Hiring Best Guess

[AlbieF15]

JOPilot,

No offense meant with the NW/DAL point. You guys did a stellar job of creating one list. My only point was that the pre-merger list probably had more over 50 guys from the red tails. Hope you guys keep the magic and keep everyone happy going forward--you have done a great job so far.

 

[fly4unclesam]

All,

Thanks for the advice so far. Hopefully the correct path will become clearer as time goes by.

Albie,

Why you are no longer flying the F-15 for the ANG? Do you know if ANG or AFRES units will look at retired AD guys? I love flying for the AF and would not mind continuing on a part-time basis if I had the option.

 

[Linedriver]

Whine,

I never planned on being an average anything. I certainly didn't become an airline pilot to make 50k a year, and I will not apologize to those folks who make less than I do in other fields. All work is noble. I think everyone should be proud of what they do and accomplish in life. I just got done spending :45 with my 7 year old going over her first grade homework, and I can say without any reservations I could never be an elementary school teacher. I never wanted to be a doctor, or a lawyer, or a construction worker. However, I also won't be made to feel guilty because I make a good living as a pilot. A Vice Wing Commander once shared this comment to a senior non-pilot type who was complaining about pilot perks...."hey man...in my high school career day was open to everyone..."

50k isn't going to keep the standard of living a retired Maj, LTC, or above is used to living. That's good. We don't want 45 year olds with that much talent and experience sitting on the sidelines taking up checks for the rest of their lives. We want them out in the community--working--and making a difference in their communities. If you are content where you are--super. But the world moves forward because of people who strive to be all they can, and nobody should have to apologize for wanting more than an "average" exisitence.

Very well said.. We all have choices to make in life and not making a choice, is a choice.

 

[AlbieF15]

Fly4unclesam,

I retired from the ANG in 2007 due after 20 years of flying and facing a second back surgery. I was also quite busy with a new farm purchase, a side business, and it seemed like a great time to walk away in one piece after a fantastic run. That said--it wasn't easy to quit, but it was the best time for me. Everyone gets a fini flight--but the kind where you KNOW its your last flight is always better than the alternative. Ironically in 2009 I requested to "unretire" to serve part time in a non-flying capacity. Paperwork is still in progress...I'm optimistic but still a "Mr" or "retired guy" for now.

Doing part time work after securing an active duty retirement is usually a losing game financially. You forfeit the portion of the retirement check when you work, so you are effectively giving up half your pay. A better option would be GS or DOD contracting. There are also some spots for civilians to fly. I dont' know about the C-17 world, but here at my old base we have civilians flying MU-2s and F-4s for contractors. I suspect there are similar positions in/around the airlift world. I also imagine some airlift expereince would be valuable as a contractor helping at Scott AFB or various Airlift Control units. Start snooping now so you have a clue what might be available.

 

[CrewDawg]

50k isn't going to keep the standard of living a retired Maj, LTC, or above is used to living. That's good. We don't want 45 year olds with that much talent and experience sitting on the sidelines taking up checks for the rest of their lives. We want them out in the community--working--and making a difference in their communities. If you are content where you are--super. But the world moves forward because of people who strive to be all they can, and nobody should have to apologize for wanting more than an "average" exisitence.

Or a 1LT for that matter (albeit w/ 9 years of service).

Very well said Albie. The world needs ditch diggers too! A position I once held...

 

[Superpilot92]

Ok I will say this again........Retirement and job replacement are a fallacy at the Major Level. Major Airlines are only continuing to shrink and downsize their fleets. Jobs at the Major Level will not be a par for par replacement. The best scenario many should hope for is growth at the regional level as Mainline operators continue to grow shared risk operations and reduce largebody aircraft. With a severely depressed economy and virtual meetings taking a leap in popularity I would expect Air travel to remain at its current capacity. Capacity, not retirement is what determines job replacement during retirement surges. In short I think people are far to optimistic that there is a retirement wave to be seen that will offer movement for many stranded in the seniority lists. Remember Capacity "replacement" "AT THE MAJORS" is what will yield movement.

The above is the rational of a regional lifer I heard it all the time that the "majors will all continue to shrink", Well let me ask this then, do you believe that the majors will continue to shrink till they're all gone? Do you think that the majors dont have a min level before they're no longer a viable company? Where's that point?

