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Feb SWA Class???
- Thread starter qxeplt
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Slug
SWA Line Swine
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2001
- Posts
- 496
bowl games
I think they are waiting for the bowl games to end to sort out the natio............. oh wrong board.
I hope they are simply waiting to see who the last 6 Jan person is and then they'll start calling shortly after that class starts. Of course I've been optimistic for 10 or so months, so my opinion is not necessarily valid.
Slug
I think they are waiting for the bowl games to end to sort out the natio............. oh wrong board.
I hope they are simply waiting to see who the last 6 Jan person is and then they'll start calling shortly after that class starts. Of course I've been optimistic for 10 or so months, so my opinion is not necessarily valid.
Slug
tredding@swa
SWA F/O
- Joined
- Jul 1, 2002
- Posts
- 294
March class....
I got called last night by LL & a PHX CP inviting me to start on March 17th!!!
Can't wait to head out in a few weeks to DAL, they are sending 2 must fly passes for me and the wife to be there on Sunday prior to class starting!!!!
They also commented that the "new" training pay is $4000/mo.... AND they will be covering all costs for meals, uniforms, brain bag & luggage......
and then I woke UP!?!?
Too much champagne, porked out on food and wine w/ a GREAT dinner last night, an over active imagination - all led to a wonderful dream.... I guess it will come true soon?????
Sweet dreams everyone - see you in DAL - who knows, maybe in March??????
Tred
I got called last night by LL & a PHX CP inviting me to start on March 17th!!!
Can't wait to head out in a few weeks to DAL, they are sending 2 must fly passes for me and the wife to be there on Sunday prior to class starting!!!!
They also commented that the "new" training pay is $4000/mo.... AND they will be covering all costs for meals, uniforms, brain bag & luggage......
and then I woke UP!?!?
Too much champagne, porked out on food and wine w/ a GREAT dinner last night, an over active imagination - all led to a wonderful dream.... I guess it will come true soon?????
Sweet dreams everyone - see you in DAL - who knows, maybe in March??????
Tred
RJones
Rico SWAFO
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2001
- Posts
- 374
The last time I checked in Lindsey said I may make that February 3rd class but that the class hasn't yet been confirmed by fltops...this was about three weeks ago. I heard through a friend that they are pulling two planes out of the desert, apparently new ones sent to storage, and that things should be cranking up.
I was looking at the SWA pool list and see that I've slipped to #25 (jetpltrich), used to be #24. If the list is only down to #10, is PTInbound's math still correct?
Happy New Year!
RJ
I was looking at the SWA pool list and see that I've slipped to #25 (jetpltrich), used to be #24. If the list is only down to #10, is PTInbound's math still correct?
Happy New Year!
RJ
Last edited:
AF757Pilot
Finally at SWA
- Joined
- Jun 23, 2002
- Posts
- 66
New Poolie Factor
Not exactly. Back in November, when LL started telling individuals what class to roughly expect, (reference the “Time for fingerprinting” and the “SWA Pool Rat Towels????” threads), I broke out my slide ruler and tried my hand at a little math. I wrote this back in November, but decided not to post it then because it was too long. Now that the question has come back up, I decided to post it. It was written based on the Pool list from 1 Nov, but it is still good enough for a rough hack. Considering that I am just an Air Force pilot, I am taking a big risk in posting my findings. Oh well, here we go.
Fact #1: Our unofficial list has 245 as of 1 Nov.
Fact #2: It comes from very reliable sources that the actual number of SWApoolies is 360. I am considering this number fact, but since this information is kept in a vault in Dallas…….
Assumption #1: All classes have 20 new hires. Historically, they have had 20-26 per class. We all hope they will have more than 20 per class, but that is my assumption during my ciphering.
Based on these facts, #245 is actually #360. This would be a factor of 1.47. (245 x 1.47 = 360). This is very close to the “PT poolie factor” of 1.4979 (reference “3rd Qtr. Earnings at SWA” thread). Can everyone use this factor of 1.47? Only if the extra 115 poolies were spread evenly amongst us. I don’t think this is the case. I think the extra 115 are mostly toward the front. Here is why.
“Duke23” (unofficial #104) was told by LL that he would be in the 9th class. Worst case, that would make Duke #180. (Class #9 would be actual SWApoolies #161-180). So, duke23 would have a factor of 1.73 (104 x 1.73 = 180).
