ExpressJet net income plunges 57.2%

[Superpilot92]

I only wish the best of luck to the Express peeps but sadly it won't work out. Small RJ's have to be way to full way to often to make any money. If anyone passed on a major then I pity them.

OH look another CEO in the making!! Please explain using factual information and not the standard moronic "It wont work" Thanks, I really look forward to your FACTUAL information.

 

[Tarzan]

OH look another CEO in the making!! Please explain using factual information and not the standard moronic "It wont work" Thanks, I really look forward to your FACTUAL information.

I dunno about you. It appears from the outside looking in, that you are scared to death about something. You response with vitriolic hate and venom when there is a comment about ExpressJet that is not to your liking. More ever, you sound as though you're trying to rationalize with yourself about the prospects of your company.

Deal with it bub. Most of us out here would like to see your company's venture turn out for the best. But you have got to get over the sense that you're better than everyone else here. You keep calling others idiot or calling their intelligence into question and all you serve to do is debase your own comments.

 

[say again]

Just learn from Independence, don't make the same STUPID mistakes they made with this project - wish you guys luck!!!

AZT

Oh the painful memories!! I worked for ACA, not Independence.:beer:

 

[Superpilot92]

I dunno about you. It appears from the outside looking in, that you are scared to death about something. You response with vitriolic hate and venom when there is a comment about ExpressJet that is not to your liking. More ever, you sound as though you're trying to rationalize with yourself about the prospects of your company.

Deal with it bub. Most of us out here would like to see your company's venture turn out for the best. But you have got to get over the sense that you're better than everyone else here. You keep calling others idiot or calling their intelligence into question and all you serve to do is debase your own comments.

Hey Bub, I honestly appreciate differences in opinion. However i think its uneducated of you to post information and present it as fact when you know its not. I try my very best never to do that. You continue to post "info" from people in the "know". I think that is uneducated mess. And your analysis of me is wrong again. You see i know where my company stands, i stay informed by all means available. I have never that i know of posted anything that resembles that I feel as though i am better than anyone else. I typically use this forum to help others out. I have helped many people out in many different ways via this forum and its a great tool for the most part.

Is it to early to have a beer?:beer:

 

[say again]

Is it to early to have a beer?:beer:

Its never to early, beer has no sense of time!!!!:beer:

 

[Whiskerbizkit]

OH look another CEO in the making!! Please explain using factual information and not the standard moronic "It wont work" Thanks, I really look forward to your FACTUAL information.

Maybe you should look at the facts. The 50 seat RJ does have to be mostly full to turn a profit.

 

[Superpilot92]

Maybe you should look at the facts. The 50 seat RJ does have to be mostly full to turn a profit.

to this i ask how many full flights have we had? How many empty? Did you look at the facts? What is the BELF for us here at XJT? Our BELF may or may not be lower than some but i would venture to guess its lower than anyone else with this plane. Not to mention this isnt our only source of income. Is it hard to be profitable in this plane? Probably harder than others. Our mgmt seems to think we can do it so we will see. I dont know all the facts and dont pretend to. But i do know there are alot of factors involved in this, its not just black and white like many seem to say it is. just my 2penniesworth

 

[Sarag79]

Is it to early to have a beer?:beer:

Nope! Beer-Thirty on my watch! :beer:

 

[Future Furlough]

Is it to early to have a beer?:beer:

The first round is on me. Er...did you bring any money?
:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

 

[Superpilot92]

The first round is on me. Er...did you bring any money?
:beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer: :beer:

BEERS on ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:beer::beer: :beer:

 

[cobalt]

Maybe you should look at the facts. The 50 seat RJ does have to be mostly full to turn a profit.

first off, I don't get to see the numbers, so this is just my opinion:

- it has been stated that the CASM for branded vs. the CAL express flying is quite different.

-would you not agree that it costs less to get someone from point A to point B without stopping and connecting in point C? if we get someone from oma to ont for $200 on about a 3 hour flight, vs. continental flying that person to houston (2 hour flight on an RJ), paying tons of rampers to transfer bags, gate agents to re board them, and then flying another nearly 3 hour flight to ONT for the same $200. seems like the nonstop would have to cost less to operate.

 

[samballs]

first off, I don't get to see the numbers, so this is just my opinion:

- it has been stated that the CASM for branded vs. the CAL express flying is quite different.