Truth is that SCOPE is a front burner issue now and the scope giveaways are over. Following 9/11 the airlines have been in shrink mode. For the most part the majors have shrunk to the lowest point and going forward leaves alot of room for growth as capacity is added back. Combine that with the scrutiny over regionals and RJ's, less pilots getting into flying, and retirements at the majors your going to see the next growth "boom" at the majors. Some X factors are further consolidation which could hinder some from hiring but the others are on the verge of hiring.

The pilots at the majors have seen the destruction that scope giveaways have done and most are adamant about not letting it happen anymore. When the retirements start in full force the majors will have a hard time keeping up with training and they'll be sucking pilots out of the regionals and i think that will further drive flying away from the regionals because the regionals definitely wont be able to keep up with the training because the regionals arent going to be able to attract the number of pilots they'll need at current state. More 50 seaters will be canned which will shrink the regionals next. At the end of the last hiring spurt the regionals were already having trouble finding qualified applicants. Mins were lowered and eagle was even paying to send guys to sim courses outside of their own training so that they'd have better chances of making it through training.

The next few years will get interesting. Retirements alone will cause movement and any growth on top of that is gravy. At worst case the economy tanks further and the retirements will just keep things at a minimum, status quo. we'll see

point is that the regionals arent going to be, "where its at"

ps. i think there will be consolidations in the regional industry in the next few years as well.

 

[QCappy]

All great points Superpilot92

 

[maxblast72]

point is that the regionals arent going to be, "where its at"

Regionals and legacies are both places that aren't going to be "where its at". As we enter a deflationary period (and lower airfares) over the next 2 years, the LCCs are going to continue to grab marketshare. Traditional high yielding routes are not going to recover with unemployment above 8 or 9% and companies still watching their travel budgets closely. During deflationary times, efficient companies do much better than older, inefficient, less flexible companies (like the legacies). Look for some more consolidation amongst the legacies. Legacy mergers typically follow the 1 + 1 = 1.5 when all the fat is trimmed out. Time will tell if the Delta merger can buck this trend and have 1 + 1 = more than 2.

 

[Superpilot92]

Regionals and legacies are both places that aren't going to be "where its at". As we enter a deflationary period (and lower airfares) over the next 2 years, the LCCs are going to continue to grab marketshare. Traditional high yielding routes are not going to recover with unemployment above 8 or 9% and companies still watching their travel budgets closely. During deflationary times, efficient companies do much better than older, inefficient, less flexible companies (like the legacies). Look for some more consolidation amongst the legacies. Legacy mergers typically follow the 1 + 1 = 1.5 when all the fat is trimmed out. Time will tell if the Delta merger can buck this trend and have 1 + 1 = more than 2.

That may have been true in the past but the LCC's arent really that much cheaper anymore. Delta for example is getting its costs in line and most of the merger related costs have been accounted for so far. Going forward Delta should be able to compete much better going forward because the merger has by far turned out much better than any merger in the past.

USAIR and UAL are going to have to pull things together better in order to stay competitive. I think that CAL and UAL may pull the trigger on getting hitched later this year. I'm not sure what USAIR is going to do, with them still running separate ops and nothing really looking up over there its tough to see them staying competitive.

SWA and Airtan have rising costs and since 9/11 they've been able to snag alot of marketshare but that explosive growth has tapered off.

With all that said, the industry consolidation is on its way. As soon as we start showing profits as a merged carrier here at DAL i think the others will start jumping in the pool.

 

[waveflyer]

He can tell it to the average government employee who gets over $70K per year.

where does this number come from? I just flew with a guy who quoted this to me? and he swore it as truth.

Then picked up a mark levin book he was super excited about.

check your sources superstar.

Albie- as always - very well said

 

[maxblast72]

That may have been true in the past but the LCC's arent really that much cheaper anymore. Delta for example is getting its costs in line and most of the merger related costs have been accounted for so far. Going forward Delta should be able to compete much better going forward because the merger has by far turned out much better than any merger in the past.

I believe you are right when you say Delta is going to be able to compete better going forward. Out of the big 3, Delta appears to be in the best shape.

But don't kid yourself, the big 3 LCCs have still have a huge cost advantage over the legacies. I know it is tough to compare apples and oranges (different size airplanes and different stage lengths), but this chart shows the non-fuel CASM for the 8 largest airlines that compete in the domestic lower 48 market adjusted to a 738 mile stage length.

http://investor.airtran.com/phoenix...vPXRlbmsmaXBhZ2U9NjczNjMzMCZkb2M9MiZudW09Ng==

As you can see, Delta is doing a great job compared with the legacies (pretty much tied for lowest costs with USAirways who has gone through two bankruptcies) but still is much higher than Airtran, Southwest, and Jetblue.

