Embraer target price raised due to Comair

[Chosen One]

Man those investors are fast, there hasn't even been a vote. Sheesh.


Embraer "buy," target price raised - update

Monday, February 07, 2005 1:47:34 PM ET
Banc of America

NEW YORK, February 7 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Banc of America Securities reiterate their "buy" rating on Embraer (ERJ.NYS). The target price has been raised from $33 to $35.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company is expected to receive an order for 25 E170s from Delta Air Lines’ regional airline, Comair. The order could pave the way for further such orders for Embraer, the analysts believe. The current valuation of Embraer’s stock is attractive, according to Banc of America Securities.

 

[RichO]

None of the investor sites I frequent list this news. Which site did you retrieve the info from?

 

[8HourPilot]

So IF Comair got these E-170's, where would they likely be stationed?

 

[Chosen One]

None of the investor sites I frequent list this news. Which site did you retrieve the info from?

Sorry about that, here you go:

http://www.newratings.com/new2/beta/article_683635.html

 

[Flying Horses]

This goes to show that Comair execs are going to order new planes, whether or not the pilots and FA's take concessions, I mean pay freeze.

Vote for concessions, and you get growth. Don't take concessions, and still get growth, and keep the "bar" high.

Bottom line, management is just dangling the word growth, in order to try to save money. Don't fall for it, mgmt. has plans for growth anyway. Management is just scamming the pilots and FA's.

DON'T BE YET THE NEXT AIRLINE TO "LOWER THE BAR" AND ACCEPT LESS PAY!!!

 

[chperplt]

The training department has already been told to get ready for a shi!t load of new hires...

Oh.. and the I-Air -200 that CMR "might" get are in the paint shop already...according to the MX department anyway.

 

[skyslug]

This article says they are "expecting" to receive an order. It's not an order yet and may never be an order. They're talking just like the company and the unions are talking.

 

[dojetdriver]

The training department has already been told to get ready for a shi!t load of new hires...

Is there going to be hiring or are they going to dump the 50 seat and replace with the EMB?

Jus tasking.

 

[DDpaysoff]

Speaking of Dojets. From Butrell's mouth, he has not given up on them at Comair yet. This is as of 2-7-05. Wants to get 170 on property first, so common type 190 to be flown after divestiture for somebody other than delta, perhaps Comair itself, and bid for dojets.

 

[CMRoutlaw]

The training department has already been told to get ready for a shi!t load of new hires...

That's the line I heard right before the RFP results were announced last year. We're still waiting...

 

[EMB170Pilot]

Well get in line, CHQ is getting 170s for a while (I believe)

 

[MedFlyer]

Is there going to be hiring or are they going to dump the 50 seat and replace with the EMB?

Jus tasking.

While DL may eventually dump some of the 50 seaters, the E170's are needed to help backfill for the DL 732's. DL plans to retire all 50 732's in the next four years. Right now, the closest replacement is the E170.

Obviously the E170 isn't a perfect replacement, but it's the best DL can do given DL's financial position.

 

[~~~^~~~]

While DL may eventually dump some of the 50 seaters, the E170's are needed to help backfill for the DL 732's. DL plans to retire all 50 732's in the next four years. Right now, the closest replacement is the E170.

Obviously the E170 isn't a perfect replacement, but it's the best DL can do given DL's financial position.

Agreed - that is what I have been thinking for a long while. Grinstein said "we will not recognize Delta" several years from now and this is exactly what I think he is making reference to. The Delta MEC has opened a big enough hole in their scope blockade for Delta to run several alter ego narow body domestic arlines through. Candidly, I do not expect the MD88 fleet to remain safe from replacement by the E170 / E190's. They don't even have GE engines ( a joke for the finacially inclined )

This gives ALPA several big problems. First, the junior Delta pilots are going to realize that J4J is not much asprin against the headaches of the 757/767 guys voting to protect their pay, working conditions and turf. Second, the unrepresented regional guys may well achieve a majority at a future ALPA Board of Directors and use their power to hijack the union like the Delta MEC has done. Third, the RJDC law suit was filed in time to protect the CY96 version of scope. At that time an E170, or E190, would have been operated at ASA / Comair. If the courts force ALPA to roll scope back to what they set up in the mid 90's.....

This is why the junior Delta pilots really need to be asking their MEC if this "ALPA Apartied" scope policy with a bunch of alter ego versions of Delta pulling up to jetways is a good thing. The longer ALPA continues down the wrong road they chose at the 2000 BOD meeting, the worse this gets for them.

 

[FDJ2]

Third, the RJDC law suit was filed in time to protect the CY96 version of scope. At that time an E170, or E190, would have been operated at ASA / Comair.

How do you figure that the '96 contract would have allowed DAL to outsource the E-170/190 flying?

 

[~~~^~~~]

How do you figure that the '96 contract would have allowed DAL to outsource the E-170/190 flying?

The 70 seaters were not limited. Up to 105 seats would have been operated just as the 105 seat BAE 146 was. Take a look at the 96 contract and you tell me.