“W8n4swa” (unofficial #85) stated that LL told him he was about 8 classes away. Worst case, that would make w8n #160. (Class #8 would be actual SWApoolies #141-160). So, W8n4swa would have a factor of 1.88 (85 x 1.88 = 160).
I have used this same logic and applied it to the 6 other poolies who posted tentative class date information from LL on the thread “SWA Pool Rat Towels????” Again, this information (except for 1900 driver) is based on what LL has told these individuals to tentatively expect for a class #. The following are the data points:
Unofficial SWApoolie#//AF757Pilot's Factor//Actual poolie #??
245 (1900 Driver)//1.47//341-360
136 (Red Leader//1.60//201-220
104 (Duke23)//1.73//161-180
94 (xmetrojet)//1.70//141-160
85 (W8n4SWA)//1.88//141-160
82 (Cruiser)//1.70//121-140
55 (tailstall)//1.8//081-100
29 (hpaul3)//2.0//041-060
20 (qxeplt)//2.0//021-040
The class in July 2002 was a little skewed due to Stop Loss, but I think we had around 11 from the unofficial SWApoolie list go to that class. That would yield a factor of about 1.9.
I can’t explain the apparent inconsistency in my data points around W8n4SWA. If that person was on the bubble between classes, it would skew things.
It looks to me like most of the 115 phantom poolies are toward the front 1/3. These are not a lot of data points to use, but with a little interpolation you should be able to find a factor that would give you a realistic number for your planning. Someone smart would be able to make a real nice graph of this stuff, but that is not I.
Since writing this, LL told me that I am "on the bubble" for this year. If that statement was based on training 180-200 this year, that would support my numbers posted above. The fact that only 10 of our list got in the Jan 6 class also supports it.
I hope somebody finds this info useful and not too confusing or lengthy. See you in Dallas.
AF
RJones said:
Not exactly. Back in November, when LL started telling individuals what class to roughly expect, (reference the “Time for fingerprinting” and the “SWA Pool Rat Towels????” threads), I broke out my slide ruler and tried my hand at a little math. I wrote this back in November, but decided not to post it then because it was too long. Now that the question has come back up, I decided to post it. It was written based on the Pool list from 1 Nov, but it is still good enough for a rough hack. Considering that I am just an Air Force pilot, I am taking a big risk in posting my findings. Oh well, here we go.
Fact #1: Our unofficial list has 245 as of 1 Nov.
Fact #2: It comes from very reliable sources that the actual number of SWApoolies is 360. I am considering this number fact, but since this information is kept in a vault in Dallas…….
Assumption #1: All classes have 20 new hires. Historically, they have had 20-26 per class. We all hope they will have more than 20 per class, but that is my assumption during my ciphering.
Based on these facts, #245 is actually #360. This would be a factor of 1.47. (245 x 1.47 = 360). This is very close to the “PT poolie factor” of 1.4979 (reference “3rd Qtr. Earnings at SWA” thread). Can everyone use this factor of 1.47? Only if the extra 115 poolies were spread evenly amongst us. I don’t think this is the case. I think the extra 115 are mostly toward the front. Here is why.
“Duke23” (unofficial #104) was told by LL that he would be in the 9th class. Worst case, that would make Duke #180. (Class #9 would be actual SWApoolies #161-180). So, duke23 would have a factor of 1.73 (104 x 1.73 = 180).
“W8n4swa” (unofficial #85) stated that LL told him he was about 8 classes away. Worst case, that would make w8n #160. (Class #8 would be actual SWApoolies #141-160). So, W8n4swa would have a factor of 1.88 (85 x 1.88 = 160).
I have used this same logic and applied it to the 6 other poolies who posted tentative class date information from LL on the thread “SWA Pool Rat Towels????” Again, this information (except for 1900 driver) is based on what LL has told these individuals to tentatively expect for a class #. The following are the data points:
Unofficial SWApoolie#//AF757Pilot's Factor//Actual poolie #??
245 (1900 Driver)//1.47//341-360
136 (Red Leader//1.60//201-220
104 (Duke23)//1.73//161-180
94 (xmetrojet)//1.70//141-160
85 (W8n4SWA)//1.88//141-160
82 (Cruiser)//1.70//121-140
55 (tailstall)//1.8//081-100
29 (hpaul3)//2.0//041-060
20 (qxeplt)//2.0//021-040
The class in July 2002 was a little skewed due to Stop Loss, but I think we had around 11 from the unofficial SWApoolie list go to that class. That would yield a factor of about 1.9.
