Grinstein talks about DCI in Q&A

[bvt1151]

BVT1151,


Why is it that all of the profitable airlines (Jetblue, Southwest, and NOW AIRTRAN) dropped or never had RJs?

And how many wide-bodies do they operate?

The bread and butter of the industry coincides exactly where Delta has a gap, the 70-120 seat market. Did I say the 50-seater was the answer, absolutely not, however they are most definately not, as you say, feeders. You're falling into the same way of thinking the legacy carriers have. Larger aircraft have lower casms, so we must get more and more of them, and use our small aircraft to bring passenger to them. Delta could be operating the 767 for free, and still be losing money.

How many fortress hubs are profitable? American at Dallas? United at Chicago? Northwest in Minnie? Continental in Houston? Delta in Atlanta?
But hey, we need larger aircraft and stronger hubs, right?

How many US airlines who operate wide-bodies domestically are profitable? ATA isn't, and I don't think they're even operating wide-bodies anymore. Continental is close, but how do their pilot salaries compare to yours?

Delta will probably survive due to another economic boom headed this way in the next few years. Nothing will really be changed, and ten years from now, when the next recession hits, Delta will be through.

But does it really matter if you plan on retiring in nine?

You're pointing at the wrong enemy. Management is licking their chops watching you blame another pilot group, from the same union, under the same parent company, for your own problems.

I heard Michael Moore is developing his next movie about how the 50-seater ruined everything. I'm not sure even he could make up enough evidence for that by himself. Boyd, on the other hand...

 

[fam62c]

General Lee and 727's.

I have noticed a recurring theme in General Lee's posts all over the place: heartache over the retirement of the 727's. I have to disagree with you General, at DAL's costs the 727 was a nightmare and if you still had them you would be losing even more money. The 727 (although it is a true classic aircraft design in every sense of the word and will be remembered as one of the best planes ever built) is not good in today's world. The 727 is a fuel-guzzling, 3-pilot aircraft that can only make money if it's full of high-fare passengers. While it's true that some of the routes where it was replaced have more PX than 50 I would be willing to bet that 50 seater with a low total trip cost (a better measure than CASM's for the most part) operating nearly full is generating more profit than the 727 was on the route. Also, DAL and the other majors need desperately to simplify their fleets and the 727 was an obvious target at the majors. One golden rule of airline economics that has been largely ignored by the majors for years is this: the greatest efficiencies will be acheived by having as few aircraft types as possible on the property. Breaking this rule has cost the majors untold millions of dollars and it's still something that needs to be addressed. The 727 won't be the last fleet retired at DAL before this is all over.

 

[USCtrojan]

Only WMS sees the full picture here. Sleepy is still in his daze----oh yeah, watch out--Jetblue will go to Europe in 2015.... and our competition is dealing with Song--which is doing well and stealing passengers from Jetblue. Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

JBLU may not go to Europe, but I'll bet ya Virgin will. They're starting up a LCC here, and it won't be long before they start a complete World network, at half the fare. It won't be long after that somebody else will start a LCC just to hop the pond. Either way, LCC's already have about a quarter of the market and rapidly increasing. Traditional Majors are dying, and dying quite quickly. The way it was, at least the past 75 years, is no longer. Adapt or die.

 

[sweptback]

Yes, your 50 seat jets bring in profit---(well, now 45 seat jets with the new weights)---but they are flying on routes that used to have 727s---and more revenue could be had to help us--but we parked all of our planes.

Hey General, what planes do you guys have parked right now? All I've been hearing is that everything is out of the desert in revenue service (even some old 767-200s recently returned). Obviously the MD-11s and 727s are gone, but you guys never had anything to replace them with other than 777s and 738s that were deferred/sold/whatever.

I know American's mounting a big expansion with MD-80s they're pulling out of the desert I believe, but as you run out of planes to bring back the majors are going to be hurting. Maybe they shouldn't have deferred delivery of all those 738s not so long after 9/11.

Maybe I'm nieve, but I think Delta's making a ton of money with RJs. If they're not, then why keep ordering more? Face it, if Delta wanted some 737s or 757s quick, they could have more than they could take as the used market is flooded too. Probably for cheaper even than what a new RJ costs. Yet, they don't seem to be interested...

 

[wms]

I believe DAL doesn't seem interested in ML aircraft because of negotiations with their pilots. When they settle they'll have to add planes, probably something in the 100 seat range. If scope relief is included the 25 RFP aircraft could and should be converted to 70s. Hopefully RFP aircraft will still go to ASA with all additional aircraft going to ML.

 

[General Lee]

Ok, where do I begin....?

bvt1151,

Why did Song start with 757s with 199 seats? They were an improvement over the Express 737-200s---offered more seats, entertainment, and a better chance to squeeze a profit with lower fares out there. Have you seen how full our 764's or 767-300s are flying to Florida from ATL. They are always packed---and with Airtran's low fares from ATL to FLA--we need every seat we can get. Why don't Southwest, Jetblue, or Airtran have widebodies? Well, they copied the "southwest" model----to start with one type and go from there. Airtran now has two types--but for two different missions from ATL. That is why Southwest got the 737-700---for long and short range missions. Airtran just started with the 717 (Dc-9 first....). Jetblue is doing the same with the EMB-190--shorter missions or thin long range missions. All of those airlines started out with the "southwest model" and are now branching out. We will probably simplify our fleet a bit---but our model is still the hub and spoke--and not every city from that hub needs one type of plane. LA and Miami require larger planes, whereas Dayton and Omaha require smaller ones. Airtran has an ATL hub--but they have also deployed a lot of planes on point to point---and they don't require a widebody---yet.