You must have forgotten just how much of ALPA's predatory attack on members at the Regional level has been a "success." ASA went from 105 seats to 50, with a few 70 seat airplanes grandfathered in. Congratulations, but the method ALPA used to achieve these goals was illegal and the best way to reverse the harm is to put the members back in the place they were before ALPA undertook the illegal action to allocate work to their favored members.

As I have been writing for years, ALPA's blatant failure to represent members at the Regional level has always put Delta's scope at risk. As for the Company, it will not matter. They can place these airplanes on another certificate and mainline guys will join the fray for the opportunity to fly them. Good luck on your bid.

 

[lowecur]

A Comair order would surprise me. Republic just floated 6M shares for $75M.

 

[~~~^~~~]

A Comair order would surprise me. Republic just floated 6M shares for $75M.

Yep, ALPA's actions result in the jobs going outside of ALPA. Better than the non-favored ALPA members having them.

As I have been writing for years, ALPA's blatant failure to represent members at the Regional level has always put Delta's scope at risk. As for the Company, it will not matter. They can place these airplanes on another certificate and mainline guys will join the fray for the opportunity to fly them. Good luck on your bid.

Jeesh the "I told you so"s are coming fast these days. Does Chautauqua / Republic have a sim eval? Sure is a shame Plato isn't over there. Congrad's ALPA on replacing $120,000.00 a year jobs with $19,000 a year jobs outside the union.

Who is going to take ALPA back from those intent on undermining ALPA's Constitution and engaging in conspriacies with management to encourage alter ego outsourcing of ALPA jobs? Dan Ford is the only man I've heard say - "Lets Roll."

~~~^~~~

Edited since allegorical writing is not understood by sensitive Delta pilots who are easily offended.

 

[FDJ2]

The 70 seaters were not limited. Up to 105 seats would have been operated just as the 105 seat BAE 146 was. Take a look at the 96 contract and you tell me.

Fins, you seem to be missing a couple of details in your claim that the '96 contract would have allowed the outsourcing of aircraft such as the E-170/190.

Perhaps you have forgotten that permitted aircraft in the '96 contract were limited to a maximum certificated take off weight of 70K lbs (E-170 is over 70K lbs) and could not carry freight below the cabin floor. The only exception to this was the operation by only ASA of specifically 20 BAE 146 or AVRO RJ85 aircraft.

Your claim that the '96 contract would have permitted the outsourcing of the E series aircraft is not supported by any contract language in the '96 DAL PWA. Haven't we been down this road before on this claim?

 

[DAL737FO]

Who is going to take ALPA back from the hijackers? Dan Ford is the only man I've heard say - "Lets Roll."~~~^~~~

What a slap in the face to those people who actually went down fighting terrorists to be associated with a money grabbing scheme. At the end of the day that is all it, The RJDC, is about.

 

[surplus1]

A Comair order would surprise me. Republic just floated 6M shares for $75M.

I'm just curious. How many EMB170's can you buy/lease for $75 million?

 

[lowecur]

I'm just curious. How many EMB170's can you buy/lease for $75 million?

Is this a trick questions?

I think it all depends on the lender or company leasing the equipment. Just like any borrowing/leasing agreement you can go anywhere from 0 to probably 20% down, and your net worth and credit history are taken into consideration. Having a signed block lease agreement with a viable carrier would also help. If the planes are selling for $25M, then @20% down you're looking at 15 a/c. You can double that @10% down.

Last month Republic sold 5M shares of stock and netted around $60M. They purchased 16 170s, and optioned quite a few more.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Nevermind

 

[surplus1]

Hey Fins,

Don't let 'em rile you. They're just angry because it has helped to keep ALPA's hand out of our cookie jar.

 

[N2264J]

Re: Embraer target price...

I thought my Twilight Zone story was pretty funny. And versatile too. It can be applied to management or ALPA.

That's one thing people will have a hard time understanding if, in their view, the Comair pilots make the wrong decision on Fred's "growth" proposal-whatever that turns out to be.

We're engaged on two fronts: management and ALPA. Personally, I'm certain ALPA is witholding vital and pertinent information from our MEC about Delta's plan for Comair and I suspect, doing the same with the ASA MEC about ASA while we're both negotiating. We can't trust management and we can't trust our union to act in our behalf. I doubt if anyone will cut us some slack on that, however.

 

[DAL737FO]

Originally Posted by ~~~^~~~And I'm running a special today. I'm sending $100 to the RJDC for every insulting post. Keep 'em coming.~~~^~~~

If I thought you had enough honor to actually live up to what you say I would post here all day long, I would love to see you piss your money away.

 

[surplus1]

N2264J,

Looks like you're doing some good thinking. Keep it up.

We've fought on two fronts before. As long as JC and company have the courage we can do it again. I wonder.

 

[N2264J]

Re: Embraer target price...

Looks like you're doing some good thinking. Keep it up. We've fought on two fronts before.

Thank you and while I'm at it:

Since we can't trust ALPA's Economic and Financial Analysis department for information that isn't tainted by politics, I'd feel a lot better if Captain Paul Lackie was the Chairman with his international economic and finance background. A change in the MEC may also have the effect of slowing this process down a little so we're not running headlong into a wall. Management knows what they're going to do and have known for some time. The deadline they put on us is designed to throw us off our game.

Call or Email all the new status reps.