good article on Repulic and its road ahead

[RedDogC130]

http://www.centreforaviation.com/ne...st-vision-yet-of-consolidation-strategy/page1

 

[get2flyin]

“The Midwest product has always produced a RASM premium over competition but at a substantial CASM premium as well. Our job was simple – could we buy company and operate it at our costs and we’ve done that. We’ve dismantled everything that was Midwest. There is no operating certificate, no unions, no anything. It is a virtual airline providing capacity sourced either through Republic with the E-Jets or Frontier with its A319s. We’ve eliminated the CASM problems and hope we retained the RASM premium.”

​

Yeah! No more experienced employees making livable wages. Just a bunch of hopeful kids with the foolish idea that after they attempt to crush the rest of the industry with poverty wages and e-jets, they'll be able to somehow get on with a legacy carrier and then bitch about how everybody else who flies an RJ is ruining the industry. Welcome to the new "entitlement" generation of pilots.

 

[AnimalTale]

“the midwest product has always produced a rasm premium over competition but at a substantial casm premium as well. Our job was simple – could we buy company and operate it at our costs and we’ve done that. We’ve dismantled everything that was midwest. There is no operating certificate, no unions, no anything. It is a virtual airline providing capacity sourced either through republic with the e-jets or frontier with its a319s. We’ve eliminated the casm problems and hope we retained the rasm premium.”

​

yeah! No more experienced employees making livable wages. Just a bunch of hopeful kids with the foolish idea that after they attempt to crush the rest of the industry with poverty wages and e-jets, they'll be able to somehow get on with a legacy carrier and then bitch about how everybody else who flies an rj is ruining the industry. Welcome to the new "entitlement" generation of pilots.

read below in red!

Cya

 

[crj567]

“The Midwest product has always produced a RASM premium over competition but at a substantial CASM premium as well. Our job was simple – could we buy company and operate it at our costs and we’ve done that. We’ve dismantled everything that was Midwest. There is no operating certificate, no unions, no anything. It is a virtual airline providing capacity sourced either through Republic with the E-Jets or Frontier with its A319s. We’ve eliminated the CASM problems and hope we retained the RASM premium.”

​

Yeah! No more experienced employees making livable wages. Just a bunch of hopeful kids with the foolish idea that after they attempt to crush the rest of the industry with poverty wages and e-jets, they'll be able to somehow get on with a legacy carrier and then bitch about how everybody else who flies an RJ is ruining the industry. Welcome to the new "entitlement" generation of pilots.

I pray every day for Republic to be crushed like the cockroach it is! These guys are trying to become the MESA of the 100+ seat market. I hear AirTran is throwing everything they have at these scumbags-trying to put them out of business....
-For the sake of what is left of this industry, I sincerely hope AirTran is successful in crushing these sorry bastards!

 

[Propsync]

Yeah! No more experienced employees making livable wages.

Why is that so hard to believe? If Midwest MANAGEMENT was so great, how did it end up sold to a competitor and a equity firm? And then thrown away to Republic? If Midwest MANAGEMENT would have run Midwest successfully, you would have little time to blame the Republic pilots for this.

I love how you are all blaming the pilots. It's a playbook that management has that the pilots created for them. Wonder why things never get better? Find a mirror.

My qualifier:

On the flipside, Bedford is no dummy, and Don Burr was the darling of Deregulation. Time will tell for the former.

 

[lookin4better]

“The Midwest product has always produced a RASM premium over competition but at a substantial CASM premium as well. Our job was simple – could we buy company and operate it at our costs and we’ve done that. We’ve dismantled everything that was Midwest. There is no operating certificate, no unions, no anything. It is a virtual airline providing capacity sourced either through Republic with the E-Jets or Frontier with its A319s. We’ve eliminated the CASM problems and hope we retained the RASM premium.”

​

Yeah! No more experienced employees making livable wages. Just a bunch of hopeful kids with the foolish idea that after they attempt to crush the rest of the industry with poverty wages and e-jets, they'll be able to somehow get on with a legacy carrier and then bitch about how everybody else who flies an RJ is ruining the industry. Welcome to the new "entitlement" generation of pilots.