FAM62c,

I really didn't like the 727--I was an FE or engineer on it only 8 months or so. But, what I am talking about are the "seats available" the 727 had--and now they are gone. We used to fly 727s to SYR, BUF, ROC, MLU, SHV, JAN, BTR, and other places that are now flown by RJs--and the passengers are back---but our old planes are parked and we can't jump on those extra passengers. Fred Greed bought too many RJs---and sure--they are full--but we lost out on about 75 extra passengers per flight that a plane the size of a 727 could carry. Now we need every pax and every connection we can get---but now we have a clogged system and 50 seat RJs that can only carry 45-47 passengers now due to the "super sizing" of America.



USCtrojan,

Virgin America will fly INTL? Has Virgin Blue in Australia? How about Virgin Express in Europe? Nope. Virgin Blue does have some 737-700/800 routes to Fiji from Australia--but that is it. Virgin Atlantic (the first Virgin and only INTL one) might do a code share--but that sounds like it for right now. Fred Greed and Virgin America or Virgin USA will concentrate on A320 flights from the West Coast right now---and that is it. They would also need slots and other things needed to fly INTL (besides the planes)---but the one thing they do have going for them is Virgin Atlantic and their ground support and gates at some INTL airports (Hong Kong, London Heathrow, Tokyo Narita, etc....)


Sweptback,

We have all of the 727s (the last ones WERE due to expire in 2005), L1011s, and Md-11s parked. We are still paying for the MD-11s (2 are leased I believe to World)--and three of them have leases until 2015. I don't know if we will ever bring back the MD-11s--but we still have the sim and some spare parts. We are still paying something like $15,000 a day for each of them in the desert---and why we don't just give them away to stop the lease payments is beyond me. We should use them or lose them.... I don't think we have any other type of aircraft in the desert--I believe all of the 767-200s are back--and all of the 737-200s---although they will expire as their leases are up supposedly---all the way into 2008.


WMS,

I don't think Dalpa would touch the 25 RFP aircraft--and maybe some would be converted into 70 or maybe even 90 seaters. Wasn't there a post about a Comair crew in YUL seeing a CR9 in Delta colors? I don't know if that was true or not---but if those are "free airplanes" in terms of financing---then maybe Delta would convert some of the CRJ orders into CR9s--I don't know...If there were CR9s, though, I think Dalpa might want to take a closer look---but that is all speculation.....

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Freebrd]

**CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**....told the General about the fifty being a forty-five seater and now we'll never hear the end of it!

Also General, while those cities where the 727 flew into lost 1-2 727 flights a day, they now have maybe 4-6 RJ flights a day with much more frequency, and the passengers must love it because I never hear complaints as they deplane. Oh, just complaints from ML pilots is all I hear.

Clogging the ATC system? That's about a 3-5 year old argument, and now it's back with the General! Geez! Maybe it's those bigger jets clogging the system. No wait, can't be, Delta doesn't turn 'em quickly enough to clog the system. Darn...

 

[General Lee]

Freebrd---don't spaz on me. Frequency and Fred Greed's fantasies about businessmen wanting frequency on RJs versus comfort and first class on mainline birds was WRONG. Also, with a low fare environment---RJs won't work against LCC mainline aircraft--and that is a fact. Airtran could see this--and dumped their CRJs. End of story. The CRJs now have a weight problem thanks to obese America---you can't fight that. 3 or more less seats hurt revenue. ANd, you haven't heard people say "look, a mini-jet..." I have--because I ride RJs in the back sometimes---ask your stews what pax say. I know people like to compare the middle seat in back of a 757 to a CRJ aisle or window---but atleast you can bring your carry on's aboard, and not have to climb stairs in the rain.....

Delta is trying a new system to turn the mainline jets faster, and Song has that new schedule also. And, Grinstein is thinking about adopting a "rolling hub" to increase utilization and add 30-40 more flight into ATL a day. That aint clogging.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Skyboss]

fantasies about businessmen wanting frequency on RJs versus comfort and first class on mainline birds was WRONG.

Yup, but if they reduced CRJ capacity to 30 in three across with the same schedule the business travelers would **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED** themselves.

 

[sweptback]

Sweptback,

We have all of the 727s (the last ones WERE due to expire in 2005), L1011s, and Md-11s parked. We are still paying for the MD-11s (2 are leased I believe to World)--and three of them have leases until 2015. I don't know if we will ever bring back the MD-11s--but we still have the sim and some spare parts. We are still paying something like $15,000 a day for each of them in the desert---and why we don't just give them away to stop the lease payments is beyond me. We should use them or lose them.... I don't think we have any other type of aircraft in the desert--I believe all of the 767-200s are back--and all of the 737-200s---although they will expire as their leases are up supposedly---all the way into 2008.

Come on General, airlines retire old planes. The L1011s were even replaced by the 767-400. And as for the 727, even if they weren't retired in 2002, they would for sure be gone now due to the fuel prices.

Now for the MD-11, I'm with you on that one. Either sell them or bring them back. Seems like Delta's pretty non-committal on that one. But this has been discussed ad nauseum in the past, really.

Still, Delta's going to get a 100-seater to replace the 732s. I wouldn't mind seeing DCI get a few more 70-seaters (mainly because they're a bit better from an operational and passenger standpoint than the 50-seaters), but I sure hope the 100-seaters go to mainline, for mainline rates.

I wish somebody could dig up a timetable from about the 2000 era and compare some of the old services to SYR, BUF, ROC, MLU, SHV, JAN, and BTR to the services now. Even with the RJ explosion over the last few years, I would bet that all those cities have the same amount of net seats per day as they used to with the 727.