Grinstein talks about DCI in Q&A

[wms]

Wrong. I have also said on this forum that I would want a fence established to protect any junior DCI pilots. I don't think anyone should be furloughed---and I have fought to try to help our own furloughs. But, I have a feeling that any negotiations will include some sort of J4J or "MDA style" scheme. If Grinstein wants pay cuts-- he will have to give something in return---and since we are the only ones targeted right now---we will get something in return for huge pay cuts. That is the way it is--and the RJDC can't do anything about NEW AIRCRAFT orders. We can negotiate for new 70 seaters at Mainline--or anything else in exchange for pay cuts. A staple with protections for the junior DCI pilots might be the best deal going.....


Bye Bye--General Lee

I think it's the best thing for everyone. I hope the proposal from DALPA and the creditors includes a merger between CA/ASA as well as brand-scope. It would be a huge savings and would be the way to reduce the number of RJs without furloughs. Additional aircraft should go to DAL; and if they're 70s, it would give us something to shoot for since DAL pilots aren't going to fly 70s for the same rate as us.

Staples with protection, all new aircraft going to ML and all new vacancies filled by furloughees, along with a leaner DCI would make DAL a better place.

 

[General Lee]

Only WMS sees the full picture here. Sleepy is still in his daze----oh yeah, watch out--Jetblue will go to Europe in 2015.... and our competition is dealing with Song--which is doing well and stealing passengers from Jetblue. Also, you can't just change everything you want in Chap 11--there still has to be negotiations. Also, he would be investigated if he just went into Chap 11 to get the pilots--neglecting his FIDUCIARY responsibilities. Making stock worthless for thousands of people might make them angry.

Comrcap,

Well, ok. Remember, management remembers your strike too. (that cost the corporation another $1 billion)


Chprpilot,

I don't think anyone wants more furloughs on the street. We would just like to have ours come back sooner than later into a cockpit. After pay cuts are done, many newer planes may eventually come our way--and we would like to see our guys/gals come back. That seems fair.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[chperplt]

Also, you can't just change everything you want in Chap 11--there still has to be negotiations.

Ask the good folks at US Air... They lost everything after they were told exactly what you state above..

I would like nothing more than to see your guys and gals back to work. Frankly, I don't see why there hasn't been a J4J deal done already. I'm glad to be at Comair, but maybe if you guys could have negotiated last year, your furloughed would have been put in those new hire slots.

 

[General Lee]

Negotiated with who? Not Lawson---he wanted something to help our people. That wasn't very nice. We, along with every other ALPA airline, didn't flinch when we gave money--even if it was mandated. ASA didn't ask for anything---only Lawson. ASA understood what was going on and offered help to some of our furloughs---and that will not be forgotten.


As far as USAir and their negotiations---they did get J4J and MDA---Mesa didn't take over every regional flight. United ALPA got their airline to give J4J to their furloughs--and even at second year pay. The people at the bottom will be taken care of---in or out of Chap 11---and Dalpa is currently talking in a committee with 40 creditors and vendors to give Delta a huge cut in costs---including our pay cuts. Delta can't just turn that down without good reason....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[lowecur]

Ask the good folks at US Air... They lost everything after they were told exactly what you state above..

Funny things happen in 11. People will sell their grandmother's rocker to save their jobs. Now you know why male tigers eat their young.

 

[lowecur]

Delta can't just turn that down without good reason....

DALPA is doing everything by the book, but believe me that Greenjeans will start sending out signals to the markets at least 30 days in advance if he intends to file 11. By that time the stock will be worthless. In fact, I have my doubts that any large institutional shareholders remain at this point. My guess is a good percentage of DL stock is held by the hedge funds and traders, as there is too much risk.

I think your reasoning that a company cannot go into 11 as shareholders would class action sue is non-sense. Any shareholder in the stock at this point is certainly aware of the risk, and would have a whale of time proving otherwise. Greenjeans has said bankruptcy would be his last option, but it is still his call to make. If he cannot get the percentage he needs from pilots (including scope & workrules), other employee groups, and creditors.........he will move to 11. He must see in his minds eye that all the give backs will be enough to make the company viable for the long term, especially the ability to pay the pension obligations.

