Forbes: Oil prices to fall...

[jetflyer]

I'm so confused. Forbes was just on CNBC saying oil was going to $35. How can he lie with such a straight, uh i mean ugly J/K, face?

Strange.

The other analyst disagreed with Forbes in the long term, and said oil would go higher because of strengthening global demand and supply not being able to keep up.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Great News: Peak Oil not until 2012 according to Netherlands study

Other studies I had seen by ASPO and ODAC were pinning 2007-2008 as the Peak Oil year. It turns out we have more time to prepare, which is excellent news!

This new study by Rembrandt H.E.M. Koppelaar from Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands is the best study I've seen and is very good news! I was thinking for a long time Peak Oil would come in just 2-3 years, but I think we have more time now.

Koppelaar from the Netherlands considers Country by Country production through enhanced recovery techniques, planned new projects which take 5-10 years to begin from discovery, depletion rates of current fields and projected depletion rates, etc. in this amazing study.

HERE IS A LINK TO THE STUDY:
http://www.peakoil.nl/images/oil_production_outlook_2005-2040.pdf

Koppelaar is grounded in facts and not scare mongering. I just hope he is right. Even if Peak isn't until 2010, it's much better than 2007!

Peak Oil awareness is happening which is a wonderful thing as well. Republican House member Roscoe Bartlett just spoke about Peak Oil again to congress on Wednesday. Here is a link to the transcript posted at peakoil.com:
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic12521.html

More and more people are learning about the problem every day. More and more companies are doing something to make it hopefully not a big deal!
--Shell has discovered a new way to produce the oil shale from the Rockies with a more economical process that doesn't require the millions of barrels of water a day as the old methods required. Unfortunately they are 10-15 years away from making a million barrels a day, so there will still be a hard transition period.
--Many companies are looking to gassify coal for automobiles. Unfortunately this is still a long time away before it too will produce a milllion barrels a day(10 atleast) but it is good that one day it will be producing oil.
--New ways of making fuel from plants is being developed that is better than ethanol from corn.
--New vehicles are being developed that will have much better gas mileage
--There are new electric vehicles being developed that will be wonderful
--New nuclear plants are being discussed in the U.S. and should begin breaking ground soon.
--Etc. etc. etc.

Even with peak oil not coming in 2012, we'll still see hard times economically. The price of oil until 2012 will still be going up. Koppelaar's study says demand growth will be forced to not go above 2% until peak. Currently we've been growing at 3%. How do you limit people using oil? By rising the price. Also he says any supply disruptions will cause wild price swings since excess capacity has reached almost ZERO now.

I'm a lot more hopeful now that I've read this study. I hope alternatives to oil, new technologies and new more fuel efficient cars hit the market quick. I hope nuclear power plants are built. I hope ANWR is opened up very soon. I hope the U.S. finally develops real alternatives to oil.

I also hope alternatives are brought to market quick enough before too many wars are fought for this valuable resource. My biggest fear is future wars being fought are already planned and will be the number one solution to peak oil before looking for others. Let's hope not.

See ya and I hope you learn something from reading the very well written country by country study,

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

China says oil peak in next 5 years​

This article is from China. They say global oil production will peak in the next 5 years, but the Netherlands study says 2012. I hope 2012 is the year and not in the next 5 years. Either way, global production is 84 million barrels a day now and they say oil will peak at about 94-100mbd, which is where the Netherlands study says it will peak. If you haven't read the Netherlands study you should.



Here is the chinese article: http://www.interfax.cn/showfeature.asp?aid=5412&slug=OIL

​

Oil will peak at USD 90 per barrel in March 2006 -
CNOOC Dep. Chief Economist

By Erik Dahl​

BEIJING. September 6. INTERFAX-CHINA - Oil will peak at USD 90 per barrel by March of next year, CNOOC Dep. Chief Economist Zhang Weiping said at conference discussing China's energy needs in Beijing on Monday. Zhang also expected global oil production to peak at 94-100 mb/day during the next five years. ​

"High oil prices will have adverse affects on China's economy," said Zhang. ​

China's expenditure on oil imports could reach or even exceed USD 60 bln on oil imports this year, up from USD 40 bln in 2004, putting "high pressure" on China, said Xia Yishan, Senior Research Fellow at the China Institute of International Studies.

China's annual crude demand is expected to rise by 9.7% this year, suggesting that the country will need to import 135 mln tons this year, accounting for 42.45% of total demand and exceeding last year's figure of 40.5%, said a recent report by the Development Research Center under the State Council.

The country's net oil imports stood at 120 mln tons in 2004.

China is facing oil shortages on the eastern coast, especially in Guangdong province. Crude processing for export purposes has already been suspended until December 31, as part of the efforts to guarantee domestic supply.

Growth of energy demand in China has outstripped GDP growth since 2003 and will face sustained energy shortages if this continues, said Zhou Dadi, Director General of the Energy Research Institute at the conference.

Energy has been put under pressure from both rapidly increasing demand and dismally low efficiency.

For each unit of GDP, China uses three times more energy than the United States and five times more than Germany and Japan. This is due to a lack of economies of scale, an over reliance on high-energy industry and outdated production technology, according to Dr. Bernhard Hartmann, a Vice President at AT Kearney.

Comparing industrial processes, energy consumption per unit of output is between 20% to 100% more than similar practices in other countries, according to David Dollar, the World Bank's Country Director for China.

Industrial production is much more energy intensive than service industries and 52% of China's GDP comes from industry, compared to an average of 36% for other middle-income countries, according to the World Bank.

Residential heating requires 50-100% more energy than OECD countries due energy efficiency standards, according to the World Bank.

Over the next 15 years, an estimated 300 -350 mln people are going to move to cities. Urban residents consume 3.5 times more energy than rural residents, said Zhao Jie, from the China Academy of Urban Planning and Design.

"High oil prices are prompting us to develop new energy conservation measures," said Xia. Saving one ton of oil is only 1/5 the cost of producing one ton of oil.

China has already committed to increase renewable energy consumption to 10% of the nation's total energy consumption by 2020.

China has already set the price of wind power at 40-60% above the price of other energy sources to encourage development, however, renewable energy is still in the initial stage and the technology is still "weak" said Zhou.

Wind energy in Germany is still backed up by coal. For every 1 megawatt of wind capacity, German power companies will install 0.6 megawatts of coal generation as a backup source, said Hartmann.

"Renewable energy can't rely on preferential treatment and higher prices for development. If the technology is not strong, large scale deployment is impossible," said Zhou.

Jet