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Future Price of Oil ??

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kommutrdog

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 9, 2002
Posts
765
I hope this post doesn't get removed/moved by the moderator. It isn't about flying directly, but since the price of oil is a HUGE factor in the operations of all carriers, I thought it might be of some interest.

Draw your own conclusions:

On March 20th, 2006 Iran is opening its own Oil Exchange, and all transactions will be conducted in Euros, not US dollars. The Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB) is intended to compete with the two main oil exchanges in New York (NYMEX) and London (IPE).

This could significantly alter the current landscape of the US currency and the price of oil. Right now, all oil is currently traded via the exchanges in London and New York and priced in US Dollars. That means that foreign countries need to hold billions of US Dollars in order to trade in these markets...however, if they can get their oil in Euros, it COULD diminish the US Dollar as the de-facto reserve currency of the world. Historically, the US Dollar has been viewed as a safe-haven for foreigners.

This is not a "The-sky-is-falling-post". Just bringing this up for discussion.
 
kommutrdog said:
On March 20th, 2006 Iran is opening its own Oil Exchange, and all transactions will be conducted in Euros, not US dollars. The Iranian Oil Bourse (IOB) is intended to compete with the two main oil exchanges in New York (NYMEX) and London (IPE).

This could significantly alter the current landscape of the US currency and the price of oil. Right now, all oil is currently traded via the exchanges in London and New York and priced in US Dollars. That means that foreign countries need to hold billions of US Dollars in order to trade in these markets...however, if they can get their oil in Euros, it COULD diminish the US Dollar as the de-facto reserve currency of the world. Historically, the US Dollar has been viewed as a safe-haven for foreigners.
Click to expand...
kommutrdog,

I've been saying since last July that we'd be at war with Iran in March 2006 and it has been because of this oil trading exchange Iran is going to open.

There are a lot of conspiracy theorists that predict we're going to attack Iran to protect the dollar more than we're going to attack them for nukes right now, and well I guess I'm one of them!

Granted the nukes are a good reason to attack Iran as well and will be the only reason the American public will EVER HEAR. The true and immediate concern though is the Oil trading exchange.

I think Israel will do the dirty work with U.S. help. They'll probably drop some bombs on Iran's nuke facilities and a nice big one right on the future OIL TRADING EXCHANGE :)

The U.S. dollar will tank if other currencies are used to trade oil.

One of MANY great articles on the web about the Iranian oil bourse and the potential it has to devastate the U.S. economy can be found here:
http://energybulletin.net/12125.html

MARCH 20, 2006: D-DAY FOR IRAN :)

Jet
 
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The irony of this is amazing! I was doing a search for articles to post about Iran and the oil bourse and came up with this!

Look at this article from:
http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20060119-075725-6399r
.Tehran plans nuclear weapon test by March

WASHINGTON, Jan. 19 (UPI) -- Tehran is planning a nuclear weapons test before the Iranian New Year on March 20, 2006 says a group opposed to the regime in Tehran.

The Foundation for Democracy citing sources in the U.S and Iran offered no further information.

The FDI quotes sources in Iran that the high command of the Revolutionary Guards Air Force have issued new orders to Shahab-3 missile units, ordering them to move mobile missile launchers every 24 hours in view of a potential pre-emptive strike by the U.S. or Israel. The order was issued Tuesday, Jan. 16.

The group says the launchers move only at night, and have been instructed to change their positions "in a radius of 30 to 35 kilometers." Prior to the new orders the Shahab-3 units changed position on a weekly basis. Advance Shahab-3 units have been positioned in Kermanshah and Hamadan province, within striking distance of Israel. Reserve mobile launchers have been moved to Esfahan and Fars province.
Click to expand...
This is hilarious! I wonder if the "group opposed to the regime in Tehran" is the CIA?! lol. Sorry I just think it's funny......

This is what the American people will be told :)

Either this is bogus intel by Israel or the CIA to go to war or Iran is really picking a fight badly!

Either way, I think you're gonna need that popcorn islandhopper!

MARCH 20, 2006: D-DAY FOR IRAN :)

Jet
 
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Doug, AKA RETARD:
What are you talking about? I never mentioned peak oil, you dork!!

