How does crude falling change the game, i.e. furloughs?

[magrs]

With all the recent fuel surcharges and fare increases, what are the chances the big boys are actually making money now?

If the surcharges were predicated on $150 fuel, with petrol at $114 and change, the majors must be seeing a HUGE bump in the bottom line.

What says you?

 

[Max Powers]

I says you need to go back to school my man.......

Those surcharges and fare increases were predicated on fuel between 70-110....the airlines had no plan for fuel at 147 per barrel hence the reason for the need to "get cash" and hunker down. With fuel at the 110-90 dollar range we will survive but with a reduction in capacity which is coming.

Sorry I'm a realist

 

[magrs]

The fuel surcharges were just implemented last week!

Oil was at $147 and Northwest started a fare increase. If you go back to January 1st of this year, oil just traded at $100 a brl. It is now sitting at $115!

The airlines have implemented 15 fuel surcharges since then , each averaging $10 per segment. My math says $150 per segment minimum.

Suffice it to say, the majors are making a very handsome sum on all these surcharges PLUS the 242% increase in fares from this date last year. I'm no mathmetician, but I'd say the majors are now making quite the profit. With AMR/USAir/CAL all hedged about $98/brl, these next few weeks could prove to be extremely beneficial if oil continues to decline.

Max, have some facts before posting your crap!

 

[Saabslime]

The only way furloughes will be adjusted is if one of the carriers who plan these big capacity cuts blinks and revises those cuts lower. Then all the others will trip over themselves revising their cuts in the name of maintaining market-share.

My guess is with oil swinging as wildly as it has been, nobody's revising anything until we get some stability back in the market. With oil a ways off it's high and hurricane season right around the corner there's plenty of cusion for the speculators to drive prices right back up again. In a nutshell.......we're still getting furloughed.

 

[General Lee]

I think it could be a game changer if oil falls to about $100 a barrel. We were told that we had a plan for oil at $200 a barrel (included a lot of cuts), and one for $100 a barrel (maybe keeping some airplanes longer or not parking some). Regardless, I hope RJs are parked anyway. (especially 37 and 50 seaters)

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[WSurf]

There's actually a plan in place if oil hits $200 a barrel? Wow, I like to see those plans!

 

[Yuppyguppy]

I'm waitn for oil under 100 before I say anything...if and when it happens

 

[General Lee]

There's actually a plan in place if oil hits $200 a barrel? Wow, I like to see those plans!

The $200 a barrel plan was to buy Piedmont, ditch every RJ an MD88, and place those Dash-8s on hourly flights from Atlanta to Hilton Head and LaGuardia. The LaGuardia flights would have 3 stews, 2 meals, and would allow and encourage smoking.....(pilots too)


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Way2Broke]

The $200 a barrel plan was to buy Piedmont, ditch every RJ an MD88, and place those Dash-8s on hourly flights from Atlanta to Hilton Head and LaGuardia. The LaGuardia flights would have 3 stews, 2 meals, and would allow and encourage smoking.....(pilots too)


Bye Bye--General Lee

I hate to admit it but that was funny.

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

Flip a coin.

Heads, oil goes to $100, airlines scrape by with the same lame service and nickle and dime charges.

Tails, oil goes to $200 and half of the U.S. airlines tank.

Either way, it'll still be a screwed up industry.

No one can predict what will happen, not pilots, management, or the 'professionals' on Wall St.

CE