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government accounting office say's "no pilot "shortage."
- Thread starter N1atEcon
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Grandpa +65
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ImbracableCrunk
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So, because you guys don't like Obama, the GAO report on pilot shortage must be false.
http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/661243.pdf
I don't like raw oysters so. . . . there is no Easter Bunny. Makes about as much sense.
http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/661243.pdf
I don't like raw oysters so. . . . there is no Easter Bunny. Makes about as much sense.
MesabaDriver
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Obama hasn't done one thing for the airline pilots that he said he would do. Why do you think our sideways left union went from endorsing him in 2008 to not endorsing him in 2012. Our own representation doesn't even support him publicly.
Theres plenty of pilots out there but are they willing to work for what the market is right now? The majors are completing the cycle. They are reducing the regional flying. Squeezing the contract and bringing the flying back to the mainline property. In 5 or 10 years the trend will reverse just like it did on the late 90s early 2000s and well have the same game again.
DL AS AA UA US VX to name a few sure aren't having trouble filling classes or interview dates.
Theres plenty of pilots out there but are they willing to work for what the market is right now? The majors are completing the cycle. They are reducing the regional flying. Squeezing the contract and bringing the flying back to the mainline property. In 5 or 10 years the trend will reverse just like it did on the late 90s early 2000s and well have the same game again.
DL AS AA UA US VX to name a few sure aren't having trouble filling classes or interview dates.
Brett Hull
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nordo_2
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This is a good article for our side. The regional airline union is trying to spin a "Pilot Shortage". A solution in search of a crisis. Of course pilots know better. There is a shortage of good paying pilot jobs, never will be a shortage of pilots.
Regional airline unionist are chucking out false propaganda, to get relief.
Regional airline unionist are chucking out false propaganda, to get relief.
General Lee
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Hpilot
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atpcliff
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I hope so...so far this year I have had 4 trips that I wanted to fly on DAL, and could not: 3 were because of a lack of seats, and one was because DAL didn't fly to that location. I have also had 2 overseas trips that I went on StarAlliance...because SkyTeam didn't fly to two of the airports that I need to fly to/from.
Last year I missed a status on DAL's frequent flyer program by 2000 miles. There were about 8 trips that I wanted to fly on DAL, and could not, because of a lack of seats...and several more because DAL didn't fly where I needed to go.
GRB will be getting 200 more seats/day on DAL starting next week. Yay!
Last year I missed a status on DAL's frequent flyer program by 2000 miles. There were about 8 trips that I wanted to fly on DAL, and could not, because of a lack of seats...and several more because DAL didn't fly where I needed to go.
GRB will be getting 200 more seats/day on DAL starting next week. Yay!
General Lee
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From a Businessweek article out today, entitled:
"With Pilot Shortage, Regional Airlines Search for Someone to Pay Rising Costs"
By Justin Bachman February 28, 2014
The last two paragraphs:
"Another regional airline, Great Lakes, is pulling 10 seats from its 19-seat Beechcraft turboprops so its pilots can qualify to fly under different federal rules. One of the more interesting tactics is a scheme by Delta to replace regional jets with larger planes, part of a deal it struck in its last pilot contract. Delta acquired 88 Boeing 717s fromSouthwest Airlines, even getting the seller to kick in $100 million for new paint and other refurbishments, which it now deploys on short-to-medium routes such as Huntsville, Ala., and Savannah, Ga.
"The confluence of events suggested to me that [Delta CEO] Richard Anderson was reading the tea leaves," Akins says. "He saw what was coming with the regionals."
Bye Bye---General Lee
"With Pilot Shortage, Regional Airlines Search for Someone to Pay Rising Costs"
By Justin Bachman February 28, 2014
The last two paragraphs:
"Another regional airline, Great Lakes, is pulling 10 seats from its 19-seat Beechcraft turboprops so its pilots can qualify to fly under different federal rules. One of the more interesting tactics is a scheme by Delta to replace regional jets with larger planes, part of a deal it struck in its last pilot contract. Delta acquired 88 Boeing 717s fromSouthwest Airlines, even getting the seller to kick in $100 million for new paint and other refurbishments, which it now deploys on short-to-medium routes such as Huntsville, Ala., and Savannah, Ga.
"The confluence of events suggested to me that [Delta CEO] Richard Anderson was reading the tea leaves," Akins says. "He saw what was coming with the regionals."
Bye Bye---General Lee
livin'thesim
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General Lee
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That's what to article stated. Apparently they wanted to carry only 9 pax and block off the other seats, but the FAA said take them out. Think about the leg room.....
But Lakes will be the most popular airline again for pilots with less than 1500 hours....
Bye Bye---General Lee
azcz10
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1) Mainline increase pay to it's regional partners for their feed to hubs
2) Regionals increase FO starting pay to $40-50K & increase min days off to 14
Problem solved.
It only takes an increase of about $3-5 per ticket if you want to pass the cost on to the pax. Heave forbid that it comes out of profits for mainline to retain their regional feed.
