a college degree (and despite what Yip said, you still need a degree to be competitive with all the other yo-yos out there), and now you are going to spend another 40-50k for your ratings just to get in the door.

All for what? 250 hours.

Ok, after that, lets add the 2-3 years of living at poverty wages working sh!t jobs for vindictive a$$holes. I'm sure everyone can agree here that the number of scam artists and low brow operators outnumber the decent aviation businesses by a good margin.

Oh boy, now you can be a "regional pilot" who starts at 22k a year while working horrendous schedules. Bust your hump for another 3 or 4 years and oh boy, you're a regional captain, making 50-60k tops, and then only if you are working for a "top" operator. Looking down the road to $100/hr? Well, have good binocs cause it's 20 years away.

With all the majors in the tank, where do you go? SWA pays pretty well, if you are one of the VERY few who gets hired (in the big picture of things). FedEx and UPS still pay ok, but gee, I see alot of those DHL commericals on the TV lately...how soon until they are caught in the same mess as the pax carriers?

Even with the start ups...the only way they REALLY attract anyone is the "lotto" mentality of the stock options. It worked for SWA, and is apparently working for B6. The real deal with this, though, is control. You hook the first 150 guys who walk through the door, and management knows that their greed will keep the rest who come after in line. Those guys could care less about what their hourly rate is, they just want the stock price to go up, because thats where the real money is.

Of course, the thing about the start-up is this...no chance at "big" iron and no real international flying. So much for adventure...hello Akron, Ohio. Just enough money to keep you in credit card debt as you try to live the "pilot lifestyle", but without the real money.

But back to the question at hand...so you pay 100k or more for a degree and your ratings. Work slummy jobs for 6 years or more just to be "qualified" and what does it get you? A CHANCE, that's right, a miniscule CHANCE of getting the big money, which really isn't that big. Bust a medical or get a DUI along they way, and kiss even that miniscule chance goodbye.

Anyone with half a brain in their head could see that you could go to an Ivy League or big name school for that time and effort, and come out of it on the other end with a MUCH bigger payout. If you have the brains enough to pass the CFI oral, with its plethora of tiny details you can do well on a LSAT. If you have the capacity to pass a 727 engineer oral, you can do well on a MCAT if you study enough. If you have the stomach for working for flaming a$$holes for 6 years, then you can start a business and work for yourself, which is the only way to make any REAL money.

So, whos left to do the flying if all the smart people figure out the whole deal sucks? Well, on the civillian side, you have the trust fund kiddies, who's weathly folks will do anything to get junior out of the house. Anyone smart enough to be in the military will know it's a sucky deal and do something else OR wait until they have their 20 in.

You might run across the odd dude/dudess that's doing it for the "love", but they'll split once a better deal comes along...like mowing the grass at the local GA airport.

Nu