"Shut UP, Beavis--You're getting old!"

Jet
 
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Has anyone read Congressman Curt Weldon's book: "Countdown to Terror"?

Congressman Curt Weldon says from a source he has, that the CIA won't listen to, that Iran:
1) Is behind the insurgency in Iraq and wants to get Iraq into a Civil War. (has anyone been watching TV today?)
2) Is closer to developing a nuclear bomb than any of us realize and wants to sneak one across the Mexican border.
3) Wants nothing more than the destruction of the U.S. and Israel.
4) Is housing Osama Bin Laden

Unfortunately we're pinned down in Iraq right now or I can guarantee Iran, one of the original members of the "AXIS OF EVIL", would be definitely dealt with in March.

I bet Iran has a lot to do with the CIVIL WAR talks and the insurgency in Iraq. Iran knows that as long as our military is pinned down there, we can't go kick their butt. Plus if we're pinned down with Iraq going into chaos, there will be major backlash politically against Bush if he decides to attack Iran.

Meanwhile Iran will try to crush the U.S. financially with the oil bourse.

If the U.S. and Israel want to go to war for the Iranian oil bourse in MARCH, then Israel and the U.S. are going to have to start building their case soon. That article above about nuclear testing before March 20, 2006 is a good start for building a case. We'll have to see if we hear more about this in the mainstream media soon.

Jet
 
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I just read the best description and History of the U.S. Dollar I've ever read.
It also talks about the Iranian oil bourse and its threat to the U.S. economy as well which fits in here with kommutrdog's thread.
Here it is:
http://321energy.com/editorials/pollock/pollock022306.html


Here is another article that shows how the U.S. dollar has benefited from the oil price increases. Once you read this you'll understand a little more why Iran's oil bourse is a threat to our economy:
http://321energy.com/editorials/phillips/phillips022206.html

These are both very informative and enlightening articles. I hope you like them.

Jet
 
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islandhopper said:
i'll be sure my cable bill is currentand stock up on popcorn then
Click to expand...
No, you make sure you are registered here, future conscript.
 
Adjusted for inflation the price of oil really is not at an all time high.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Oil/Historical_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm

"But the reality is that the "record high gas prices" are a myth. The U.S. Department of Energy records show that when you adjust for inflation the price of gas is now lower than it's been for most of the twentieth century. Prices are lower now than they were 25 years ago. Yes, they price is up from the 1998 all time low of $1.19, but they are a dollar lower than they were in the early 1980s.
But the reality is that the "record high gas prices" are a myth. The U.S. Department of Energy records show that when you adjust for inflation the price of gas is now lower than it's been for most of the twentieth century. Prices are lower now than they were 25 years ago. Yes, they price is up from the 1998 all time low of $1.19, but they are a dollar lower than they were in the early 1980s."

From a good article by:
John Stossel's "Myths, Lies and Nasty Behavior" (No. 7 — MYTH — Gas Prices Are Higher Than Ever)
http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=448934&page=1
 
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jetflyer said:
I'll go if those beautiful soldiers in your avatar FN_FAL come to my door to drag me in!

Jet
Click to expand...
you want NATO to come to your house and drag you off to fight the war in IRAN. Some really screwed up stuff would have to happen before that would occur...and those UN "hotties" would probably get picked off by a deer rifle or 300,000 before they got too far in their endeavor of going door to door draging US conscripts off to war.

But, I get what you mean. :D

If we go into IRAN, expect the DRAFT.
 
I don't think we'll go in to Iran, just drop some bombs for now.

We definitely would have to draft if we did go in. Wow that would be bad politically for Bush.

So I think bomb-dropping will be better, except I don't see how they'd ensure that Iran wouldn't still start the oil trading exchange.

I also wonder if Iran is financing terror. I wonder if they are behind today's attempted Saudi Arabia Oil Refinery bombing. Iran wants us to take our fights other places and not concentrate on them.
Thank god the bombing was unsuccessful, or the price of oil would have gone up by more than the $2.60 it has already today.

