DL's regional partnerships show signs of stress

[johnsonrod]

So where is mainline going to hire from in 3-4 years? Or in 2021 when Delta is losing +800 pilots a year?

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You're so proud to be short sighted.





eP.

Short sighted? I don't know about you, but I don't wish for the regionals (like my airline) to get larger planes. I want to get away from the lower pay and benefits, but I guess you don't. You must be a lifer. I think General Lee is right about not having to give up scope to cover mainline's shortfalls. I guess they will have to put larger planes on certain routes and offer better wages to attract better applicants, but that doesn't mean DALPA has to give anything back to the company. Those upcoming years will be hiring boons for regional pilots, but I hope to be on my way well before 2021. If you want to stick around the regionals and hope for larger planes with the same low pay and crappy benefits, go right ahead. Talk about being short sighted! Go get your degree for god's sake and stop drinking and driving.

 

[ePilot22]

Short sighted? I don't know about you, but I don't wish for the regionals (like my airline) to get larger planes. I want to get away from the lower pay and benefits, but I guess you don't. You must be a lifer. I think General Lee is right about not having to give up scope to cover mainline's shortfalls. I guess they will have to put larger planes on certain routes and offer better wages to attract better applicants, but that doesn't mean DALPA has to give anything back to the company. Those upcoming years will be hiring boons for regional pilots, but I hope to be on my way well before 2021. If you want to stick around the regionals and hope for larger planes with the same low pay and crappy benefits, go right ahead. Talk about being short sighted! Go get your degree for god's sake and stop drinking and driving.

Still in love with the General, I see. How does his ass smell?





eP.

 

[ePilot22]

It's kinda like having a big bill coming up but you don't have the money to pay. Just because you don't know where the money's coming from doesn't mean it makes no sense. It does, you just have a dilemma. Same with Delta and hiring. Could the Delta guys and gals give up more scope? They COULD, but I would hope if they do it's because they have the company over a barrel and can write their own check. I don't know what's gonna happen with the industry in the next 5 years much less what's gonna happen between now and 2021. What I DO know is General Lee is correct in saying Delta can't just do what they want. They can't say "Well, we're losing 800 pilots this year, so we're gonna put the 737-1000 routes on the CRJ-2500 operated by Skywest dba ASA dba Comari dba Bob's Regional Outlet." The scope clause in the pilot contract is what prevents them from doing it. Unless that's re-negotiated between now and then, Delta management may have a staffing problem in 11 years. There's also other places than the regionals to get pilots. Maybe by then it'll actually be attractive for military pilots to leave the military (assuming everything isn't UAV by then). 135 guys aren't going to go away, and there IS precedent set for hiring guys with wet ink on their commercial tickets into the right seat of a major. Look back at the 1960s. All of those are options.

Where did I mention scope?




eP.

 

[damnflyboy]

I don't agree with your "REGIONALS will fly all Domestic" krap. No, the pilots at the legacies will NOT allow any more scope erosion, unless a BK judge leads it. That is the only way for regionals to get anything larger than the current 76 seats at most legacies. Legacy pilots have pay rates for planes over 76 seats now. I don't know ANYONE that would give anymore Scope away. The pilots that would have done that just retired a few years ago, and they had been only flying INTL flights since before the RJs even started flying the domestic routes. They didn't even know what RJs were all about. Again, they are gone now.

Instead of wishing for larger planes, why don't you change gears and wish to get hired by a Major someday? Do you not want to give up your cushy left seat in an RJ? Did you not go to College? Do you have a lot of DWI's? What is your deal? If you don't have the above, then apply and try to get hired with a Major. Things will pick up eventually, and try not to be so pessimistic.


Bye Bye--General Lee

General Lee - I hope you're right.

 

[rene]

It may be "old news", but it made the news.

no1pilot2000, here are my thoughts...as void as they may be.

The Legacies will do whatever it takes to compete in a world-wide market (i.e. Open Skies Agreement).

The whip-sawing of multiple regional carriers by the Legacies has in effect undermined the power of unions. For instance: Having 5 separate regional carriers as sub-contractors resurrects each as a virtual individual employee (union or not), thus an embedded dimension of free market competition.

The more people you have bid for the flying, the more competition for the flying...the less you have to pay in the end for that product. It's like Mexicans in a Home Depot parking lot. The more day-laborers you have, the more the hourly rate falls.

"If we pay you more for your skill, our airline will die and you will be without a job." Sound familiar, anyone?

Here's what I expect to happen:

Legacies will exclusively fly large capacity, long haul.

The Regionals who survived this economic downturn will consolidate and fly nationally under legacy colors, competing with Southwest/Airtran/Jetblue. Larger equipment flown by "regionals (now nationals)" will be decided by the airlines, shareholders, and the free market (not scope limits set by pilot contracts).


Does anyone have a brighter outlook? I'm a pessimist because all it takes is one carrier to get the ball rolling down $hi+'s hill. Unfortunately, the rest will have to follow.

