How long before airlines start hiring again?

[cybourg10]

Okay have you seen a socialist society, Because I have. I was in West Germany when the Wall fell and have a peice of it along with a Russian Socialist flag from a split republic. I have visited berlin when there was a wall seperating east from west. So to answer YOUR question...Why yes I have, and it sucked and that is why east and west Germany is one!!!!

And do you think that our current society is at all like the West German society before the wall fell? We have never been a true free market capitalistic country but we are far from West German socialism. We don't have true capitalism and we don't have true socialism, we have Coporate-ism and different rules for different classes. Its amazing to me how one party can spout off about the other being "anti-american" or "socialist" when they themselves can't see their own hypocrisy. Wake the hell up and realize that both parties are equally accountable for the downfall of America, and yet we continue to vote them in office because we the people can't seem to pull our heads out of our a$$es. Stop arguing over abortion or gay marriage or "pretend socialism" for two seconds and realize what real danger this country is in and what needs to be done about it. Continue listening to the doped up Rush Limbaugh, he'll keep telling you what you want to hear.

 

[JustaNumber]

Cybourg10,
You never answered me in post #46. Do you agree with the basic principles of the founding fathers?

 

[cybourg10]

Cybourg10,
There is actually much that we have in common. I agree with just about everything you wrote (except for the part about Obama's fiscal policies being in line with conservative ideals--spending more in one month than the combined spending of the U.S. Government since its inception is hardly a conservative ideal).

What we can agree on is that politicians on both sides have sold us down the river. They divide and conquer by convincing us to hate each other, while they ruin the country with their own self interest. Doesn't it tick you off that the country is falling apart, and the news is just talking about what Rush did or didn't say?

What we need to do is ignore what the political parties are telling us. We need to focus on the principles we agree on, which are hopefully the same principles agreed on by the founding fathers. Then the solutions to our problems will be self-evident. Be honest. Don't lie. Don't steal. Believe that justice is blind, and no one is above the law. Believe that we all have a right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, but that there is no guarantee of equal results. Believe that you work hard for your money, you will give to charity what you want, if you want, without threat of force. Believe that the government answers to us, we don't answer to them.

Do you agree with these principles? They are the answers.

I guess to stay on topic as well, I'll say the economy starts to improve in late 2010, as all the printed pork money starts to enter the economy, but then inflation goes through the roof. The Fed will be then forced to raise interest rates to stratospheric levels in an attempt to cool the economy in a controlled recession that lasts several more years, a la the Carter years. Those were the real good-ol'-days, huh?

Not bad prediction, I don't think we see double digit inflation from this but its definately a possibilty. We will most likely see 8-12% interest rates. the real question is after this settles down do we continute to spend more than we make as individuals and country as a whole or do we actually learn from our mistakes and start living within our means and paying down our debt to the Chinese? We also have to fix our trade defecit which is currently the largest trade defecit in the world, its time to start making things in the USA again.

 

[JustaNumber]

Cybourg10,
You never answered me in post #46. Do you agree with the basic principles of the founding fathers?

You still didn't answer me. While there is much we can agree on, we'll never get anywhere if you don't even want to admit that basic principles of right and wrong are the main things we must agree on. Someone once said, if you don't have a set of core principles to guide you, when a crisis hits, people can convince you to do anything.

 

[time builder]

I'm no economist, but there are factors aside from the economy that put us in this situation. Age 65 in particular.

2012 is something to look forward to, but I think you also have to look at flight crew to passenger capacity ratios. Outsourcing to regionals created jobs a few years ago. Higher gas prices and less differential in pay scales between majors and regionals could reverse this trend.

In other words, if they consolidate several RJ routes back to Boeings (or even larger capacity "RJs") that can carry the same number of passengers with less pilots, this drought of pilot jobs may continue past 2012.

More speculation than prediction here. Hope for the best.

 

[jmreii]

I'm no economist, but there are factors aside from the economy that put us in this situation. Age 65 in particular.