Unfortunately, I'm afraid we're being backed in a corner and weakened. I hope we can prevent the Iranian Oil Bourse without war if possible, but I'm sure Iran won't stop unless we make them. They want more than anything to see "Death to America".

Jet
 
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Before you panic

Which countries will be offering their oil for sale on this new exchange? Any other than Iran?
Who will be buying on this exchange? Anyone other than China and a few others?
I doubt it will have the gloom and doom effect you are predicting.
 
Russia, Venezuela, and Norway have expressed interest in their own exchanges in the past.

The oil would be sold in the Euro, so it would be beneficial for every European country even Britain to buy and sell oil in the Euro.

I'm also sure every country like Iran that didn't like America would also want to contribute to our dollar slide.

Did you read these articles?
http://energybulletin.net/12125.html

http://321energy.com/editorials/pollock/pollock022306.html

http://321energy.com/editorials/phillips/phillips022206.html

Those articles will explain the situation better than I could dream of. There are about a hundred more articles on the web about how bad it would be for the U.S. dollar's power, our INTEREST RATES, our INFLATION, and how we wouldn't be able to fund our deficits anymore. We would see a shift in the American economy we'd rather not see. It wouldn't happen immediately, but it would be bad.

Plus if the U.S. dollar tanks, the price of foreign goods go up the same percentage. That includes oil.

It's no secret our economy is fragile right now. Our government is not going to allow this oil trading exchange to develop.

Read those articles and you just might agree.

Jet
 
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Venezuela's Chavez to Bar Delta, Continental Flights (Update3) Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will bar Continental Airlines and Delta Airlines from flying to Caracas until Venezuelan carriers are allowed to expand service to the U.S.
Flights by AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, the U.S. carrier with the most service to Venezuela, will be cut by 70 percent, said Francisco Paz Fleites, head of the country's civil aviation institute. Venezuela is blocked from adding to its U.S. service by a U.S. Federal Aviation Administration decision in 1995 that downgraded the country's security, safety and technical rating.
``There is a new aviation law and international aviation institute, our radar has improved, as has our control over our planes, pilots and maintenance,'' Paz Fleites said in a television interview, adding that U.S. refusal to upgrade Venezuela violates the countries' aviation accords.
The cutback in flights underscores the deteriorating relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, the U.S. fifth-largest supplier of oil and petroleum products. Chavez, an ally of Fidel Castro, poses a threat to regional stability, say officials such as Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, who told Congress on Feb. 16 the U.S. is seeking a ``united front'' against Venezuela. Chavez, 51, often says in speeches the U.S. is plotting to assassinate him.
The cutbacks, which will apply to passenger and cargo flights, go into effect March 1. U.S. carriers will meet today with Venezuelan authorities in a bid to overturn the ruling, a spokeswoman for the airline institute said.
Flight Plans
``We are working closely with the U.S. departments of State and Transportation to resolve the issue and maintain service for our customers between the U.S. and Venezuela,'' said Delta spokesman John Kennedy. Delta flies daily between Caracas and Atlanta.
American Airlines spokeswoman Martha Pantin in Miami said the airline will meet with Venezuelan officials today and had no further comment.
Fort Worth, Texas-based American has four daily flights between Miami and Caracas, one flight a day between San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Caracas; five weekly flights between Dallas-Fort Worth and Caracas; two weekly flights between New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport and Caracas and one daily flight between Miami and Maraciabo.
Continental Airlines country manager Gustavo Bastardo said in a statement that the airline will maintain its schedule of one daily flight to Houston and weekly service to Newark while seeking clarification from the institute.
U.S. officials are trying to contact Venezuelan officials ``to clarify the matter,'' U.S. Embassy spokesman Brian Penn said in a telephone interview.
Support
Besides U.S. carriers, Venezuelan airlines Aeropostal Alas de Venezuela and Santa Barbara Airlines also fly to the U.S. from the South American country. Lan Airlines also flies between Miami and Caracas.
``Aeropostal strongly supports the decision to suspend American Airlines, Delta and Continental certification for flying into Venezuela", said company President Nelson Ramiz said in an e-mailed statement. ``We are very pleased with the decision and at last we see an effort from the Venezuelan authorities to bring some
Click to expand...