I can’t explain the apparent inconsistency in my data points around W8n4SWA. If that person was on the bubble between classes, it would skew things.
It looks to me like most of the 115 phantom poolies are toward the front 1/3. These are not a lot of data points to use, but with a little interpolation you should be able to find a factor that would give you a realistic number for your planning. Someone smart would be able to make a real nice graph of this stuff, but that is not I.
Since writing this, LL told me that I am "on the bubble" for this year. If that statement was based on training 180-200 this year, that would support my numbers posted above. The fact that only 10 of our list got in the Jan 6 class also supports it.
I hope somebody finds this info useful and not too confusing or lengthy. See you in Dallas.
AF
AF,
All I can say while reading that post after a night of over indulgence in beverages containing the ever effective ingredient "alcohol" is......... WOW!! At the same time, though...Thank you for taking the time to figure out our tredding water time. I was told that I'm "on the bubble" for this year too.
beechball
Now, where's that floating bar?????
All I can say while reading that post after a night of over indulgence in beverages containing the ever effective ingredient "alcohol" is......... WOW!! At the same time, though...Thank you for taking the time to figure out our tredding water time. I was told that I'm "on the bubble" for this year too.
beechball
Now, where's that floating bar?????
115 Phantom Poolies
OK phantom poolies, it's 2003, and you've been here how long now.....What do you all say we get this list together? How 'bout it? I just got my 2002-2003 Pool Rat shirt the other day, pulled it out of the dryer and smiled; and I'm wondering why you guys don't want to join in with the rest of us. It's been a LONG wait, but I've really enjoyed paddling in this pool. Which, by the way, will go down as the best pool in SWA history.
SWA picked you phantoms based on your personality, so what do you say; let's get to know you. We've all been wondering who you are. Come on in, the water's warm. Maybe a little yellow, but warm. W8n4swa will be glad to sign you up.
Here's a New Year's resolution for the rest of us: Let's let these 115 guys know that it's OK to get wet.
OK phantom poolies, it's 2003, and you've been here how long now.....What do you all say we get this list together? How 'bout it? I just got my 2002-2003 Pool Rat shirt the other day, pulled it out of the dryer and smiled; and I'm wondering why you guys don't want to join in with the rest of us. It's been a LONG wait, but I've really enjoyed paddling in this pool. Which, by the way, will go down as the best pool in SWA history.
SWA picked you phantoms based on your personality, so what do you say; let's get to know you. We've all been wondering who you are. Come on in, the water's warm. Maybe a little yellow, but warm. W8n4swa will be glad to sign you up.
Here's a New Year's resolution for the rest of us: Let's let these 115 guys know that it's OK to get wet.
Updated Class Projection
In my December conversation with LL several weeks ago, she reported I was 7 classes out (about #105 on our list). That was a jump of two classes since I talked to her in Nov. LL told me once the 4th quarter and annual profit were officially announced, the PD/Flight Ops would have a much clearer picture of the first half of 03. Our January calls should be interesting.
I belive that although SWA has 360 on their list, they are finding that some of the poolies have moved on and the real number is actully less than 360. I know 2 guys who SWA may think are in their pool (not on our list), but in reality one has signed a 5 year bonus with the AF and the other is getting ready to start with Fed Ex. There have to be more, and the longer one has been in the pool, the more likely that person may have found employment elsewhere. There will also be some Navy/AF reservists who are just not going to be available this spring.
I ran into a SWA captain friend yesterday and he reported the interesting rumor that SWA may not retire all the -200s this year. Since there are not a lot of airlines buying used -200s right now, SWA may keep several, totally remod the cockpits, and keep them flying doing the Texas shuffle. If this turns out to be true, the net A/C gain this year may be more than 11.
Happy New Year....hope to meet 19 of you soon!
Duke23
In my December conversation with LL several weeks ago, she reported I was 7 classes out (about #105 on our list). That was a jump of two classes since I talked to her in Nov. LL told me once the 4th quarter and annual profit were officially announced, the PD/Flight Ops would have a much clearer picture of the first half of 03. Our January calls should be interesting.
I belive that although SWA has 360 on their list, they are finding that some of the poolies have moved on and the real number is actully less than 360. I know 2 guys who SWA may think are in their pool (not on our list), but in reality one has signed a 5 year bonus with the AF and the other is getting ready to start with Fed Ex. There have to be more, and the longer one has been in the pool, the more likely that person may have found employment elsewhere. There will also be some Navy/AF reservists who are just not going to be available this spring.
