Hiring Best Guess

[fly4unclesam]

I realize nobody can predict what the industry is going to look like even a month from now but just looking for best guesses for hiring in 2012 when Age 65 finally catches up. This happens to coincide with my military retirement and I am just wondering if you guys think there will be any new hiring by then?

Thanks

 

[JerryLundegaard]

That will depend largely on the economy, and that's a real wild card right now. The age 65 thing will help, but it won't create a mega-hiring trend on it's own.

A lot of you military folks are re-upping right now with bonuses with the industry as it is, is that an option for you?

 

[Tanker Clown]

SWA will start empting the pool in late 2012 or early 2013. By then the retirements will be starting and the economy may be past the second dip of the recession. At least that's what my buddy is saying the folks at HQ are saying.

 

[AlbieF15]

About 400 currently over 60 at FDX. Don't know about UPS. New duty time restrictions might put pressure of some of the supplementals and regionals to hire a few more folks.

I'm not too up to date on DAL, but since they had so many retire before they hit BK I think they are still a "young" airline. The NW section, however, and CAL both have a lot of guys approaching that new retirement age.

You need to have a backup, and a backup to the backup...but I think your timing might actually be pretty good.

Good luck...we'll all be watching the industry right there with you...

 

[fly4unclesam]

Jerry,

Staying past 20 is an option for me...that's the good news. The bad news is I think I will be looking at a non-flying assignment. I am fortunate that I can stay flying until 20 but not sure after that.

 

[fly4unclesam]

Albie,

Thanks for the insight. Now I have to just figure out what that backup will be. Unless it is a flying gig, I might as well stay in the AF and add some years to my pension. Maybe I will luck out and be able to stay in the cockpit. Hard to say.

 

[JerryLundegaard]

Jerry,

Staying past 20 is an option for me...that's the good news. The bad news is I think I will be looking at a non-flying assignment. I am fortunate that I can stay flying until 20 but not sure after that.

Keep in mind QOL issues, as things are not what they used to be, even with the majors. It is a tough life, hard on families, and the compensation for that sacrifice is minimal.

 

[IAHERJ]

I think you are in a great position. Your timing in relation to retirements at the majors and hiring will most likely be favorable.

 

[AlbieF15]

I will be the first to say that the airline career I envisioned twenty years ago is very different today. I will also say that there are still some pretty good jobs out there. Understanding you won't be a captain at a UPS/FDX/SWA/Delta for 10-15 years, you can still make a cost/benefit analysis on what a career will be worth to you when the time comes to retire.

With a retirement check in one hand, an airline check in another...and then perhaps a job doing something else you will be working hard but should have a pretty solid financial footing. Investigate working part time for Boeing, Lockheed Martin, SAIC, CTI, or a host of other firms that do DOD work. Not everyone is looking for part time help, but sometimes some of them are. If you ever had a goal of running a side business, opening a subway franchise, etc there are some jobs (UPS/FDX) that still offer enough days off a month to pursue multiple jobs. Now--nothing says you can't kick up your feet and enjoy your retirement and time off...you earned it...but right now there are guys furloughed at Airtran, CAL, UAL, AA, and a host of other places. Even the "solid" companies like FedEX, SWA, and UPS have had to deal with a slowing economy. Whether its a reduced pay guarantee like at FedEx, looming furloughs at UPS, or less open time and extra flying at SWA, each company has some pilots that are feeling pinched (or in the case of UPS...crushed...)

I think the lesson in this is consider any pay from your airline until you are about 85% seniority a bonus, and you better have a few back up plans. Now--when things do work at airlines...it is a job that has incredible perks. I love the job (obviously), but I also had the ANG and a side business to back up my first few years in the business. In a perfect world, you "should" be able to go to an airline and not have to worry about taking care of your family. However, in a perfect world we wouldn't have guys with bombs in their underwear and we wouldn't be using tax dollars to save banks and auto companies that hit the skids. I'm not passing judgement, and I try not to become cynical or bitter. However, the lesson is our industry suffers violent swings in fortune and tends to be very reactionary, so if you want to enjoy the good parts (and there are many) then you best have a plan to weather the bad parts.