You are also correct on another point. The days of double digit percentage LCC growth are long gone. As the domestic market has matured and cheap airplane financing deals are long gone as credit markets have tightened, growth is going to be much smaller. As Gary Kelly said in the 4th quarter conference call a month ago, "Flat is the new up."

 

[fastback]

where does this number come from? I just flew with a guy who quoted this to me? and he swore it as truth.

Then picked up a mark levin book he was super excited about.

check your sources superstar.

Albie- as always - very well said

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20091211/1afedpay11_st.art.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Here is the relevant quote from the article:

"The growth in six-figure salaries has pushed the average federal worker's pay to $71,206, compared with $40,331 in the private sector."

Have a blissful day.

 

[jonjuan]

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20091211/1afedpay11_st.art.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Here is the relevant quote from the article:

"The growth in six-figure salaries has pushed the average federal worker's pay to $71,206, compared with $40,331 in the private sector."

Have a blissful day.

Once again, wave is owned.

 

[waveflyer]

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20091211/1afedpay11_st.art.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Here is the relevant quote from the article:

"The growth in six-figure salaries has pushed the average federal worker's pay to $71,206, compared with $40,331 in the private sector."

Have a blissful day.

Thank you. I have indeed been owned. And blissed. I would still like to know what comprises the private sector figure. What is interesting to me is how that average salary compares to regional FO's...?

 

[Smarta$$]

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20091211/1afedpay11_st.art.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Here is the relevant quote from the article:

"The growth in six-figure salaries has pushed the average federal worker's pay to $71,206, compared with $40,331 in the private sector."

Have a blissful day.

Without getting into a left-right debate, does the private sector numbers include part time workers? Besides that, Federal workers pay over the last several decades has most likely kept pace with inflation. Private sector employees have fallen behind inflation, even though private sector executives pay has wildly outpaced inflation.

So, a few questions.

Are Federal employees over paid, or due to inflationary pay cuts over time, are private sector employees underpaid?

Inflation is probably the most objective comparison.

If you think that private sector employees are not under paid, why have executives salaries wildly outpaced inflation at the same time they forced pay cuts on their employees?

And is it reasonable to expect the average Federal employee be paid more than the average burger king bun flipper? Or a hotel bed changer? Or the kid who makes your starbucks coffee? Or the girl who rings you up at target? The girl who rings the cash register at the GAP?

Which job requires more qualifications and experience, the cash register girl at Old Navy, or an inspector for FDA or an ATF agent or an IRS investigator (even if you don't like them)?

It is an apples and oranges comparison. Which government job is comparable to Taco Bell specialist or cash register queen?

 

[bizicmo]

The above is the rational of a regional lifer I heard it all the time that the "majors will all continue to shrink", Well let me ask this then, do you believe that the majors will continue to shrink till they're all gone? Do you think that the majors dont have a min level before they're no longer a viable company? Where's that point?

Truth is that SCOPE is a front burner issue now and the scope giveaways are over. Following 9/11 the airlines have been in shrink mode. For the most part the majors have shrunk to the lowest point and going forward leaves alot of room for growth as capacity is added back. Combine that with the scrutiny over regionals and RJ's, less pilots getting into flying, and retirements at the majors your going to see the next growth "boom" at the majors. Some X factors are further consolidation which could hinder some from hiring but the others are on the verge of hiring.

The pilots at the majors have seen the destruction that scope giveaways have done and most are adamant about not letting it happen anymore. When the retirements start in full force the majors will have a hard time keeping up with training and they'll be sucking pilots out of the regionals and i think that will further drive flying away from the regionals because the regionals definitely wont be able to keep up with the training because the regionals arent going to be able to attract the number of pilots they'll need at current state. More 50 seaters will be canned which will shrink the regionals next. At the end of the last hiring spurt the regionals were already having trouble finding qualified applicants. Mins were lowered and eagle was even paying to send guys to sim courses outside of their own training so that they'd have better chances of making it through training.