There are only 88 717's going to Delta. They came from AirTran so the overall fleet has not increased. I can just see these guys doing ATL-RDU turns all day starting at $68/hr for FO's! Delta's minimum labor cost per hour is $241 on the 717's or $2.06 per seat. If we compare for comparison's sake - say, Compass. If Compass raised starting FO pay to $50/per hour with a guarantee of 75 hours/month. That's $45K. Go up $1 per year and top out at year 4 or 5. Their 1st yr CA & FO labor cost would be $115 or $1.51 per seat for a 76 seater. So, Compass (or any other regional with 76 seats) can raise FO pay and still provide that feed at a 27% savings in wages alone compared to mainline.
We'll see how important the regional feed is to mainline. Regionals, which are basically staffing companies, exist because they provided a cheaper alternative to mainline flying the same feed routes. There has to be a savings for the regional model to exist. But if you can't attract the thousands of currently qualified ATP's out there then the ability to provide the service shrinks. If there are fewer little planes to bring people to the big planes then what? The law of supply and demand would have it that the price goes up for the little planes or find an alternative method. Hmmm.....
Now what?
2) Regionals increase FO starting pay to $40-50K & increase min days off to 14
Problem solved.
It only takes an increase of about $3-5 per ticket if you want to pass the cost on to the pax. Heave forbid that it comes out of profits for mainline to retain their regional feed.
There are only 88 717's going to Delta. They came from AirTran so the overall fleet has not increased. I can just see these guys doing ATL-RDU turns all day starting at $68/hr for FO's! Delta's minimum labor cost per hour is $241 on the 717's or $2.06 per seat. If we compare for comparison's sake - say, Compass. If Compass raised starting FO pay to $50/per hour with a guarantee of 75 hours/month. That's $45K. Go up $1 per year and top out at year 4 or 5. Their 1st yr CA & FO labor cost would be $115 or $1.51 per seat for a 76 seater. So, Compass (or any other regional with 76 seats) can raise FO pay and still provide that feed at a 27% savings in wages alone compared to mainline.
We'll see how important the regional feed is to mainline. Regionals, which are basically staffing companies, exist because they provided a cheaper alternative to mainline flying the same feed routes. There has to be a savings for the regional model to exist. But if you can't attract the thousands of currently qualified ATP's out there then the ability to provide the service shrinks. If there are fewer little planes to bring people to the big planes then what? The law of supply and demand would have it that the price goes up for the little planes or find an alternative method. Hmmm.....
Now what?
BobbyBiplane
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Why would anyone bother to do this when pilots continue to come to work for these rates? There are four issues here.
1. Pilots continue to show up at these ridiculous rates, and
2. Regionals don't give a hoot as they can offload 50 seat flying, particularly those aircraft leased in the late 90s / early 2000s. These aircraft are coming off lease currently giving them a way out and breathing room, and
3. Mainline carriers have a contract for service. They have no incentive to change anything other than plan for alternative cheap flight support, if needed, and
4. Your neighbors and families continue to hunt down the absolutely cheapest seats they can find.
If you want to see the source of your problems, look in the mirror, at you families and at your neighbors. Until pilots STOP coming to work, there is no incentive to change anything.
Bob
I like that last paragraph. He didn't read any tea leaves. He created the situation in which he has supposedly predicted. Good or bad.
Freebrd
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Under Part 135 an operator can have 10 or less seats. Great Lakes is attempting use this (rather operate under 121) to continue paying pilots crap wages and keep flying those gov't subsidized small town flights. If the Feds look the other way and allow it, then here's where new pilots will build their hours to the 1500 mark.
As for leg room Jenny, it's still like 8 seats where they are bolted down now due to W&B from a cabin diagram I saw somewhere, at least at Gret Lakes. I believe they have one other seat (9total) closer to the cockpit, I mean flight deck, for the Feds to do observation flights.
Jenny, is it really true that Deltahhh is getting 717s? Wow, that's big huh. Putz!
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Freebrd
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Somewhere in the framework of supply and demand a business's share/investors will need to feel comfortable making a profit. The airline business is a risky business. The more risk is taken, the larger the reward or why be involve. If the business model isn't working and its clearly not then nothing left to do but cease to exist. Businesses make these types of decisions each and everyday. Airlines are no different!
trip
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50K signing. 20 days off guaranteed. Waive first year pay. Captain override. Base of my choice with positive space commute paid as DH. Travel bennies.
I think that would make me consider a regional. Kind of a part time, stay at home dad, "look I'm an airline pilot" type job. You would still be getting me on the cheap. The Delta 900 oops I mean 717 rates make that look like chump change.
Carl_Spackler
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People can debate that there is or is not a pilot shortage until they are blue in the face. It would help to define when a shortage exists.
If a regional can't fill a new hire class, is that a shortage? For that airline it is, although I wouldn't consider it an industry shortage. How about if none of the regionals can fill new hire classes. Whould that be an industry shortage, or only if majors can't fill classes?