2012 is something to look forward to, but I think you also have to look at flight crew to passenger capacity ratios. Outsourcing to regionals created jobs a few years ago. Higher gas prices and less differential in pay scales between majors and regionals could reverse this trend.

In other words, if they consolidate several RJ routes back to Boeings (or even larger capacity "RJs") that can carry the same number of passengers with less pilots, this drought of pilot jobs may continue past 2012.

More speculation than prediction here. Hope for the best.

I have degrees in both business and finance. I still do not understand how airlines in the U.S. make money. The hub and spoke system works well when the economy is good, but it is wasteful in terms of personnel or assets. The industry seems like it is more interested in serving anyone instead of it's core customer which depends on the airline and the region it serves. Customer service is a problem along with too many airlines(seats) chasing too few dollars. The only other industry that I can think of that is very similar to the airline industry is the auto industry. It too requires heavy capital intensive investment and little return on your investment such as a riverboat gambler. No easy fixes here??

 

[cybourg10]

You still didn't answer me. While there is much we can agree on, we'll never get anywhere if you don't even want to admit that basic principles of right and wrong are the main things we must agree on. Someone once said, if you don't have a set of core principles to guide you, when a crisis hits, people can convince you to do anything.

I guess I missed that part. The thing about basic principles is they can be different for everybody. Some founding fathers were very religous and some mocked religion so basic principles may change depending on the person's background and religion. I believe we need a set of laws that protect the basic human rights of individuals, but we can't even agree on what those are. People used to have "core principles" that slaves were okay or that women were inferior to men. I am not very impressed with the "core principles" of some of my fellow countrymen. Its a tough topic because there is no correct answer, and just because we have a democracy and leave it to the people to decide what should be law or not is not always the best route. We will never agree on basic principles. It sounds like you are saying we need to atleast agree on these principles and build our country around them, well it seems every generation has its own ideas of what is right and wrong and that we need to adapt our laws to a constantly changing world......

 

[JustaNumber]

Cybourg10,
I appreciate your well thought out response. While I understand what you are saying, I disagree with you. Yes, the founding fathers were hypocrites, but they knew they were hypocrites. You have to remember that they were trying to design the most perfect form of government they could from scratch, but they were not trying (or able) to redesign a new perfect society from scratch. The colonies were what they were, with slavery warts and all. So the brilliant founders came up with a set of principles that they put into the Declaration of Independence and later the Constitution, that the society could strive to live up to. The words, "All men are created equal" was actually a poison pill they put in that they knew future generations would have to deal with.

No, the basic principles of right and wrong do not change, what can change are the current laws that seek to best fit those principles to the modern world. So when Obama says he will have the most transparent and ethical administration ever, but then does the exact opposite, we as Americans need to call him out on it. This isn't just about Obama, it's about all of our elected officials. It's time to be principled Americans first; that's the only way we'll be able to judge whether our representatives are truly representing us.

 

[CX880]

As much as it would have been painful to watch McCain as pres, one thing's for sure, Obama is not going to help end this recession any sooner. I don't know of a lot of poor people that drive the economy. I just hope that this pick wasn't a mistake, as so many presidents and leaders tend to be when people choose based on feelings. I'm sure Stalin ran based on change and the feeling of the people as well... The good thing is that obama only has a couple of years vs 50.

,

 

[JustaNumber]

As much as it would have been painful to watch McCain as pres, one thing's for sure, Obama is not going to help end this recession any sooner. I don't know of a lot of poor people that drive the economy.

Fully agreed. Obama is not doing anything to aid or promote small business, the driver of our economy. To tie this all back to aviation (sorry for the thread drift), all the liberal attacks on both big business spending (as in, travel for lots of businessmen to resorts) and private jet usage, mean death to the piloting profession. Every business in America is now afraid they will come under attack if they host a seminar somewhere. I guarantee that this will cause a significant reduction in business travel, which will lead to more furloughs. After you get furloughed, think you could get a corporate jet job for a while? Not a chance, as the same companies are selling their jets as fast as you can say Bawney Fwank.

I know that politics seem kind of boring for many people, but who you vote for (and why) can make a tremendous difference in your life. It's time to start paying attention!