Wow...the last paragraph is VERY true!!!! Completely sums it up!

They will do anything to get there, and in the process blame everyone else for "stealing" flying except for their company, because its ok for them.... all in the name of "getting what they need to move on" ....the reality will be them (along with thousands of others at many regionals) will end up stuck there for their entire careers.

Skill and luck are two very different things.

 

[get2flyin]

Why is that so hard to believe? If Midwest MANAGEMENT was so great, how did it end up sold to a competitor and a equity firm? And then thrown away to Republic? If Midwest MANAGEMENT would have run Midwest successfully, you would have little time to blame the Republic pilots for this.

I love how you are all blaming the pilots. It's a playbook that management has that the pilots created for them. Wonder why things never get better? Find a mirror.

My qualifier:

On the flipside, Bedford is no dummy, and Don Burr was the darling of Deregulation. Time will tell for the former.

I don't blame the pilots at all. I wasn't some wonder child whose dad was a check airman for a major and got me a job nor did I come out of the military and walk right over to a major airline. I worked at a commuter first, just like the majority of my peers. However, I didn't want to crush the company we did feed for because I wanted to work for that company. I actually loved my regional job because I knew it was a stop on the path to a better job and I never expected to get major airline pay, benefits, or work rules. I could have stayed there and the life style would have gotten good but I knew if I left, eventually it would be better. Frankly, I think airlines would be better off if they did ALL the flying in-house. Start on a turbo-prop and retire on the wide body.

What's you opinion of Frontier? Bedford even said that company would be successful if they where left alone.

 

[800Dog]

I pray every day for Republic to be crushed like the cockroach it is! These guys are trying to become the MESA of the 100+ seat market. I hear AirTran is throwing everything they have at these scumbags-trying to put them out of business....
-For the sake of what is left of this industry, I sincerely hope AirTran is successful in crushing these sorry bastards!

The irony here is that you could replace republic with airtran/valujet and have made the same argument not so long ago. Airtran, LUV, Jetblue etc. have had a devastating impact on major airline pilot wages over the past two decades. Now they are the saviors? The irony!

 

[waveflyer]

Competition's a b!tch-

But this isn't a what came first- the chicken or the egg scenario. Major airlines allowed outsourcing to get out of control- and now that decision is coming back to haunt you. Big surprise. No major has been hiring due to outsourcing the majors allowed- keep that flying in house and the requirements would have been adjusted to fill classes.

Blame the kids all you want- but it still begins with major airline pilots negotiating away flying.

 

[Colonel Savage]

"...Frankly, I think airlines would be better off if they did ALL the flying in-house. Start on a turbo-prop and retire on the wide body."

Ironicly, that's exactly what the origional Frontier was doing back in the late 70's, when they operated their own small fleet of three Twin Otters on short-haul routes and fed their Denver hub. Some new hires went to the Otter, others to the Convair.

Southern Airways also operated a rather large fleet of 15+ Metro II's during the 70's, flown by their pilots, and fed their ATL hub.

Piedmont Airlines flew the F-28 using mainline pilots during the mid-80's, doing hub flying as well as point to point service to many places, including an intra-Florida shuttle.

 

[get2flyin]

The irony here is that you could replace republic with airtran/valujet and have made the same argument not so long ago. Airtran, LUV, Jetblue etc. have had a devastating impact on major airline pilot wages over the past two decades. Now they are the saviors? The irony!

I disagree. The difference between those other post-deregulation up starts was they competed by offering a superior customer experience against legacy carriers flying similar aircraft. We're not talking "Skybus" who just tried to make it on "cheap" and failed. Take a look at the early days of SWA, giving free booze to business travelers or JetBlue offering free TV. What does Republic offer that sets them apart?

 

[800Dog]

I disagree. The difference between those other post-deregulation up starts was they competed by offering a superior customer experience against legacy carriers flying similar aircraft. We're not talking "Skybus" who just tried to make it on "cheap" and failed. Take a look at the early days of SWA, giving free booze to business travelers or JetBlue offering free TV. What does Republic offer that sets them apart?