 

[sleepy]

I am not in a daze General. I see thing clearly. You and your DAPLA buddies just need a dose of reality. I talked to some of your guys on the bus the other day. Can you say La La Land.

 

[bvt1151]

Only WMS sees the full picture here.

That assumes (incorrectly, I might add) that you do too.

oh yeah, watch out--Jetblue will go to Europe in 2015.... and our competition is dealing with Song--which is doing well and stealing passengers from Jetblue.

And this proves just how jaded your view of the world is. JetBlue is raping you guys on the east coast. Airtran, by Grinstein's own admission, is destroying Delta single-handedly in Atlanta...and we haven't even gotten to SWA yet. ATA and Jetblue have expressed interest in Europe. Perhaps its time to pull your head out of the sand and realize where the true threats are. I guarantee its not in the 50-70 seat jets who are actually providing your airline with its only positive cash flow. How much profit is JBLU, Airtran, or SWA bringing Delta?
It took you guys 30 years to realize that SWA is actually not a niche carrier. How long will it take you to realize your underestimization of JetBlue and Airtran? Hopefully soon. You've got less than a year, then BK.

tick tock...

 

[Medeco]

Medeco,


I don't post here to get your respect. I call it like I see it. It is all my opinion, and I know I could be wrong from time to time. But, what I say does have some truth in it---and a lot of you guys don't want to acknowledge it either. I believe we need pay cuts here at Delta--and we need more overall cost cutting. But, I also can see that the RJ is not our only answer---and we have over done it thanks to Fred GREED. Now, we don't have the capacity to carry all of the passengers that "are back", and we have too many RJs that are clogging up the system and can't bring in the required revenue for our hubs. (like the Summertime weight problems--making the 50 seater a 45 seater) I don't blame everything on DCI and the RJs--there are clearly other problems (like our pay--which is being addressed)---like higher aircraft lease rates and airport lease rates that are also going to be fixed. I don't try to pretend that I know everything and how to fix it--but there are some problems that are just obvious--like our over dependence on RJs right now---when fares are decreasing at the same time. Not good.

As far as ideas of my own---We need larger aircraft (100 seaters probably) to compete directly with the LCCs--instead of 50 and 70 seaters. Those could be financed after we give back huge pay cuts. Look, Spirit financed a huge amount of Airbuses (Airbi) with $150 million from an investment group. USAir bought a bunch of RJs (why?) in Chap 11. Then we also need a rolling hub in ATL and CVG (something Grinstein has proposed) to allow more productivity of our airplanes. A lot of our planes sit around and are not as productive as other airlines' planes. (Song has increased utilization--up 2-3 hours per day) And, we need to stop relying on RJs and use them as they were intended---as feeder flights( hub feed and maybe some point to point), new route finders( to eventually give new routes to mainline if successful), and flights to cities with NO LCC competition.(to maximize fares and revenue) I am sure there are many more ways to cut costs and bring this around. Also, don't sell your fuel hedges during a Middle East crisis.


Bye Bye--General Lee

General Lee,

Whatever. You put me to sleep, Im going to ride my bike and stop wasting my time.

Now I remember why I stopped reading this website so much.

Medeco

 

[General Lee]

BVT1151,


There you go again. Yes, your 50 seat jets bring in profit---(well, now 45 seat jets with the new weights)---but they are flying on routes that used to have 727s---and more revenue could be had to help us--but we parked all of our planes. Why is it that all of the profitable airlines (Jetblue, Southwest, and NOW AIRTRAN) dropped or never had RJs? More seats and low fares can squeeze a profit--along with cost reductions that are happening right now with us. Your 50 seat RJs will eventually only fly to cities with no LCC competition--and those cities are shrinking in number. Jetblue and Airtran are affecting us with fare price. We are fighting back with Song and doing well (Grinstein would have canned it now if it wasn't--and he said he is impressed). Also, the LCCs are growing and eventually will fight each other--something you haven't even realized yet. Jetblue and Southwest do not compete on one single route--yet. Nobody else will be invading ATL--and even Airtran is running out of space and will have to wait for a few years until their new terminal is built. Until then, we will replace our 50 seaters with larger planes and bring in more revenue to stregthen our hub--even Grinstein said he predicts a rolling hub that adds 30-40 new flights a day to compete with Airtran at ATL.