There are good trends on the horizon. The last few contracts (HAL, Alaska) at majors have seen some gains. New flighttime rules will make the regionals and some supplementals have better and safer work rules, requiring more pilots. Pilot mills won't go away, but the requirement for 1500 and an ATP will likely put upward pressure on requirements to enter the business, hopefully creating an upward pressure on wages across the board. And yes...we have taken the age 60-65 change on the chin but the outflow valve at airlines will soon be open again and some retirements will take place.

The bad things facing us are out there too. First, a weak economy is the main concern. People need jobs to take business trips and vacations, and we need more of them. In some sections, there is a trend of consolidation in the industry. I have no idea if CAL/UAL will happen, or if AA will join with US Air, but mergers rarely mean "more new jobs". FedEx is going from 3 pilot planes (DC-10..now gone..and 727) to 2 pilot planes, and is getting more and more efficient with the use of the 777 on international trips. If they ever get a European domicile and expand the Asia domicile it is possible they could cover their system without adding many more pilots. SWA is a mature company now, and doesn't have nearly as many new city pairs to try out as they did 10 years ago. Jetblue is growing very carefully, but they won't have many retirements for years. All of this could change in a heartbeat, but in the macro I don't see a lot of rapid advancement for anyone in our industry for a while.

Of course--everything I have pontificated on could be 100 percent wrong. I've been wrong before and will again...

But...for the last 13 months I've bounced around the world on an MD11 for FDX, and I can say that there isn't a single job (okay...rock star, porn star, beer taster...) that would be as satisfying to me. It is a blessing to go to a job you enjoy, and I am willing to bet that with a little foresight and strategic planning, if you want to do this kind of work there will be some room for you when the time comes. You may not be a captain in 5 years, and you need to keep your eyes on the company health...but it is still a wonderful way to making a living when it works out.

 

[DDAY]

I did 23 with navy and recently got hired by Delta. Get out as soon as you can after 20. Mil retirement isn't enough (50K) to live off, and a few more years doesn't make a worthwile difference to your pay.

For Just need your last job to keep proficient, try training command bases. Start getting the lists of all your comrades who went airlines and email them. These lists are easy to find at training command squadrons, We were all helped in this way so we expect to return the favor.
The 65 rule is a bonus that gives you another 20 year career.
Overall, a guaranteed pension with good medical makes airlines more of a hobby than a job. You will love it.

 

[Whine Lover]

" Mil retirement isn't enough (50K) to live off..."


Tell that to the average American family of 4 that lives just fine on the median household income of approx. $50k / year.

Who ARE these people that can't make it on 50 Grand? ( Rhetorical question.)



YKMKR

 

[StopNTSing]

Overall, a guaranteed pension with good medical makes airlines more of a hobby than a job. You will love it.

I love my military bros, but more of that mindset is not what is needed if we are ever to restore this profession! How about a little reality check: You fly a very complex aircraft with a staggering potential liability. This is NOT a hobby! It is a highly-skilled profession for which you are at present woefully under-compensated. Please raise your expectations and vote accordingly when your next contract becomes amendable.

 

[QCappy]

I realize nobody can predict what the industry is going to look like even a month from now but just looking for best guesses for hiring in 2012 when Age 65 finally catches up. This happens to coincide with my military retirement and I am just wondering if you guys think there will be any new hiring by then?

Thanks

The age 65 doesn't start until December 2012, so really the movement begins in 2013. There may be some lag depending on the remaining number of furloughees at any respective airline at that time too.

 

[gearup5]

by then the old guys will be fighting to get age 65 moved to 70.....it never ends

 

[motch]

Not every pilot is going to stay till 65...
Hell, I've seen alot of guys at my job leave before 60, and also some at 62.
Just flew with a guy who is 50 and isn't gonna stay till 65, or even 60 for that matter.

