Hiring Best Guess

[AlbieF15]

JOPilot,

No offense meant with the NW/DAL point. You guys did a stellar job of creating one list. My only point was that the pre-merger list probably had more over 50 guys from the red tails. Hope you guys keep the magic and keep everyone happy going forward--you have done a great job so far.

 

[fly4unclesam]

All,

Thanks for the advice so far. Hopefully the correct path will become clearer as time goes by.

Albie,

Why you are no longer flying the F-15 for the ANG? Do you know if ANG or AFRES units will look at retired AD guys? I love flying for the AF and would not mind continuing on a part-time basis if I had the option.

 

[Linedriver]

Whine,

I never planned on being an average anything. I certainly didn't become an airline pilot to make 50k a year, and I will not apologize to those folks who make less than I do in other fields. All work is noble. I think everyone should be proud of what they do and accomplish in life. I just got done spending :45 with my 7 year old going over her first grade homework, and I can say without any reservations I could never be an elementary school teacher. I never wanted to be a doctor, or a lawyer, or a construction worker. However, I also won't be made to feel guilty because I make a good living as a pilot. A Vice Wing Commander once shared this comment to a senior non-pilot type who was complaining about pilot perks...."hey man...in my high school career day was open to everyone..."

50k isn't going to keep the standard of living a retired Maj, LTC, or above is used to living. That's good. We don't want 45 year olds with that much talent and experience sitting on the sidelines taking up checks for the rest of their lives. We want them out in the community--working--and making a difference in their communities. If you are content where you are--super. But the world moves forward because of people who strive to be all they can, and nobody should have to apologize for wanting more than an "average" exisitence.

Very well said.. We all have choices to make in life and not making a choice, is a choice.

 

[AlbieF15]

Fly4unclesam,

I retired from the ANG in 2007 due after 20 years of flying and facing a second back surgery. I was also quite busy with a new farm purchase, a side business, and it seemed like a great time to walk away in one piece after a fantastic run. That said--it wasn't easy to quit, but it was the best time for me. Everyone gets a fini flight--but the kind where you KNOW its your last flight is always better than the alternative. Ironically in 2009 I requested to "unretire" to serve part time in a non-flying capacity. Paperwork is still in progress...I'm optimistic but still a "Mr" or "retired guy" for now.

Doing part time work after securing an active duty retirement is usually a losing game financially. You forfeit the portion of the retirement check when you work, so you are effectively giving up half your pay. A better option would be GS or DOD contracting. There are also some spots for civilians to fly. I dont' know about the C-17 world, but here at my old base we have civilians flying MU-2s and F-4s for contractors. I suspect there are similar positions in/around the airlift world. I also imagine some airlift expereince would be valuable as a contractor helping at Scott AFB or various Airlift Control units. Start snooping now so you have a clue what might be available.

 

[CrewDawg]

50k isn't going to keep the standard of living a retired Maj, LTC, or above is used to living. That's good. We don't want 45 year olds with that much talent and experience sitting on the sidelines taking up checks for the rest of their lives. We want them out in the community--working--and making a difference in their communities. If you are content where you are--super. But the world moves forward because of people who strive to be all they can, and nobody should have to apologize for wanting more than an "average" exisitence.

Or a 1LT for that matter (albeit w/ 9 years of service).

Very well said Albie. The world needs ditch diggers too! A position I once held...

 

[Superpilot92]

Ok I will say this again........Retirement and job replacement are a fallacy at the Major Level. Major Airlines are only continuing to shrink and downsize their fleets. Jobs at the Major Level will not be a par for par replacement. The best scenario many should hope for is growth at the regional level as Mainline operators continue to grow shared risk operations and reduce largebody aircraft. With a severely depressed economy and virtual meetings taking a leap in popularity I would expect Air travel to remain at its current capacity. Capacity, not retirement is what determines job replacement during retirement surges. In short I think people are far to optimistic that there is a retirement wave to be seen that will offer movement for many stranded in the seniority lists. Remember Capacity "replacement" "AT THE MAJORS" is what will yield movement.