That is certainly another way to look at it. The similarity is that Republic pilots are undercutting Airtran, JetBlue etc with lower wages and benefits. Similar to what LUV, Airtran, JetBlue etc. did to the majors.

 

[800Dog]

Competition's a b!tch-

But this isn't a what came first- the chicken or the egg scenario. Major airlines allowed outsourcing to get out of control- and now that decision is coming back to haunt you. Big surprise. No major has been hiring due to outsourcing the majors allowed- keep that flying in house and the requirements would have been adjusted to fill classes.

Blame the kids all you want- but it still begins with major airline pilots negotiating away flying.

Completely agree with you. I cannot put into words how disappointed I have been with the majority of pilots at Delta who have voted yes on contract after contract that has farmed away more and more flying. I have and will continue to vote no on any TA that does not adequately address scope. Delta passengers should be flown by Delta pilots period....

 

[RobCat]

Once again. Pilots should stick to cockpits and airplanes. You are trained on how to operate aircraft (half of us can barely do that) not to make business decisions. This site is embarassing to our prof. as a whole. I can see why we are treated and paid the way we are. Long ago pilots where successful men that were accomplished, now we have a bunch of one dimentional pissy babies that are accomplished on finding a Glime and getting gouges.

 

[27 driver]

The irony here is that you could replace republic with airtran/valujet and have made the same argument not so long ago. Airtran, LUV, Jetblue etc. have had a devastating impact on major airline pilot wages over the past two decades. Now they are the saviors? The irony!

Dude, Airtran Captains make the same as their counterparts at DAL flying the MD 80. FO's are a different story.

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

Dude, Airtran Captains make the same as their counterparts at DAL flying the MD 80. FO's are a different story.

Which is where it ends because a majority of those Captain jobs pay better on bigger aircraft.....

The company loves making these comparisons to Airtran wages and then say we make more because we fly bigger planes.....which is crap....

 

[Lear70]

Dude, Airtran Captains make the same as their counterparts at DAL flying the MD 80. FO's are a different story.

And many Southwest F/O's make more than AirTran CAPTAINS in the same longevity. Doesn't really matter in the Scope argument, I just wanted to make sure that you weren't arguing that AirTran pilots are adequately compensated...

Scope is the answer. Don't allow ANY of your flying to be farmed out. Bind the holding company. Write dozens of examples of what "outsourcing" is so that it can't be masked under a "codeshare" or "unique operating agreement".

By the way, it's "Gleim", not "Glime", last time I checked (haven't opened one in about 10 years).

 

[Propsync]

I don't blame the pilots at all. Frankly, I think airlines would be better off if they did ALL the flying in-house. Start on a turbo-prop and retire on the wide body.

What's you opinion of Frontier? Bedford even said that company would be successful if they where left alone.

I cut your post down so I won't take a whole page. What you think should have happened and what is happening is two vastly different things. What has happened is management has ALL of the pilots in the OWNED column. Until that gets reversed, this profession will never advance. Pilots pointing fingers at each other only cements OWNED column status. More troubles are no orders of narrow-body or larger, large amounts of furloughs, and age 65 really has set this career back.

At this point the so-called bottom feeders are so intertwined with the majors, there's no turning back. Anybody with 70 seats is integral to the mainline operation. Wishing harm is the same as wishing the mainline connected to go as well. Back to square one.

I have no opinion on Frontier. I am technically out of the industry withholding my services. If things were to improve where my value was recognized, and I see real stability (don't laugh at once everyone) I'd get back in. The trouble I see is when those jobs actually come available, I will be so far out of currency and so many fewer hours I won't be considered.

You can all say I didn't fight hard enough, chased enough aluminum to keep me almost dead or certificate-less, or just wasn't lucky. I think I got out at the right time, but only time will tell.

Just for the record, management put Skyway and Midwest pilots on the street, not the pilots of Skywest or Republic.

 

[maru657]

"...Frankly, I think airlines would be better off if they did ALL the flying in-house. Start on a turbo-prop and retire on the wide body."

Ironicly, that's exactly what the origional Frontier was doing back in the late 70's, when they operated their own small fleet of three Twin Otters on short-haul routes and fed their Denver hub. Some new hires went to the Otter, others to the Convair.