I ran into a SWA captain friend yesterday and he reported the interesting rumor that SWA may not retire all the -200s this year. Since there are not a lot of airlines buying used -200s right now, SWA may keep several, totally remod the cockpits, and keep them flying doing the Texas shuffle. If this turns out to be true, the net A/C gain this year may be more than 11.
Happy New Year....hope to meet 19 of you soon!
Duke23
DirtyNasty
Member
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2002
- Posts
- 9
PTinbound
Kool Aid CEO
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2002
- Posts
- 264
All I do is go off to see the inlaws, and all ya’ll start talking about my logic. Now I know I was right when I told my interviewer that I wasn’t smart enough to get in the Air Force! AF brought up some very good and sound points, so my current poolie factor of 1.44 would be an average spread through the pool.
It seems fairly close for me as LL told me several weeks ago I’d have a shot at the 10th class, and 1.44 X 127 is about 182, or the 10th class. Note: My actual number is probably a bit higher than 182 (and as was mentioned earlier, that assumes incorrectly that all 110 unlisted poolies are spread evenly) because there are several poolies even on our list with the same interview date. I think maybe I just got on the poolie list first because I may have signed up first, but I bet at least a couple of the folks immediately behind me in our pool are ahead of me in the real pool.
Now as for those other 110 nameless folks: (It’s 110 based on the Dec 12th list - hopefully a new list will come out on January 7th!) I make a motion that any unlisted poolie that shows up for class in Dallas be barred from any alcohol consumption for the duration of the class. All in favor say “Aye”?
Let’s hope Duke and Dirty don’t know the same guy that signed up for a 5 year hitch. The more the merrier!
It seems fairly close for me as LL told me several weeks ago I’d have a shot at the 10th class, and 1.44 X 127 is about 182, or the 10th class. Note: My actual number is probably a bit higher than 182 (and as was mentioned earlier, that assumes incorrectly that all 110 unlisted poolies are spread evenly) because there are several poolies even on our list with the same interview date. I think maybe I just got on the poolie list first because I may have signed up first, but I bet at least a couple of the folks immediately behind me in our pool are ahead of me in the real pool.
Now as for those other 110 nameless folks: (It’s 110 based on the Dec 12th list - hopefully a new list will come out on January 7th!) I make a motion that any unlisted poolie that shows up for class in Dallas be barred from any alcohol consumption for the duration of the class. All in favor say “Aye”?
Let’s hope Duke and Dirty don’t know the same guy that signed up for a 5 year hitch. The more the merrier!
RJones
Rico SWAFO
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2001
- Posts
- 374
I'm not ragging on your math PT, just got to looking at the list and I calculated a factor of 2.4 x your poolie number equates to your actual number in the pool...so my figures more accurately resemble AF's math, however, I revert to your math when I'm feeling down.
I really don't think we will ever know what our actual number is unless the "phantom poolie's" show themselves.
RJ
I really don't think we will ever know what our actual number is unless the "phantom poolie's" show themselves.
RJ
tredding@swa
SWA F/O
- Joined
- Jul 1, 2002
- Posts
- 294
When will it happen...???
IF you take your Flightinfo poolie # & multiply it by the average of AF's & W8N's factors,
take the result and divide that into the "known" SW PD "actual" poolie total of 360.5,
then divide that number into the total # of pilots currently at SWA (approx 4100),
multiply that by your weight in kilograms,
divided by your birthdate,
times LL's height in inches =
IT WILL HAPPEN WHEN IT HAPPENS!!!!?
HAPPY 2003!!!! I am looking forward to seeing "X" Poolies use the recently delivered Pool Rat towels as you (we) emerge from the sacred waters that we currently have the HONOR of tredding around in..... weather you are in the shallow end, deep end, or somewhere in between - it sure beats some of the "other" options currently available in your career path!
Love the debate - please continue as I am in need of some more stuff to read!!!!
Regards - Tred
IF you take your Flightinfo poolie # & multiply it by the average of AF's & W8N's factors,
take the result and divide that into the "known" SW PD "actual" poolie total of 360.5,
then divide that number into the total # of pilots currently at SWA (approx 4100),
multiply that by your weight in kilograms,
divided by your birthdate,
times LL's height in inches =
IT WILL HAPPEN WHEN IT HAPPENS!!!!?