-would you not agree that it costs less to get someone from point A to point B without stopping and connecting in point C? if we get someone from oma to ont for $200 on about a 3 hour flight, vs. continental flying that person to houston (2 hour flight on an RJ), paying tons of rampers to transfer bags, gate agents to re board them, and then flying another nearly 3 hour flight to ONT for the same $200. seems like the nonstop would have to cost less to operate.

Still more cost when the flying is yours and not contracted flying

 

[Superpilot92]

Still more cost when the flying is yours and not contracted flying

Please feel free to explain. Would you agree there is also more income potential when its yours and not contracted?

 

[samballs]

Please feel free to explain. Would you agree there is also more income potential when its yours and not contracted?

Yes, just not with 50 seat RJs on small routes

 

[Superpilot92]

Yes, just not with 50 seat RJs on small routes

You forgot to leave the part in where you explain your reasoning.

 

[Pocono Pilot]

KOOLAID?????

Arent you the one who passed up a job with a major to stay here? Whos drinking the Koolaid?? I merely posted that its not all doom and gloom like many posted? Relax Boss!:beer:

I would still rather work at ExpressJet than for CAL. Have you seen the CAL contract?

But I still am not too happy about what is going on here.

I will try to relax.

 

[Ponchus pilot]

Also the delta flying being done for atcost in LA of all places will hurt them more.

Not true as we cant give other airlines a better deal than CAL is getting or we have to discount the CAL flying as well.

There are already in talks to add an additional 7 planes for DAL in LAx in addition to the 10.

 

[cobalt]

Not true as we cant give other airlines a better deal than CAL is getting or we have to discount the CAL flying as well.

There are already in talks to add an additional 7 planes for DAL in LAx in addition to the 10.

everything I hear is that is only if the deal is for more than 10 planes. and the original CPA with delta is 10 planes. the new deal, which is confirmed and not just in talks, is for 8 more planes. but it's not a CPA. more info on the weekly voicemail

 

[viper548]

Whats up with all the hate from the SKYW dudes?

Well I wish expressjet the best of luck with their operation. Everyone I've flown with hopes it's a success too.

 

[BigShotXJTdrvr]

Well, our CPA with CAL has a block hour rate of a bit less than $1900/hr. That number was derived from published information--the income from CAL divided by the number of hours flown for them in a given period. The actual CPA rate is not public information, so I could be off by an unknown amount. The CAL CPA has a fuel price to XJT of something like $.70/gallon for fuel, but they keep any extra profits over 10%. So them paying for most of our fuel under the CPA is counterbalanced by them also keeping any extra profits from ticket sales too.

So if $1900/hr is historically profitable for us paying only about $230/hr for fuel (figure avg burn of 2500# or 325 gallons/hour) and now with paying all of our own fuel that figure would be roughly a bit over triple at about $720/hr, then our required revenue per hour (to at least equal the profits we derive from the CAL CPA) would be $1900 plus the difference in fuel costs $1900+$490=$2390/hr. Also need to add in our new overhead costs for training/ticketing/advertising/airport services/catering etc. I don't know what that cost is, but for sake of argument, let's say around 10%. That means our required revenue is about $2600/flight hour to make money. Or said another way, we need to get about $52 per flight hour from every passenger on a full flight to make money on our branded flying. Let's say eventually our loads are around industry average of 65ish% that's about 32 people per flight, which, by the way, we have been far exceeding on some routes. That means with 32 pax on board, we make CAL CPA profits or better on a 3 hr flight at an average ticket price of about $243.75, which is a fair price you'll find on our website. Much less if you buy a few weeks in advance, much more if you want to fly in the next few days (we do not claim at all to be a low cost airline).

That's my math, so if we can get an average of 32 folks to show up for most flights, I think we'll be OK. And that doesn't even take into account that we can bleed on the branded for a quite a long while because it is such a small part of our big picture when other areas are more than making up for start up costs.

 

[cobalt]

That means our required revenue is about $2600/flight hour to make money. Or said another way, we need to get about $52 per flight hour from every passenger on a full flight to make money on our branded flying.

thanks for the numbers. better then the "it won't work" posters with nothing to back it up.


for this part I quoted, don't you mean to say $2600/flight hour to equal the current CAL CPA? (vs. "to make money") I know you say it later in the paragraph, but thought it was important here as well since making over 20 million a quarter with these numbers (provided they are in the ballpark) is better than breaking even.