Medeco,

As good old Xremeflyer loves to say, "Night night Susan."

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[bvt1151]

BVT1151,


Why is it that all of the profitable airlines (Jetblue, Southwest, and NOW AIRTRAN) dropped or never had RJs?

And how many wide-bodies do they operate?

The bread and butter of the industry coincides exactly where Delta has a gap, the 70-120 seat market. Did I say the 50-seater was the answer, absolutely not, however they are most definately not, as you say, feeders. You're falling into the same way of thinking the legacy carriers have. Larger aircraft have lower casms, so we must get more and more of them, and use our small aircraft to bring passenger to them. Delta could be operating the 767 for free, and still be losing money.

How many fortress hubs are profitable? American at Dallas? United at Chicago? Northwest in Minnie? Continental in Houston? Delta in Atlanta?
But hey, we need larger aircraft and stronger hubs, right?

How many US airlines who operate wide-bodies domestically are profitable? ATA isn't, and I don't think they're even operating wide-bodies anymore. Continental is close, but how do their pilot salaries compare to yours?

Delta will probably survive due to another economic boom headed this way in the next few years. Nothing will really be changed, and ten years from now, when the next recession hits, Delta will be through.

But does it really matter if you plan on retiring in nine?

You're pointing at the wrong enemy. Management is licking their chops watching you blame another pilot group, from the same union, under the same parent company, for your own problems.

I heard Michael Moore is developing his next movie about how the 50-seater ruined everything. I'm not sure even he could make up enough evidence for that by himself. Boyd, on the other hand...

 

[fam62c]

General Lee and 727's.

I have noticed a recurring theme in General Lee's posts all over the place: heartache over the retirement of the 727's. I have to disagree with you General, at DAL's costs the 727 was a nightmare and if you still had them you would be losing even more money. The 727 (although it is a true classic aircraft design in every sense of the word and will be remembered as one of the best planes ever built) is not good in today's world. The 727 is a fuel-guzzling, 3-pilot aircraft that can only make money if it's full of high-fare passengers. While it's true that some of the routes where it was replaced have more PX than 50 I would be willing to bet that 50 seater with a low total trip cost (a better measure than CASM's for the most part) operating nearly full is generating more profit than the 727 was on the route. Also, DAL and the other majors need desperately to simplify their fleets and the 727 was an obvious target at the majors. One golden rule of airline economics that has been largely ignored by the majors for years is this: the greatest efficiencies will be acheived by having as few aircraft types as possible on the property. Breaking this rule has cost the majors untold millions of dollars and it's still something that needs to be addressed. The 727 won't be the last fleet retired at DAL before this is all over.

 

[USCtrojan]

Only WMS sees the full picture here. Sleepy is still in his daze----oh yeah, watch out--Jetblue will go to Europe in 2015.... and our competition is dealing with Song--which is doing well and stealing passengers from Jetblue. Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

JBLU may not go to Europe, but I'll bet ya Virgin will. They're starting up a LCC here, and it won't be long before they start a complete World network, at half the fare. It won't be long after that somebody else will start a LCC just to hop the pond. Either way, LCC's already have about a quarter of the market and rapidly increasing. Traditional Majors are dying, and dying quite quickly. The way it was, at least the past 75 years, is no longer. Adapt or die.

 

[sweptback]

Yes, your 50 seat jets bring in profit---(well, now 45 seat jets with the new weights)---but they are flying on routes that used to have 727s---and more revenue could be had to help us--but we parked all of our planes.