Southern Airways also operated a rather large fleet of 15+ Metro II's during the 70's, flown by their pilots, and fed their ATL hub.

Piedmont Airlines flew the F-28 using mainline pilots during the mid-80's, doing hub flying as well as point to point service to many places, including an intra-Florida shuttle.

Almost exactly correct. In fact Frontier initially started operating the twin otters as a seperate entity. The MEC at Frontier then hired pickiters to protest the safety angle in front of Frontier ticket counters. This forced Frontier management to bring the Otter pilots in house with seniority. In order for this to work today, I suspect we would need some form of re-regulation mandating this system wide.

 

[Lear70]

In order for this to work today, I suspect we would need some form of re-regulation mandating this system wide.

Correct.

Deregulation was the ultimate cause of all this. With mainline pilots selling out Scope a close 2nd.

And I disagree with Propsync. Until pilots stop undercutting each other for the job, this won't stop until there is an outside force on the marketplace to artificially restrict the number of qualified pilots (ATP requirement for all new-hire F/O's, etc).

It will be interesting in about 10 years or so, when all the furloughed pilots from various carriers (including the closed ones) are hired somewhere, the majors have to replace retiring pilots (normal attrition) and pick off the top of the regionals again, and then the regionals need new, warm bodies in the right seat of those 70 and 90 seaters, and the ATP requirement is firmly in place, so the available pilot pool is virtually nonexistent (with the publicity that pilot wages have seen lately, I'd be surprised to see flight school new entrants pick up anytime soon).

That will be the first time in half a century we will truly have had a "pilot shortage". If ALPA, CAPA, and everyone else can get the law held firmly in place without starting some type of ab-initio program, it will be crunch time for airline executives.

I've all but given up on the idea of re-regulation, although it's the ONLY thing that's going to stop this repeated bankruptcy cycle airlines keep getting to jump through to dump all their obligations and start over again. That's $$ BILLIONS in new, Federal spending that the public will have to eat in terms of increased taxes, and woe to the White House Administration that has the cajones to try to push that one through.

Time will tell...

 

[UnstableAviator]

The real irony here is that after the SLI, ALL flying in the RAH system will be done by pilots on the RAH seniority list. From Q400 to A320. If nothing else, RAH pilots will be the first with a chance to "take it back" in a long time.

 

[800Dog]

Dude, Airtran Captains make the same as their counterparts at DAL flying the MD 80. FO's are a different story.

Try and keep up with the context of the discussion. For years, Airtran/Valujet pilots made significanly less than the competitions pilots. Over time, that cost advantage was a major factor that caused pilots at the majors to take 30-50% pay cuts and lose their DB plans. It took bankruptcy to bring legacy airline pilot pay down to that of the Airtrans/LUVs/JetBlues. Now Republic is putting pressure on Airtran with cheaper labor. Not a difficult concept......

 

[waveflyer]

The real irony here is that after the SLI, ALL flying in the RAH system will be done by pilots on the RAH seniority list. From Q400 to A320. If nothing else, RAH pilots will be the first with a chance to "take it back" in a long time.

Wow. You're right- bc your pilot group is motivated to keep a SLI. And don't believe a turboprop is beneath them.

It's what I've been saying all along. Major airlines could do it- they just don't want to badenough to fight for it.

I think it would be a great career to have the option of bidding everything- turboprop to 777

 

[CFI2766]

Correct.

Deregulation was the ultimate cause of all this. With mainline pilots selling out Scope a close 2nd.

And I disagree with Propsync. Until pilots stop undercutting each other for the job, this won't stop until there is an outside force on the marketplace to artificially restrict the number of qualified pilots (ATP requirement for all new-hire F/O's, etc).


There is no financial motivation for an individual pilot to not 'undercut' each other. This is often misunderstood by people casting stones at junior pilots. After all, what do you want the new guys to do? Not take the job to help someone else have higher wages? If the new guy/gal doesn't take the job, and therefore the seniority number, someone else will. I'm not necessarily defending the junior pilots here, per se'. I'm just trying to dispel the notion that the decline in pilot wages can be laid at the feet of those who are unfortunate enough to be junior.

