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How long until pilots replaced with UAVs??

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I think that fifteen years is a reasonable figure for freight.

Passenger service will probably occur after ten years of trouble free freight ops at the earliest.

It will probably look a lot like the airforce program. You will have a bunch of pilot/dispatchers in a building somewhere. Each operator will be responsible for five or ten flights but should something go wrong you will have two people dedicated to the troubled flight.
 
For once the glacial pace at which the FAA approves new technology will help delay this a few decades, I think/hope. But in a 20 year time frame I can see crew requirements getting pruned down, as pilots on long haul flights- and eventually not just freighters- become custodians on crew rest in bunks, not even monitoring systems except when there's a data-comm failure on ARINC.

I'd like to believe we can hold a line in the sand for a minimum of 2 pilots at all times, but I think money will eventually talk it down to 1, and maybe zero on some freighters. On the flip side, if burger-flipping wages gradually become norm for all pilots as trends continue, maybe they'll keep a few of us around.
 
i'm glad i got to freight dog it in the DC-3 , before the silicon chips take over,seriously though, not in our lifetime.
 

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