publisher said:
Surplus,
In general, I think you make sense. There really was never any sense in thinking that ALPA could deal fair and equibly with both mainline carriers and regionals.
Unless we can find an equitable way to resolve the conflict of interest, I predict that one side or the other will ultimately leave the union.
As I say all the time, it is about money, power, and votes. When used efficiently, these empowerments in the hands of union leadership can wrest management from management.
I agree that it's about money and power. That I expect from management of the company, but not from management of the union. I think the union leaders, in pursuit of both those things for themselves have ignored the true needs of the membership. Not just the "regional" members but in reality ALL the members. The current difficulty, if unresolved, will ultimately hurt the people with the votes (in the union) far more than the minority that is being outvoted. They have not yet acquired the wisdom to recognize that.
All these things have to be done however in the place of market economics.
I think what you've really said in that section of your post is you believe the mainline pilot groups have priced themselves out of the market.
I'm not so sure I agree with that. Your theory is accurate but there are other ways to look at it.
What we really have today is 3 different markets. One is the traditional prime market in which the big six participate. There is a secondary market that I would call the discount market served primarily by SWA and a few others like JBlue, AirTran, ATA. The 3rd market is the niche served by the regional jet carriers.
SouthWest has been smart enough to identify its market and serve it well. It carefully avoids direct conflict with the big six in their fortress locations and has been "alone" for some time. Few would argue that it is anything but successful. There is room for a few more players and the 3 I mentioned can all do well as long as they remain in their market.
The regionals have also done exceptionally well in their segment. Particularly the significant carriers like Eagle, COEX, ASA, CMR, SKYW, and ACA and potentially Mesa. The others are on the perphery.
I'd mention Alaska and Horizon, but see them as a sub-market that is geographically centered. True "regionals".
Big six management has avoided confrontation with the 2nd level. They act to hold their own but don't really try too hard to take over the market knowing they can't really do that successfully with the infrastructure they have.
So, they have more or less skipped over the middle, but attacked the 3rd level with vigor. Wisely, they have not tried to eliminate the market, but through acquisition and clever subcontracting have gained control of it and are using it as an adjunct or embellishment of their prime market. It has worked very well and they are enjoying the best of both worlds using one to compliment the other while reaping the rewards of controlling both.
The mainline pilots have interestingly ignored the 2nd level either by accident or design (though I doubt the latter). Therefore you seldom see them complaining loudly about the low wages (in the same equipment). Perhaps they've figured out there's not much they can do about it. Those carriers however, are the ones that have truly cost them jobs.
Why the mainline pilots focus on the regionals and have singled them out as job stealers of their flying escapes me. The disimilarity of equipment and market makes it impossible for regional to replace big six flying.
The owners an controllers of the small carriers are not going to allow them to negatively impact the core business or shrink it. They are actually an expansion tool. This fact seems lost on the mainline pilots and, of course, the union they run.
If the union and the mainline pilots would take the approach that management has taken with the regional carriers, i.e., assimilate them in lieu of practicing apartheid everyone might benefit.
In any event, market forces will dictate the future. In the process the attitude of the mainline pilots may result in producing the very undoing of their empire that they want to protect.