Hey General, what planes do you guys have parked right now? All I've been hearing is that everything is out of the desert in revenue service (even some old 767-200s recently returned). Obviously the MD-11s and 727s are gone, but you guys never had anything to replace them with other than 777s and 738s that were deferred/sold/whatever.

I know American's mounting a big expansion with MD-80s they're pulling out of the desert I believe, but as you run out of planes to bring back the majors are going to be hurting. Maybe they shouldn't have deferred delivery of all those 738s not so long after 9/11.

Maybe I'm nieve, but I think Delta's making a ton of money with RJs. If they're not, then why keep ordering more? Face it, if Delta wanted some 737s or 757s quick, they could have more than they could take as the used market is flooded too. Probably for cheaper even than what a new RJ costs. Yet, they don't seem to be interested...

 

[wms]

I believe DAL doesn't seem interested in ML aircraft because of negotiations with their pilots. When they settle they'll have to add planes, probably something in the 100 seat range. If scope relief is included the 25 RFP aircraft could and should be converted to 70s. Hopefully RFP aircraft will still go to ASA with all additional aircraft going to ML.

 

[General Lee]

Ok, where do I begin....?

bvt1151,

Why did Song start with 757s with 199 seats? They were an improvement over the Express 737-200s---offered more seats, entertainment, and a better chance to squeeze a profit with lower fares out there. Have you seen how full our 764's or 767-300s are flying to Florida from ATL. They are always packed---and with Airtran's low fares from ATL to FLA--we need every seat we can get. Why don't Southwest, Jetblue, or Airtran have widebodies? Well, they copied the "southwest" model----to start with one type and go from there. Airtran now has two types--but for two different missions from ATL. That is why Southwest got the 737-700---for long and short range missions. Airtran just started with the 717 (Dc-9 first....). Jetblue is doing the same with the EMB-190--shorter missions or thin long range missions. All of those airlines started out with the "southwest model" and are now branching out. We will probably simplify our fleet a bit---but our model is still the hub and spoke--and not every city from that hub needs one type of plane. LA and Miami require larger planes, whereas Dayton and Omaha require smaller ones. Airtran has an ATL hub--but they have also deployed a lot of planes on point to point---and they don't require a widebody---yet.

FAM62c,

I really didn't like the 727--I was an FE or engineer on it only 8 months or so. But, what I am talking about are the "seats available" the 727 had--and now they are gone. We used to fly 727s to SYR, BUF, ROC, MLU, SHV, JAN, BTR, and other places that are now flown by RJs--and the passengers are back---but our old planes are parked and we can't jump on those extra passengers. Fred Greed bought too many RJs---and sure--they are full--but we lost out on about 75 extra passengers per flight that a plane the size of a 727 could carry. Now we need every pax and every connection we can get---but now we have a clogged system and 50 seat RJs that can only carry 45-47 passengers now due to the "super sizing" of America.



USCtrojan,

Virgin America will fly INTL? Has Virgin Blue in Australia? How about Virgin Express in Europe? Nope. Virgin Blue does have some 737-700/800 routes to Fiji from Australia--but that is it. Virgin Atlantic (the first Virgin and only INTL one) might do a code share--but that sounds like it for right now. Fred Greed and Virgin America or Virgin USA will concentrate on A320 flights from the West Coast right now---and that is it. They would also need slots and other things needed to fly INTL (besides the planes)---but the one thing they do have going for them is Virgin Atlantic and their ground support and gates at some INTL airports (Hong Kong, London Heathrow, Tokyo Narita, etc....)


Sweptback,

We have all of the 727s (the last ones WERE due to expire in 2005), L1011s, and Md-11s parked. We are still paying for the MD-11s (2 are leased I believe to World)--and three of them have leases until 2015. I don't know if we will ever bring back the MD-11s--but we still have the sim and some spare parts. We are still paying something like $15,000 a day for each of them in the desert---and why we don't just give them away to stop the lease payments is beyond me. We should use them or lose them.... I don't think we have any other type of aircraft in the desert--I believe all of the 767-200s are back--and all of the 737-200s---although they will expire as their leases are up supposedly---all the way into 2008.


