Here comes the furloughs

[LearLove]

not argueing or anything and i do think the US is in the pooper economy wise but why are my planes full (over 60 seats filled out of 76 or 86)?

I'm pretty intune with loads as we over here at Rep still fill out the "can" old school commuter style with out, off, on, in, flt #, block, and pax #. (capts job)

So every leg at say 4.5 average legs a day and all I do is 4days trips I cannot recall putting a number lower than 50 other than maybe 5 times since say Jan 1, 2008.

 

[atlcrjdriver]

not argueing or anything and i do think the US is in the pooper economy wise but why are my planes full (over 60 seats filled out of 76 or 86)?

As McCain said, I don't know allot about the economy but I would guess it is largely due to the majors cutting domestic capacity to ramp up the international markets. DL, for example, has slashed and revamped its domestic ops numerous times and will continue to do so as oil prices remain high.

 

[Andy]

Bin Laden did and five years later we are no closer to findng him.

That's because Bin Laden's in Iraq guarding the WMD.

 

[kommutrdog]

Flat-out wrong.
It's true that demand in the USA has flattened out, or may be even slightly falling. But worldwide, demand is still growing at 2% per year.

Hank,

I'm with you on the Peak Oil thing, but you are early:
I am shorting the ever-loving daylights out of oil, right now. The hedgefunds are having to meet margin calls, and margin requirements for everybody are going up. It's just another step in the de-leveraging of this credit-based economy.

World wide demand will NOT continue to increase at 2%/year. Especially when the US economy takes a digger. For good or ill, we are still the big, swinging d**k, and when we catch a cold, the rest of the world will catch pneumonia.

We are heading into a vicious and severe recession and possibly a depression.

Bear Stearns blew up because they were leveraged TO-THE-HILT against billions and billions of $$ of mortgages of dubious quality. You really think that the world will just have a relatively "minor" downturn WHEN Citigroup goes T.U.?? Their balance sheet is absolutely full of holes...with more leverage. OUCH.

Yes, I said Citigroup. Don't give me this "too big to fail" argument. Bear Stearns won't be the first, and they won't be the last.

The FED can't fix this. The "Federal" Reserve is a Private Bank with a limited balance sheet of around $860 billion, of which half has already been committed in attempts to paper over this mess.

The government/fed can't inflate their way out of this hole. If they could, they already would have done so.

Last thursday, the markets shot up 2%+ because a couple of a$$clowns signaled the "all clear" signal...and the sheep bought it.

You want to know what happened behind the curtain??

A MONSTROUS FLIGHT TO SAFETY.

Billions and billions of $$ are fleeing into SHORT-TERM US TREASURY BILLS. So much money has been pouring into t-bills that the 13-week t-bill interest rate is effectively ZERO. (Rates move inverse to demand: High demand=interest rates DOWN)

Why would millionares and billionares be parking their money in a vehicle with absolutely ZERO return?

Simple: They know they will get their money back. Period.

An effective rate of 0% on the 13-week t-bill is a DEPRESSION print, folks.

The bond market is not buying this rally. Billionares are not buying this rally, and neither am I.

The fed can't fix this. The government can't inflate their way out of this.

I'm not wrong about this, folks. I wish I was.

Troubled times are ahead. Institutions will be tested.

 

[satpak77]

not argueing or anything and i do think the US is in the pooper economy wise but why are my planes full (over 60 seats filled out of 76 or 86)?

what did your company sell those (full) seats for ? A full 777 with seats sold at $100 each is a money looser

"but the flight was full"

 

[Bavarian Chef]

what did your company sell those (full) seats for ? A full 777 with seats sold at $100 each is a money looser

"but the flight was full"

Yield is far more important than load factor. You got that right.

 

[Wesb737fo]

No, you'd prefer increased demand. The primary reason why demand is decreasing because economic growth is turning negative.
The oil demand growth advocates point to Chindia's growing consumption. Chindia's economic growth was in large part powered by exports to the US. US demand for those goods are showing a decrease.

You think that decreasing demand is a fantasy world? What do you think happens in an economic slowdown?

No seriously dude, you don't understand, I want to live in a fantasy world where everything is perfect...just like the wallgreens commercial.

I can see what you are trying to say, but there are alot of guys on this board that sound like my brother (former fighter pilot) who sits around with his former fighter pilot buddies discussing Chinese economic politics like they know exactly what is going to happen, having no more formal training than the B.S. degrees in History or Communications they received from their respective colleges.

For God's sake, even Jim Cramer screams "NO, NO, NO..do not sell Bear Stearns....you would be an idiot to get out....they are not in trouble". Six days later the stock goes from $62 to $2. You would think that guy would have a clue. If he doesn't then why should we trust you. No offense.

I must go now.....it's my daughter's 1st birthday.

 

[Andy]

For God's sake, even Jim Cramer screams "NO, NO, NO..do not sell Bear Stearns....you would be an idiot to get out....they are not in trouble". Six days later the stock goes from $62 to $2. You would think that guy would have a clue. If he doesn't then why should we trust you. No offense.

