DL's regional partnerships show signs of stress

[jumppilot]

There will be unbelievable hiring. Just because people will leave, doesn't mean Dalpa will give stuff away (Scope). I understand that you are at SkyWest and don't understand how unions work, but it has to be NEGOTIATED. Why again would the 757 be the smallest plane at Delta? The company can't just do what they want, unlike at SkyWest. And you don't think DL will be hiring one for one? How do you know that again? Delta supposedly will be hiring 305 this year, and recent rumors state they will continue to hire for the next 3-4 years. There will probably be more flow throughs to assist with that, and the regionals will be the ones who can't keep enough experienced pilots. Regionals will then start to shrink, and FAA rule changes will make it harder for the Regionals to stay profitable, making layovers have a min of 10 hours (no more stand ups), hiring to have a min of 1500 hours or ATP, etc. None of that bodes well for the Regional industry, and the ATA is lobbying against the new changes now because they know it will hurt the Regionals. You can thank all of the families of the people who died on the Colgan crash for their persistance in getting the rules changed.

After I was hired in 96, almost 3000 pilots were hired in 4 years. Yes, some were furloughed after 9-11, but it proves an airline can hire that many in good times, and if 800 pilots retire each year for a few years, then DL will have to put the hiring mode in full swing. And again, everything has to be negotiated, and almost every pilot I know wouldn't give any more scope away, period. But, keep thinking and dreaming about it, and maybe it will come true someday (in your head).


Bye Bye--General Lee

I don't work for Delta, but it's the same at my airline.

+1

Erlanger,

By the way, when you get a chance, head to a major. It's night and day difference, and it rocks. Why sell yourself short? Hiring will pick up in just a couple years - numbers don't lie and scope isn't going anywhere unless our companies are in BK court.

 

[ePilot22]

Delta supposedly will be hiring 305 this year, and recent rumors state they will continue to hire for the next 3-4 years. There will probably be more flow throughs to assist with that, and the regionals will be the ones who can't keep enough experienced pilots. Regionals will then start to shrink, and FAA rule changes will make it harder for the Regionals to stay profitable, making layovers have a min of 10 hours (no more stand ups), hiring to have a min of 1500 hours or ATP, etc. None of that bodes well for the Regional industry, and the ATA is lobbying against the new changes now because they know it will hurt the Regionals.

So where is mainline going to hire from in 3-4 years? Or in 2021 when Delta is losing +800 pilots a year?

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You're so proud to be short sighted.





eP.

 

[kellwolf]

So where is mainline going to hire from in 3-4 years? Or in 2021 when Delta is losing +800 pilots a year?

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You're so proud to be short sighted.

It's kinda like having a big bill coming up but you don't have the money to pay. Just because you don't know where the money's coming from doesn't mean it makes no sense. It does, you just have a dilemma. Same with Delta and hiring. Could the Delta guys and gals give up more scope? They COULD, but I would hope if they do it's because they have the company over a barrel and can write their own check. I don't know what's gonna happen with the industry in the next 5 years much less what's gonna happen between now and 2021. What I DO know is General Lee is correct in saying Delta can't just do what they want. They can't say "Well, we're losing 800 pilots this year, so we're gonna put the 737-1000 routes on the CRJ-2500 operated by Skywest dba ASA dba Comari dba Bob's Regional Outlet." The scope clause in the pilot contract is what prevents them from doing it. Unless that's re-negotiated between now and then, Delta management may have a staffing problem in 11 years. There's also other places than the regionals to get pilots. Maybe by then it'll actually be attractive for military pilots to leave the military (assuming everything isn't UAV by then). 135 guys aren't going to go away, and there IS precedent set for hiring guys with wet ink on their commercial tickets into the right seat of a major. Look back at the 1960s. All of those are options.

 

[CRJFlyer]

As one of the leaders in giving up scope..

I wouldn't be telling everyone how great Delta will be at "saving" scope and sticking up for the scope issue.. I agree that it will be harder for Delta to get more scope concessions, but I wouldn't go around saying how "steadfast and great Delta pilots are in protecting scope going forward"..You all aren't exactly the poster child for protecting mainline jobs when it comes to scope issues.

And that pretty much goes for all mainline carriers... If you look at the back of USAirways inflight mag. There are as many or more regional a/c on property as there are mainline a/c...How many jobs "could that be at mainline?" I'd guess 33-50% larger pilot force.

Hopefully you are all proven correct, and can somehow reverse the scope trend in the mainline pilots favor..

BTW I have no dog in this fight, I swore of 121 flying 5 years ago.. Career potential just wasn't there..

 

[Full of LUV]

As one of the leaders in giving up scope..

I wouldn't be telling everyone how great Delta will be at "saving" scope and sticking up for the scope issue.. I agree that it will be harder for Delta to get more scope concessions, but I wouldn't go around saying how "steadfast and great Delta pilots are in protecting scope going forward"..You all aren't exactly the poster child for protecting mainline jobs when it comes to scope issues.

And that pretty much goes for all mainline carriers... If you look at the back of USAirways inflight mag. There are as many or more regional a/c on property as there are mainline a/c...How many jobs "could that be at mainline?" I'd guess 33-50% larger pilot force.

Hopefully you are all proven correct, and can somehow reverse the scope trend in the mainline pilots favor..

BTW I have no dog in this fight, I swore of 121 flying 5 years ago.. Career potential just wasn't there..

With crew rest rules and pilot experience requirements changing for 121 ops, you may just see that the costs of running a regional outfit are not much different than hiring a new pilot at mainline.
Look how the majors have been stripped over the past few years, pension....gone, paycuts......installed, pbs........installed. Now the main differences in regionals and majors is the pay and if the maket can support a 737 or 757 the numbers may just prove that running 4 rj's instead will cost you more.
Bottom line, regional pilots/operations are getting too expensive to justify their existence.