WMS,

I don't think Dalpa would touch the 25 RFP aircraft--and maybe some would be converted into 70 or maybe even 90 seaters. Wasn't there a post about a Comair crew in YUL seeing a CR9 in Delta colors? I don't know if that was true or not---but if those are "free airplanes" in terms of financing---then maybe Delta would convert some of the CRJ orders into CR9s--I don't know...If there were CR9s, though, I think Dalpa might want to take a closer look---but that is all speculation.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Freebrd]

**CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**....told the General about the fifty being a forty-five seater and now we'll never hear the end of it!

Also General, while those cities where the 727 flew into lost 1-2 727 flights a day, they now have maybe 4-6 RJ flights a day with much more frequency, and the passengers must love it because I never hear complaints as they deplane. Oh, just complaints from ML pilots is all I hear.

Clogging the ATC system? That's about a 3-5 year old argument, and now it's back with the General! Geez! Maybe it's those bigger jets clogging the system. No wait, can't be, Delta doesn't turn 'em quickly enough to clog the system. Darn...

 

[General Lee]

Freebrd---don't spaz on me. Frequency and Fred Greed's fantasies about businessmen wanting frequency on RJs versus comfort and first class on mainline birds was WRONG. Also, with a low fare environment---RJs won't work against LCC mainline aircraft--and that is a fact. Airtran could see this--and dumped their CRJs. End of story. The CRJs now have a weight problem thanks to obese America---you can't fight that. 3 or more less seats hurt revenue. ANd, you haven't heard people say "look, a mini-jet..." I have--because I ride RJs in the back sometimes---ask your stews what pax say. I know people like to compare the middle seat in back of a 757 to a CRJ aisle or window---but atleast you can bring your carry on's aboard, and not have to climb stairs in the rain.....

Delta is trying a new system to turn the mainline jets faster, and Song has that new schedule also. And, Grinstein is thinking about adopting a "rolling hub" to increase utilization and add 30-40 more flight into ATL a day. That aint clogging.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Skyboss]

fantasies about businessmen wanting frequency on RJs versus comfort and first class on mainline birds was WRONG.

Yup, but if they reduced CRJ capacity to 30 in three across with the same schedule the business travelers would **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** themselves.

 

[sweptback]

Sweptback,

We have all of the 727s (the last ones WERE due to expire in 2005), L1011s, and Md-11s parked. We are still paying for the MD-11s (2 are leased I believe to World)--and three of them have leases until 2015. I don't know if we will ever bring back the MD-11s--but we still have the sim and some spare parts. We are still paying something like $15,000 a day for each of them in the desert---and why we don't just give them away to stop the lease payments is beyond me. We should use them or lose them.... I don't think we have any other type of aircraft in the desert--I believe all of the 767-200s are back--and all of the 737-200s---although they will expire as their leases are up supposedly---all the way into 2008.

Come on General, airlines retire old planes. The L1011s were even replaced by the 767-400. And as for the 727, even if they weren't retired in 2002, they would for sure be gone now due to the fuel prices.

Now for the MD-11, I'm with you on that one. Either sell them or bring them back. Seems like Delta's pretty non-committal on that one. But this has been discussed ad nauseum in the past, really.

Still, Delta's going to get a 100-seater to replace the 732s. I wouldn't mind seeing DCI get a few more 70-seaters (mainly because they're a bit better from an operational and passenger standpoint than the 50-seaters), but I sure hope the 100-seaters go to mainline, for mainline rates.

I wish somebody could dig up a timetable from about the 2000 era and compare some of the old services to SYR, BUF, ROC, MLU, SHV, JAN, and BTR to the services now. Even with the RJ explosion over the last few years, I would bet that all those cities have the same amount of net seats per day as they used to with the 727.