Expected MESA shutdown?

[flyboyike]

I see this discussion over and over again and I always wonder why people think Mesa would just shut down and liquidate without first going into bankruptcy. Isn't it more likely that Mesa would go into bankruptcy, restructure, and then continue as a somewhat smaller company?

They'd have a hard time securing restructuring financing in this economy.

 

[JumpersAway]

If Mesa dies off, there won't be much, if any, benefit to reap. The airlines are cutting capacity, and looking to "ax" 50 seat flying. The airlines that use the MAG services would simply shed the flying into oblivion. There would be nothing to pick up. However, there could be one small benefit- Airlines that would otherwise lose 50 seat flying may not be as impacted with cut backs, as MAG would have taken the brunt of it.

Sorry to bust anyones bubble, but looks like we are, in the best case scenario, stuck where we are for a long, long, long, long time. Quick upgrades, and a move to another airline are rapidly slipping away, or gone completely, with the exception of a lucky few. In essence, we are now the same as a mainline carrier- no growth, just stagnation and furloughes with no quick change in sight.

 

[ePilot22]

You do know that Air Midwest is no longer around, right?

Sure do. Why buy the 1900s when you can wait for MESA to go BK and pick them up cheap in a liquidation sale? When Big Sky stop operations, Lakes wanted those 1900s which were leased from MESA, but MESA would only sell them, not lease. Lakes said ok, we'll wait. Lakes will also pick up our (SkyWest's) Brasilias when they start to come off line in the fall.





eP.

 

[Minimaniac]

IF Mesa were to go into BK...

Delta would take advantage of their ability to void the contract.

Without the income afforded by the DL contract, Mesa will not be able to secure exit financing.

Mesa aircraft will be sold to raise capital to cover debts.

The CRJ 900 aircraft will be sold, as they have the highest value in the current market.

Look for the Freedom CRJ 900 aircraft to end up at Mesaba or Pinnacle.

Look for the US Airways CRJ 900's to end up over with mother Delta too. This, however, might be a more complicated transaction.

The US Airways CRJ 900 flying will be replaced by another carrier, and not become a capacity reduction. Republic and Skywest will be the two final suitors. Perhaps Republic will try to accquire the Compass 175's, in exchange for the Mesa CRJ 900's in Airways paint. This would give Airways more Embraers and more commonality in product, and it would give Delta a similar benefit, as they favor the CRJ 900.

United will jump on the bandwagon and end at least part of its Mesa contract. Look for Skywest to gain the CRj 700 flying and aircraft. Mesa will continue to operate some of its CRj 200 aircraft for United under a modified contract.

Comair or ASA will end up with the leftover CRJ 200's from United's Mesa flying. These aircraft will be flown for Delta in place of the missing 50 seat Embraer capacity, though probably at a ratio of 1 "new" CRJ for every 2 145's removed from the DCI fleet.

The biggest question is what comes of the Mesa Dash 8's... They serve a necessary role overall, so somewone will pick them up. Perhaps Great Lakes will pick up a new fleet type, or Commutair will get a whole new arena to play in. Unfortunately, i think Piedmont will balk at the opportunity (foolishly).

Mesa will exit bankruptcy at about 1/4 to 1/3 of its original size, with a fleet of CRJ 200's being flown for United under a relatively stable contract.

In 4 years, all of the above mentioned mainline partners will completely forget about what happened, and award new aircraft and flying to Mesa, thus beginning the cycle anew.

 

[CX880]

IF Mesa were to go into BK...

Delta would take advantage of their ability to void the contract.

Without the income afforded by the DL contract, Mesa will not be able to secure exit financing.

Mesa aircraft will be sold to raise capital to cover debts.

The CRJ 900 aircraft will be sold, as they have the highest value in the current market.

Look for the Freedom CRJ 900 aircraft to end up at Mesaba or Pinnacle.

Look for the US Airways CRJ 900's to end up over with mother Delta too. This, however, might be a more complicated transaction.