The above is the rational of a regional lifer I heard it all the time that the "majors will all continue to shrink", Well let me ask this then, do you believe that the majors will continue to shrink till they're all gone? Do you think that the majors dont have a min level before they're no longer a viable company? Where's that point?

Truth is that SCOPE is a front burner issue now and the scope giveaways are over. Following 9/11 the airlines have been in shrink mode. For the most part the majors have shrunk to the lowest point and going forward leaves alot of room for growth as capacity is added back. Combine that with the scrutiny over regionals and RJ's, less pilots getting into flying, and retirements at the majors your going to see the next growth "boom" at the majors. Some X factors are further consolidation which could hinder some from hiring but the others are on the verge of hiring.

The pilots at the majors have seen the destruction that scope giveaways have done and most are adamant about not letting it happen anymore. When the retirements start in full force the majors will have a hard time keeping up with training and they'll be sucking pilots out of the regionals and i think that will further drive flying away from the regionals because the regionals definitely wont be able to keep up with the training because the regionals arent going to be able to attract the number of pilots they'll need at current state. More 50 seaters will be canned which will shrink the regionals next. At the end of the last hiring spurt the regionals were already having trouble finding qualified applicants. Mins were lowered and eagle was even paying to send guys to sim courses outside of their own training so that they'd have better chances of making it through training.

The next few years will get interesting. Retirements alone will cause movement and any growth on top of that is gravy. At worst case the economy tanks further and the retirements will just keep things at a minimum, status quo. we'll see

point is that the regionals arent going to be, "where its at"

ps. i think there will be consolidations in the regional industry in the next few years as well.

 

[QCappy]

All great points Superpilot92

 

[maxblast72]

point is that the regionals arent going to be, "where its at"

Regionals and legacies are both places that aren't going to be "where its at". As we enter a deflationary period (and lower airfares) over the next 2 years, the LCCs are going to continue to grab marketshare. Traditional high yielding routes are not going to recover with unemployment above 8 or 9% and companies still watching their travel budgets closely. During deflationary times, efficient companies do much better than older, inefficient, less flexible companies (like the legacies). Look for some more consolidation amongst the legacies. Legacy mergers typically follow the 1 + 1 = 1.5 when all the fat is trimmed out. Time will tell if the Delta merger can buck this trend and have 1 + 1 = more than 2.

 

[Superpilot92]

Regionals and legacies are both places that aren't going to be "where its at". As we enter a deflationary period (and lower airfares) over the next 2 years, the LCCs are going to continue to grab marketshare. Traditional high yielding routes are not going to recover with unemployment above 8 or 9% and companies still watching their travel budgets closely. During deflationary times, efficient companies do much better than older, inefficient, less flexible companies (like the legacies). Look for some more consolidation amongst the legacies. Legacy mergers typically follow the 1 + 1 = 1.5 when all the fat is trimmed out. Time will tell if the Delta merger can buck this trend and have 1 + 1 = more than 2.

That may have been true in the past but the LCC's arent really that much cheaper anymore. Delta for example is getting its costs in line and most of the merger related costs have been accounted for so far. Going forward Delta should be able to compete much better going forward because the merger has by far turned out much better than any merger in the past.

USAIR and UAL are going to have to pull things together better in order to stay competitive. I think that CAL and UAL may pull the trigger on getting hitched later this year. I'm not sure what USAIR is going to do, with them still running separate ops and nothing really looking up over there its tough to see them staying competitive.

SWA and Airtan have rising costs and since 9/11 they've been able to snag alot of marketshare but that explosive growth has tapered off.

With all that said, the industry consolidation is on its way. As soon as we start showing profits as a merged carrier here at DAL i think the others will start jumping in the pool.

 

[waveflyer]

He can tell it to the average government employee who gets over $70K per year.

where does this number come from? I just flew with a guy who quoted this to me? and he swore it as truth.

Then picked up a mark levin book he was super excited about.

check your sources superstar.

Albie- as always - very well said