What about these articles.
 
Wow,
I didn't know the Saudi Arabian attempted bombing wasn't a refinery it was the ABQAIQ GOSP (gas and oil separation plant).

This facility handles more oil than any other facility in the world. If they would have succeeded in taking off 2-3 million barrels of oil/day we'd be seeing 100.00/barrel.

Luckily the Saudi's have serious security for the Abqaiq facility.

Jet
 
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jetflyer said:
I wish the attempted coup of Hugo Chavez two years ago would have worked!!!

Jet
Click to expand...
Maybe they can send the goshjet whiners.
 
Here's more info on the attempted bombing of the Abqaiq GOSP:
From the BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4747488.stm

A few interesting quotes from the article:
Saudi security forces have foiled an apparent suicide car bomb attack on a major oil production facility in the eastern town of Abqaiq.

Guards opened fire on at least two cars carrying explosives as they tried to ram the gates, Saudi officials said.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi said output at the facility, which handles about two-thirds of the country's oil production, was unaffected by the attack.

Oil security analysts have estimated that a serious attack on the facility could halve Saudi exports for up to a year.
Click to expand...
This facility processes 2/3 of Saudi Arabia's oil and security analysts say a serious attack would halve Saudi's exports.

Half their oil offline would be about 4.5 million barrels lost from the world's 85 million barrels PER DAY. So this would be about 5% of the world's oil.

We're using 1000 barrels of oil a second right now in the world. 950 barrels a second would hurt!

Remember that "OIL SUPERSPIKE ARTICLE?"

Jet

p.s. a book I recommend about future problems with energy:
A Thousand Barrels a Second : The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World (Hardcover)
by Peter Tertzakian
 
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Energy Alternatives other than wind,nuclear,solar,oil?

There are companies that are working on an alternative to oil energy other than wind, nuclear or hydro motive. This source of energy is controversial and under the scope of the media and most mainstream science. Various patents have been awarded regarding extracion of energy from the vacuum. An example can be found here...

www.magneticpowerinc.com

If generators become available in the next few years that can extract energy from the vacuum, the oil price will plummet. Just the knowledge of this energy coming on line will cause the price to drop in spite of demmand. This energy is usually refered to as zero point energy and it's most likely to shape our world in this century. To make really long term predictions without including hte effect of this technology is foolish. Now, don't expect to pick up the New York Times to read about this.
Most advances in history have been made outside mainstream science (Wright brothers, Tesla, Maxwell, Einstein...) I think this is a big one coming and quietly. Pres. Bush said a few days ago that the US was on the verge of an energy technology breakthough that would startle most Americans. Maybe he is just talking about better batteries and solar panels or may be he has been reading what I've been reading. An attack on oil? Time will tell...
I just don't think that the technology for this century will be a repeat of the technology for the last century.
 
Swerpipe,

I've actually spoken with the CEO of magnetic power, Mark Goldes. He talked to me because he's looking for investors badly. He's very optimistic but they haven't produced yet, and he blames it on lack of investors.

They were supposed to have a zero point energy demonstration device at the end of last year. They still don't have it out. I was very dissapointed because the technology looks promising.

I hope they can get it to work.

Jet
 
It's a pattern

I have heard that. What I think is promising about magnetic power inc is that they also have the ultra conductors which have been independently verified and they could subsidize some of the magnetic generator research. It's a matter of time.
This would be a major shock to the system just in lost tax revenue from oil taxation. How do you tax free energy? How much cash would the government lose?
Magnetic power inc is not the only company in the US or abroad working on this. We shall see...

BTW in the remote chance that this happens just remember to put down a few bucks remember the dot com revolution?
 
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Swerpipe,
You're right. Putting money in this will be very smart. Energy is a several trillion dollar/year industry.

If anyone wants to invest with Mr. Goldes send me a private message and I'll tell him how to contact you.

I really recommend you research ZPE extensively first though.

You have to have a $1,000,000 net worth (why I couldn't invest!) and the minimum investment is $10,000.00

This technology needs investing in badly.

Jet
 
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I agree, when you adjust for inflation, gas prices are lower, even when compared to the early 1980's.
 

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