And the reason you won't see 70 is two-fold.
Honestly, not many guys will be able to pass a 'legit' medical if they raised the age again. Because I would imagine that they would have higher medical standards than what they do now.

If they raised it over 65, expect to see rules about crew compliment, crew duty and so on for cockpits with someone over 65.
Already the over 60 cockpit rules are making some airlines look at how they schedule their crews.

Anyone know how many 'over 60' First Officers there are out there at the Majors?

 

[SuperFLUF]

" Mil retirement isn't enough (50K) to live off..."


Tell that to the average American family of 4 that lives just fine on the median household income of approx. $50k / year.

Who ARE these people that can't make it on 50 Grand? ( Rhetorical question.)



YKMKR

He can tell it to the average government employee who gets over $70K per year.

 

[AlbieF15]

" Mil retirement isn't enough (50K) to live off..."


Tell that to the average American family of 4 that lives just fine on the median household income of approx. $50k / year.

Who ARE these people that can't make it on 50 Grand? ( Rhetorical question.)



YKMKR

Whine,

I never planned on being an average anything. I certainly didn't become an airline pilot to make 50k a year, and I will not apologize to those folks who make less than I do in other fields. All work is noble. I think everyone should be proud of what they do and accomplish in life. I just got done spending :45 with my 7 year old going over her first grade homework, and I can say without any reservations I could never be an elementary school teacher. I never wanted to be a doctor, or a lawyer, or a construction worker. However, I also won't be made to feel guilty because I make a good living as a pilot. A Vice Wing Commander once shared this comment to a senior non-pilot type who was complaining about pilot perks...."hey man...in my high school career day was open to everyone..."

50k isn't going to keep the standard of living a retired Maj, LTC, or above is used to living. That's good. We don't want 45 year olds with that much talent and experience sitting on the sidelines taking up checks for the rest of their lives. We want them out in the community--working--and making a difference in their communities. If you are content where you are--super. But the world moves forward because of people who strive to be all they can, and nobody should have to apologize for wanting more than an "average" exisitence.

 

[JOPILOT]

I'm not too up to date on DAL, but since they had so many retire before they hit BK I think they are still a "young" airline. The NW section, however, and CAL both have a lot of guys approaching that new retirement age.

Alb,
The NW section no longer exists...it is all one Delta List, and I would say we will be short pilots by 2011 unless we start closing bases and parking airplanes...which could happen. Most importantly don't listen to Tanker Clown, the only pool he knows anything about is his family gene pool that someone took a huge piss in, a few decades back.

 

[BrickTop]

Ok I will say this again........Retirement and job replacement are a fallacy at the Major Level. Major Airlines are only continuing to shrink and downsize their fleets. Jobs at the Major Level will not be a par for par replacement. The best scenario many should hope for is growth at the regional level as Mainline operators continue to grow shared risk operations and reduce largebody aircraft. With a severely depressed economy and virtual meetings taking a leap in popularity I would expect Air travel to remain at its current capacity. Capacity, not retirement is what determines job replacement during retirement surges. In short I think people are far to optimistic that there is a retirement wave to be seen that will offer movement for many stranded in the seniority lists. Remember Capacity "replacement" "AT THE MAJORS" is what will yield movement.

 

[Jet Wash]

I love my military bros, but more of that mindset is not what is needed if we are ever to restore this profession! How about a little reality check: You fly a very complex aircraft with a staggering potential liability. This is NOT a hobby! It is a highly-skilled profession for which you are at present woefully under-compensated. Please raise your expectations and vote accordingly when your next contract becomes amendable.

Well said.

 

[AlbieF15]

JOPilot,

No offense meant with the NW/DAL point. You guys did a stellar job of creating one list. My only point was that the pre-merger list probably had more over 50 guys from the red tails. Hope you guys keep the magic and keep everyone happy going forward--you have done a great job so far.