The US Airways CRJ 900 flying will be replaced by another carrier, and not become a capacity reduction. Republic and Skywest will be the two final suitors. Perhaps Republic will try to accquire the Compass 175's, in exchange for the Mesa CRJ 900's in Airways paint. This would give Airways more Embraers and more commonality in product, and it would give Delta a similar benefit, as they favor the CRJ 900.

United will jump on the bandwagon and end at least part of its Mesa contract. Look for Skywest to gain the CRj 700 flying and aircraft. Mesa will continue to operate some of its CRj 200 aircraft for United under a modified contract.

Comair or ASA will end up with the leftover CRJ 200's from United's Mesa flying. These aircraft will be flown for Delta in place of the missing 50 seat Embraer capacity, though probably at a ratio of 1 "new" CRJ for every 2 145's removed from the DCI fleet.

The biggest question is what comes of the Mesa Dash 8's... They serve a necessary role overall, so somewone will pick them up. Perhaps Great Lakes will pick up a new fleet type, or Commutair will get a whole new arena to play in. Unfortunately, i think Piedmont will balk at the opportunity (foolishly).

Mesa will exit bankruptcy at about 1/4 to 1/3 of its original size, with a fleet of CRJ 200's being flown for United under a relatively stable contract.

In 4 years, all of the above mentioned mainline partners will completely forget about what happened, and award new aircraft and flying to Mesa, thus beginning the cycle anew.

There is just one problem, why would UA want Mesa to operate CRJ 200s? Because Mesa would do it for free? They've been trying to get rid of Mesa for a long time now.

 

[go!ng for broke]

There is just one problem, why would UA want Mesa to operate CRJ 200s? Because Mesa would do it for free? They've been trying to get rid of Mesa for a long time now.

What do your crystal balls say about GO! ?? Liquid or sold as a unit? It has never made any money and their "inflight" mag. advertizes B.B. Mokulele airlines for over a month. KARMA KARMA KARMA


sorry wrong quote

 

[Minimaniac]

There is just one problem, why would UA want Mesa to operate CRJ 200s? Because Mesa would do it for free? They've been trying to get rid of Mesa for a long time now.

Just my opinion...

UAL seems to really be a ship with no one at the helm. UAL will turn the screws to Mesa by taking away the 700's, and in return get Mesa to fly the 200's (which UAL will for some reason decide make great sense at that particular moment) for a management-friendly rate. I just haven't seen United follow through entirely with any threat, nor have I seen them do the right thing. Ever. Maybe it is me, but United had two excellent regional partners with ACA and AWAC, and both were dropped strictly over the issue of cost. As long as Mesa comes to them with a cheap proposal, United will give them some flying.

 

[johnpeace]

I see greed at an employee level in those discussions if you ask me... (like: Am I going to benefit from the MESA demise??)

I certainly hope to benefit from a Mesa demise.

In fact, I hope to benefit from any change that occurs in the industry.

It's a career, personal benefit is about the only reason I'm even doing it.

 

[johnpeace]

Just my opinion...

UAL seems to really be a ship with no one at the helm. UAL will turn the screws to Mesa by taking away the 700's, and in return get Mesa to fly the 200's (which UAL will for some reason decide make great sense at that particular moment) for a management-friendly rate. I just haven't seen United follow through entirely with any threat, nor have I seen them do the right thing. Ever. Maybe it is me, but United had two excellent regional partners with ACA and AWAC, and both were dropped strictly over the issue of cost. As long as Mesa comes to them with a cheap proposal, United will give them some flying.

For how much longer?

UAL posted a $5.3BN loss for 2008.

Do you even think they'll survive through 2009?

I have my doubts.

 

[Dubya]

My ultra-reliable Skywest insider says the RFP is already signed for 50 a/c to take effect upon the demise of Mesa.

My semi-reliable Mesa insider is plotting to set fire to their hdqts. Something about a stapler.

My M&M Mars insider says that M&M's should melt in your mouth, not in your hand.


W