FEDEX or Alaska?

[FedExFlyer]

Like Albie said......catch a wave and you're in GREAT shape. My gut feeling has another huge wave coming to FDX this summer. We are taking delivery of a ton of jets and I honestly dont think the age 60 thing will happen any time soon.

I was one of the lucky ones in the early 2004 hiring wave.......it's good to be lucky every now and then.

IMHO I think FedEx would be a great move. If you have 15-20 years or more left, I would make the move without hesitation.

Good luck................

 

[USMCFDX]

It is not always about the money. Your sked, QOL, retirement, etc, I think are more inportant.

If it was about the cash, Albie should have been serving me food as an RFO a long time ago.

 

[av8instyle]

IMHO I think FedEx would be a great move. If you have 15-20 years or more left, I would make the move without hesitation.

Good luck................

This is an interesting discussion and I'd like to throw a question out there to the peanut gallery...
I have been at Alaska 6 years. I live in ANC, which is a domicile for both companies. I was hired young enough that assuming I make it to 60 I will retire number 7, yes 7. If you were in these shoes would you still make a move to Fedex knowing you would be leaving an airline where most of your career you would be extremely senior?

 

[Falconjet]

Ok, I couldn't resist so I pulled out my old numbers to see how they stacked up with what I actually made at FedEx so far.

Even being as conservative as I was I still made less than I computed each year until hitting the widebody pay (to be expected since I used only narrow body pay rates).

So even being as conservative as I was I still over estimated the money I would make by 7K in year 3 and 8K in year 4. That is including everything I made at FedEx - per diem, excess life insurance, everything. The numbers are still pretty good, but I don't think they would compare too well to years 8-9 at AK.

Despite the numbers on this website our minimum annual guarantee is only 884 hours (eight 4 week bid months (68) and four 5 week bid months (85)). I usually use about 940 hours per year times the pay rate to estimate the annual income and that seems about right, once you can hold regular lines, as the average line guarantee is more like 72 per month (4 week) and 90 per month (5 week), at least in the Boeing.

Just another reason to use VERY conservative numbers and career expectations when looking at the financial impact of switching airlines.

FJ

 

[Ih8AFYesmen]

This is an interesting discussion and I'd like to throw a question out there to the peanut gallery...
I have been at Alaska 6 years. I live in ANC, which is a domicile for both companies. I was hired young enough that assuming I make it to 60 I will retire number 7, yes 7. If you were in these shoes would you still make a move to Fedex knowing you would be leaving an airline where most of your career you would be extremely senior?

I agree, seniority is life in the airline world. How much of it are you willing to bet that Alaska Airlines will be around when you retire? Again, no one has the crystal ball. We are just dealing with odds here. It's a tough choice and big gamble. If I were a bettin' man, I'd bet on FDX. Billyboy Ayerlines is becoming more unstable day by day. Just my opinion.

 

[AlbieF15]

AV8,

Here's a goofball way to look at this....

Suppose you stay at AK, and in 5 years your company is bought out. 5 years later the merged comany goes T.U. How much would have made/saved/invested in those 10 years.

Suppose you join FDX. 10 years from now we lose our pension. (I know--I know--I HOPE it NEVER happens...) Our international flying is largely subcontracted by foreign carriers. How bitter would you be about that?

Now...in the meantime--where will you enjoy the next 10 years more? What other stuff can you do in your time off in ANC that will offset a loss in either case? Do you want to run a B&B, a charter service, or open a Jiffy Lube? Are there things you could do to secure you INCOME and SECURITY without giving up a great job and great seniority?

Running numbers on spreadsheet is one thing. Those numbers might show at year X the lines cross BUT what happens along the way is important too! For instance--if I'd have gone to JB in 2001 I would STILL be ahead financially as far a pure paycheck/earnings go, as I'd have been an A320 captain for about 4 + years, plus had stock options and profit sharing. However--the flexibility of FedEx has been awesome, I've made "almost" as much in salary, and I haven't ever lost a night of sleep wondering about the future/conditions of my company. I also live close enough to drive to work in pinch. So--the 5 year spreadsheet favored the upstart, the long term chart favored the Cargo carrier, but I've been HAPPY along the way and have enjoyed doing other things besides my airline gig (my business and the ANG...) Its not always just dollars, and sometimes the promise of more dollars later may never materialize. The guys who chose Alaska over United in 1999 "gave up" lifetime earnings...on paper. The reality is AK pilots have stayed working the whole time while their United brethren scrounged for work. The 777 pay rates don't mean much if you never get to fly them...