 

[fly4unclesam]

All,

Thanks for the advice so far. Hopefully the correct path will become clearer as time goes by.

Albie,

Why you are no longer flying the F-15 for the ANG? Do you know if ANG or AFRES units will look at retired AD guys? I love flying for the AF and would not mind continuing on a part-time basis if I had the option.

 

[Linedriver]

Whine,

I never planned on being an average anything. I certainly didn't become an airline pilot to make 50k a year, and I will not apologize to those folks who make less than I do in other fields. All work is noble. I think everyone should be proud of what they do and accomplish in life. I just got done spending :45 with my 7 year old going over her first grade homework, and I can say without any reservations I could never be an elementary school teacher. I never wanted to be a doctor, or a lawyer, or a construction worker. However, I also won't be made to feel guilty because I make a good living as a pilot. A Vice Wing Commander once shared this comment to a senior non-pilot type who was complaining about pilot perks...."hey man...in my high school career day was open to everyone..."

50k isn't going to keep the standard of living a retired Maj, LTC, or above is used to living. That's good. We don't want 45 year olds with that much talent and experience sitting on the sidelines taking up checks for the rest of their lives. We want them out in the community--working--and making a difference in their communities. If you are content where you are--super. But the world moves forward because of people who strive to be all they can, and nobody should have to apologize for wanting more than an "average" exisitence.

Very well said.. We all have choices to make in life and not making a choice, is a choice.

 

[AlbieF15]

Fly4unclesam,

I retired from the ANG in 2007 due after 20 years of flying and facing a second back surgery. I was also quite busy with a new farm purchase, a side business, and it seemed like a great time to walk away in one piece after a fantastic run. That said--it wasn't easy to quit, but it was the best time for me. Everyone gets a fini flight--but the kind where you KNOW its your last flight is always better than the alternative. Ironically in 2009 I requested to "unretire" to serve part time in a non-flying capacity. Paperwork is still in progress...I'm optimistic but still a "Mr" or "retired guy" for now.

Doing part time work after securing an active duty retirement is usually a losing game financially. You forfeit the portion of the retirement check when you work, so you are effectively giving up half your pay. A better option would be GS or DOD contracting. There are also some spots for civilians to fly. I dont' know about the C-17 world, but here at my old base we have civilians flying MU-2s and F-4s for contractors. I suspect there are similar positions in/around the airlift world. I also imagine some airlift expereince would be valuable as a contractor helping at Scott AFB or various Airlift Control units. Start snooping now so you have a clue what might be available.

 

[CrewDawg]

50k isn't going to keep the standard of living a retired Maj, LTC, or above is used to living. That's good. We don't want 45 year olds with that much talent and experience sitting on the sidelines taking up checks for the rest of their lives. We want them out in the community--working--and making a difference in their communities. If you are content where you are--super. But the world moves forward because of people who strive to be all they can, and nobody should have to apologize for wanting more than an "average" exisitence.

Or a 1LT for that matter (albeit w/ 9 years of service).

Very well said Albie. The world needs ditch diggers too! A position I once held...

 

[Superpilot92]

Ok I will say this again........Retirement and job replacement are a fallacy at the Major Level. Major Airlines are only continuing to shrink and downsize their fleets. Jobs at the Major Level will not be a par for par replacement. The best scenario many should hope for is growth at the regional level as Mainline operators continue to grow shared risk operations and reduce largebody aircraft. With a severely depressed economy and virtual meetings taking a leap in popularity I would expect Air travel to remain at its current capacity. Capacity, not retirement is what determines job replacement during retirement surges. In short I think people are far to optimistic that there is a retirement wave to be seen that will offer movement for many stranded in the seniority lists. Remember Capacity "replacement" "AT THE MAJORS" is what will yield movement.