The next few years will get interesting. Retirements alone will cause movement and any growth on top of that is gravy. At worst case the economy tanks further and the retirements will just keep things at a minimum, status quo. we'll see

point is that the regionals arent going to be, "where its at"

ps. i think there will be consolidations in the regional industry in the next few years as well.

the majors will continue to shrink. There is no min level in a virtual airline. Airlines are already being rebranded as being a part of Star, Skyteam or Oneworld. flying will be moved from airline to airline based on cost and if one airline's cost is too high it will be shrunk to nothing. What does star or skyteam or oneworld care the flying has already be shifted to another subcarrier. 50 seater outsourcing was signed off on years ago not full anticipating what the outcome would be, and now the JV sections are being done the same way. in addition to that scope, will be relax on the low end also. "regional companies" now have 100 seaters on order, i know they are a long way off but they do have orders. the plane manufactures are putting out position papers that conclude with the outsourcing of the 100 seaters. and most importantly big biz has more money and more political influence, in an enviroment that already favors big biz over labor. Now i don't have a time frame on this, and i don't think this will happen by the end of the year but it is going this direction.

 

[Paul R. Smith]

the majors will continue to shrink. There is no min level in a virtual airline. Airlines are already being rebranded as being a part of Star, Skyteam or Oneworld. flying will be moved from airline to airline based on cost and if one airline's cost is too high it will be shrunk to nothing. What does star or skyteam or oneworld care the flying has already be shifted to another subcarrier. 50 seater outsourcing was signed off on years ago not full anticipating what the outcome would be, and now the JV sections are being done the same way. in addition to that scope, will be relax on the low end also. "regional companies" now have 100 seaters on order, i know they are a long way off but they do have orders. the plane manufactures are putting out position papers that conclude with the outsourcing of the 100 seaters. and most importantly big biz has more money and more political influence, in an enviroment that already favors big biz over labor. Now i don't have a time frame on this, and i don't think this will happen by the end of the year but it is going this direction.

Have you ever tried black box wine? Its pretty decent.

 

[Whine Lover]

Sorry Paul...I believe he is closer to reality than your comment might indicate.

In 1986, I made the remark to a few of my compadres that " with the advent of the Regional Jet, the Regionals will become the Majors and the Majors will become something completely different."

I was told.. "You are stoned". (Which, if I remember correctly, I was.)

SO...here we are.

- American Eagle? Technically a Major.

- UsAirways? An abortion of it's former self.

- TWA, Pan AM, Eastern? GONE.

- Frontier/Midwest = Republic. HUH!? WTFO?

- American, United, Continental? Shadows of their former selves.

- SWA? Unthinkable 20 years ago...But today, Top of the Heap? ( For now.)

The Industry is shrinking.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/022410dnbuslostairjobs.3c35885.html


Most airlines are at approx. 60% of their former workforce/size, etc.

The Industry forecast is for much of the same..." Cloudy, with a chance of sunshine."

It's just the way it is...And unfortunately, will probably be.

NO, the "Sky is not falling".

But then again, "Happy Days are not here again." And probably never will be.

Industries evolve.

The American steel, auto, and (now) airline industries will never be the same as "The Good Old Days"....


YKMKR

 

[fastback]

Without getting into a left-right debate, does the private sector numbers include part time workers? Besides that, Federal workers pay over the last several decades has most likely kept pace with inflation. Private sector employees have fallen behind inflation, even though private sector executives pay has wildly outpaced inflation.

So, a few questions.

Are Federal employees over paid, or due to inflationary pay cuts over time, are private sector employees underpaid?

Inflation is probably the most objective comparison.

If you think that private sector employees are not under paid, why have executives salaries wildly outpaced inflation at the same time they forced pay cuts on their employees?

And is it reasonable to expect the average Federal employee be paid more than the average burger king bun flipper? Or a hotel bed changer? Or the kid who makes your starbucks coffee? Or the girl who rings you up at target? The girl who rings the cash register at the GAP?

Which job requires more qualifications and experience, the cash register girl at Old Navy, or an inspector for FDA or an ATF agent or an IRS investigator (even if you don't like them)?

It is an apples and oranges comparison. Which government job is comparable to Taco Bell specialist or cash register queen?

Wave asked for a source, I posted a source. You're probably right about different pay dynamics in the public and private sectors. The private sector includes many lower-paid workers and some higher-paid professionals. I didn't see any analysis on the breakdowns. All I did was use Google for about 8 seconds.

 

[waveflyer]

And it was a well done pwn'd - I took my lick well enough I hope.
But - has gannett gotten any better?- I studied SWA in 3 different colleges in case studies about how to run a business- very different schools- the only theme running between those colleges- was Gannett (who owns USAToday) had 4 case studies at the 3 colleges about how NOT to run an organization. That doesn't mean the info is inaccurate however-and I stand by my comment that I was owned(!)