 

[johnsonrod]

So where is mainline going to hire from in 3-4 years? Or in 2021 when Delta is losing +800 pilots a year?

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You're so proud to be short sighted.





eP.

Short sighted? I don't know about you, but I don't wish for the regionals (like my airline) to get larger planes. I want to get away from the lower pay and benefits, but I guess you don't. You must be a lifer. I think General Lee is right about not having to give up scope to cover mainline's shortfalls. I guess they will have to put larger planes on certain routes and offer better wages to attract better applicants, but that doesn't mean DALPA has to give anything back to the company. Those upcoming years will be hiring boons for regional pilots, but I hope to be on my way well before 2021. If you want to stick around the regionals and hope for larger planes with the same low pay and crappy benefits, go right ahead. Talk about being short sighted! Go get your degree for god's sake and stop drinking and driving.

 

[ePilot22]

Short sighted? I don't know about you, but I don't wish for the regionals (like my airline) to get larger planes. I want to get away from the lower pay and benefits, but I guess you don't. You must be a lifer. I think General Lee is right about not having to give up scope to cover mainline's shortfalls. I guess they will have to put larger planes on certain routes and offer better wages to attract better applicants, but that doesn't mean DALPA has to give anything back to the company. Those upcoming years will be hiring boons for regional pilots, but I hope to be on my way well before 2021. If you want to stick around the regionals and hope for larger planes with the same low pay and crappy benefits, go right ahead. Talk about being short sighted! Go get your degree for god's sake and stop drinking and driving.

Still in love with the General, I see. How does his ass smell?





eP.

 

[ePilot22]

It's kinda like having a big bill coming up but you don't have the money to pay. Just because you don't know where the money's coming from doesn't mean it makes no sense. It does, you just have a dilemma. Same with Delta and hiring. Could the Delta guys and gals give up more scope? They COULD, but I would hope if they do it's because they have the company over a barrel and can write their own check. I don't know what's gonna happen with the industry in the next 5 years much less what's gonna happen between now and 2021. What I DO know is General Lee is correct in saying Delta can't just do what they want. They can't say "Well, we're losing 800 pilots this year, so we're gonna put the 737-1000 routes on the CRJ-2500 operated by Skywest dba ASA dba Comari dba Bob's Regional Outlet." The scope clause in the pilot contract is what prevents them from doing it. Unless that's re-negotiated between now and then, Delta management may have a staffing problem in 11 years. There's also other places than the regionals to get pilots. Maybe by then it'll actually be attractive for military pilots to leave the military (assuming everything isn't UAV by then). 135 guys aren't going to go away, and there IS precedent set for hiring guys with wet ink on their commercial tickets into the right seat of a major. Look back at the 1960s. All of those are options.

Where did I mention scope?




eP.

 

[damnflyboy]

I don't agree with your "REGIONALS will fly all Domestic" krap. No, the pilots at the legacies will NOT allow any more scope erosion, unless a BK judge leads it. That is the only way for regionals to get anything larger than the current 76 seats at most legacies. Legacy pilots have pay rates for planes over 76 seats now. I don't know ANYONE that would give anymore Scope away. The pilots that would have done that just retired a few years ago, and they had been only flying INTL flights since before the RJs even started flying the domestic routes. They didn't even know what RJs were all about. Again, they are gone now.

Instead of wishing for larger planes, why don't you change gears and wish to get hired by a Major someday? Do you not want to give up your cushy left seat in an RJ? Did you not go to College? Do you have a lot of DWI's? What is your deal? If you don't have the above, then apply and try to get hired with a Major. Things will pick up eventually, and try not to be so pessimistic.


Bye Bye--General Lee

General Lee - I hope you're right.

 

[rene]

It may be "old news", but it made the news.

no1pilot2000, here are my thoughts...as void as they may be.

The Legacies will do whatever it takes to compete in a world-wide market (i.e. Open Skies Agreement).

The whip-sawing of multiple regional carriers by the Legacies has in effect undermined the power of unions. For instance: Having 5 separate regional carriers as sub-contractors resurrects each as a virtual individual employee (union or not), thus an embedded dimension of free market competition.

The more people you have bid for the flying, the more competition for the flying...the less you have to pay in the end for that product. It's like Mexicans in a Home Depot parking lot. The more day-laborers you have, the more the hourly rate falls.

"If we pay you more for your skill, our airline will die and you will be without a job." Sound familiar, anyone?

Here's what I expect to happen:

Legacies will exclusively fly large capacity, long haul.

The Regionals who survived this economic downturn will consolidate and fly nationally under legacy colors, competing with Southwest/Airtran/Jetblue. Larger equipment flown by "regionals (now nationals)" will be decided by the airlines, shareholders, and the free market (not scope limits set by pilot contracts).


Does anyone have a brighter outlook? I'm a pessimist because all it takes is one carrier to get the ball rolling down $hi+'s hill. Unfortunately, the rest will have to follow.

I think you have it right except for one thing. Network carriers will never allow regional carriers to merge consolidate or get stronger in every way. ASA/Sky West was an last ditch exception under the old school Delta leadership. It would and could never happen today. Comair and Expressjet are as good as dead. I would also watch out for Mesaba and Pinnacle. Republic has decided on a very risky strategy of competing with them rather than "partnering" with them and may run out of cash. Mesa will come out of bankruptcy soon and will compete aggressively for a bigger piece in this chaotic pie. The first step for Mesa will be an extention with Airways.

In anycase it will be interesting to watch this "movie" unfold. But pessimism, at least for high cost, unionized, mature regional airlines should be at an all time high. Sell short.