I agree that the industry needs an iron clad minimum starting point to ensure that it remains an attractive career choice for pilots. Unfortunately, the industry doesn't exist to provide an attractive career choice for pilots.

This is an unpleasant truth in the facts here: experience requirements wouldn't have changed the outcome of 3407...

 

[kf4amu]

If nothing else, RAH pilots will be the first with a chance to "take it back" in a long time.

Take what back? They never had anything but crappy pay and work rules in the first place.

 

[Lear70]

There is no financial motivation for an individual pilot to not 'undercut' each other. This is often misunderstood by people casting stones at junior pilots.

You're dead wrong. Sorry, going to have to throw a little perspective by someone with 20 years in the business:

This is often misunderstood by the junior pilots who don't understand the "big picture". The financial motivation "not to undercut each other" is for YOUR OWN top-out wages to be higher, later down the road, resulting in an overall career earning expectancy hundreds of thousands of $$ more. It's simple math.

After all, what do you want the new guys to do? Not take the job to help someone else have higher wages?

No, it's to help YOU have higher wages, genius.

Sure, you can take that $18,000 a year job right now, and have a 737 Captain topping out at $180 bucks an hour, or you can refuse to take a crap regional job at $18k a year, force the companies to correct their hiring and pay practices, and top out at $220 an hour for that 737 CA 20-year pay rate.

Waiting a year or two and starting out at $36k at a major flying those turboprops or RJ's/SNB's in-house and make it back by your 4th year and retire with an extra $1,000,000 in the bank. And yes, the extra zeros are actual numbers.

p.s. Yes, I'm practicing what I preach. I didn't sit right seat in an RJ, turned it down twice, and don't regret it for a second.

If the new guy/gal doesn't take the job, and therefore the seniority number, someone else will.

And that's the cop-out by the inexperienced to try to improve their lot in life.

I'm not necessarily defending the junior pilots here, per se'.

Yes, you are.

I'm just trying to dispel the notion that the decline in pilot wages can be laid at the feet of those who are unfortunate enough to be junior.

You're right. It's SHARED. Both by the junior idiots who keep taking those $18k a year jobs and the senior idiots who gave up Scope and keep doing so. I'd like to smack the lot of you upside the head.

I agree that the industry needs an iron clad minimum starting point to ensure that it remains an attractive career choice for pilots. Unfortunately, the industry doesn't exist to provide an attractive career choice for pilots.

Nope. That's why it's up to each, individual pilot to do what's right not ONLY for themselves, but also for the profession. Something doctors and attorneys seem to be able to figure out, but pilots, for all their alleged "intelligence", are frakking idiots about.

This is an unpleasant truth in the facts here: experience requirements wouldn't have changed the outcome of 3407...

Ummm,,, we weren't talking about experience and accident rates. We were talking about the industry, Republic, and pay. Wrong thread.

 

[scoreboardII]

Lear said:

This is often misunderstood by the junior pilots who don't understand the "big picture". The financial motivation "not to undercut each other" is for YOUR OWN top-out wages to be higher, later down the road, resulting in an overall career earning expectancy hundreds of thousands of $$ more. It's simple math.

Wow, how naive. The base reason this industry is in the shape it is is because of folks like yourself who sell this false hope of higher wages "later down the road". Thats called a Ponzi scheme.

If you make more now, you'll have more later, thats called time value of money.

What happens when the everyone is at that highest wage tier you speak of because of 5-10 years of recession? I'll tell you what, no company can make any money.

How about some reality, we are all pilots, pay all of us pilots a pilots wage.

Just like a Dr gets a set amount per service, just like a plumber gets a set amount per service, we offer a service, a flight hour.

For arguments sake lets say $125 is your wage from day one until you retire.

You get $10 more an hour to Captain, $15 to be a checkairmen.

If you keep your nose clean you get $1 more per hour per year with the company your with.

Thats how to solve this problem, not hide behind a false hope of higher wages 30 years down the road.

 

[Lear70]

Wow, how naive. The base reason this industry is in the shape it is is because of folks like yourself who sell this false hope of higher wages "later down the road". Thats called a Ponzi scheme.