 

[capt. megadeth]

And she wonders why her finace would rather fly than have weekends off at home cleaning her Doc Martins.

Actually, he would rather fly weekends so he can HOLD A LINE, get his PIC time and get the hell out of the regional world. WHY? Because he SEES THE BIG PICTURE! Glad some people don't though.....

 

[acarpe3448]

Just learn from Independence, don't make the same STUPID mistakes they made with this project - wish you guys luck!!!

AZT

Which same stupid mistakes are you talking about?

Starting an airline that operates all 50 seat RJs? - Not a very good start!

This airline will fail! 100% sure! They have no chance of success with their model! I wish they could make it! I really do!

 

[BigShotXJTdrvr]

thanks for the numbers. better then the "it won't work" posters with nothing to back it up.


for this part I quoted, don't you mean to say $2600/flight hour to equal the current CAL CPA? (vs. "to make money") I know you say it later in the paragraph, but thought it was important here as well since making over 20 million a quarter with these numbers (provided they are in the ballpark) is better than breaking even.

Yep, that's more or less what I meant, to equal or exceed the profitability of the CAL deal, all just a WAG with a few numbers that I think are pretty close to accurate. But that $20M per quarter was with 274 airplanes. With 44 in branded the equivalent figure would only be about $3.2M net per quarter. With the new operation we own all the risk and all of the reward. With the CAL deal we have limited risk and limited reward, but a more stable, defined and predictable income, which allows you to take those risks. Word around the campfire is it's all generally going much better than predicted so far and operationally it's been about 97% DOT on-time with no cancellations in the first 6 weeks in business, not mx, wx, atc, or flt ops. I wonder if any other airline has ever achieved that in their first 6 weeks in business.

We are making the other guys a bit upset, I guess. Horizon has this TOOL, one of their station employees, who sits by our gate in GEG all day long counting how many pax are getting on and off, writing it all down in his little notebook. That's all he does ALL DAY LONG! Good grief.

 

[Superpilot92]

Which same stupid mistakes are you talking about?

Starting an airline that operates all 50 seat RJs? - Not a very good start!

This airline will fail! 100% sure! They have no chance of success with their model! I wish they could make it! I really do!

100% Huh So far its working and we are only a few weeks into it. Thanks for your concern though and your factual information.

Oh and i went back over some of your previous posts and you sure have a lot of anger filled posts. Seriously, not flamebait posts, just really angry posts. Hopefully you become less disgruntled and things start going your way. I mean that.

 

[Sarag79]

This airline will fail! 100% sure!

Why are you a pilot? Seeing that you're a psychic...I heard there's a lot more money in that field...

 

[ERJFO]

Actually, he would rather fly weekends so he can HOLD A LINE, get his PIC time and get the hell out of the regional world. WHY? Because he SEES THE BIG PICTURE! Glad some people don't though.....

Once again the "1000 hours PIC = instant job at a major" myth... I'm not holding out for anything and I agree you do need the time but alot of people are trying to "get the hell out". If any of us really saw the big picture we would be sitting on the other side of the desk handing down the concessions and taking the bonuses.

 

[capt. megadeth]

Once again the "1000 hours PIC = instant job at a major" myth... I'm not holding out for anything and I agree you do need the time but alot of people are trying to "get the hell out". If any of us really saw the big picture we would be sitting on the other side of the desk handing down the concessions and taking the bonuses.

DUH!!!!!!!!!!! I never said 1000 PIC gets you the job, but if ya ain't got it, you are 100% guaranteed not to get the job. Might as well get it ASAP.

There are a lot of people trying to get out but what I have found is if you reallly try everything you can to get out, you get out. If you think you are trying and are not getting anything, chances are, you are only trying half a$$ed or you just don't know a soul anywhere. Of course, there are always a few exceptions to this. In any case, it blows my mind how many people have craploads of time that tell me "yeah, I've just been lazy". Well, LAZY doesn't get you a job! I've run into a TON of people like that.

Lastly, you are damn right about the big picture! I guess us dumba$$es will just never learn.

 

[samfu_1]

In light of our entire situation; we were told by the Jim's that we would be down on profit....This is our investment stage. The earnings calls that really matter are at the end of this year.

Secondly, all of you that have hard wood for CAL, take my seniority number over there, PLEASE! PREF BID and the bottom third of pay for major airline pilots; - you can have it.