I cannot but imagine a sharp guy like you living in a place like AK cannot figure out something to do that will keep you happy and fed---even if (God forbid) Alaska Airlines should stumble. They've managed to last for a lot of years, and have a great record, so while ANY pax carrier has risks I think you are in a much better position than a lot of folks. I have several old friends there who I flew F-15s with years ago, and they laughed at the irony of their long term job stabilty while their buddies who went to secure places like United and American were out of work shortly after 9/11. It wasn't their plan, but that's how it worked out.

Rather than find another airline job to try to make me rest easy, I'd keep a great airline job and find another gig in another industry that I enjoyed..

 

[ferlo]

The answer to the "aviation problem" isn't another aviation job. I doesn't matter which carrier either. They all still have the same core problems. ie, what if you lose your medical...

Find life outside of aviation, if you still want to fly great. However, The ability to walk away is an awesome thing.

 

[Ih8AFYesmen]

I keep hearing "find a second career outside of aviation" but what I can't figure out is how do you guys do it? Between flying a full line, doing time in the reserves, and helping my wife raise young children, I for one don't have much time left. I suppose if I want to sacrifice family time, I can possibly start a business on the side but then, I got no $ for that either. Family is why I got out of active duty in the first place. I know... no excuses but reality is what it is. So, if you guys have any ideas, let's hear them.

 

[cgflyer]

I love this job flying boxes that Albie helped me get, and I was making six figures starting year 2, but I think that wave has mostly hit the beach. You're flying at a dream pax carrier getting more sleep in the same time zone.

Personally, I wouldn't leave AK for FX or FX for AK, a "bird in the hand" and all that. To me, money is no reason to bounce between majors. How do you feel sleeping at night vs day? We do get good time off at FX, but I spend at least a day after each trip sleeping or hanging out with my family like a zombie trying to recover.

Both companys are here for the long haul, at least that's the truth today, it may change tomorrow.

If your dead set on FX and have been through the process (it's taking over a year from meet and greet to interview right now) I am certain you can get a MD-11 in Anc on the first bid your here for.

 

[AlbieF15]

I keep hearing "find a second career outside of aviation" but what I can't figure out is how do you guys do it? Between flying a full line, doing time in the reserves, and helping my wife raise young children, I for one don't have much time left. I suppose if I want to sacrifice family time, I can possibly start a business on the side but then, I got no $ for that either. Family is why I got out of active duty in the first place. I know... no excuses but reality is what it is. So, if you guys have any ideas, let's hear them.

Everyone has a story, and everyone is different...but if you are really asking a question I'll give you a few of my thoughts...

First--you cannot take on another "job". What you CAN do is engage in one of your passions, and if one of those passions allows you to make a little extra money then good on ya. Do you skydive? Maybe you could buy a share in a twin otter or C182 and fly some divers out of strip on the weekends. Do you LIKE making or installing cabinets? Working on cars? Doing construction type work? Perhaps you could do some of the thinks you LIKE in your part time. Are you a solid weight lifter? Lots of folks want personal trainers. In other words--don't go looking for money--look for opportunities to perhaps make a little money doing something you already enjoy.

Choose something that you can include your family in during the process. For me--my wife is integral to our consulting business. Her work in and out of pageantry was a catalyst to the whole idea of a coaching business, and (as a lot of successful Jetblue, FedEx, and SWA clients can attest) she's a darn good coach in her own right. When we do a workshop out of town, very often Melissa is right there with me working with some of the clients. Usually the day before or after we are doing something fun with family. For instance--my mom lives in the Orlando area so any central Florida seminars involve spending time with my mom and letting her enjoy her grandkids.

I didn't start Emerald Coast to get rich or make money. I started it to help a few folks and make enough to offset the time I was giving up by working with folks. Well...things took off and we've been very blessed...and we've grown considerably. But my point is I didn't start off thinking this was be huge, but rather it was something I ENJOYED. Success will usually follow your passions...