The numbers are the numbers. Call it what you want. Seems like airline management wants to stick their heads in the sand and pretend that a problem does not exist.
Endeavor lost over 5.5% of their pilots over the last two months and they were replaced by eight new hires. I'm sure this trend is consistent for most if not all of the regionals, but nothing will change until regional capacity shrinks so much that mainline carriers lose connecting traffic that requires RJ's. Unfortunately, this problem has been years in the making and even if wages were doubled it would still take 3-4 years to take somebody off the street and get them in a cockpit.
When fares go up due to reduced capacity, people will be begging the government to do something. Of course the govt forcing us to work under the RLA has certainly not helped the piloting profession.
If a regional can't fill a new hire class, is that a shortage? For that airline it is, although I wouldn't consider it an industry shortage. How about if none of the regionals can fill new hire classes. Whould that be an industry shortage, or only if majors can't fill classes?
The numbers are the numbers. Call it what you want. Seems like airline management wants to stick their heads in the sand and pretend that a problem does not exist.
Endeavor lost over 5.5% of their pilots over the last two months and they were replaced by eight new hires. I'm sure this trend is consistent for most if not all of the regionals, but nothing will change until regional capacity shrinks so much that mainline carriers lose connecting traffic that requires RJ's. Unfortunately, this problem has been years in the making and even if wages were doubled it would still take 3-4 years to take somebody off the street and get them in a cockpit.
When fares go up due to reduced capacity, people will be begging the government to do something. Of course the govt forcing us to work under the RLA has certainly not helped the piloting profession.
General Lee
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You better believe it Freebrd. Those 717s have and will recapture routes that were handed to you guys. There are more out there in Europe (Volotea and Blue1 fly them) besides the Hawaiian 717s that have tons of cycles. More will come as your 50 seaters are parked. Sad but true.
Bye Bye---General Lee
waveflyer
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Bob-
Pilots show up for work bc they're already invested and holding out hope (and currency) for that major job-
I don't begrudge that-
What you see now is a delayed labor market where pilots aren't choosing to even enter the career, not stay once qualified for better-
So... The whole point of the argument is that pilots aren't showing up for those wages. That's what the regionals are complaining about. They actually thought they could make our career pay that low forever....
Pilots show up for work bc they're already invested and holding out hope (and currency) for that major job-
I don't begrudge that-
What you see now is a delayed labor market where pilots aren't choosing to even enter the career, not stay once qualified for better-
So... The whole point of the argument is that pilots aren't showing up for those wages. That's what the regionals are complaining about. They actually thought they could make our career pay that low forever....
PBRstreetgang
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Sweet Jeebus Genny,
The airframe you dream will save the world from global warming, end world hunger and serve as an incubator for unicorns, is no longer in production. Your fantasy airline bought the Yugo of the airline world, there aren't any more being made. The 717 and the refinery will both be placed on the iceberg to slowly recede towards the horizon of forgotten bad corporate ideas. Much like "New Coke" and polyester leisure suits(like yours).
How's that refinery? Anderson got a mini chubb, he pulled the wool over the pilots eyes and on a drunk bet bought a fleet of Yugos.
General Lee
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So wait a second, you think 88 planes "leased" from SWA AFTER they pay $100 million to refurbish and give C checks to them is a "bad deal?" Really? When the leases expire DL also got the ability to buy them outright at the "then" current price, which will be close to $4-5 million each. Even the engines were a good deal. 88 of them is a perfect number for the smallest fleet DL has, and besides the Hawaiian birds, there are other 717s out there in Europe.
How's the refinery? It has taken the middle man out of purchasing Jet A, and has lowered overall gas prices on the East Coast. You should have seen CNBC last week with a group of their analysts praising Richard Anderson for his innovation (including the refinery) and his forward thinking. The refinery itself hasn't made much of a profit at all, but DL's stock price has skyrocketed. How is SKW doing? How about your buddies at Expressjet? What a total joke. Is it true you guys are mass emailing Republic guys to get them to come over? Wow. Your part of the industry is not doing very well.
And I have talked to guys flying the 717 now, and they like it. Pretty advanced with an MD11 like cockpit. What's great is that they will be taking more of your current routes, and that was Anderson's intentions. He doesn't like RJs, especially 50 seaters.
Speaking of Yugo's, where are your MRJs? Ahahahaha!
Bye Bye---General Lee
From the Businessweek article again for PBR:
"One of the more interesting tactics is a scheme by Delta to replace regional jets with larger planes, part of a deal it struck in its last pilot contract. Delta acquired 88 Boeing 717s fromSouthwest Airlines, even getting the seller to kick in $100 million for new paint and other refurbishments, which it now deploys on short-to-medium routes such as Huntsville, Ala., and Savannah, Ga.
"The confluence of events suggested to me that [Delta CEO] Richard Anderson was reading the tea leaves," Akins says. "He saw what was coming with the regionals."
Last edited:
Freebrd
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General Lee
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