Wow. How short-sighted.

You obviously weren't around in this career before the regionals got past a 34-seat Saab.

Hint: That's how the industry WORKED for DECADES. It wasn't until Scope was released to allow aircraft larger than 30 seats and, eventually, RJ's, that the slide down the slope of declining wages happened.

Ponzi scheme? Take a reality check on airline wages from the 60's through the 90's.

Wow,,, amazing so many people don't remember the past and are dead-set on "this is the way it is". No wonder this "profession" is so screwed up.

If you make more now, you'll have more later, thats called time value of money.

No, do the math again. If you make $18k a year for 3 years, that's $54,000. Add 3% COLA for those 3 years, you come out close to $61,000.

If you make double that starting your first year, but it takes 3 years longer to get hired because it's the MAJORS flying those aircraft instead of a crap regional, you make that back in 4 years. Every year AFTER that, you make more, retiring with HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS MORE, the present value of money incorporated into that number.

It's amazing to me the number of people who can't do simple compounded math. Maybe I can do the scales easier in my head because I REMEMBER when the pay scales were higher, as in BEFORE the advent of the "RJ", yet I flew for 5 years as an RJ Captain so I know what THOSE scales add up to as well.

What happens when the everyone is at that highest wage tier you speak of because of 5-10 years of recession? I'll tell you what, no company can make any money.

You don't run an airline when "everyone is at that highest wage". Here's a news flash: EVERY company has to grow. Southwest included. If you're not growing, you're not generating increasing revenue with new-hire pilots at the lower pay scales. In other words, if you're not growing, you're dying.

Which is why I have said for over a decade, and CONTINUE to say, that this airline model of deregulation is a FAILURE. Each airline reaches a point where they can no longer grow, with constant pricing pressure from airlines with lower CASM, then it stagnates and either files bankruptcy repeatedly or it dies. Period. The end. Thanks for playing. NOT rocket science.

The only thing the Regionals have done is prolonged that realization by our elected legislature by artificially decreasing CASM for an ever-growing percentage of Legacy carriers' operations.

How about some reality, we are all pilots, pay all of us pilots a pilots wage.

You talk about reality, talk about the inability to pay high wages, then say "pay all of us pilots a pilot's wage"??? That, in and of itself, is a non-sequitur.

Thats how to solve this problem, not hide behind a false hope of higher wages 30 years down the road.

Talk about hiding behind "false hopes"... you want to simply say "pay me a better wage", and ignore the economics behind it. Doesn't work like that.

Fact is, this system is broken. It's been broken since that idiot Kahn thought it up. Hell, even HE admitted, during his last public speech on the matter, that airlines would never be as profitable as they once were before deregulation, and expressed doubts they would ever be profitable again.

Here's a brief history lesson on the outcome of deregulation, stripped of anything pretty or the "right of every citizen to airline travel", which is absurd, in a capitalism-based economy:

http://www.columbia.edu/~lnp3/mydocs/economics/airline_deregulation.htm

The facts are simple:

1. You cannot raise ANY wages without raising prices. Regional wages included.

2. Ticket prices are not perfectly elastic. You raise prices, people stop flying, we lose jobs.

3. NOTHING is going to fix this industry without a cost. It's going to pinch SOMEONE. Either the flying public through increased prices, or the jobs that are lost when re-regulation decreases ASM's to the point people start paying reasonable ticket prices again. Period. The end. Pass the stuffing.

Those ARE the only two options to truly FIX the problem with the airline industry. You have to raise ticket prices. Either the airlines have to raise them of their own accord (unlikely) or the government has to step in and force it. Otherwise this profit/bankruptcy/profit/bankruptcy cycle will continue with an occasional raping of the employee group thrown in for good benefit. Again, not rocket science.

Since we, as pilots, seem to be unable (or unwilling) to regulate ourselves as the medical and legal profession seem to be capable of doing, and since the government, having just spent the most amount of money in the history of our country, are likely loathe to talk bailout of the most expensive industry ever to once be regulated, I suspect this B.S. will continue long after I'm gone.