YGBSM! Cramer? The man that claims to have 2000 stocks in his head? You can't follow 50 stocks with any precision, much less 2000. He does the same on those 2000 stocks that I do - knows the ticker symbol, the sector that it's in, and the latest headline. He doesn't know squat about the companies. I've found him to be a halfway decent contrarian indicator and have made decent coin shorting his picks .... missed BSC though because I was busy moving. Pisses me off, because I had it on my radar screen as a dead man walking. Watch MER and C go the same road. Possibly LEH.

Unlike Cramer, I actually read oil production and consumption reports. http://www.eia.doe.gov/
They've been revised downward on a regular basis, just like this last year: http://video.aol.com/video-detail/2...h-nar-chief-economist-lawrence-yun/3093097426
Funny thing is, Yun's still painting housing as blue skies and no problems.

Tell ya what, how about we revisit this topic after Labor day? By then, the trend will either be one of increased or decreased consumption. You've got the Olympics on your side, but I don't think that'll be enough to increase worldwide oil demand.
There's a reason why OPEC wants to cut production and says that the world is awash in oil.

 

[scarlet]

Obama=a pastor that hates White America !! He married Obama, baptized their daughters. Sat and listen to the pastor bash and bash the U.S. and returned Sunday after Sunday to listen to this., And now wants to be president !! Attended a muslim school when young?

Let me see, we have been fighting and looking for extreme muslims=and now lets elect one...maybe not extreme but his ties and roots (as with what the church web-site says) supports a muslim country!!!

Americans are stupid as he**, for him to even be this close is scary to me. Stop being like sheep !!

 

[contrail67]

WTF here we go again.

United stops hiring then cancels classes. Not good

Do you have any furlough information to share?

 

[atlcrjdriver]

Stop being like sheep !!

You may be right, and when Rev. Wright runs for president I will not vote for him. Obama attended his church...correct. Did he draft his sermons...no. Does he believe in everything right says...no. He was his SPIRTIUAL advisor and mentor.

spirtual-of the spirit; religious

Wright may have made some very good sermons on the lord in his 20+ years of service, I don't know because I have never heard an entire sermon from him. Have you? To put a mans 20+ year career into a 2min sound bite is wrong. That is to say that if you bounce a landing that you suck as a pilot.

BTW, Obama was raised primarily by his mother and grandparents not over in a muslim extremist camp.

Not being a sheep, just getting the whole story and not a sound bite.

 

[satpak77]

lets face it, the economy is in the dumps. People loosing houses, gas prices at $3+ a gallon, this affects everyone with a car and it impacts the airlines also.

Credit card debt at all time highs (I routinely see people pump gas and buy groceries on CREDIT CARDS, not debit, but CREDIT CARDS), job growth sucks. Bush may claim XXXX thousands of jobs added this year, but XXXX thousand burger flippers at Burger King is not an indicator of a "growing job market"

The days of the $250,000 heavy captain (with 6-7 years from new hire to Capt) flying 5 days a month, all to Rome and Madrid, are over.

If you have a flying job paying $100K + a year, and it is "stable", count your lucky stars and just be happy.

 

[contrail67]

Thank you for educating us all...I guess it is back to changing diapers for you?...cheers.

 

[satpak77]

For God's sake, even Jim Cramer screams "NO, NO, NO..do not sell Bear Stearns....you would be an idiot to get out....they are not in trouble". Six days later the stock goes from $62 to $2. You would think that guy would have a clue. If he doesn't then why should we trust you. No offense.

I must go now.....it's my daughter's 1st birthday.

Jim Cramer is more successful at being on TV than he was as a hedge fund manager. My black Lab could have made millions in the internet boom period that Cramer "made his millions in".

 

[DTW320]

Credit card debt at all time highs (I routinely see people pump gas and buy groceries on CREDIT CARDS, not debit, but CREDIT CARDS)

I agree with your post, but would point out that using a credit card for gas and groceries doesn't automatically mean that person is in debt. I use a card for those purchases as well but pay the balance in full each month, it's convenient, I get a few hundred a year in "cash back" or "rewards", and haven't paid a dime in finance charges in over a decade.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

I agree with your post, but would point out that using a credit card for gas and groceries doesn't automatically mean that person is in debt. I use a card for those purchases as well but pay the balance in full each month, it's convenient, I get a few hundred a year in "cash back" or "rewards", and haven't paid a dime in finance charges in over a decade.

My checking account card IS a Visa credit card ... at least to the machine I swipe it in. I say or press "credit" and the purchase is paid for from my checking account. So while I also agree, who knows what accounts these people are actually using. You really cannot tell.

I don't use a traditional debit card because my brain is all maxed out on PIN numbers.

 

[satpak77]

I agree with your post, but would point out that using a credit card for gas and groceries doesn't automatically mean that person is in debt. I use a card for those purchases as well but pay the balance in full each month, it's convenient, I get a few hundred a year in "cash back" or "rewards", and haven't paid a dime in finance charges in over a decade.

FYI that I have personally spoken to multiple people, "regular citizens" who are in middle class jobs, they told me they have paid gas and groceries with credit cards. And they know many more who have.