HAPPY 2003!!!! I am looking forward to seeing "X" Poolies use the recently delivered Pool Rat towels as you (we) emerge from the sacred waters that we currently have the HONOR of tredding around in..... weather you are in the shallow end, deep end, or somewhere in between - it sure beats some of the "other" options currently available in your career path!
Love the debate - please continue as I am in need of some more stuff to read!!!!
Regards - Tred
RJones
Rico SWAFO
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2001
- Posts
- 374
Well actually, I figured the current age of my first child, added to the current age of my second child, multiplied by my age, divided by my wife's age, multiplied by the cost of the loss of my sons school math book, added to the cost of one bag of dog food, multiplied to the cost to fix my hockey skates, times the amount in the pool, divided by the amount of planes SWA has may be the actual number... Man, what's happening to me? It'll happen when it does, just be patient...right?
RJ
RJ
LiveFreeorDie
Large Member
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2002
- Posts
- 224
Repost of "Don't forget Heisenburg"
When calculating pilot crew ratios. Don't forget to account for the Heisenburg uncertainty principle which states "If you aren't certain what you are measuring, go ask the principle." But Heisenburg was a notorious bed wetter. So just multiply your figure by 3 because it is a prime number. Then post something larger than the pool factor distribution ration of 361. That way everyone will be happy when reading your post.
When calculating pilot crew ratios. Don't forget to account for the Heisenburg uncertainty principle which states "If you aren't certain what you are measuring, go ask the principle." But Heisenburg was a notorious bed wetter. So just multiply your figure by 3 because it is a prime number. Then post something larger than the pool factor distribution ration of 361. That way everyone will be happy when reading your post.
Interesting rumor, but I'd be pretty surprised to see it happen. First of all, we never were scheduled to retire all the -200's this year -- that process will last a couple of years. On one of the web sites (either SWA internal or SWAPA -- don't think it's public) there is a list by tail # of when each jet will retire. It's based on when each one comes due for its next heavy mx check (i.e. big $). Fly it right up until it is due the big overhaul, then park it in the desert. I doubt that there ever was enough $ to be had from selling a timed-out old jet to get figured into the calculation... the jets have been depreciated to about zero a long time ago.
As far as keeping them around to do the Texas 2-step... they're cheap to operate because they're paid for, but they're gas hogs in a pretty big way. By the time you pay the cost of the mx check & the "remod cockpits," you could probably get a used -300 from somebody, but that isn't the plan at SWA either.
I've heard a couple of opinions lately that UAL may not be with us in a few months; if that happens, my guess is that SWA will see a significant "uptick" in its aircraft acquisition plans... we're making money, but not a lot at the moment, since there are fundamentally too many seats chasing too few pax right now. If a Chapter 7 BK eliminates a big chunk of those seats, the fares might get back to a level that allows some airlines to break even, and allows SWA to do significantly better than that.
Interesting time to be alive...
Snoopy
Happy New Year!!!
Just thought I'd throw some more excitement into the water!
Got a call from LL today --- I'm in the 6 Jan class! Apparently someone fell out (don't know why) and I was the lucky one to get the call! Don't know if I was the next one on the list or just the first person to actually answer the phone. Actually my wife answered the phone and said it was LL about a Jan class date. I said "Liar" you are just messing with me and went back to my backstroke. But she continued to argue with me as LL laughed in the background so I figured I should answer it... We should all realize that our wives wouldn't joke about something like this!
She didn't mention anything about Feb classes yet, but I would definitely assume that the Jan class is now full. Hopefully the calls for the Feb class will be coming shortly and I will update you with anything I find out next week!
Gotta go now... I've got about two days to get out of my swim trunks, put my stuff in a bag, and get to DAL! Best of luck to all of you!
McC
Just thought I'd throw some more excitement into the water!
Got a call from LL today --- I'm in the 6 Jan class! Apparently someone fell out (don't know why) and I was the lucky one to get the call! Don't know if I was the next one on the list or just the first person to actually answer the phone. Actually my wife answered the phone and said it was LL about a Jan class date. I said "Liar" you are just messing with me and went back to my backstroke. But she continued to argue with me as LL laughed in the background so I figured I should answer it... We should all realize that our wives wouldn't joke about something like this!
She didn't mention anything about Feb classes yet, but I would definitely assume that the Jan class is now full. Hopefully the calls for the Feb class will be coming shortly and I will update you with anything I find out next week!
Gotta go now... I've got about two days to get out of my swim trunks, put my stuff in a bag, and get to DAL! Best of luck to all of you!
McC
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