Now--the next chapter. I have no idea how this one will turn out, but we just bought a huge horse farm/boarding facilty. Why? Well...for my first 18 years of life I was a huge horse fan, and that gene got passed to my girls. Even though I really haven't ridden a horse since college, my oldest daughter has been mesmorized by the creatures since before she could talk. I finally started them on some riding lessons last year, and discovered that this didn't appear to be a passing fad but rather true passion. Well...this horse facility has been for sale for over a year--I made an offer--and the rest is history. My goals for the facility are modest....I dont' expect to make any money on it for quite a while. But--while I am out there working--my girls will be out there working along side me or riding. The joy will come from being involved with my kids in a mutual passion... I think there is potential on this farm to make some money with boarding, lessons, and shows....as well as property appreciation. However--like the other business...I ain't in it to get rich. However, I think if we work on our passions success usually follows...

Now...if you are really are asking for advice...I'll give you 3 more tidbits...probably worth just what you pay for them.

I loved the military. I couldn't be what I am without it. However--you can easily pour every bit of your life and 14 hours a day into a sink that you just cannot plug. Take pride in what you do...but as a part-timer realize you are there to fly the equipment--and there are problems in the force you cannot solve. When I stopped trying to be an "active duty Major" after 2 years in the ANG and concentrated on doing my "niche" job of flying and teaching, life got a lot simpler. I tried to do all I did active duty when I was a part timer--for a while. When I went back to being "F15 IP" and not "Mr fix it" life was much easier and left me some time and emotional energy to tackle other challenges...outside of the force.

Second...dont' be afraid to fail. My wife has a passion for beauty pageants. We bought a franchise and back in 2002-2003 tried to put on some pageants in Alabama. In short--we lost our butts quickly. That was okay--we dusted ourselves off--laughed--and took our lessons learned. A lot of our Emerald Coast success came from the lessons we learned in that failure. Nobody bats 1000. You will swing and miss sometimes. Just try to set things up so one mistake can't take you out financially...don't bet the ranch on 1 great idea.

Finally--and this is personal...tithe. After years of not doing that, I realized before I left the AF that if I was ever going to start the time to do it was "right now". So...when I left active I started. I don't want to preach to anyone on an internet forum, but I can tell you our family has never struggled since we made that committment. We've worked hard--but there always seems to be more than enough to honor our committment and still live very comfortably. (I ain't pefect...I cuss, get frustrated, and do a lot of imperfect stuff. But...you ASKED how folks managed to make it work. I'm just sharing how it worked for us in our house...)

Sorry if we are wasting time better spent saying "Jetblue sucks", "military pilots are jerks", or other standard subject matter. Now back to your regularly scheduled thread....

 

[bclacy]

Albie-
That is some incredible advice...thanks for the reminder. I am retiring from AD in May and start with SWA that same month (thanks for the interview prep by the way!) What you just mapped out is exactly what I had in mind...

BC

 

[Ih8AFYesmen]

AlbieF15, thanks for the advice. Sounds like a man who read "The Purpose Driven Life". I really believe in tithing (though not directed by God), but our management/the devil took more than 3 times my tithe so I can't afford to anymore. I'm not being sarcastic.

 

[jonjuan]

AV8,

Here's a goofball way to look at this....

Our international flying is largely subcontracted by foreign carriers. How bitter would you be about that?

Very astute, Albie. With global trade barriers melting, Fedex airlines could very well be Atari or Colecovision in 20 years. Nothing goofball about it. The global economy will be vastly different in just 5 years, much less 20. Combine that with age 60 and all "Fedex is as secure as it comes" bets are off. Reminds me of Fedex and WN buds leaving for UAL and DAL in 1999/2000.

 

[AlbieF15]

AlbieF15, thanks for the advice. Sounds like a man who read "The Purpose Driven Life". I really believe in tithing (though not directed by God), but our management/the devil took more than 3 times my tithe so I can't afford to anymore. I'm not being sarcastic.

Again--easy for me to preach when things are good about what others should do... I am not trying to dictate your personal life. On the other hand--when you DO find your niche--and things get better--perhaps you CAN move back in that direction. A regional guy tithing 3000 of 30k is hurting worse than a widebody captain giving 25 of 250k. I am NOT trying to dictate terms to anyone. I am just pointing out in my life a lot of success followed the decision. However...I went 14 AD years without making significant contributions so I can certainly relate to your current situation.

One advantage I think that flying cargo has over flying pax is we are paid to be reliable...not necessarily efficient. That means we have a lot more reserves, standbys, etc . We also (generally) fly fewer legs and have (generally) a bit more hotel time. I have always tried to use this down time efficiently. Instead of TV, I strive to get a workout (often skipped!) then dive into whatever projects I have. I completed ACSC some years back on the road and on the 727 panel. A lot of my courseware was designed and written on the road, and I recently redid my audio prep course on a 4 day hotel standby. So--if you are flying 5-6 legs a day you probably cannot compete with my free time at the moment--due to the nature of our different jobs. However--if you do have some downtime on trips that time can be used productively in a lot of ways. It sure keeps me from being bored when I'm on the road...

