a milliion lifetimes...
or maybe it just feels that way...
Hiring and upgrades are a cyclic process that are generally in phase with each other. Guys hired 8 months ahead of me can hold an MD11 in Memphis as an FO. However, other than ONE guy junior to me at Subic (FO on the A300), guys in my class (Jan 02) haven't been able to move off the SO spot on the 727. In fact, some classmates who went to the SO spot on the DC 10 have since been displaced back to the 727, although their class dates are at a very future date.
Long answer to a short question...but point is upgrades will depend on growth, retirements, future hiring waves, etc. Looking at someone elses history may not predict yours at all.
Want a "best guess?" Hired this year?
3 years SO on 727.
Year 4....right seat of 727, or Subic/Anchorage widebody FO. Bottom 20% in any case...
Year 5....right seat Memphis widebody....maybe
Year 8-10....727/narrowbody captain.
Year 15....widebody captain.
Your mileage may vary due to driving conditions.
Want to upgrade fast? Go to JetBlue...Airtran. Want to be a captain in 5-6 years at a very stable company? Try Southwest. Want to stick with a (historically) stable environment, have the options to fly almost anywhere in the world, have some good pay/benefits....then this (FDX) is a very good gig. There is a strong case for any of those choices, but don't come here with big dreams because an old buddy got to the right seat of a widebody in 8 months...I'm afraid that (at least for now) that horse has left the barn.
Wrong before...actually hope I'm being too conservative on my estimates.