The above is the rational of a regional lifer I heard it all the time that the "majors will all continue to shrink", Well let me ask this then, do you believe that the majors will continue to shrink till they're all gone? Do you think that the majors dont have a min level before they're no longer a viable company? Where's that point?

Truth is that SCOPE is a front burner issue now and the scope giveaways are over. Following 9/11 the airlines have been in shrink mode. For the most part the majors have shrunk to the lowest point and going forward leaves alot of room for growth as capacity is added back. Combine that with the scrutiny over regionals and RJ's, less pilots getting into flying, and retirements at the majors your going to see the next growth "boom" at the majors. Some X factors are further consolidation which could hinder some from hiring but the others are on the verge of hiring.

The pilots at the majors have seen the destruction that scope giveaways have done and most are adamant about not letting it happen anymore. When the retirements start in full force the majors will have a hard time keeping up with training and they'll be sucking pilots out of the regionals and i think that will further drive flying away from the regionals because the regionals definitely wont be able to keep up with the training because the regionals arent going to be able to attract the number of pilots they'll need at current state. More 50 seaters will be canned which will shrink the regionals next. At the end of the last hiring spurt the regionals were already having trouble finding qualified applicants. Mins were lowered and eagle was even paying to send guys to sim courses outside of their own training so that they'd have better chances of making it through training.

The next few years will get interesting. Retirements alone will cause movement and any growth on top of that is gravy. At worst case the economy tanks further and the retirements will just keep things at a minimum, status quo. we'll see

point is that the regionals arent going to be, "where its at"

ps. i think there will be consolidations in the regional industry in the next few years as well.

 

[QCappy]

All great points Superpilot92

 

[maxblast72]

point is that the regionals arent going to be, "where its at"

Regionals and legacies are both places that aren't going to be "where its at". As we enter a deflationary period (and lower airfares) over the next 2 years, the LCCs are going to continue to grab marketshare. Traditional high yielding routes are not going to recover with unemployment above 8 or 9% and companies still watching their travel budgets closely. During deflationary times, efficient companies do much better than older, inefficient, less flexible companies (like the legacies). Look for some more consolidation amongst the legacies. Legacy mergers typically follow the 1 + 1 = 1.5 when all the fat is trimmed out. Time will tell if the Delta merger can buck this trend and have 1 + 1 = more than 2.

 

[Superpilot92]

Regionals and legacies are both places that aren't going to be "where its at". As we enter a deflationary period (and lower airfares) over the next 2 years, the LCCs are going to continue to grab marketshare. Traditional high yielding routes are not going to recover with unemployment above 8 or 9% and companies still watching their travel budgets closely. During deflationary times, efficient companies do much better than older, inefficient, less flexible companies (like the legacies). Look for some more consolidation amongst the legacies. Legacy mergers typically follow the 1 + 1 = 1.5 when all the fat is trimmed out. Time will tell if the Delta merger can buck this trend and have 1 + 1 = more than 2.

That may have been true in the past but the LCC's arent really that much cheaper anymore. Delta for example is getting its costs in line and most of the merger related costs have been accounted for so far. Going forward Delta should be able to compete much better going forward because the merger has by far turned out much better than any merger in the past.

USAIR and UAL are going to have to pull things together better in order to stay competitive. I think that CAL and UAL may pull the trigger on getting hitched later this year. I'm not sure what USAIR is going to do, with them still running separate ops and nothing really looking up over there its tough to see them staying competitive.

SWA and Airtan have rising costs and since 9/11 they've been able to snag alot of marketshare but that explosive growth has tapered off.

With all that said, the industry consolidation is on its way. As soon as we start showing profits as a merged carrier here at DAL i think the others will start jumping in the pool.

 

[waveflyer]

He can tell it to the average government employee who gets over $70K per year.

where does this number come from? I just flew with a guy who quoted this to me? and he swore it as truth.

Then picked up a mark levin book he was super excited about.

check your sources superstar.

Albie- as always - very well said