Personally--I think the next mutli-millionare is the pilot/pilot group that starts on on time, show up when called, solid contracting and "fix it" business. Anyone in my area trying to get anything done has tons of exasperating stories, myself included. I'd litter NW Florida with my fingers if I tried to do any light construction, but for the guys saavy enough to do it I am convinced you could make a killing doing GOOD work for folks at a fair price.

 

[bustinmins]

I understand your position but if it was me I'd say "EJECT! EJECT! EJECT!"

If you're around to hear the third one, you'll be talking to yourself.

Take a look at your company's financial position and then look at FedEx. If you see a reason to stay after doing that - then do so. However, I think you'd be crazy not to accept the FedEx position (if it has been offered).

 

[hyeflyin]

What was Alaska's payscale before the decline? Do you guys at Alaska think you can get your payscale back to where it used to be?

 

[tico]

I have been with Alaska for 5 years and possibly upgrading in 3+ years. I have a good schedule but the pay is not enough to get by on the west coast, thanks to Kasher. I don't mind moving or even commuting for FEDEX. I don't have a crystal ball, but I want better career stability and pay (I know... so does everyone else). Would you leave Alaska for FEDEX?

Here is one way that a guy could look at it....... In the two to three years that the FedEx guys are saying that it will take to be making 130,000.00 a year as a wide body co-pilot, we will still be in negotiations. We work for a management team that does not have that founders zeal that I think Albie was talking about. They are confident that at the end of protracted negotiations, we will be prevented from taking self help by the courts or the PEB. Would you rather live through that or watch that happen from FedEx.
There is no doubt that the grass is always greener on the other side but in this case there just is not a down side.
It is also apparent that our niches that we have always been strong in are being eroded and we are in no position to fend that off. Our operational reliability continues to slip and that in turn prevents us from taking advantage of growth markets. And while the bench marks ,such as casm, that drive executive compensation continue to be met throught the miracles of modern accounting, the real cost associated with running the airline continue to rise. It is very likely that when we do arrive at the end of mediation in 2009 or 2010, we will be facing mounting losses and real lack of profitability.
I think at some point we will be offered up for sale. It will be for our airplanes and facilities not for our operation and none of that spells stability or career longevity for a pilot........This track that we are on is not new. It began prior to 261 and has been slowly but surely manifesting itself.

So if the fine folks at FedEx have asked you to join them and you intend to fly airplanes for a living, you might just want to say yes....If I had the pedigree that would give me a chance at FedEx, and I planned on making my living flying airplanes, I would happily give up my 8 years with Alaska and join them.....

 

[ASH]

Finally--and this is personal...tithe. After years of not doing that, I realized before I left the AF that if I was ever going to start the time to do it was "right now". So...when I left active I started. I don't want to preach to anyone on an internet forum, but I can tell you our family has never struggled since we made that committment. We've worked hard--but there always seems to be more than enough to honor our committment and still live very comfortably. (I ain't pefect...I cuss, get frustrated, and do a lot of imperfect stuff. But...you ASKED how folks managed to make it work. I'm just sharing how it worked for us in our house...)

Here here! I will also stand behind that as a TRUE statement. So..how do you give 10 % back to the Lord, and end up with more in the end.....Kingdom Finances baby. Albie, best of luck to you, I am confident that anything you put your hand to will prosper.

 

[AdlerDriver]

I have been with Alaska for 5 years and possibly upgrading in 3+ years. I have a good schedule but the pay is not enough to get by on the west coast, thanks to Kasher. I don't mind moving or even commuting for FEDEX. I don't have a crystal ball, but I want better career stability and pay (I know... so does everyone else). Would you leave Alaska for FEDEX?

Just curious. Is JL's policy of not hiring someone currently flying at another major (is Alaska a major?) still in effect given his departure from the SCP position? Maybe this whole discussion is moot.

Assuming this is not a factor, Boxboy, do you have a job offer or is this just your toe in the water? Depending on your situation, you might want to pad the numbers in your "ciphering" to include the 1-2 year wait for an interview/job offer if you do try to make the move to purple.
Good Luck either way.