From production outlooks I've seen of the future, we should be on a plateau for oil production for the next couple years. It should stay around 84-86 million barrels a day till about 2008.
This is because there is a lot of declines in current fields but there are a TON of new projects that are increasing oil supply at the same time. But currently the increases are just making up for the declines. Hence, level oil production.
After 2008 it's anybody's guess. We could see oil production begin to decline. Now it could happen earlier or later. Let's hope later.....
The coal-to-oil plants take about 2 years to be built and the first one just started being built now in the U.S. It will supply about 1/400th of the U.S.'s oil demand. We must do better than this.
These high oil prices are a good thing. Let's just hope they don't get out of control. These high oil prices are good because hopefully they will show everyone that these prices are here to stay and the investment dollars will start to pour into projects all over the world. Once the money starts flowing things will start getting done at a much faster rate.
Nuclear, tarsands, shale oil, Electric Plug-in hybrids, ethanol from something other than corn, cellulosic ethanol, Scooters, car-pooling, bicyclyes, walking, public transportation, moving closer to work and town, and much more will begin to be done. Let's hope those dollars start pouring in there.
We won't all lose our jobs. We may become a more poor people, but there will still be people saving for that far-away vacation, people having to go on that business trip, and people that wanna go see grandma across the country. Air travel will never end.
We're going to be fine in the long run. Eventually all the alternatives will be online and we'll say "PHEW". According to Robert Hirsch of the U.S. govt. DOE it may take a decade or two. Also Peter Tertzakian is his new book says the same thing. We'll be fine in the long run. There will just be a long, not so pleasant transition period. This doesn't mean we have to be unhappy. We will become closer with our families and to people within our local neighborhoods, and our communities will become much closer and stronger.
Jet