Diesel,
Your number may be close. Accoding to some people in the puzzle palace, they have the number at 240 next year. How they came to that number is how old the guys are, how they have their vactions placed. And number of sick days in the bank, and how much they have in been stocking away in their 401k.
The thinking is that the guys will take the bonus. Vactions Jan, Feb, March, with sick days used to keep from going on the road, then when they run out of sick time and vaction and the thought of a 4am show in TEB is too much to deal with, they will give notice. The person I spoke with says a spike in Jan and a spike in April. Now this comes out of the puzzle palace so take it for what it worth. I personally know 10 guys who are gone next year.
Woo Hoo! Might not be more than 3 years to upgrade.