I commend your cash-back approach, but I would surmise that in the big picture, guys like you are the minority

 

[DTW320]

FYI that I have personally spoken to multiple people, "regular citizens" who are in middle class jobs, they told me they have paid gas and groceries with credit cards. And they know many more who have.

I commend your cash-back approach, but I would surmise that in the big picture, guys like you are the minority

I agree, and I do know what your bigger point was. The thought of taking out a loan to buy groceries is pretty frightening stuff and I realize that there are many folks in that boat.

 

[satpak77]

I agree, and I do know what your bigger point was. The thought of taking out a loan to buy groceries is pretty frightening stuff and I realize that there are many folks in that boat.

some interesting reading

http://www.usnews.com/articles/busi.../28/mortgage-woes-boost-credit-card-debt.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/business/12credit.html?hp

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

My checking account card IS a Visa credit card ... at least to the machine I swipe it in. I say or press "credit" and the purchase is paid for from my checking account. So while I also agree, who knows what accounts these people are actually using. You really cannot tell.

I don't use a traditional debit card because my brain is all maxed out on PIN numbers.

You expose your checking account to that level of ID fraud? YIKES!!!!

Its one thing to have fraud on a credit card.. You've got up to 30 days to clear it....

But to have fraud clean out your cash!!! YIKES again!!!

 

[Bavarian Chef]

You expose your checking account to that level of ID fraud? YIKES!!!!

Its one thing to have fraud on a credit card.. You've got up to 30 days to clear it....

But to have fraud clean out your cash!!! YIKES again!!!

Pull out your ATM card -- I bet it has a VISA logo on it.


What was this thread about?

 

[Voice Of Reason]

When you ASSume

Credit card debt at all time highs (I routinely see people pump gas and buy groceries on CREDIT CARDS, not debit, but CREDIT CARDS),

This is what happens when people make assumptions about things that shouldn't concern them. Our bank, along with MOST others, have the Visa / Mastercard logo on them...it isn't an option, and it isn't credit. In addition, MANY banks, like ours, have rewards programs where, when you click the CREDIT button, you get points for each dollar spent (toward free gift cards, etc). There is nothing CREDIT about it, other than you have to press the credit button during the transaction. This is not an unusual program, it is commonplace.
Yes, I believe that much of America is in credit debt, however, it is typically for houses and bling-bling purchases. Food is left to the govt to take care of, though there may very well be a FEW people with credit left that use it for groceries. THAT would be the exception however...do not make assumptions about people using that credit BUTTON in line, and get with the late 80s and realize that debit cards have Visa logos now.

 

[Rez O. Lewshun]

Pull out your ATM card -- I bet it has a VISA logo on it.


What was this thread about?

Wrong! it does say mastercard though....

My point is I don't use my check/cash card like a credit card... I use it to get cash and rare occasional purchase where AMEX isn't accepted. Although I have another MC credit card for that.

Use your check/cash card for everyday and common purchases and you increase the risk of fraud on that card... problem is... when a thief gets your data s/he wipes out your checking account... IOW your cash!

Just trying to help a brother out.... however, its your money.... until it gets stolen...

 

[airlinepilot]

Discover has a wonderful fraud prevention program.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

problem is... when a thief gets your data s/he wipes out your checking account... IOW your cash!

Just trying to help a brother out.... however, its your money.... until it gets stolen...

Most banks don't hold you liable for over around a couple hundred dollars of fraudulent purchases on a bank card, whether using the pin or credit button. Anyone can use the credit button, so that could happen either way, if you aren't careful. I haven't seen a ATM/debit card without a visa o m/c logo on at least 15 years. Obviously everyone knows you don't use debit cards online or at small establishments....that's where any risk exists.

 

[temcgrew]

So, is United really cancelling classes?

 

[contrail67]

Just got a call from flight ops..they said that they are not running classes over the summer. Not sure which, if any classes are "cancelled". Only said that the folks in 737 school are being switched to A320 school. He said there has not been any mention of furloughs, totally opposite of the thread title.

Whoever started the thread please post any furlough info. you have ....as for us on the inside, we are not seeing any.

Why are we discussing what is stamped on our credit cards anyway....

 

[mule]

If anyone wants to steal my identity...they can have it...heck, I'll give it away to the highest bidder!

 

[DTW320]

I haven't seen a ATM/debit card without a visa o m/c logo on at least 15 years.

You have to specifically request them. I have done that with all my ATM cards....requested a ATM card only without the debit card feature. Don't know if every bank offers that option though.

 

[Bavarian Chef]

Wrong! it does say mastercard though....

My point is I don't use my check/cash card like a credit card... I use it to get cash and rare occasional purchase where AMEX isn't accepted. Although I have another MC credit card for that.

Use your check/cash card for everyday and common purchases and you increase the risk of fraud on that card... problem is... when a thief gets your data s/he wipes out your checking account... IOW your cash!

Just trying to help a brother out.... however, its your money.... until it gets stolen...

Seriously -- what's the difference? You use your Mastercard-branded check card, right? It exists in this universe, right? So it would logically follow that any object that EXISTS could be lost or stolen.