I think you have it right except for one thing. Network carriers will never allow regional carriers to merge consolidate or get stronger in every way. ASA/Sky West was an last ditch exception under the old school Delta leadership. It would and could never happen today. Comair and Expressjet are as good as dead. I would also watch out for Mesaba and Pinnacle. Republic has decided on a very risky strategy of competing with them rather than "partnering" with them and may run out of cash. Mesa will come out of bankruptcy soon and will compete aggressively for a bigger piece in this chaotic pie. The first step for Mesa will be an extention with Airways.

In anycase it will be interesting to watch this "movie" unfold. But pessimism, at least for high cost, unionized, mature regional airlines should be at an all time high. Sell short.

 

[damnflyboy]

This industry is unbelievable. I've never cried myself to sleep so much from worry. I saw a guy selling hot-dogs downtown. He looked happy. I wonder how much he makes.

 

[B727FA]

There will probably be more flow throughs to assist with that, and the regionals will be the ones who can't keep enough experienced pilots. Regionals will then start to shrink, Bye Bye--General Lee

Flow-through is only a FLOW BACK...never more.

And simply a lack of crews has NEVER made airlines shrink...they just JR Man people and/or up the line value.

 

[johnpeace]

With crew rest rules and pilot experience requirements changing for 121 ops, you may just see that the costs of running a regional outfit are not much different than hiring a new pilot at mainline.

I'm pretty sure new FOs at DAL cost the company a LOT more than new FOs cost ASA or Skywest.

Nevermind the 10 year captain sitting next to him...

The crew experience requirements aren't going to drive up costs, it'll just be more experienced pilots coming to work for the low starting salaries to secure their seats (just like it used to be).

 

[CRJFlyer]

Trust me, I'm all for the demise of some lower tier regionals. (if there is a way to differentiate between them). My pt.121 career was severely sidetracked due to the timely whipsaws and subpar contracts that came about to the detriment of my carrier.

I hope that the majors can figure out a way to reverse the trend..(so I can fly home on mainline equipment instead of the window seat in an rj)..I just don't think guys like "the general" have a leg to stand on when it comes to sounding off about protecting scope.

Actions speak louder than words. When the actions represent what he is saying, then maybe I can believe his nonsense. Until then, his pilot group and many others are just the shortsighted group that gave away the house.

 

[Flyer1015]

Trust me, I'm all for the demise of some lower tier regionals. (if there is a way to differentiate between them). My pt.121 career was severely sidetracked due to the timely whipsaws and subpar contracts that came about to the detriment of my carrier.

Enlighten me please. What's your story?

 

[Erlanger]

Trust me, I'm all for the demise of some lower tier regionals. (if there is a way to differentiate between them). My pt.121 career was severely sidetracked due to the timely whipsaws and subpar contracts that came about to the detriment of my carrier.

Enlighten me please. What's your story?

I want to hear this too.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Air India from SEA-MCO.

If that IS true, then it will be Air India planes flown by US pilots. India doesn't have enough pilots to even fly their own planes, and it will only get worse for them down the road.

cliff
LFW

 

[CRJFlyer]

Erlanger, I assume you worked for CMR.. I did too and most likely at the same time.. A few companies come to mind... remember CHQ negotiations a year or two after ours. I had a friend giving me a play by play during the roadshows. I know what was said by their MEC to get that contract passed. It had to do with SJS, upgrades and "don't worry about the FO payrate because you'll all be Captains within a year".

At the moment I would be a 9 yr. FO at $43 an hour. More than glad I left back in '06.

For mainline to get any scope protection to start going in their favor, regionals will have to shrink..Not saying this is going to happen, but for scope relaxation to do a 180, like "the general" envisions, some regionals may fall. IE Mesa. Not due to scope, but due to Delta shifting their plans.

Personally I don't think scope protection will ever be better than it currently is. I don't think mainline will get a/c back to 50 seats or reduce the # of 76 seaters..... Unfortunately this will be the status quo until the next economic downturn and more scope protection is given up by mainline pilots.

So for general lee to say how strong Delta will be at protecting scope I say..."Talk with your actions not with your words"..because past actions are only an indication of future performance. I hope General is proven right and mainline grows and more jobs are created. And I also hope a regional never sees a 100seat a/c on property.

Like I said, I've been out of the 121 world for nearly 5 years. Don't miss the whipsawing, low pay etc, just for a chance that I may get one of the 300 spots for 10,000 pilots every 4 years..

Just passing through...take care

 

[no1pilot2000]

In the next 5 to 10 years, or even 10 to 20 years, does anyone envision some regional airline(s) going out of business or one regional airline taking over more flying from another regional? Or, will the regional airlines flying now be around in the extended future?

 

[Erlanger]

In the next 5 to 10 years, or even 10 to 20 years, does anyone envision some regional airline(s) going out of business or one regional airline taking over more flying from another regional? Or, will the regional airlines flying now be around in the extended future?

For whatever you think his opinion is worth, Jerry Atkin of Skywest says he believes there will be 2 or 3 "super" regionals (his words) in the next 10 years.